5/2 Game Thread: Bring On the Reds (and Hopefully Hudson’s Velocity)
After a horrible 1-4 road trip that saw John Smoltz go on the DL and relinquish his spot in the rotation for the foreseeable future (which I emphatically denied could ever happen), I couldn’t be happier for the Braves to be back at home. They should be feeling a bit better-rested, after an off day on Monday and an off day yesterday, and they’ll soon be able to enjoy an off day next Monday too. Bobby Cox may have many failings, but he is generally good at getting a team to be able to shake off a loss — he doesn’t put fire in the belly, but he usually can keep his guys on an even keel.
But even keels won’t matter if we don’t have 5 guys to trot out in a starting rotation. So let’s look at the state of the staff. This isn’t an official depth chart, but I think it’s a good way of visualizing who we have.
1) Tim Hudson, a solid #2 starter last year who has had location and velocity issues in each of his last three starts, becomes the #1 starter. With Smoltz’s injury, the pressure’s on him to stay healthy enough to pitch, but if he continues to have trouble locating the ball and getting his usual velocity, that could be a symptom of a problem we can’t afford him to have. Time will tell if we need to keep worrying or if he will be able to be the pitcher he was in 2007.
2) Jair Jurrjens, a guy I stupidly didn’t think was ready for prime time, entered the season as our #5 guy, but, after a brilliant April in which he was both our most reliable starter and our healthiest, he’s easily our #2 starter. He’s been simply terrific, a guy I’ll look forward to cheering for years to come, and although he’s bound to come to earth a bit, his underlying components suggest that his success so far has not been a complete fluke, with a 6.57 K/9, 2.15 K/BB, and an FIP a half-run lower than his ERA.
3) Tom Glavine, who went on the DL for the first time in his career but came back and gave us a nice 6-inning, 2-run performance, will be an ideal #3 if he can keep defying time, K/BB ratio and other pitching components, and his aging body. His ERA is 2.60 right now, and we all know that won’t last. But if he can keep it at 4.00 or under, and give us 170 innings in around 28 starts, he will have been well worth the money. All we can do is keep our fingers crossed.
4) Jeff Bennett, emergency starter extraordinaire, is basically the #4 at this point. He’s done everything we could possibly ask of him so far, making three starts (including one when Mike Hampton got injured during warmup tosses) and pitching a fourth de facto start in the game when Glavine came out after 16 pitches. He has a 4.00 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and no unearned runs allowed. His FIP and BB/9 aren’t great, but his starts have come on little to no rest — his first start came one day after a bullpen appearance; he pitched 4 innings in the Glavine game a day after a bullpen appearance; and his second start came 2 days after a bullpen appearance. In short, he’s been abused. If he can get regular rest, he could continue to be an effective back-of-the-rotation starter.
5) Right now, this is probably between Richmond teammates Jo-Jo Reyes and Chuck James. Reyes is pitching better — 5 starts, 1.17 ERA, 25 K and only 8 BB — but neither is averaging more than 5 innings a start. Reyes has pitched 23 innings in 5 starts, and Chuck has pitched 10 innings in 2 starts. Even for a 5th starter, that’s not great, especially considering that John Smoltz’s major rationale for leaving the rotation was that he felt he wouldn’t be a useful starter if he could only go 5 innings. Still, assuming they could manage a sub-6.00 ERA, either of them would be better than our #5s from last year, Mark Redman, Kyle Davies, Lance Cormier, Buddy Carlyle, and a younger Jo-Jo Reyes.
What else is there? Well, there is Buddy Carlyle lurking in the bullpen, and Charlie Morton’s still trying to harness his control: 5 starts, 26 2/3 innings — averaging slightly more than 5 innings a start, which is nice — with 23 K and 11 BB. But the team felt that he would need several months in Richmond to be ready for prime time, and considering his occasional control meltdowns, like giving up 5 walks in 4 2/3 innings in his last start, this is clearly a sound idea.
Also, as Tim Dierkes spotted on MLB Trade Rumors, it looks like the Braves are heavily scouting the Cardinals, the implication being that we’re interested in Anthony Reyes. (According to Jayson Stark, the Cards want “an upper-echelon prospect back, plus ‘another piece.’”) If anyone ever needed a change of scenery, it’s him. John Sickels had him as the Cardinals’ #1 prospect in 2005 and 2006, after he tore up the minor leagues (389 K and 76 BB in 356 1/3 IP, only 26 HR, with a 3.23 ERA) . But he’s been injured a lot, and not great when healthy: his major league BB/9 and HR/9 are nearly double their minor league marks, and his strikeouts have fallen. Still, his major league K/9 is almost 7, and his K/BB is nearly 2, which ain’t bad for the back of the rotation; this guy was supposed to be an ace, after all.
Most importantly, after a year in which he lost his first 10 decisions and went 13 starts before he got his first win, then got demoted to the bullpen, he could badly use a shot of confidence and a sign that a team wants him. He’s only 26, so he has time. Considering the state of our bullpen, if we could acquire him for cheap, for a few of our underachieving prospects — Eric Campbell, say, or the probably untradeable Kala Ka’aihue, or the currently blocked Barbaro Canizares — he might be well worth having.
Tonight we’ll face Edinson Volquez, who until this year was an underachiever but now is just a force of nature. Hopefully he’ll bring out our best, and Adam Dunn will strike out a lot. I’m keeping my fingers crossed.
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32 Responses to “5/2 Game Thread: Bring On the Reds (and Hopefully Hudson’s Velocity)”
May 2nd, 2008 at 2:21 pm
I can’t wait to see Jo Jo Reyes and Edison Volquez pitch tonight. The Braves hitters have to be patient against the hard throwing Volquez and get the pitch they want and hammer it. Getting productive outs and mininmizing scoring damage is going to be key for the Braves victory.
May 2nd, 2008 at 2:24 pm
I don’t see the point in trying to trade for Anthony Reyes when we have two very good young pitchers in Jo Jo Reyes and Charlie Morton. I also agree a change of teams will do wonders for A. Reyes, but I rather will go with J. Reyes or Morton. They will probably pitch as good or better than him. Plus, it will not cost us 2 prospects in return.
May 2nd, 2008 at 3:01 pm
D’Andre, I know what you mean, but neither Jo-Jo nor Charlie has done anything at the major league level, and even though they both have great stuff there’s no guarantee they ever will. Remember, Chuck James is the most successful homegrown starting pitcher the Braves have had since Kevin Millwood, 10 years ago — so, clearly, you can never have too many guys stockpiled. I don’t want to overpay for anyone, but if Reyes could be had for something less than an exorbitant fee, I’d love to see if we could get him going.
May 2nd, 2008 at 3:44 pm
I think D’Andre’s point is that neither has Anthony Reyes and it would be dumb to trade for him.
May 2nd, 2008 at 4:02 pm
Of course Anthony Reyes hasn’t done anything yet — if he had, they wouldn’t be trying to get rid of him.
Look, if you have 100 hotshot pitching prospects, 1 of them may become an all-world talent, 10 may become regulars, 20 of them may become occasionally useful and then wash out of the league in 5 years, and then the rest may never make it. TINSTAAPP: There is no such thing as a pitching prospect. Nearly all of them fail to live up to expectations, so the only way to hedge your bets is to have as many as possible.
May 2nd, 2008 at 6:01 pm
What do you guys think about us getting Kevin Millwood instead? I’m not a big fan of A. Reyes.
May 2nd, 2008 at 6:36 pm
I like the idea of getting Kevin Millwood. I really don’t like his contract though.
May 2nd, 2008 at 6:50 pm
Room for optimism:
1. if he continues to have trouble locating the ball and getting his usual velocity, that could be a symptom of a problem
2.. although he’s bound to come to earth a bit,
3. His ERA is 2.60 right now, and we all know that won’t last
4.. In short, he’s been abused
5.Jo-Jo Reyes and Chuck James. Reyes is pitching better — 5 starts, 1.17 ERA, 25 K and only 8 BB — but neither is averaging more than 5 innings a start.
This is just part of the story of a team that is limping along . Its going to be a long season. I suggest you divert your hopes onto fantasy baseball where you choose your players from across the league. Have fun.
May 2nd, 2008 at 6:58 pm
I am saying, we’re better off keeping and using Jo Jo Reyes or Charlie Morton instead of Anthony Reyes. Reyes has an career 5.46 ERA and he is 26 years old. He has had plenty of time to find his grove in the majors and hasn’t yet found it on a consistent basis. We are better off developing and using Morton and J.Reyes, because they have more upside than A.Reyes.
NEW MONTH, NEW ATTITUDE!!! GO BRAVES!!!
(bad bottom of the half first inning for Tex)
May 2nd, 2008 at 7:40 pm
Alex, dude I thought that Jurrgens was not ready either so we were both wrong. But heck I am glad to be wrong on something like that.
Anthony Reyes? ehhhhh. I think JoJo Reyes is a poor mans Anthony Reyes. lol. I really dont know what Anthony Reyes is worth so dont know what I would give up for him. I dont think he is worth a Brandon Jones or a Lillibridge. So I dont know. I have no idea what Reyes is worth.
May 2nd, 2008 at 9:23 pm
Was hampton mentioned at all? Anyone know when he’s due back?
May 2nd, 2008 at 10:48 pm
Hampton is not due back.
But tonight’s game was pretty good. Hudson was awesome.
May 2nd, 2008 at 10:55 pm
Well, one little update, Hampton is considering RETIRING. If he can’t come back, I would rather see the money come off the books so maybe we can make a move.
http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080502&content_id=2628344&vkey=news_atl&fext=.jsp&c_id=atl
I really don’t think there is much more to say about it.
May 2nd, 2008 at 11:01 pm
Why on earth would he retire when he’s still owed money. Leaving the prorated amount of 15 million on the table, yeah he isn’t going to retire.
May 2nd, 2008 at 11:09 pm
AAR, my understanding on Anthony Reyes is that he has a very good fastball and nothing else…at least that’s the diagnosis from John Sickels. If that’s the case, he can PERHAPS be a good reliever and not a good starter which we need. He is definitely nothing better than what we already have and not worth to send one decent prospect to the Cards. If we are getting Wainwright back, then it’s a different story.
May 3rd, 2008 at 12:15 am
If Hampton retires, he better give the Braves some of his salary. You can’t just quit on your teammates and fans, because you’ve a hurt breast or nipple (I just wanted to say that). Hopefully Hampton takes 3-5 weeks off or whatever, then start to make progress. I have faith in you Hampton (no lie).
Brilliant game pitched by Tim Hudson tonight. That was clearly his best game pitched all season in my book. I love the way how he kept changing speeds this game. He had a very good hitting Reds lineup off balanced and looking foolish. Plus, a great clutch homer from Brian McCann really helped out.
I am looking forward to seeing the new and improved 2008 verision of Jo Jo Reyes. It will be much needed if Reyes can copy the way Jurrjens has pitched and attack the strike zone. Reyes last season really was scared of contact from major league hitters last year I thought. He seemed to nibble around the plate and that was his down fall. The ending of his deliever also made him fall a couple of times on the mound and that messed up his control.
Hopefully Frank Wren will bring in Derrick Turnbow to replace the sorry Chris Resop and trade for a SP like Kevin Millwood. This could be Glavine, Teixeira, Cox, and Smoltz’s last season in a Braves uniform. So it’s going to be essential for Frank Wren to acquire another young quality SP before the deadline. Lets try to at least make it to the post season for them.
May 3rd, 2008 at 8:21 am
I don’t blame the individual athletes for situations like this. It isn’t Hampton’s fault that the MLB signed some dumb agreement that you can’t ‘fire’ players. Hampton is owed 15 million dollars, he shouldn’t feel compelled to give that back. MLB should be compelled to figure out a way to be able to fire players.
May 3rd, 2008 at 1:33 pm
TMac, why should teams be able to “fire” players? Since they can’t (and they know they can’t), why can’t the teams just avoid being dumb enough to throw around eight-year contracts?! There’s nothing wrong with 100% guaranteed contracts.
D’Andre, hell no on Turnbow. He’s wild, inconsistent, has trouble stranding inherited runners and is prone to just abandon his slider sometimes and throw all fastballs (no matter how hard you throw, major-league hitters will burn you if you only throw heaters). He’s a headcase besides…NO thank you. I don’t mind getting rid of Resop, but let’s replace him with Stockman or Medlen or Sung Ki Jung, not some Brewers washout.
Now, on to the Anthony Reyes situation…I happen to like Reyes. Baseball Prospectus says he’s “a command guy with third-starter stuff”, and that sounds pretty much like what we need. I am certainly not inclined to give up top prospects for him, but I think a rotation that includes Hudson, Glavine, Jurrjens and two out of the collection of James, Bennett and the Reyes boys could turn out to be pretty solid. Plus the extra depth allows you to not require any of them to rack up excessive IP totals. Again, I do NOT want to see Frank Wren send a highly touted prospect to the Cardinals for Reyes, but I’m not sure Reyes is such a bad idea to consider.
May 3rd, 2008 at 1:44 pm
Tom, you know I’m with you on Reyes, and I also agree with you on Turnbow. Why would he be better than Resop? They have the same fastball and the same problem with finding the plate; plus, Turnbow is a convicted PED user and a certifiable headcase, while Resop just sucks. Turnbow wouldn’t be worth the reclamation effort. We’re better off just hoping the Mets pick him up and he pitches like Victor Zambrano.
May 3rd, 2008 at 2:07 pm
Just as a side note, Julio Franco officially retired from professional baseball today at the age of 49. He’s definitely one of those guys I could see slipping into the hall of fame after a couple of ballots, more because the type of person he was than his stats.
May 3rd, 2008 at 2:49 pm
Julio won’t make it — Dale Murphy won’t make it, and he’s probably the nicest guy who ever played baseball — but he’s a fascinating story. Bringing Julio back to the majors was one of John Schuerholz’s finest moments. He made our team immeasurably better. I’ll miss him.
May 3rd, 2008 at 2:58 pm
Tom, What do you think Anthony Reyes is worth? What would you give up for him?
May 3rd, 2008 at 3:01 pm
Yeah if Dale Murphy is not goin to the Hall of Fame after 2 MVP awards NO way on earth Julio gets in. And Dale and Julio were BOTH well liked and respected in the game of baseball. Alot of people think the Hall of Fame JUST means great stats and that is a criteria but I think it also means how you handle your fame on the playing field and off the playing field. But unfortunately MOST think it means great numbers which is really a shame.
May 3rd, 2008 at 3:08 pm
There is one big reason I disagree that he has no chance. Had Julio stayed in the US for the couple of seasons he was in Japan and Korea (he was still a productive major leaguer), he would probably be over 3,000 hits. Whether or not the voters take that into account is a different story, but certainly that and the fact that he played until he was 48, and holds numerous records, makes him a candidate to get in at some point.
May 3rd, 2008 at 5:04 pm
Jack Quinn’s the guy whose records he broke, and Quinn isn’t in the Hall of Fame, nor ever will be. (This is not to say he shouldn’t be. Of pitchers of that era, he has a much better case than Jess Haines, for example.) The records Julio set weren’t sexy, even though they were 70 years old and may never be broken. But “Oldest Player” records aren’t the sort of things that catch Hall voters’ eyes. He only finished in the top 10 of MVP voting once, and was an All-Star only 3 times. That’s simply not enough. And of shortstops of his era, Alan Trammell was, of course, much, much better.
Then again, Trammell probably hurt his case with his misbegotten managerial career. I’m not sure there are any other borderline Hall candidates who sunk their own chances of admission by being a poor manager, but it’s very possible that he did.
May 3rd, 2008 at 5:05 pm
I just put up a post on Julio.
May 3rd, 2008 at 5:10 pm
Quinn was also a pitcher I believe. It’s not that Julio set the records that would give him a chance to get in. They are just yet another thing on his resume but it’s that if he had been playing in the US, he would be over 3,000 hits and a good number of those guys are in the hall of fame.
May 3rd, 2008 at 6:38 pm
braves#1, that’s a good question and I don’t really have a good answer for you. The Cards are contending this year, so they aren’t necessarily just looking for a package of prospects. They don’t really have anything special on the middle infield, and they have an oft-injured third baseman, so I’d think about giving up Martin Prado if they were interested. Ruben Gotay and Omar Infante would then be our utility infielders, plus Diory Hernandez is really looking ML-ready down at AAA.
Aside from that, Talking Chop has one of my favorite Braves prospect lists (http://www.talkingchop.com/story/2007/10/29/101328/75). I wouldn’t give up anybody in the top 10, but a couple of guys out of the bottom 35 could get a deal done.
So Prado and one of the Rome lefties (like Chad Rodgers) maybe? All that to say…I really don’t know. It’s the kind of thing where I can evaluate a deal if someone else comes up with it (like Frank Wren) but I’m admittedly pretty bad at creating these trade proposals off the top of my head.
May 3rd, 2008 at 7:20 pm
Charlie Morton is gonna be a real good ball player….6′4 stud with a 12-6 curve
May 3rd, 2008 at 8:01 pm
Matt, got a quick question. Based off the email address you listed, I’d assume you’re at Sacred Heart. Would that be the Sacred Heart in Fairfield?
May 4th, 2008 at 9:02 am
Interesting list, Tom. Already, we’ve traded #8, #12, #15, and #23, Devine, Richmond, Ascanio, and Fontaine.
May 4th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
Alex, just so you know that isn’t my list, nor did I contribute to it in anyway. But I think it’s a solid list because a) I believe in the “wisdom of crowds”, and it compiles the opinions of several different fans; b) it’s deep (i.e., not just a top 10 list).
I think the point is that Richmond, Ascanio, and Fontaine all had some value, but we aren’t very likely to miss them. I’d like to keep that top 10 intact if at all possible, but the rest of the list is more or less expendable.
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