Positional Preview: First Base
I’m going to move on with the 2008 positional previews with a look at our first base situation. First base was at two ends of the extreme last year. The Braves turned to a platoon of Scott Thorman and Craig Wilson after shipping Adam LaRoche off to Pittsburgh. Needless to say, the platoon failed miserably as the tandem produced almost nothing at the plate. Thorman and Wilson combined for a paltry .208 average and 76 strikeouts before the All-Star break. Wilson was let go pretty quickly and Thorman rarely saw playing time in the second half.
A bold move by John Schuerholz around the deadline brought Mark Teixeira, the most sought after trading commodity, to Atlanta for a package of prospects. The Texas slugger and former Georgia Tech standout took Atlanta’s first base situation from pathetic to more than they could ask for. Teixeira had been nagged by some injuries, however after the trade, the first baseman went on an offensive surge, becoming a fan favorite with his own youtube hit. “Tex” announced his arrival to the NL East with three long balls in his first three games and ten in his first month with his new team. He finished up his first season with the Braves with a line of .317/.404/.615 along with 17 home runs and 56 RBIs in only 54 games with the Braves.
First base is definitely one of the positions that really has no question marks going into next season. Even if Teixeira doesn’t completely keep up the production he had with Atlanta last year — and he more than likely won’t– the consistency, power, and defense he brings to this team will make him one of Bobby Cox’s most valuable players. Before you jump all over me for saying he won’t enjoy the same production as last year (yeah, I know half of you are already writing a comment about it), look at the numbers. His best previous season was in 2005 when he hit .301/.379/.575. In his time with Atlanta, Teixeira’s average was 16 points higher, his OBP was 25 points higher, and his slugging percentage was 40 points higher. I understand that he could have a better season than that but I really don’t expect that over a full season, Teixeira could replicate these type of numbers playing at a home field that is much less hitter-friendly than Arlington.
Bill James has Teixeira at .289/.382/.545 for next season with 36 home runs. To me, that is a slightly conservative prediction and I think he’ll be just a bit better than that. I have him down for .305/.390/.570 for next year with around 39 home runs. Just by itself, his offense would make him one of the best first basemen in baseball and then on top of that he provides gold glove defense. We can say what we want about the impact of his acquisition, but one thing no one can deny is that he is a force to be reckoned with while he’s here.
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16 Responses to “Positional Preview: First Base”
December 29th, 2007 at 9:35 pm
I wouldn’t say Tex’s new home park is is “much less hitter friendly” he pretty much moved from one launching pad to another. Hitter’s have been putting up gaudy #’s in hotlanta for quite some time, just ask the jones boys and dave justice- adam larouche i would imagine has fond memories compared to his new park which is much less hitter friendly.
December 29th, 2007 at 9:40 pm
That said I’m with you as far as expecting BIG things from Mark Tex this year, he responded beautifully to the change in venue. It was a noticeable difference really, as he got red hot- I remeber him blasting a few at Turner Field. Now the question is will the Braves fork over the $cash$ to keep him. He has the potential to be a serious impact bat for years to come(but I feel like that’s been said for a while now…)
December 30th, 2007 at 1:54 am
A look at last year’s park factors for ATL and TEX shows that the two ballparks were pretty much the same so the “much less hitter friendly” comment isn’t exactly true.
I agree with you that he more than likely won’t repeat, but I certainly wouldn’t bet on it. Tex is in the prime of his career and his OPS numbers have steadily improved his whole career, absent the down turn in 2006. (2003 - .811; 2004 - .930; 2005 - .954; 2006 - .885; 2007 - .963)
December 30th, 2007 at 2:29 am
To bad that we aren’t going to resign him! Matt Harrison, Jarrod Saltalamachia, Neftali Feliz, and Beau Jones would really help the Braves to trade for a SP like Dan Haren or Erik Bedard. I didn’t like the Teixeira deal when it happen and I still don’t like it now. But Teixeira is going to have a all-star type year for the Braves next season hitting after Chipper Jones.
December 30th, 2007 at 9:08 am
How do you know we aren’t going to re-sign him? I guarantee he won’t get a new contract before he hits free agency but that doesn’t mean we won’t re-sign him. The Braves are going to end up paying around $12 million for him this upcoming season and have a little more than $8 million coming off the books with Hampton with Jair Jurrjens and his major league minimum salary more than likely taking his spot next year. There is going to be money to spend and since he is pretty young, I could certainly see the Braves giving him enough years and dollars to keep him.
December 30th, 2007 at 12:25 pm
You forgot Elvis Andrus!
December 30th, 2007 at 9:45 pm
I doubt the Braves will be able to afford the numbers Tex will be able to command, but they are likely to be bigger players for him than Schuerholz would have been, because Wren doesn’t appear to have the bad blood with Boras that JS did.
PigBodine, dude, you’re getting your stadiums mixed up. Dave Justice never played at Turner Field; he played at Atlanta Fulton-County Stadium, which was indeed called “The Launching Pad.” The Ted tends to be a moderate pitcher’s park, oscillating from year to year between a neutral offensive environment to an extreme offensive depression near Shea levels. The Ballpark in Arlington is a much better hitter’s park. But the NL is a worse league right now, and Tex is maturing and entering his offensive prime, so those effects may even out.
December 31st, 2007 at 4:32 pm
I’m guessing that tops he’ll get around $20 million a year. If the team is confident in Jurrjens before the start of next season, that already frees up that amount for him. Tex’s money this year plus Hampton’s gets to 20 and we don’t even know if the payroll is going to go up some more next year. The real problem is whether or not Wren wants to throw down such a large percentage of the payroll on one player. It has worked for the Braves in the past though.
December 31st, 2007 at 5:59 pm
Will, that sounds like a good estimate to me. The biggest problem will probably be how many years. 5 years, $100 mill is high, but might be possible to justify; 6 years, $120 million is a bit harder to swallow, and 7 years, $140 million would be hard for the Braves to justify paying anyone. All of this would be based on assuming Tex continues to be the durable player he has been (150-160 games a season), and not the 130 game player he was in 2007.
I generally tend to think that 7-year contracts are insane, but that doesn’t mean that there won’t be some GM out there who won’t pay it. Paying Tex would definitely be a win-now move, and one I’d support — he’s a hell of a hitter, and could definitely push us over the top — but we have to make sure not to mortgage TOO much of our future.
January 2nd, 2008 at 12:00 pm
There are a couple thing that will make that kind of a deal within reach. One is his age. He’ll be only 28 after next season, which would mean a 7-year deal would carry him through his age 35 season. For a first baseman, that really isn’t all that bad. He really doesn’t have any injury concerns either (I don’t consider one hamstring injury a recurring concern). He’s an impact bat with great defense at a position that he can stay at even when he gets older.
January 2nd, 2008 at 2:54 pm
I agree that the Braves can make a substantial offer for Tex next year, but what scares me about his free agency, especially with Borass as his agent, are the big market, free spending teams that need a first baseman, especially one of his caliber. I’m afraid Boston or the New York teams will make an outrageous offer that he won’t be able to refuse, and the Braves couldn’t match.
January 2nd, 2008 at 3:55 pm
The Braves have to at least make a serious attempt to resign Tex in order to show the fans that they intend to remain competitive. They traded away a lot of the farm system and don’t really have the young pitching that would allow them to sacrifice offense. If they lose Tex, they will have to get another big bat unless they go after whatever pitcher is available. Glavine will probably be gone and who knows about Smoltz. It’s hard for me to see the Braves being able to keep him if one of the big boys wants him and he is looking only at the dollars. But I assume that Wren and Schuerholz have a plan in either case; it would be unlike them to simply hope for the best.
January 2nd, 2008 at 6:40 pm
I have to take this time to talk about a serious issue (and I hope Kristi is reading this one). Yesterday my Michigan Wolverines downed the Florida gators in the capitol one bowl. Ok, so it wasn’t that serious, but when you’re a Michigan fan and one of your co-authors is a UF alum, something just has to be said.
January 2nd, 2008 at 10:59 pm
I’m going to try and get second base done for tomorrow for you guys. Not much going on these days surrounding the Braves so remember, if you’ve got suggestions or questions, feel free to write them down or send them to me.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:57 am
When people talk about money coming off the books, people rarely consider Glavine’s 8 Million. With Tommy being unsure whether to play this year, it is foolish to not consider his contract coming off the payroll after 08. Hopefully some of the young guys can step up and show that they are ready to be mainstays in the rotation so we can use the money on Tex.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:39 pm
Sorry guys, too tuned in to the Iowa caucus tonight to get much done. I started on my next post so I’ll definitely get that done tomorrow afternoon before I head out.
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