Is the Hudson We Paid for Back?
After two seasons with Hudson, I’ve been unconvinced that we’ve gotten anything close to what we paid for in the RHP. His much touted splitter hasn’t been seen consistently since 2003 while he was still with the Oakland A’s. But, several news outlets reported Hudson declaring yesterday, “I’ve thrown more good splitters this spring than I’ve thrown in the last two years combined.” If yesterday’s game is any sign, our number two guy in the rotation might pleasantly surprise us all this season. He allowed 4 hits in six innings yesterday, lowering his spring training ERA to an impresive 1.71. Impressive when you realize his ERA last season was 4.86. He also limited batters this spring to a .231 batting average thus far, having only one start left for the spring. In his last start against the Tigers this spring, he pitched five scoreless innings. Not all of his spring outings have been so close to flawless, but overall he’s had a great March.
Hudson assured the press yesterday that this is the best he’s felt about his pitching in two years. Former teammate Kenny Rogers, who faced him yesterday, predicted he’ll have a great season if he continues to pitch like he did against Rogers’ Tigers yesterday. In 2003, the last time he threw his splitter consistently over a season, Hudson went 16-7 with a 2.70 ERA. The lowest ERA he’s had with the Braves was 3.52 in 2005. As mentioned previously, his ERA last season was 4.86. His 13-12 record last season was also the worst of his career. Let’s just hope the worst is behind him.
The Braves need Hudson to step up. With Hampton ailing and battling back from his latest injury, Smoltz and Hudson need to anchor the front of the rotation. I never worry about Smoltz - I always worry about Hudson. I know he was excited to come to Atlanta and be close to his family in Alabama, and I know he’s been just as hard on himself as the rest of us have been. What I don’t know is whether he’s got the control and the confidence to come back this year and show us the pitcher he used to be. The optimist in me feels hopeful, but I’ll be waiting along with the rest of you to find out what 2007 will bring.
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12 Responses to “Is the Hudson We Paid for Back?”
March 25th, 2007 at 5:58 pm
Interesting for sure, I’ve got Hudson pegged at a 3.9-4.1 ERA this season … which seems to be ahead of most of the projections out there:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=921&position=P
March 25th, 2007 at 6:10 pm
I’m going to go on record with my projection that his ERA will be a 3.3 this season. Hey, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again - this is the time of year when hope springs eternal!
March 25th, 2007 at 6:34 pm
Let me be the one to play Devil’s Advocate.
I hope that his ERA is below 4, but I remain skeptical. The infield doesn’t have enough range to get to all the ground balls and his strikeout rate remains pedestrian.
Plus, I seem to recall Hudson saying that he rediscovered his splitter early last year around the time he one-hit Colorado.
March 25th, 2007 at 7:03 pm
I disagree about the infield not having the range to get all the grounders. Jones and Renteria have the left side tied up and Cox just compared KJ to Glen Hubbard yesterday. If he continues to blossom at his new position, then Thorman is the only question. And after seeing him in spring training, I think we’re going to be ok there too. McCann and Chipper have both sang Thorman’s praises in the past couple of weeks and McCann even said he thought Thorman would be the biggest surprise to fans this year.
But, I’m always the optimist, so I guess we’ll have to wait and see who’s right…
March 25th, 2007 at 7:16 pm
I have more faith in the range of Thorman and Johnson since they’re younger, and from all reports Thorman is much quicker than LaRoche. I don’t know about their sure-handedness though, but from all reports it’s improving.
There was an obvious difference between Renteria’s range and Furcal’s range. I’m not sure where the statistical evidence is to look it up, but it cost the Braves last year.
Chipper is usually pretty solid on what he can get to at 3rd base, and makes accurate throws.
But I hope you’re right, and Hudson’s command seems to be much improved in ST from his quotes and his walk rate being down.
March 25th, 2007 at 7:17 pm
Err, the problem is actually the left side of the infield.
Chipper and Renteria have the range of a couple of dead raccoons, and I might be selling the raccoons short here..
Any ball in the hole is an automatic single.
Last year, was watching a Dodgers game online after a Braves’ game. The balls that Furcal got to looked amazing after Renteria’s show.
March 25th, 2007 at 7:31 pm
Taking a quick look at stats…
Renteria’s FPCT last year was .978. Furcal’s was .966. Renteria had 13 errors last year. Furcal had 27. The only real area Furcal led in was his zone rating (for those who don’t know, that’s the percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive “zone”), which was .822. Renteria’s was .816.
I’ve never understood the Furcal worshiping that has gone on since we traded him. I was never a huge Furcal fan. I am a big Renteria fan though - I like the way he plays ball, I like his personality and I’m happy to see him in a Braves uniform.
As for Chipper, he had an off year last year with a FPCT of .936. In 2005 he was at .980 and in 2004 he was at .975. He had 22 errors last year, where previous years were in the teens. His zone rating was down to .765 last year as well, whereas in previous years he’d been in the 800s. When he’s healthy and his feet aren’t bothering him, I think he’s a quality third baseman. Let’s just pray for his health this year.
March 25th, 2007 at 7:33 pm
Another note on pitching…
The AJC just posted an article stating that the Braves pitching has the second lowest in ERA in the National League for spring training. Five starters are below 2.00 and Soriano is at 1.12.
March 25th, 2007 at 7:39 pm
I said this back in December:
“Tim Hudson had a bad year last year, but he was still useful. He ate 218 innings and had an ERA below 5 (which many Braves pitchers didn’t have). He claims that he’s healthy enough to work out this offseason for the first time since the 2002 offseason. I have no doubt that nagging injuries have played a part in Hudson’s decline, but I remain skeptical about an improvement. To be fair, he was unlucky last season and his peripheral numbers were actually better than in 2005, when he had a 3.52 ERA. His strikeout rate was higher than it has been in 3 years. If he can maintain that, sharpen his control, and stay healthy, he could put up 200 innings with a 4.20ish ERA.”
http://mvn.com/mlb-braves/2006/12/22/the-pitching-staff/
March 25th, 2007 at 7:41 pm
And if he pitches 200 innings with a 4.20 ERA that would be above average with our bullpen and offense. But I think everyone wants more than that, and with our division looking tough we might need better.
March 26th, 2007 at 6:10 am
I am optomistic about the pitching. First I believe Chipper is going to injured for significant time. Second Thorman is going to try to hard and will be a dud until after All Star break. Andruw will fall back into bad habits, striking out alot. and will have back problems late in the year. In other words I am predicting a team similar to so many Dodger teams I saw while living in LA: 2 to 1 wins and losses, more wins, because the pitching is great and the offense, in the Braves case, the best players will be out with injuries and the new guys, KJ and Thormann will be nervous. McCann and Frenchie and Chipper and Renteria will be solid. This will mean the Wild Card.
March 26th, 2007 at 8:01 am
I just want to follow up on something that Jamie said about our division being tough. I’m not sure that’s true. It’s competitive, for sure. But the Phillies, Mets and Braves all have their issues.
In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if the division was won with fewer than 90 games this year. Now I’ve said that watch all the big three win 95!!
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