MVN - Most Valuable Network

A.J. Burnett Pitch Analysis - Then and Now

It is my pleasure to bring the first edition of another feature to the Jays Nest: detailed pitch analysis. Now installed at most parks in major league baseball, the pitch f/x system tracks the release point, velocity, and break of every pitch thrown. In combination with the play by play data, it makes a whole new level of analysis possible. Who has the best curveball? Who loves to hit sliders? Who gets the best calls from the umpire? It’s a brand new world for statheads and fans who want to know more.

In case you haven’t noticed, A.J. Burnett has been amazing since his return from the DL, posting a 1.90 ERA over 6 starts. Except for his injured start and a rough first month, he has had an amazing season. I’m going to compare Thursday’s gem against the Yankees (8 innings, 4 hits, 1 walk, 1 run, 120 pitches) with one of his shaky performances earlier in the year against the Tigers (5 1/3 innings, 7 hits, 1 walk, 4 runs, 95 pitches). Let’s see what the difference is between A.J. then and now. (Click on the charts to enlarge).

1) Location

 

I tweaked the location a little- a nice feature of pitch f/x is that it measures the strike zone for each batter. I think it’s more important where in the zone the pitches are than the actual physical location, so each pitch is adjusted to the % height of the batters strike zone. 0 is at the knees, and 100 just below the letters. The Horizontal zone is defined as it’s actually called, a foot either way from the middle of the plate. Burnett actually threw 5 changeups in his first start as well, but for some reason the pitch f/x was having trouble recording them.

In his early-season start, Burnett left more fastballs high in the zone and floated more curveballs down the middle. Now his breaking pitches are biting the lower half or else missing just low, which is incredibly hard to lay off with that much break. Also notice that A.J. busting just off the inside edge of the plate (or painting the outside corner for the Yankee’s lefties). In April there there are two noticable white lines down sides of the plate that he didn’t touch all night.

2) Release Point

 

This data has been measured from different places throughout the year, but you can still tell a lot from the consistency and relative release points of pitches.

Ever heard of getting on top of a curve ball? That’s what Burnett is not doing in the first graph. He is releasing his curveball lower than his fastball and slipping off the side of it. It looks like he just doesn’t have a feel for it yet and is trying to yank it sideways. We’ll see how that affects it’s break later.

Last night, it was the exact opposite. The release points for his curveballs are consistently higher than his fastballs. His fastballs and curves also overlap more horizontally. If pitches are coming from two different arm slots, you’re tipping them to batters.

3) Pitch Movement

 

For these charts, think of the middle as where a ball that spin was not acting on would go. Although fastballs don’t actually rise, they have a lot of backspin on them which keeps them “up” compared to a ball with no or less spin, like a forkball or splitter.

Here we can see the effect of getting on top of his curveball. When he does, it actually has 2-3 more inches of horizontal movement. Also notice how A.J.’s two seam and four seam fastball are clearly defined. That helps with his control as well; he can start pitches off the plate and have them dart back in or start them over the plate and end up off the plate rather than everything just bleeding together.

4) Velocity

 

And on top of everything, now that A.J. is in mid-season form, he throws an average 1-2 mph faster, and maintains that velocity much better throughout the game. Throwing 98+ in the 8th inning is just nasty, compared to struggling to reach 95 in the 5th.

All in all, I find these results a lot more violent than I would have expected. In every aspect of his game, A.J. is just a different pitcher now. Do you have any questions about the Jays pitching staff, or comparisons you would like done? Let me know. I’m just getting started with this data and should be able to do more and more once I get it organized.

This entry was posted on Friday, September 14th, 2007 at 3:47 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.