Oh, crap. Johan Santana’s a Met.
Well, it appears that our nightmares have come true, and the New York Mets managed to replace Tom Glavine with a slightly better left-hander named Johan Santana. The thought of him chewing through NL hitters in roomy Shea Stadium is enough to give anyone the cold sweats. Two conditions: first, he has to pass a physical, and second, he has to agree on a multiyear contract extension with the Mets. Both of these things will happen.
The sky hasn’t completely fallen, I guess. The Mets gave up Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, and Phil Humber, which means they don’t have a whole lot of farm system left. However, they still have Fernando Martinez, and they still have Jose Reyes, so they managed to stick to their guns and make the Twins blink. To tell you the truth, if I was the Twins I might have preferred the prospect haul the Mariners agreed to send to Baltimore (which Peter Angelos, being a clueless meddler, still hasn’t okayed): Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, and George Sherrill.
But still, the Twins got most of the cream of the Mets’ farm system, and in return the Mets get the Best Pitcher in Baseball. He’s 28, and already has 2 Cy Youngs and two more top-5 finishes. Since 2004, when he became a full-time starter, he has more wins and strikeouts than anyone else in baseball.
Maybe he’s damaged goods — his ERA in the second half last year was over 4.00, and he gave up 4 or more runs in 4 of his last 7 starts — and he has pitched more than 900 innings in the last 4 years. That’s a lot of mileage. Keith Law expressed concern that some of Johan’s struggles might be attributable to arm trouble. Still, until he posts a WHIP above 1.10 or ERA above 3.33, which he hasn’t done since he became a starter, rumors of his demise will have to remain greatly exaggerated.
We’ll only face him a couple times a year, unpleasant though they may be. But he immediately elevates the credibility of their pitching staff, and even if Pedro never throws another pitch for them, John Maine reverts to the pitcher he was in the second half, and Oliver Perez turns back into Jorge Sosa, they’ll have a bona fide ace and by far the best pitcher in the division. As long as they have David Wright, Carlos Beltran, and Reyes, their offense will be no slouch either, though facing Brian Schneider 4 times a game is a rather pleasant thought.
Anyway, they have a pretty good team, and they got better. I wish the Twins could have traded him within the AL, but they didn’t. I guess it just means Mets fans will be even bitterer when they collapse this year.
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133 Responses to “Oh, crap. Johan Santana’s a Met.”
January 29th, 2008 at 5:15 pm
Opens up a whole lot of questions for the rest of that rotation. No one in that system is really capable of pitching decently out of a rotation spot past the major league rotation now that they traded away Humber and Mulvney and to say that their rotation is a question mark is an understatement. Can’t assume anything from Perez, Maine struggled the last half of ‘07, and both Duque and Pedro are huge injury risks (30 starts combined, maybe?). On top of that, none have any shot to pitch 200 innings and the bullpen ain’t exactly the cream of the crop past Wagner. When someone goes down, they have big issues and if either Maine or Perez doesn’t fare well, those issues get so much worse for them.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:27 pm
Well, Aaron Heilman’s a reliable piece of their pen, and if Duaner Sanchez is healthy he will be too. You’re absolutely right, the rotation’s thin, but Maine and Perez are both nice #3s. Their flaws are exposed when they’re asked to be aces. As long as they can pitch in the middle of the rotation — which is exactly what will happen whenever Pedro is fleetingly healthy. Duque’s an adequate #4/#5, even at this late date, and so is Pelfrey.
I’m happy they’ve traded away depth, but until all of their injury risks are actually on the DL, they’ve got a solid rotation.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
I really don’t think it has anything to do with where you are asked to pitch. Maine did not do all that well over his minor league career, his stuff is at best average, and he had a 5.53 ERA over the second half of the year. I’d be surprised if his ERA is below 4.60 next year.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:34 pm
And Pelfrey is a pitcher with one pitch. The rest of his arsenal is awful. He is a reliever in the future and showed last year that he is not cut out to be a starter. Him being in the rotation at some point would just prove what I am saying.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
Maine’s stuff isn’t so terrible. He struck out 180 guys in 191 innings last year, and his K rate actually rose in the second half. He’s not an ace, which is what Mets fans wanted him to be after his stellar first half, but he’s not a bad pitcher, which is what you’re saying he is. He was pretty good in limited work in 2006.
Just compare him to Chuck James, whom I like a lot. Over the past 2 years, which amount to about a season and a half of work for the two of them, Maine has been the better pitcher, with a LOT more strikeouts. Both project to be about #3 starters, where you really only need an ERA around 4.00. I think Maine’s likely to hit that on the nose.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:59 pm
Mediocre fastball, mediocre slider, and mediocre changeup. Sorry, not buying into him too much. He is a product of not being seen.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:05 pm
I agree with Alex.
Second, when we beat the Mets, that will prove something. Look, as it stands the Braves are the 3rd best team in the division. Nothing great, nothing terrible. For the next season, I think we stand a good chance to move up to #2, and I don’t see us falling back to #4. We should sit back and recall the sage words of the President, “Bring it on.”
January 29th, 2008 at 6:06 pm
i was mad cheesed until i read what Will said. Injury and ther in trouble.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:09 pm
Sometimes mediocre’s enough if you can spot it, as long as you’re in the NL, and having Shea as your home park never hurts.
Hell, if Bronson Arroyo can be above-average while pitching in the Great American Ballpark…
January 29th, 2008 at 6:33 pm
I think Santana’s due for an off year. Off for him may be 5th-7th in the Cy Young voting but it smacks of desperation and the injury possibilities should leave Mets fans quaking.
Don’t worry. Braves were only six games behind the best record in the NL and we’ve improved.
January 29th, 2008 at 7:02 pm
This past year was an off year as far as Santana goes. Some people have raised injury concerns because of his second half and the amount of innings he has pitched in the last couple yars. Not sure how much I’d look into that though. Santana is a great pitcher but I think there is some shiny new toy syndrome going on because looking past that, the trade doesn’t improve the Mets as much as Santana’s name would suggest.
January 29th, 2008 at 8:30 pm
Thank you all for making me feel a little better about this. I think it is important to note that Pedro is probably good for 100-150 innings at best, and El Duque maybe 100. I have to wonder about John Maine. I think he may be legit, but I am wondering about his second half. He did pitch far more innings than he had before last year, and that is not good for a player’s arm (see Horacio Ramirez for an extreme example). I don’t see much in Perez. If you look at his career, his first year with every team seems spectacular (see the Padres and Pirates), but then he falls apart. I have to wonder why that is and if he really has turned a corner as many believe.
I sincerely hope that the Mets are in trouble. I would also add that the Braves stats against Santana aren’t all bad (though most have only seen him in one game). Chipper is career 3/4 against him.
Also, guess who gave up the third most home runs of any pitcher in the Majors last year. That’s right, Johan Santana.
January 29th, 2008 at 9:09 pm
“Also, guess who gave up the third most home runs of any pitcher in the Majors last year.”
Shea should help him out, in that respect.
January 29th, 2008 at 9:17 pm
I understand that most of you are trying to in some way bandage the wound that the Santana trade deals you by making all these detrimental comments about him which are really kinda funny considering his performance to date. Lets be a bit introspective here concerning our own pitching staff. We picked up Tommmy Glavine back from them and I think in light of the Santana trade that ended up being a way better deal for them because they got the rotation spot they needed filled by a true ace and we got, and I’m sorry to say it, used and beat up goods in Glavine. As far as Perez is concerned he ended up with the best ERA on the Mets staff last year and Maine struck out the most batters of anyone on the Mets staff last year granted that is not saying much but they both also won 15 games. Honestly their numbers are not far from those of Smoltz and Hudson. I think the Mets seriously addressed their pitching issues at least with their rotation with this move. That is not to say they do not have some serious lack of depth in their bullpen. Shy of Heilman and Wagner they have almost nothing unless you count Sanchez who is a wild card at this point.
January 29th, 2008 at 9:25 pm
Well I hope Johan has a horrible season next year. Then the Mets fans booooo him and he loses confidence. The Braves are still going to be fine(I hope).
January 29th, 2008 at 9:50 pm
Braves fans really have to start worrying about there own beat up rotation. The mets addressed a major need and snagged themselves a bona fide ace in the hole for reletivly cheap. How did the Braves fix there rotation? By signing Glavine? Besides there bullpen, I think the Braves are in serious trouble. When you guys lose Texeira to free agency next year, you’ll be one step away from a complete rebuilding faze. See ya down the stretch boys!!!!
January 29th, 2008 at 10:00 pm
Not really a beat up rotation. They strengthened the rotation with Glavine, Hampton is healthy, and they acquired Jair Jurrjens for depth. It is very solid top to bottom and if Hampton goes down there is a cushion there. Meanwhile the Mets have absolutely no cushion for when Pedro and El Duque go down or if one or both of Perez and Maine are ineffective. Remember that you’re the ones who traded the farm for this guy so I wouldn’t say we’re the ones heading for a rebuilding phase.
January 29th, 2008 at 10:12 pm
While I would say that both teams are far from rebuilding I do have to say that the Met and Brave starting 5 both have question marks and are remarkably similar. As I said before if you base it on last years stats Maine and Perez are on equal ground with Smoltz and Hudson. I personally was never a big fan of Hampton’s and I would count on him about as much as I would tell the Mets to count on Hernandez or Pedro finishing the season. Glavine in my opinion was a horrible mistake and I see him as nothing more than someone who might keep you in a few games if he fairs better than he did in Shea stadium with the questech being gone it might be possible but IMO he’s washed up and we never should have signed him. The Mets farm is thin but barring any big injuries they have a fairly young team if you take out Alou and Delgado so it might not mean much. Lets see what happens it should be an interesting season to say the least but unfortunately my view which I consider realistic, is that the Mets are going to be a force to be reckoned with for a few years.
January 29th, 2008 at 10:20 pm
Hamptons inability to stay healthy. Jurrjens a question mark at best. Hudson seems to be on a steady decline. One more year out of Glavs and Smoltzie (i hope). James is inconsistent. As Inconsistent as Maine and Perez were down the stretch, they still won 15 and had an ERA of around 3.50. A healthy Martinez (although Im not sure how nuch he still has in the tank) will win a bunch of games for you. And help out the kids. Theres also talk of still signing Livan and moving El Duque to the pen(smart move). Plus we still have Pelfrey and Dave Williams in the mix. Dont sound to bad to me. Plus well get a bunch of kids when we trade Pedro and Delgado( after we sign Texeira. lol) next season. We will be just fine. Send me my pennent right now.
January 29th, 2008 at 10:24 pm
I don’t think you can count on bringing back much for Pedro or Delgado. Doesn’t Pedro have an option year left after 08 and well if Delgado continues his decline from last year that will kill any value he might have had to an American league team looking for a DH. As far as signing Texeira I don’t see it.
January 29th, 2008 at 10:33 pm
It justs upsets me to see how many people are pissed of about this Johan trade. To say that they hope this guys arm falls off or what not. He was out there for the taking. And Im sure that someone could of came up with a better package than what the Mets offered. Although signing him mightv’e been difficult. Im sure the Braves couldve came up with the money if they cut cut loose some of there has beens or never will bes’ . I just question which direction there orginization is going. Losing Jones and signing Glavine and Kotsay is not the answer.
January 29th, 2008 at 10:41 pm
Even though signing Texeira is just a dream, Delgado had an off year. He’s 35 years old and he and Pedro(36) will defenitly draw interest from a contender willing to give up some prospects (whether it be NL or AL) next season. And I just hope Texeira hits the market so other teams have that chance to outbid the Braves.
January 29th, 2008 at 10:47 pm
And remember that Pedro went 3-1 with a 2.57 era and 32 Ks after missing 3/4 of the year. Pretty impressive for someone who has nothing in the tank.
January 29th, 2008 at 10:49 pm
Erik? Will Schaffer? Anyone? Lets go Mets!
January 29th, 2008 at 10:51 pm
Yeah it does seem like there is a bunch of sour grapes on this thread thats for sure. I completely see your point and agree that Glavine and Kotsay are not the answers for the Braves. The truth of the matter is I live in New York and have loved the Mets from the day I understood what baseball was…. I just like to have a balanced opinion based on fact rather than overblown hyperbole and emotions. I think Santana makes the Mets the best team in the NL. Not the NL East the NL, hands down. The bottom line is the entire league is think on starting pitching and the Mets just happened to land the best pitcher in baseball. I think the other guys in their rotation are solid pitchers who will now be pitching against who they should be pitching against, other teams 2, 3, and 4 pitchers. As for the comparison with the Braves rotation I think that minus Santana they look very much alike. Bullpen depth is the one spot that could really hurt the Mets this year. Otherwise average production from every player on the team makes them very very very very hard to beat. I have them as paper favorites to win the NL and possible World Series Champs barring any injuries as of this moment.
January 29th, 2008 at 11:04 pm
Oh and I almost forgot…… LETS GO METS!!!!!!!!!!!!!
January 29th, 2008 at 11:19 pm
Hudson was in Cy Young contention for a considerable chunk of the year. Last year, he had the same ERA as Johan Santana and pitched more innings. Hudson gave up 23 less home runs during that span and Hudson’s ERA+ was 128 compared to Santana’s 130. Granted, Santana had a better WHIP and better strikeout rate, but to say Hudson is on the decline when his numbers compare to your new ace is just wrong. Looking at the rest of the Mets rotation, Pedro hasn’t thrown more than 140 innings either of the past 2 years, Hernandez hasn’t thrown more than 170 innings since 1999, and Oliver Perez has been wildly inconsistent at every level. John Maine is decent, but fell apart at the end of last year. Your backup options are…Pelfrey and Dave Williams. wow. Pelfrey hasn’t done anything impressive past high A ball and Dave Williams hasn’t had a WHIP below 1.4 in the past 3 years. In the Braves rotation, Smoltz has thrown over 200 innings each of the past 3 years and his ERA hasn’t been over 3.5 since 1994. Also, his WHIP hasn’t been over 1.2 since ‘95. Glavine hasn’t thrown less than 180 innings since 1995 and worst case scenario, his ERA will be around 4.5, but as recent as 2006, his ERA was 3.82 and in 2005, his ERA was 3.53. For the 4th and 5th spot, the Braves have Chuck James, Mike Hampton, Jair Jurjjens, Jojo Reyes, Jeff Bennet and now more minor league pitching depth than the Mets. Even with Santana, I’d still take the Braves rotation over that of the Mets.
January 29th, 2008 at 11:21 pm
Finally! Someone with brains. Now Ive been a Met fan my whole life. I’ve shed my tears as much as the next during the Braves almost unheard of run in the 90s. And your right! Our bullpen is nothing to write home about, but if Delgado can resurface as that monster he was(or is), and if the back of the rotation holds up….I might as well hang my pennent now. And we can dominate for years to come with a team built around Santana, Wright, Reyes, and Beltran (and maybe, hopefully Fernando Martinez). Who knows? Maybe even have a run like those Braves of old! Bring on the new year! Lets Go Mets!!!
January 29th, 2008 at 11:30 pm
You are insane. For all that you claim your beloved ace Hudson has done his season totals rival that of Maine and Perez who you are down talking. By the way the numbers you quote from last season on Santana happen to be career lows so be careful when you compare your ace to Santana’s worst year that looks pretty bad for Huddy. Granted your depth for the rotation is deeper, younger, and more talented. They will never pitch and if they do well you’ve got problems anyway so that point is really moot. Please do not claim that Glavine was a good pick up for you guys. It was a charity deal. He’s done period. The meltdown he had with the Mets last game is what you should expect more rather than less of in the upcoming season. He no longer has the magic although I will grant you that he might have a very slight resurgence without the nagging questek problem he had in Shea. Please though enough with the sour grape Santana is without question the best pitcher in baseball and now he’s a Met. If you take the Braves rotation over the Met rotation that is just fanboy ignorance talking because depth in the rotation does not win games. I would take almost every position player on the Mets over any on the Braves and if I had to chose pitchers from either staff I would pick them like this. 1. Santana, 2. Smoltz, 3. Pedro, 4. Hudson, 5. Maine. Like I said before I see alot of similarity between the two staffs but I think Santana makes much more difference than you are giving credit for.
January 29th, 2008 at 11:33 pm
If Delgado returns to form and the back end of the rotation puts up close to what they put up last year there is no stopping the Mets. They should have started their run of consecutive titles last year but that bullpen and Tommy Glavine (who apparently is going to save the Braves rotation this year) killed us.
January 29th, 2008 at 11:34 pm
Hey telemakhos! Are you mad!!! I am a pretty open minded dude, but to say that you would take the Braves rotation over the Mets is just bogus Braves pride. I’ll admit that i’ve always liked Smoltzie (and resented him for beating up on the Mets all those years) but how many more years can he keep it up. And behind him and Hudson (also a fan) its nothing but a bunch of question marks. Question marks dont win pennents. Do you really think that any combo of James, Smoltz, Hudson, Hampton, Jurjjens, Reyes or Bennet would give you more wins than Santana, Martinez, Perez, and Maine combined. I think not. Dont let that Brave pride bite you in the ass!
January 29th, 2008 at 11:46 pm
if you say Smoltz is too old to keep up the pace, then you have to apply the same to Pedro and El Duque because they’re all getting old and Pedro and Duque have had a worse injury history. Also, to say you would take Pedro over Hudson is extremely debatable, if only because Pedro can’t pitch a full season. I do think Santana is the best pitcher in the NL now, there’s no denying that, and I wish he would hurt his arm, but I’m not counting on it. Also, depth doesn’t necessarily win pennants, but lack of depth can certainly lose them. Just look at what the 5th spot of the Braves rotation did last year. This year, by adding Glavine, Hampton, and Jurjjens, the rotation is significantly stronger. If healthy, at least two of those should fill out the 3rd through 5th spots.
January 29th, 2008 at 11:52 pm
Other than Chipper Larry Jones(if he stays healthy), Texeira, McCann, and maybe Francouer, who do you have that will strike fear in opposing pitchers eyes? And with your rotation behind Huds and Smoltzie, I think a pennent in your future is just a pipe dream Braves fans. So get used to being in the back seat. Ive been there for years. The view is great in October!!! Lets Go Mets Baby!!!!!!!!!
January 29th, 2008 at 11:58 pm
Tele,
While I agree that depth can loose pennants and that having the names and numbers you do to back up your rotation makes your depth stronger than that of the Mets to say that you would choose the Braves starting 5 over the Mets starting 5 is crazy. If just for the fact that Santana is now the Mets #1. Like I have said over and over all the rest of the starting 5 on both teams match up fairly evenly. Santana is most certainly the difference maker. As far as improvements are concerned I think the Mets have made much bigger strides to improve than the Braves have. Losing Jones kills you guys in multiple ways and Kotsay can not hold Jones’ jock in center or with the offensive production. The Mets got a bit younger they improved their defense and now have improved their pitching all the while maintaining a powerful offense. The Braves have taken a step back in both defense and offense and remained the same as far as pitching is concerned really having done nothing to the rotation but add insurance.
January 30th, 2008 at 12:03 am
Unforetunately, Alex makes some good points in the article and in these comments. I’ve never been a big fan of John Maine, and I thought his hot start last year was a product of no one having seen him, but he isn’t terrible. He was bad in the minors before he developed his two-seam fastball, and while it isn’t a fantastic pitch, its good enough to make people miss. He had a terrible second half, but he had thrown a lot more pitches in his first full major league season and I’m sure he was worn down. I’ve been far more impressed with a year and a half of John Maine than I have been of Chuck James. To be honest, Chuck benefited from a delivery that hitters needed time to get used to, and once they figured him out they started hitting the ball a long way. If I had to pick one of them for next year, I’d take Maine who should put up 15 wins, and a decent 4ish ERA. I just don’t see him falling off the face of the earth with a 4.6 era, not in that ball park and not with that defense.
Santana, obviously, is a hell of a pitcher. He will be good next year, and whatever injury prayers we may have for him they are unfounded. Lets be honest, there is a much greater chance that Smoltz gets hurt next year than there is that Johan does. Santana is going to win some games over the next 7 years and there is nothing we can do about it except go out and get the right guys to compete with him. the rest of that rotation is thin, but it isn’t that thin. Perez looked pretty good last year, and El Duque, Pelfrey, Martinez, and possibly Livan Herandez will do more than enough to get this team to 90 wins. Again, the ante has been raised, and we have to go out and find a way to compete.
If there is any silver lining here, it is that the Mets not only unloaded the farm, but they are also about to unload an aweful lot of cash. They will still be paying Johan Santana some $23 million a year when he is 36 years old (at least that’s what I assume the deal will look like). Meanwhile, in a couple of years Reyes and Wright will be looking to join Beltran and Santana in the $15+ million a year club, which means this team could be paying as much as $75 million to 4 players. At the same time, this trade insures they will have no pitchers in the 0-6 range to step in and play for cheap, which means they will have to go out and spend a lot to fill out the rest of that rotation. I know Citi Field is supposed to generate a lot of cash, but that is a lot of money to owe to a few guys, especially without a farm system to help out.
One final thought on the subject of Citi Field, with all the financial trouble Citigroup is in, that stadium could well have a new name before it opens. Anything that makes life a little worse for the Mets is fine by me…
January 30th, 2008 at 12:04 am
Smoltz is 4 years older than both (Pedro, anyway). And is still talk of adding Livan and putting El Duque which would help both areas and probably keep Duque on the field longer. (go to Metsblog.com for info Mets fans. The guys pretty right on) But even if that deal fell through, the addition of Johan takes a lot of strain off the rest of the rotation. They wont have to carry the workload they did last year. Keeping them on the field longer. And I would take a healthy Pedro and El Duque over any unproven guy you got in the back of your rotation any day of the week! Questions anyone?
January 30th, 2008 at 12:17 am
Brent Dont forget that the Mets have there own network (SNY) which generates alot of cash for them as well. And in a few years we will dump alot of payroll from Martinez, Delgado, Alou, etc. If Ryan Church comes up big for us, hes still under minimum contract for 3 years. And Fernando Martinez could emerge as the starting right fielder. Hes not up for free agency for another 5 to 6. On top of the home field discount Reyes and Wright are SURE to give. I believe we will be just fine. So stop wishing thge plague on us poor mets fans and worry about your sinking Braves franchise!
January 30th, 2008 at 12:34 am
I’m not impressed with the numbers of Fernando Martinez at all so far in the minors, so don’t start dubbing him the starting right fielder yet. Also, you keep comparing guys higher up in your rotation to guys lower down in the Braves’. John Maine is your #3, or your #2 if Pedro gets hurt again. Chuck James is the Braves’ #5 or #6, so I would certainly hope you would win that matchup. Otherwise, there are more problems with your rotation than you think. Smoltz is 4 years older than Pedro, but with less history of injury and he;s 2 years younger than el duque, with much less history of injury.
January 30th, 2008 at 12:58 am
Duque is actually 2 years younger (do your homework) than Smoltz. My point is, if Smoltzie breaks down (or retires, whatever comes first) , who do you have to bolster that rotation besides a bunch of unknowns who most havn’t pitched more than 20-30 innings in the bigs in their career. You know you cant count on Hampton who will pull a hammy putting on his jockstrap and miss 2 years. James is is a #4 or #5 at best. I hope Glavine gives that fantastic finish to you as he did for us. I would take the Mets rotation even without Santana. And with him, thats a no brainer. Your boy Brent up there feels the same. This is like beating a dead horse. Damn that Braves pride. Damn it to hell! Lets Go Mets!!!!!
January 30th, 2008 at 1:26 am
Dang guys how are we going to let some crazy Mets fans come to our MVN site and trash talk to us like that. Screw the Mets! GO BRAVES!!!!!!!
January 30th, 2008 at 2:34 am
I just couldnt sit back and take your Braves B.S. anymore. Nothing but a bunch of cry babys who wish THEY got Santana. So because you didnt, you hope his arm breaks down. You dont see us Mets fans wishing for Hudson or Smoltz to get hit by a bus or anything. Step aside! You had your run. Its our turn!! LETS GO METS!!!!!!!!!!! And who says DANG anymore?????
January 30th, 2008 at 2:38 am
Ill be back!!!
January 30th, 2008 at 7:25 am
The only reason an opposing fan would come over here and trash talk is total insecurity about his team. He knows that both Pedro and El Duque’s arms are about to fall off and that probably at least one of Maine and Perez won’t have success next year. Combined with absolutely no depth whatsoever, the Mets are going to be in big trouble.
January 30th, 2008 at 8:40 am
The Mets are going to be in ‘big trouble’ Will? Defending our favorite team is one thing. Thinking the team with the rotation in the National League is in ‘big trouble’ is another.
I think the NL East should be a fun, three team race. The Phillies have the best hitting, the Mets have the best pitching, and the Braves have the second best in both. It should be a great summer.
January 30th, 2008 at 9:35 am
Thanks Will. Hopefully the madness has ended.
I would like to add, and I am not the first person to say this, but I am not sure that Johan Santana is healthy already. Many analysts have pointed out that Santana mysteriously lost 2-3 mph on his fastball, posted a high ERA, and rarely used his slider in the second half of last season. If I were a Mets fan, I would be seriously worried as that REEKS of elbow problems.
I am not the type of fan to wish harm on an opposing player, though considering the evidence, Braves fans might not even have to. It sucks the Mets got Santana, but as Will pointed out, it isn’t the end of the world.
January 30th, 2008 at 9:39 am
There is absolutely no way you can call the Mets, even with Santana, the best rotation in the National League. They’ve got a great one at the top, no doubt, but past that they have two guys who won’t be able to make a lot of starts or pitch a lot of innings, and two guys past that who are young. One of whom, does not have a history of being much, and the other who usually has one good season then sucks for about three. Past that, they traded both of their guys who could step in and be decent in the trade, which is why they’re in trouble.
January 30th, 2008 at 9:41 am
John, Orlando Hernandez has been “around 40″ for a long, long time. He didn’t give his true age when he defected. If you check baseballreference.com (which is the best baseball site on the web, and which you really shouldn’t need to be told), you’ll see Duque was born in October 1965, which makes him 42. Smoltz was born in May 1967, which makes him 40.
Come on.
January 30th, 2008 at 10:44 am
This just in from Keith Law: “The Mets get Johan Santana without giving up Fernando Martinez, their best prospect, or Mike Pelfrey, their best young pitcher. They also immediately make themselves the favorites to win their division and have a good argument that they’re the best team in the National League….
Santana is not without his red flags; he stumbled to the finish in 2007 and in the past has had elbow chips, a problem that tends to recur. He’s become more flyball-oriented recently, leading to a big spike in his home run rate this year; the acquisition could encourage the Citi Field architects to push the fences back a few feet.”
Anyway, it’s a good deal for the Mets, and pretty much everyone on the interweb is far less than impressed by the prospect package the Twins managed to get. Will Schaffer makes some good points about why Santana won’t be a magic bullet, as the rest of their rotation and much of their lineup is still one major question mark after another, but the bottom line is that their team is better today than it was yesterday.
On the other hand, the Braves have a good chance to play better this year than they did last year, and our farm system is leaps and bounds better than the Mets’ right now. Finally, the Mets can’t be called the team to beat till they win something, and their collapse last year — once more, for the cheap seats, the worst late-season collapse in the 131-year history of professional organized baseball — may leave some lasting damage in the relationship between Willie Randolph and his players. We all know that Willie isn’t a great manager, and some of his players may have figured that out by now.
This makes the NL East a lot more interesting, though.
January 30th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
Not sure it makes the NL East more “interesting” Alex, although it certainly makes the NL East a more talented division. The vegas odds on the NL east as of yesterday had the Braves, Mets and Phillies in a virtual three way tie to win the division, with the Braves slightly behind the other two. As of this morning, those who make it their job to predict the future have adjusted the NL East odds giving the Braves a 5-1 shot, the Phillies a 5-2 shot, and the Mets a mind boggling 2-5 shot to win the division. That means the Mets are a virtual lock in the eyes of the gambling world, something you never see before spring training in baseball.
I’m trying to be optimistic about this situation, but at some point we have to be unbiased and rational and recognize that the Mets made a huge steal with this trade, and that they are a much better team than they were last year. Of course, we still have Bobby, and they still have a club house full of troublemakers and a manager with no control, but nothing aids clubhouse atmosphere better than winning.
January 30th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
I’ll take those odds.
January 30th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
Most At Bats for current NL East Batters
Player, at bats hits HR RBI avg.
Ronnie Belliard, 21 4 0 2 .190
Aaron Boone, 20 2 0 1 .100
Dmitri Young, 18 5 1 2 .278
Mark Teixeira, 17 4 1 2 .235
Omar Infante, 16 0 0 2 .000
Most success against Santana among current NL East batters
Player, team at bats hits HR RBI avg.
Mike Rabelo, 1 1 0 2 1.000
Chipper Jones, 4 3 0 2 .750
Jeremy Hermida, 3 2 0 0 .667
Matt Diaz, 9 5 1 3 .556
Ryan Zimmerman, 3 1 1 3 .333
January 30th, 2008 at 1:27 pm
Most of these are too small to mean anything but I don’t think anyone is questioning that Santana is a great pitcher, I just happen to think that what they gave away is going to have huge reprecussions as well this year.
January 30th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
I can see why the betting line changed so much, because this is such a major trade, but that being said, one player can only change a team a certain amount, especially a pitcher that only goes once or twice a week. The reason the betting line changed is because of the perception. The Mets just landed one of the best pitchers and baseball and now Peter Gammons is saying they’re the favorite in the NL, despite giving up any semblance of depth in an injury prone rotation. All the press that this trade is getting is certianly driving people to put money down on the Mets, so that’s what Vegas odds reflect, not the actual odds of them winning the division.
January 30th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
Will,
I agree with you small sample size but I see some success as well. I wasn’t sure if anyone had seen the stat comparison yet. I was hoping tex had some more success against him. Chipper locked in the one game he saw santana. Diaz seemed to handle him. I hate that the mets picked up Santana but I’m not worried about it. The Braves will be good this year. The mets have big money and bigger mouths.
January 30th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
telemakhos- Keith Law suggested that adding Santana improves the Mets by at least 5 wins. In a division that was decided by 1 game last year, 5+ wins will radically change the chances of them winning next year, not just the perception
January 30th, 2008 at 1:57 pm
By the way how many world series rings did Santana bring the Twins I can’t see why the mets think it will be different for them
January 30th, 2008 at 2:08 pm
Betting lines are not set up based on who will win or lose. Vegas sets up betting lines for one reason and one reason only, to make themselves the most money possible. The Mets are already more popular than the Braves and Phillies and this is the highest profile player at the most important position. That line is just to curb betting away from the Mets since more people bet on them anyway.
January 30th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
but if Pedro and/or El Duque go down, I could certainly see the new #4/#5 starters being far worse than a 5 win differential.
January 30th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
Jason, you know that World Series rings aren’t a good indicator of how good a player is — Jim Leyritz has one.
January 30th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
Good point Alex,
Its just we constantly keep hearing the mets have added the final piece to the puzzle martinez, beltran, etc… I think Johan is a great pitcher if not the greatest lefthander I’ve ever seen but I don’t think the mets have the mentality to finish it out even with Santana.
January 30th, 2008 at 3:06 pm
Interesting Bob Klapisch article — basically, Bill Smith screwed up in December when he didn’t take Phil Hughes, and then screwed up again when he was afraid that Johan wouldn’t waive his no-trade if he didn’t make a deal immediately.
Rookie mistakes by a greenhorn GM, and he let the Mets get away with a steal.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
Geez at the Mets fans. Will their crap ever stop????
First off, Our rotation still beats yours, even with Johan Santana.
Braves: Smoltz, Huddy, Glavine, James/JoJo/Jurrjens, and Hampton
Mets: Pedro, Santana, Oliver, Maine, etc.
Smoltz is better than Pedro, and Huddy compared to Santana, it’s pretty close, but I’ll give a nudge to Santana
Our lineup beats yours too. Tex, Yunel, KJ, Chipper, McCann, Francoeur, Kotsay, and the clutch Diaz can beat Jose, Wrong, Beltran, and three old guys named Delgado, Moises, and Green.
Learn your team before you talk smack.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:42 pm
Corey, I don’t disagree much with you. However, Santana’s closer to his prime than Hudson, and is probably more than slightly better than him. Also, I’ve made this mistake this offseason, but Green’s gone. He departed as a free agent.
But you’re right, our lineup is better than theirs, particularly considering the automatic out at catcher (Schneider), their very thin outfield depth at the corners, and their second baseman, Luis Castillo, a speedster whose basestealing ability has severely diminished, who’s 32 years old, has no power, and who’s due for a pretty big falloff pretty soon.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
@ Corey
Given Pedro’s injury concerns and history who knows what kind of pitcher he currently is. Smoltz is a known commodity and it is pretty good, Pedro who knows.
But Johan vs. Hudson, I love Hudson, I do. I think he’s underrated nationally and is probably a great guy to hang out with. But Johan Santana is the best pitcher in baseball and Tim Hudson is not in the top 10.
I do think the Braves lineup, assuming Bobby doesn’t hit Kotsay above 7th, is better than the Mets.
January 30th, 2008 at 5:03 pm
Telemahkos, that is the problem exactly. Mulvney and Humber may have been able to step in and provide 20+ decent starts when needed but there are no other players who can do that (And please, no one bring up Pelfrey. The guy is a bust as a starter). Santana improves them but they also open up a huge hole by trading away Humber and Mulvney.
January 30th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
@ Alex
I thought Green was gone, but didn’t know for a fact. I just didn’t really see much of an attempt to knock the Mets fans out of here, so since I hate Mutts, I’m going all in on debates.
January 30th, 2008 at 6:43 pm
WOW!!! sounds like a bunch of children talking trash about the neighbor who got the new toy they wanted…. Folks lets just face the facts here. The Mets stole Santana away from the Twins for a bag of baseballs because not one of those players would have seen more than garbage time with the Mets. Secondly I will repeat what I have said here already a few times, the Mets and Braves starters were a basic wash before this trade took place. After the trade since now we are moving the #1 to #2 and so forth in the Mets rotation the matchup is no longer even. You can not take injuries into account until they do or do not happen folks so lets just leave that out of the equation for the moment. If you go position for position the Mets hold the edge over the Braves also so what is all the crying in here about. Lets play out the year and see what happens. I understand the reason for all the discussion about the flaws of the Mets, it’s insecurity and inability to realize the shortcomings of the Braves. Why is it so hard to accept that the Mets have a better team on paper than the Braves do. For so many years the Mets were demolished by the Braves and now that the tables have turned (last two seasons) you Braves fans are going to cry because while the Mets are improving the Braves are losing the like of Andruw Jones? We dealt with your pitching dominance for a long time now deal with Johan Santana facing you at least 4 times a year. Pull all the stats that Larry has against Santana that was in what 6 at bats? Lets see how that .750 ave works out this season… Good luck hitting 3rd place this year and oh yeah LETS GO METS!!!!!!!!!
January 30th, 2008 at 6:48 pm
Look, if you’re going to be a troll, proper punctuation and grammar go a long way toward being taken seriously.
January 30th, 2008 at 6:54 pm
Look if your going to be an English teacher take it to a school. I hear they pay better than internet forums.
January 30th, 2008 at 6:58 pm
Oh btw Alex I see that you are much better at looking for typos than arguing your point about the Braves being such a good team and how acquiring Santana doesn’t really help the Mets gain the edge in the NL. Have some good points that goes a long way towards being taken seriously also.
January 30th, 2008 at 7:26 pm
Before the Santana trade, the Braves rotation was much better than the Mets rotation. Smoltz is better than Pedro, Hudson is much better than Maine, Glavine is better than Oliver Perez, Hampton is better than Hernandez, and Jurjjens, James, Reyes, Bennet, and Carlyle are all better than Pelfrey or Dave Williams. You can take injuries into account because some guys are just more prone to injury. If injuries didn’t matter, Donovan Mcnabb would still be deeply entrenched as the Eagles QB. As it is, he’ll probably be playing somewhere else next year. If you want a baseball example, Kerry Wood and Mark Prior would probably be in yearly contention for Cy Young awards if injuries didn’t count.
January 30th, 2008 at 7:35 pm
to the mets fans that come to this blog,
why are you here? seriously.
to the braves fans here,
mets have a better rotation than we do (on paper factoring in mike hampton not pitching effectively in 2008). the bullpens are a wash. offensively, we have a better right fielder, 2nd baseman, 1st baseman, and catcher. the mets have a much better ss and center fielder. both teams have huge questions of health and its just a moot point to argue whose the better team in f’in january. ignore the buffoons and dont become one. go watch a movie, exercise, do something besides entertaining the malnourished mlb bloggers.
January 30th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
First of all your comparisons or the pitching staffs are apparently very much based on your personal opinion because the numbers say otherwise. With the exception of Pedro who did not pitch but 5 starts last year the numbers for Smoltz, Hudson, Maine, and Perez are very similar. If you are going to pontificate and use injuries in your projections then you need to take Hampton out of your rotation to go along with Hernandez on the Mets side. The only place where the Braves might have held an edge was in the 5th starter spot which I will concede and congratulate you on the 1 extra win that edge would provide you. I did not say that injuries did not matter but simply that you can not use them to predict outcomes of anything because they are random and can happen to any player.
January 30th, 2008 at 7:42 pm
Ryan you made the same point I was making and thanks for calling me a buffoon, it’s the nicest thing I’ve been called this week. I will however have to disagree and tell you that your Braves bullpen is far and away better than the Mets pen. I would also argue the 2nd base position. I think Castillo provides better D and a more dynamic offensive threat rather than just a bit more power and RBI ability that Johnson provides.
January 30th, 2008 at 7:53 pm
My comparisons may be affected by my biases, but so are yours. You told me not to compare Hudson to Santana’s performance from last year, yet you continue to judge Maine and Perez based on last year alone. Maine’s career ERA is 4.19 compared to Hudson’s 3.51. Perez’s career ERA is 4.43 compared to glavine’s 3.51. Even if you take glavine’s ERA from the past 3 years, which may be closer to his projected performance, you get about 3.93. I’ll concede that when healthy, Pedro’s numbers are more impressive than Smoltz’s, but considering Pedro’s health issues, I’d say they break even, and that’s being generous to Pedro. Injuries don’t happen to just anyone. There are some people that just happen to get a lot of injuries because of the way their bodies are or their pitching styles are(i.e.Pedro). There are also some guys that fight through minor injuries and still manage to be very effective pitchers (i.e. Smoltz).
January 30th, 2008 at 7:58 pm
I think at this point, 2nd base is more of a wash. Kelly Johnson’s production could drop off or he could continue to improve, especially as far as his defense is concerned, while luis castillo could decline because of age or he could continue to hit for average and be some kind of a base stealing threat. At this point, neither of these guys are entrenched into what their production will be in the future, so it really could go either way.
January 30th, 2008 at 8:04 pm
You are correct I have used the numbers from last year to make my point while telling you differently when you made yours. Here is my answer to that. When judging pitchers like Santana and Hudson I tend to look at their complete body of work because they both have a good number of consistent years to draw an average from. When judging pitchers like Maine and Perez with limited histories I tend to use more recent numbers because I feel they are more accurate representations of their effectiveness. I may be wrong in my thinking there but I’m sure as a Braves fan you know plenty about pitching reclamation projects, you guys have made something out of nothing on more than a few occasions and to use the histories of some of those pitchers against them while they pitched well for the Braves would have been unfair, so I ask that the same logic be used with Maine and Perez. As far as injuries, I would say it’s fair to expect Hernandez to break down to some extent or another but he’s the probable #5 so Pelfrey filling in now and then is not a huge deal. Pedro on the other hand has been injured but aside form last year has rarely missed many starts on a season and well his career numbers speak for themselves. As I have said before I have never seen a big disparity between the Mets and Braves starting 5 I just think the Santana acquisition put the Mets rotation over the top as far has being the better of the two.
January 30th, 2008 at 8:04 pm
I’m willing to call 2nd a wash based on what you said being the truth.
January 30th, 2008 at 8:19 pm
If you look at a lot of the braves reclaimation projects, they had one or maybe even two good seasons, but almost all of them faded. Jaret Wright, John Thompson, John Burkett, Mike Remlinger, Jorge Sosa. All of these guys came from nowhere and fell off the table after one or two years of success.
January 30th, 2008 at 8:24 pm
That’s true. That being said I would say then that John Maine is the more questionable between him and Perez because Maine was an average minor league pitcher while Perez showed he had talent with the Pirates. That being said I think that Perez certainly has the bigger upside but IMO is the bigger question mark of the two while I think Maine is going to remain solid and put up his 12 to 15 wins and around 4 ERA and I think Perez could win 15 to 18 with a sub 4 ERA or could be 9-15 with a 5 ERA but I think both have shown that they could go from one year to the next (with Peterson as the pitching coach) and remain consistent at least from 06 to 07 and I see no reason for that not to continue.
January 30th, 2008 at 8:43 pm
Sorry, but I have to point out that Perez’s ‘06 was not exactly consistent with his ‘07 campaign.
January 30th, 2008 at 8:48 pm
No it was not but I said that his time with Rick Peterson was consistent from one year to the next. In other words he pitched well for the Mets in ‘06 and ‘07.
January 30th, 2008 at 8:50 pm
Especially in the playoffs.
January 30th, 2008 at 8:53 pm
He had seven regular season starts with the Mets in ‘06 and had a 1-3 record with a 6.38 ERA. Again, I wouldn’t exactly call that consistent.
January 30th, 2008 at 9:02 pm
Granted the numbers do not show it. He did however carry momentum over from the end of the season in which pitched well after starting very poorly into the playoffs, won a game there and continued to pitch well in the ‘07 season. I will not pin out hopes on his success but I do believe that he has shown enough to prove that he will provide a solid start at the very least and has the potential to become a #2 should be be able to pitch within himself more often. BTW the Braves do not fair very well against him, I believe he faced and beat the Braves 6 times last year.
January 30th, 2008 at 9:21 pm
Mets fans crack me up. I love how they are doing the same thing they were doing last year…crowning themselves division champs before Spring Training even begins. But guess what happened…
Well…uh…yeah.
So Mets fans, who you going to blame this year’s collapse on?
January 30th, 2008 at 9:29 pm
Those are big words from a fan of a team that ended up 4 games behind the team who had the collapse last season.
January 30th, 2008 at 9:37 pm
Wow, you’d think that Mets fans would be be celebrating after a win instead spinning weird points to talk down to Braves fans. A lot of this stuff is unjustifiable. Maine and Perez as good as Hudson and Smoltz? Look up the GB% and BB% for those player. “would take almost every position player on the Mets over any on the Braves” is absurd. “Every” over “any”? Even ignoring the gaps at C, 2B and both corner outfield spots, this is silly.
You guys have a lot to be excited about this year. You can definitely make a good argument for your team without resorting to shallow trolling.
January 30th, 2008 at 9:42 pm
Big Words? I’m not the one claiming a victory when there are still 162 games to be played.
January 30th, 2008 at 9:43 pm
if you call a few playoff starts the beginning of a trend, then I hope his august and september of last year is even moreso the beginning of a trend. He had a 5.19 ERA in august and a 4.45 ERA in september.
January 30th, 2008 at 9:47 pm
I never said Maine and Perez were as good as Hudson and Smoltz. I said their numbers last year were comparable. and what gaps do the Mets have at C or 2b? Schneider and Castillo are great defensive upgrades over what they had last year and Castillo is a better fit in the 2 slot in the BA than LoDuca was. As far as position players I will go position by position. C a wash because Mcann is better O but Schneider is better D, 1st base is again a wash, 2nd I will take what Castillo gives as he is a much better fit in the Met lineup but I may be able to give a wash there too. Shortstop well that’s a no brianer, Reyes is the best SS in the NL hands down on both O and D, I will take Wright over Larry @ 3rd due to his youth and the fact that he is not even at his prime while Larry is getting past his, Left field I will take Alou over Diaz with the only Cavet being that Alou won’t play as many games, Center well Beltran is a sight better than Kotsay, and Right field is the spot I will concede without any argument. Finally I will agree that I have reduced myself to shallow argument and that was not my intent but I have to admit I am having fun.
January 30th, 2008 at 9:50 pm
Tele,
That seemed to be more like the end of a longer trend he had going on prior to joining the Mets.
January 30th, 2008 at 9:52 pm
We can all hope right Craig. I am having fun pontificating. The truth of the matter is that a meteor could hit the earth and they would have to stop the baseball season due to lack of light from the dust cloud created by the meteor. Listen I am not claiming anything except my opinion of what might happen given what has recently transpired.
January 30th, 2008 at 10:06 pm
I meant august and september of 07. And either catcher or first base should not be a wash based on your arguments. You say schneider’s defense makes up for his offense, but you don’t mention defense in the first base argument. Tex is a old glover. Also your third base argument should also apply to first. Delgado is on the downswing, with averages in the .250s and .260s 3 of the past 4 years while Tex is young and on the upswing. Also, I wouldn’t quite say that chipper is deteriorating. His homerun, rbi, batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS+ totals have increased each of the past 3 years as well as his increase in mvp candidacy. Chipper has also improved his defense in the past few years and please tell me you agree that Chipper should have won the gold glove last year instead of david wright.
January 30th, 2008 at 10:07 pm
Jose Reyes is a fine defensive shortstop, but he’s not the best offensive shortstop in the NL. He’s not the best in the division. Obviously, Jimmy Rollins won the MVP last year. And Hanley Ramirez had a vastly better year than both. Hanley may not be a shortstop that much longer, but while he plays the position he’s the best hitting shortstop in the league.
January 30th, 2008 at 10:10 pm
Not to be add to a shallow conversation, but I would like to point out a few facts about Oliver Perez. For instance, his 4.43 ERA. If you look at his 5 1/2 years of service, he has only posted an ERA below 4 at 3 points in his career. Other than that, his ERA has not dropped below 5.38, and regularly sits in the mid 6 area. When are these 3 magical points where Perez was so spectacular. First when he was a rookie, then every time he changed teams. I think it is fair to predict Pelfrey for an ERA of 5+ this year based on this trend alone. I don’t care if he is 26, his stuff isn’t electric, I think its just because a lot of guys in the NL East hadn’t seen a lot of him. Pelfrey isn’t even a #4 starter, he is a #6 starter.
January 30th, 2008 at 10:14 pm
Maine/Perez aren’t comparable to Hudson/Smoltz though. They’re straight-up outclassed. Maine has a better K ratio than Hudson, but both are sizably beaten on BB and GB.
You’re going to need to throw out some serious metrics if you want to suggest Schneider is a wash with McCann. That just falls flat on it’s face.
Castillo is 32, not a great runner anymore, and Kelly Johnson has him by near 100 points in OPS. This is silly.
Reyes is probably better than Escobar, because Escobar’s numbers were inflated last year, but Reyes still has a lower OPS. In addition, he is not hands down the best defensive shortstop in the NL, that is blatant homerism. Tulowitzki is MUCH better, and Visquel is better too. Everett would be better be he is out of the league now. Like I said, you probably have the advantage here, but the gap isn’t as big as you suggest.
Tex is 27 (peak) and OPSed over 1.000 in the NL. Delgado is 35 and OPSed lower than our middle infielders.
Wright and Chipper are a close to a wash IMO - Wright has youth and reliability, but Chipper definitely out-ratioed him last year. Actually, hell, Wright will probably have a better 08.
Despite being 41, Alou had a damn fine year. I doubt he can keep it up though. Regardless, if either team has an advantage, I guess it isn’t that big. Unless Alou breaks his hip.
CF and RF I think we can agree on.
January 30th, 2008 at 10:16 pm
Furthermore, no, one cannot predict injuries, but based on a player’s past levels of service, one can certainly predict how many innings a guy will pitch. For instance, Pedro is an amazing pitcher. However, he could not consistently start for over 200 innings before his major re-constructive surgery. El Duque, also impressive when healthy, absolutely maxes out at 150 innings and will probably not make it there.
January 30th, 2008 at 10:19 pm
Tele, you got me on the first base thing I didn’t apply my own logic. I would attribute Larry’s improvement in the numbers only to the fact that he played at least 30-40 more games last season than in the previous two. As far as the GG I think the reasoning behind giving it to Wright was two fold first because he had more chances than anyone else in the running even though his fielding percentage was not the best among them but secondly and more likely I think it was a makeup award because he didn’t win the MVP which he would probably have won if the Mets had not collapsed. Alex as far as Reyes is concerned I was talking all around offensive skill. There is no player in either league as dynamic or dangerous when you consider all aspects of offense. He does it all. He hits for average, can hit for power, gets on base via small ball i.e. bunting well, steals bases at a very high rate and success %, and scores a lot of runs, and drives runs in from the leadoff spot (81 in ‘06 and 57 in ‘07). All around I would have to say he is the best shortstop in the NL.
January 30th, 2008 at 10:23 pm
Exactly my point…a lot can happen between now and “what has recently transpired”. I mean, you can say that Santana’s downslide “seemed to be more like the end of a longer trend he had going on prior to joining the Mets” but the truth is nobody knows. He may be fine…he may have some serious arm issues. The only way to know is to wait and see what happens.
You and I both know that it is not uncommon for a long term, big money pitcher contract to end up hurting a team more than helping. That could be the case here. But it might not be. Santana could turn out to be one of those guys who has an arm that will hold out. We just have to wait and see.
Mets fans and Braves fans can duke it out on forums for ages and no conclusion will ever be reached. You can have all the fun you want pontificating but to me the real fun comes during the season. You cannot deny that during the season when we see Smoltz vs. Santana on the mound then there will be electricity in the air that cannot be described. The excitement will be incredible. That is when “fun” happens.
Crunch all the numbers you’d like, breakdown the positional advantages all night, heck, write a book about it if you’d like. Make whatever claim (or “opinion” since you like that word better) you feel fits. I don’t care about what has “recently transpireed”…I care about what will transpire.
and what exactly will transpire???? We’ll just have to wait and see…
January 30th, 2008 at 10:23 pm
Erik, Jimmy Rollins is the first player in HISTORY to have 30 doubles, 20 triples, 30 homers and 30 steals in one season. He is far more dangerous, hands down. That is why he won the MVP. Reyes is dangerous, but Rollins is a phenomenon.
January 30th, 2008 at 10:28 pm
I still think I would go with jimmy rollins over jose reyes as the best NL shortstop because of the tremendous difference in power. Also, jimmy rollins very well may be better at stealing bases. reyes had 78 steals and was caught 21 times while rollins stole 41 bases and was only caught 6 times.
January 30th, 2008 at 10:30 pm
I’d take Rollins, HanRam, or Tulowitzki all over Reyes, probably.
January 30th, 2008 at 10:33 pm
Tulowitzki’s offensive numbers are inflated by Coors, and HanRam is an absolute butcher at Defense. Rollins is the best, but Reyes is a close second.
January 30th, 2008 at 10:33 pm
Criag,
I am with you my friend 100%. I can not wait to see how this all plays out. I agree with what you said about that Mets Braves match ups during the season they are going to be electric and I can’t wait for them to go down. I am posting here rather than on the Mets site because I want to hear a differing opinion not one that everyone on the board can go “yeah” to. I think this is a cool way to pass the time between now spring training. That’s why I’m here. Andrew that line is very similar to Reyes’ ‘06 line of 30 doubles, 17 triples, 19 homers, 81 RBI, and a .300 BA., and 64 steals. While I am not taking anything away from Rollins I think Reyes is better . Granted Rollins power production is and most likely will always be better than Reyes’ but I think that more a product of their roles rather than abilities.
January 30th, 2008 at 10:34 pm
Rollins is very overrated, Hanley is the best offensive SS. Tulowitzki will probably be the best overall soon as well as the best defensive SS.
January 30th, 2008 at 10:35 pm
though I use the term close in a relative sense. Escobar is hard to place here, I think the next two seasons will be very telling. He has the potential to be named among these guys someday. We’ll have to see what happens. I just hope he doesn’t have a serious sophomore slump.
January 30th, 2008 at 10:36 pm
And I do agree with the Mets fans, I can’t wait to see the season play out instead of sitting here speculating and passing time with idle debate. I can’t wait for Baseball season.
January 30th, 2008 at 10:40 pm
Rollins also was one of the worst MVP winners in the history of the award. He wasn’t but the third best player on his own team. Chipper, Wright, Reyes, Hanley, Cabrera, Howard, Utley, Holliday, Pujols, and Fielder all had much better offensive seasons than Rollins.
January 30th, 2008 at 10:47 pm
Escobar doesn’t have the kind of speed or power potential to be the kind of electric player that those guys are. Lillibridge has the tools to be that type of player, but it remains to be seen how good he’ll eventually be.
January 30th, 2008 at 10:47 pm
TMac I agree. But even though they say that making the playoffs does not count you can bet it does when it comes to MVP voting. Rollins proves this.
January 30th, 2008 at 10:47 pm
Tulowitzki’s numbers were inflated by Coors, but he still had strong park-adjusted numbers And his defense is not just good, it’s ridiculous. I think has the edge.
HanRam maybe not because Reyes is a plus defender, but my GOD his offensive numbers are huge. I just looked up his +/- though…yeah, he’s actually worse than Jeter.
January 30th, 2008 at 10:49 pm
TMac, I would love to believe that Chipper had a better offensive season than Rollins, but he didn’t. During the first part of the season, Howard couldn’t have hit the ground with the bat if not for gravity. Utley broke his hand. Rollins carried that team to keep them in the race, and continued to perform down the stretch which is why the Phillies ended up winning the division. Pujols’ season was not all that great (for Pujols). Prince Fielder I think can be argued as having at least as good a season as Rollins, especially as he carried the Brewers the entire season, but Rollins actually brought the pennant home. Hanley will never win until he learns to play defense. I kind of feel bad for Wright (not really, but he does deserve sympathy) as he continued to perform while the rest of the Mets looked like lost children down the stretch. Holliday had a great season, and giving the MVP to him would have been justifiable as well. All in all, it had to be either Rollins, Fielder, or Holliday. The voters chose Rollins.
January 30th, 2008 at 10:54 pm
and Gruco, Tulo’s physical stats away from home were .256/.327/.393/.720. None of that is spectacular. I think he will develop into a good player, but he wouldn’t have even been thought about in Rookie of the Year debates if it weren’t for Coors inflation, even with his spectacular defense.
January 30th, 2008 at 10:56 pm
kj last year….obp .375 16 homeruns and 52 extra base hits
castillo- .362 1 homerun and only 25 extra base hits total.
both scored 91 runs.
kj drove in 33 more runs last year and will probably only get better with age. he’s not the type of player to have a “down” year (always been plate disciplined). i was purely talking offensive output and kj is far superior to castillo. 10 more stolen bases for castillo doesnt make a difference if he cant do anything but slap the ball around. in this day and age, you have to have some pop.
2nd base is not a wash.
any other position you might think debatable?
i think someone said something about doing the research first.
and, i didnt call you a buffoon, unless you took it that way, then i did.
January 30th, 2008 at 11:00 pm
It doesn’t matter if you believe it or not, Chipper had a much better offensive season than Jimmy Rollins. You know what else Rollins lead the league in last year, outs. A player who has 700+ plate appearances with only a .344 OBP isn’t good. He’s got power for a short stop and plays pretty good defense. He hit in front of Howard and Utley so that means a lot of runs scored. I’d take a player with a 1.029 OPS vs. .875. A lineup of nine Chipper Jones would score 9.5 runs, one with nine JRolls would score 6.9 runs.
If you’re going to give Tullo and Holliday benefits for playing in Coors then you need to give JRoll benefits for playing in Philly whose park numbers are also incredibly inflated.
January 30th, 2008 at 11:01 pm
I understand the concept of winning as a prereq for an MVP award. I was just pointing out players with better offensive seasons than Rollins.
January 30th, 2008 at 11:02 pm
Home away splits are generally less valuable than park adjusted numbers, as often people do particularly better or worse at home, regardless of parks. Tulowitzki OPS+ was 108. Not the stuff legends are made of(unless you’re a top tier defense shortstop), but that was never my point. It’s better than Jose Reyes at 103.
January 30th, 2008 at 11:02 pm
I didn’t mean to say Rollins wasn’t ‘good’, I meant to say wasn’t great.
January 30th, 2008 at 11:09 pm
Chipper OPS+ 166
Rollins OPS+ 118
I mean, I know OPS+ is an imperfect number, and were it close it would be worth going into more detal (such as the huge OPB difference). But, yeah, Chipper had a better offensive year than Rollins. That, and who “meant the most to their team” or whatever, two different arguments.
January 30th, 2008 at 11:20 pm
And third base is definately a wash. And that is being generous to Wright after the year Chipper had. He had better rate stats than Wright across the board, and his counting stats were only 1 or 2 behind in most major categories with ALOT fewer games.
Alex, you say first is a wash? You are absolutely nuts. Tex will blo