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Jeff Francis off to a Rocky Start in the World Series

This just in! Taking 13 days off between starts might not be such a good idea for a pitcher. Six pitches and two extra-base hits into the first game of the World Series, it became pretty obvious that Jeff “Boomer” Francis did not have his best stuff. What was supposed to be a coming out party on national TV for the Canadian ace quickly turned into a laugher, as Francis allowed 6 runs in 4 innings off of 10 hits and 3 walks. As the Red Sox reached double digits for the third time in as many games, Tim McCarver’s talking points about Canadian talent were quickly reduced to how good Larry Walker used to be and how crazy and violent hockey is. Sigh.

With any luck, the Canadian Kid will get another chance at being the first Canuck to win a World Series game, but it’s going to take more than he brought to the mound tonight. Not that he was alone in being brutalized by Boston’s red-hot offence; rookie Franklin Morales allowed 7 earned runs in 2/3 of an inning (for a sparkling ERA of 94.50), largely due to Ryan Speier achieving a historic low by entering with the bases loaded and walking three consecutive batters. Cue the hysteria, but this is still going to be a good series and Beckett was untouchable anyway.

The key to tonight’s shelling was a lack of movement on Francis’ pitches; in fact, his location wasn’t bad. Although he allowed an uncharacteristic number of walks, he kept the ball down and much of the damage was done in pitcher’s counts when he was unable to finish Boston hitters off.

Here’s how his pitches were moving tonight, as seen from the batter’s perspective. The middle of the chart is a mythical pitch not affected by spin (fastballs “rise” in comparison due to backspin). The white dots are a perfectly straight fastball (they were intentional balls), so you can see how much his sinking fastball (red), changeup (green) and curve (blue) moved in comparison.

Out of context that doesn’t really mean a lot, so here’s his pitch movement when he’s got his good stuff. These pitches are taken from his outing on October 3 when he shut down the Phillies, allowing only 4 hits through 6 innings and striking out 8:

The major differences between that start and what he brought to Fenway:

1. His curveball is breaking about 4 more inches both down and away.
2. There is more ’slider’ movement to his changeup and it is much more consistent.
3. His fastball is sinking and tailing less, but its horizontal movement is varying a lot more from pitch to pitch.

For a full scouting report on Francis’ stuff and what it’s supposed to do, check out USA Today. One of the things Jeff is known for is a very consistent arm slot, which helps his delivery be deceptive (since it’s impossible get a hint at what is coming from his arm angle- he also hides the ball very well). The pitch f/x system also measures a pitcher’s release point- while the actual values tend to vary from park to park, compare the tight diagonal line when he faced the Phillies:

To his wandering release point in Game 1:

Francis was falling off to the side in Game 1, most noticably with his offspeed pitches, which would explain their inconsistency. Either he just couldn’t get into a rhythm, or he was having problems with his mechanics. Let’s hope his next layoff isn’t the entire off-season and he has a chance to correct the problem and show what he’s capable of on the biggest stage.

This entry was posted on Thursday, October 25th, 2007 at 6:41 am and is filed under Stats Analysis, Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.