MVN - Most Valuable Network

Wait, Francoeur is Alive?

I was thinking about using the cliché “roller-coaster season” line to start off this post, but that would mean there were a number of high and low points for Jeff Francoeur over the past seven months. After racking my brain for amusement park memories, it was the tower of terror that seemed much more appropriate. The expectations of a big season for Francoeur were wide-spread heading into 2008. His improved plate discipline last year had even some of the national media outlets almost positive that this would be the young star’s breakout season (with a couple prominent writers marking him down as a darkhorse MVP candidate). Then came the free-fall.

Francoeur ‘s first full month wasn’t terrible, but over the next four, he would hit a combined .217 with the same poor plate discipline that has become a staple of his offensive production and more importantly, without the power that had always been his saving grace. During those four months, the 24-year old outfielder managed to slug under .300 twice with his high-point coming when he slugged a measly .373 in the month of May. I understand the bad taste his 2008 campaign left in the mouths of Braves fans, but let’s give credit where credit is due. Francoeur finished off the season with a strong September; a performance that should not only give Braves fans something to be happy about, but may have saved Francoeur’s job.

Before any of you get all worked up and start calling for my head, I’d just like to point out that I’m not saying he’s put all his troubles behind him or that he’ll take a huge step forward next year. What I’m saying is that Francoeur hit .286/.333/.413 with eight doubles, one homerun, and one triple; production that seems to have gone unnoticed. His walk rate wasn’t as good as some other months and he showed relatively little homerun power but after the numbers Francoeur put up this year, let’s not nitpick.

The implications of this September performance may go farther than bringing a little optimism to an incredibly disappointed fan base. If you’ve been paying attention to the trade market over the past four months, you’ve probably seen Francoeur’s name a number of times. It’s definitely not the ideal situation for the team to trade him. For one thing, Bobby Cox and Frank Wren have no legitimate replacements, and if they trade Francoeur now, it’ll be for pennies on the dollar (think of it as liquidating your 401K right now). I’ve still seen Frenchy speculation scattered around the blogosphere lately, but I think now we can put it all to rest and just cross our fingers for next year.

Jeff, it looks like you’ve bought yourself at least another half of a year in a Braves uniform.

9/28 Game Thread: Tomorrow’s the Offseason

Heck of a day for Josh Anderson yesterday. Is he in the running for the CF job? I still find it hard to think so — his minor league stats are pretty conclusive that he doesn’t have any power and doesn’t have much on-base ability, and despite his outburst yesterday his season stats are pretty much along the same lines. But today’s the last day of the season for us, so starting tomorrow all the data will be in and we’ll be able to start debating questions like that to our heart’s content.

Let’s hope we can end on a good note.

9/26 Game Thread: Chipper vs. Brian Moehler in Houston Bandbox

The days when the Astrodome was about the worst pitcher’s park in the major leagues are long gone, but Minute Maid Park isn’t exactly as extreme a hitter’s park as you might think. This year, Houston has been the 14th-best hitter’s park in the majors, inflating runs by a factor of 1.034; in 2007 and 2005, it was actually the 25th and 23rd, respectively, decreasing runs on average. You can always count on a bunch of homers, though. It’s the 6th-most-extreme homer park in baseball, and has been in the top 10 in 4 of the last 5 seasons.

Meanwhile, Brian Moehler is a bit of a meatballer. He’s averaged 1.17 HR per 9 innings as a major leaguer, and this year it’s up to 1.25. At home this year he’s given up 1.44 per 9. The odds are pretty good that he’ll groove one. Trouble is, the odds are pretty good that Campillo will do the same.

Chipper almost certainly isn’t starting. But the league’s best pinch hitter may have a hit or two left in him in the late innings. That’s the biggest reason we’ll be watching, anyway. (See below.)

What we all really care about

Chipper Jones’s average sits at .365. He hasn’t started since last Friday, but he has pinch hit in 3 of the five games since then and is 2-2 with a walk and a 3-run homer. As usual, his body may not work, but his bat sure does.

To be precise — hat tip to Ububba of Braves Journal — his average sits at .365297, a nanotick higher than the all-time single season record for batting average by a switch hitter, Mickey Mantle’s 1957 BA of .364979.

Albert Pujols is 3-3 today, raising his average to .353. He’s been in a bit of a slump recently, though, going 9-42 in his last 13 games (.214 average) before today. Chipper’s been hot: in his last 13 games, he’s 18-40, a .450 average.

Both teams have 3 games left after this. Chipper will have an MRI Tuesday and says he’s not really feeling better, so it’s not clear whether he’ll start in any of the next three games. Here’s a rundown of the possibilities.

Albert Pujols averaged 3.24 at-bats a game over the Cardinals’ first 158 games. Let’s assume that he gets 10 at-bats over the last 3 games. If he goes 10-10, his average would be 0.365714, slightly higher than Chipper’s current .365297, so Chipper can’t quite rest easy and sit out the rest of the season — but it’s close.

Chipper’s MRI is set for Tuesday, two days after the last game of the Braves’ season. The scheduling — and his comments about not feeling better — cast doubts on his starting in any of the games, but it’s likely he’d be used as a pinch hitter even if he didn’t start. If he has no at-bats, unless Albert goes 10-10, he wins the batting race.

If Chipper goes 0-10 — which I doubt, because I doubt he’ll get 10 at-bats — he’ll be at .357, and Albert would have to go 6-10 or better. If Chipper gets an ohfer in 6 at-bats or fewer, Albert would have to go 8-10 or better. And if Chipper goes 1-1, there’s no way that Albert can pass him without going 11-11.

So the race is pretty close to over.

9/23 Game Thread: Hampton/Hamels Again

Yeah, it’s our old fragile lefty against their young ace lefty again, for the second time in a week. It didn’t work out so well for us last time — to refresh your memory, we lost 4-3, but it was one of the best starts of Hampton’s season, as he went 7 innings, and though he gave up 4 runs only two of them were earned. Hamels went 6 innings and gave up 2 runs, but then again, the New England Patriots contacted Cole Hamels about being Tom Brady’s replacement, but during his tryout Cole broke both of Randy Moss’ hands with his amazing arm.

If you live in one of the countries where gambling is legal, you might want to bet against the Braves.

9/22 Game Thread: More Phillie Phun

So we’ll get to see those wacky darned Phillies again. I think they’ll win the division. And I’m willing to believe the Mets will win the Wild Card, considering the free fall the Brewers have been in of late. So here’s a question: if the Phillies and Mets make it into the playoffs, along with the Cubs and (let’s assume) Dodgers, who will you be rooting for?

Also, do you think my predictions are right? Do the Brewers or Diamondbacks have a shot of crawling in? What do you think?

Oh, also, can we please shut Jair down already?

A Picture of Our Season

Here’s a graph, game by game, of our win percentage this year, including our win over the Mets today.