5/12 — I’m Ignoring the First Game, So Here’s a Thread for the Second
Following an absolutely abominable 5-0 loss to the Pirates this afternoon, in which they got shut out while leaving 15 runners on base, the Braves are now 18-18. By now, I’m sure you’ve heard that they are 14-4 at home and 4-14 on the road. They’re also 1-5 against the Pirates, a team against whom they suck for no apparent reason.
It’s rainy and cold in Pittsburgh — it seems to be rainy and cold everywhere. Jair Jurrjens was blowing on his hands a lot. Greg Norton is playing first base for Mark Teixeira, and I’m sure Scott Boras will find a way to turn that into positive spin.
The Braves are on the verge of being swept by the Pittsburgh Pirates. Let’s think about that for a second, guys. Don’t do it.
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73 Responses to “5/12 — I’m Ignoring the First Game, So Here’s a Thread for the Second”
May 12th, 2008 at 3:36 pm
We’re winning!
May 12th, 2008 at 4:02 pm
I think Bobby took my suggestion and backhanded everyone on the team after that first game because they are playing with a fire under their @$$ now offensively.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
I hope so, Andrew. Each member of the team deserves to be slapped far more than once for the way they played.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
Well, we won 1 of 4. That ain’t terrible, Its better than being swept. At the beginning of this series I was hoping for 2 wins.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
Edo, I would have hoped for so much better, but now I guess I’m just grateful we didn’t do even worse. These blowouts, coming off awful losses, are strangely disspiriting — why couldn’t we have gotten a few of these runs when we needed them? — but a win’s a win, and nothing’s better.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
Or, as former Russian Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin so famously said, “Хотелось как лучше, получилось как всегда” — “We hoped for better, but it turned out the way it always does.”
May 12th, 2008 at 5:14 pm
For the time being I am adjusting my standards of satisfaction for this team. .500 seems to be their performance zone. So I will be pleased, but not happy with that until things dramatically change, one way or the other.
May 12th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
Well, it’s official.
May 12th, 2008 at 5:30 pm
It seems to me that teams are now making sure that they have a lefty on the mound when facing the Braves. Sometimes skipping the guy who would regularly pitch just to get said lefty in the game. THis makes sense, because the Braves are top heavy with left handed hitters, and that is Tex and Chipper’s weaker side.
Aside from that, until Frenchy, Tex, Diaz, and Johnson become more consistant, expect to see alot of up and down games. Our pitching staff and BP are not good enough, after Hudson and JJ, to win alot of close ballgames, up to this point. We have to rely on the offense to pick us up. And we are too undisciplined at the plate. I can’t understand why they won’t give Frenchy a couple of days off, because he really needs it, despite having a good game two.
I think this is going to be another disappointing season unless we make a few trades that can spark this team. We need a legit leadoff guy. Someone with some speed to put pressure on the defense and pitcher. That’s what separates the Mets and Phillies and even the Marlins from the Braves. They have guys that can reak havoc on the bases and manufacture runs, Braves have to hope for the 3 run homer and that’s why guys are hacking away at everything and making a guy like Duke look like a Cy Young candidate.
Also, We need a legit number 2 or 3 starter. Someone who can eat innings and give the BP a break. having the 4 through 5 with Reyes, James, Carlyle, Bennett isn’t good enough to compete for long. Glavine doesn’t look to me that he has much left, so I would slide him in 4 or 5 slot, if we could sign a guy like say Blanton.
May 12th, 2008 at 7:57 pm
braves4life, it does seem like we try for the 3 run homer too much and you know whats funny about that is we are really NOT a homerun hitting team other than Chipper and Tex. Really if you look at our team Chipper, Tex, and McCann(he hits alot of homers for a Catcher) are the ONLY real legit homer hitters on the team. Yeah you would think that Frenchy would be on that list but he is not cause I dont know if he is gonna hit 25 homers, 19 homers or 15 homers this year. And if its 15 homers not too good of power for a RF. Diaz is not a homerun hitter, Kotsay will be lucky to hit 15 homers, Escobar is not a homerun hitter, and KJ is not a homerun hitter he can get a hold of a few though. But yet for SOME reason this team tries for the 3 run homerun. The sooner this team REALIZES that they are NOT a homerun hitting team THEN this team might start lookin like a World Series Contender instead of a Pretender.
And I also agree that we need a TRUE leadoff hitter but who will we get? Maybe Freel? Not too many options out there. I would not mind seeing Escobar leading off and Kotsay batting second OR Kotsay batting leadoff and Escobar stay as the number 2 hitter and bat KJ 7th in the order.
And yeah I also agree that we do need a TRUE Number 2 or 3 starter. A Burnett or Blanton type. I just think that there team will want SOOOO much in return and they just are not worth it. If we could get away with trading Lillibridge, Jones, and James for Blanton then I would do that in a heartbeat but I just dont believe Beane would settle for that. And I just would not offer more than that because Blanton is more of a number 3 than a number 2.
May 12th, 2008 at 8:42 pm
Braves#1,
I agree. And I think Freel would be a perfect fit. I was hoping that the Braves would have given him a look see instead of settling for Kotsay. But, we can’t really complain about Kots, because he has been FAR more productive than Andruw Jones.
I agree about not giving up the farm for a pitcher. But to contend this year, we need to make a trade for someone in the rotation. Freddy Garcia maybe? I don’t know, I’m not in love with the idea of Anthony Reyes, however, he is just too much of a question mark for me to feel comfortable, we need someone who will have an immediate impact.
Again, without speed and a decent rotation (BP should be set when Gonzo, Smoltz and Soriano come back) we are a 500 team.
May 12th, 2008 at 8:48 pm
By the way, what is the latest on Hampton? I know we can’t depend on him this year, and I for one will be one grateful Bravo fan when his contract is finally vacated, BUT what a shot in the arm if we could pencil him in the #4 or #5 spot, that would negate the need for a trade, and keep the farm system intact. I have a feeling that if we did try to get a Blanton or whoever, the conversation would start with possibly Hanson, Heyward, Rorhbaugh….
May 12th, 2008 at 8:51 pm
Nothing new on Hampton since his setback and lets not put to much stock in him even when he is back. We don’t know how good he’ll be and even if he pitches well, he still won’t be able to eat a lot of innings. It would be nice to get some production out of him however.
May 12th, 2008 at 8:55 pm
I positively cannot wait till his contract is over. What a bust!!!
May 13th, 2008 at 12:12 am
Braves4life and braves#1, I actually disagree with you both rather strongly. The Braves ARE a power hitting team. This year, we’re 8th in the league in homers but 3rd in slugging percentage; last year, we were 6th in homers and 6th in SLG%, and we led the league in homers and this (3rd in SLG%), 6th in the league in 2007, and we led the league in homers and slugging in 2006. 2006-2008, we’re 5th in the league in homers, and second in SLG%. We don’t lack for power.
In my opinion, frankly, we play far too damn much small ball. We’re 8th in the league in bunts, but only one bunt out of 6th place — in other words, if Yunel had gotten that bunt down instead of breaking his finger, we’d be 6th. We were 5th in the league last year, and 5th in 2006. A team that has as much power as we do doesn’t need to bunt as often as we do.
And, obviously, bunting has the added danger of injury, which simply makes it even more inadvisable much of the time; we certainly don’t need one of our best hitters to waste an out just to advance a runner when he has a .399 OBP, or a 39.9% chance of reaching base without giving up an out.
May 13th, 2008 at 1:27 am
Alex are you serious? This team needs to play MORE small ball. We get folks on but we CANT get them in. We get them at second with no outs and cant get them to third or we get them to third with less than 2 outs and CANT get them in.
Dude I dont care what the stats say about our homeruns and stuff we are NOT a homerun hitting team. Only Chipper, Tex, and McCann(cause he hits alot for a catcher) are the only real homerun threats in our lineup. Dude it is way too early to look at those homerun stats. But if you clearly look at our team you would know that this is NOT a homerun hitting team. Heck actually Chipper has said that he is NOT a homerun hitter (although he actually is. haha) Diaz is not gonna hit alot especially with him platooning with Blanco. Blanco would be lucky to hit 3 homers this year. Kotsay would be extremely lucky to hit 15 homers. Frenchy heck you dont know if he will hit 15, 19 or 25 homers so you dont know about him. Escobar is not a homerun hitter and KJ is not either. So I ask you HOW are we a homerun hitting team? We have three guys that I said earlier that you can consider the homerun hitters on this team. The rest is more of single and double hitters. That is fine but we try for the 3 run homer WAYYYYY too much.
May 13th, 2008 at 5:30 am
As you guys know, I rarely produce facts to support my opinions, I am too lazy I guess. So, I was nodding my head at what braves4life and braves#1, perhaps simply because of the style of the way you expressed your opinions. not alot of emotions and ego, IMO.
Then Alex comes along with facts. (I shouldn’t tell you I was a jr high math teacher once long ago. ) and I have used a little baseball to teach math. So, maybe it seems from all my collective memory and experice that
1) TP and before him Dusty, and before him ? have always taught an agressive approach. So Andruw was the product of that system. However, I usuppose I wish TP and Chipper would team up and teach hitting together.
The ESPN analyst, can’t think of his name right now, proved in the 90’s that the Braves were really a blindly impatient hacking ball club, and if you had a pitcher who threw junk the Braves average pitch count was one of the lowest (now probably Alex will come in with some research that either disputes my memory or confirms it???)
AND that the yankees worked the count, worked the count against the Braves pitchers, worked the count against everyone, THAT the Yankees of those years were one of the IDEAL teaching examples, (along with the A’s I think???) who waited out the pitchers. Wasn’t that part of MONEYball, was looking for those kind of hitters, they may not hit the homer but they stayed up at the plate a long time and took walks, etc. Is that correct??????????
However didn’t a lot of those guys turn out to be busts? Still, the philosophy is OK. just you can7t find the perfect players all the time to fit that philosophy.
I tell you when I lived in Calif during the very early 90’s it used to irritate the hell out of me that the Braves were a 3.1 pitch club up and down the roster. and coincidentally I was an A’s fan then but not for that reason.
Someone please tell me who on the team has the highest average pitch count?
Well, I think I still agree with braves4life in his first count. With one exception, I will always be opposed to trading ANY of our minor league players until they have been up at the bigs for at least 3 years.
Thank you if you read all of this.
May 13th, 2008 at 5:35 am
Oh yeah regarding our pitching. I am thinking that getting a decent BP is like playing the lottery, unless you have more than the Braves are budgeting for the BP. This year though they have spent some change, and if the injuries…….(well we have heard that song before…)
Naw, I am getting used to a .500 club for the time being. Cheers!
May 13th, 2008 at 5:56 am
Why are the Braves 19-18, it’s the question that begs an answer.
Could it have something to do with the fact that the Braves are 7-9 against southpaws.
While posting a record of 12-9 when facing right handers.
Maybe a little history lesson is in order. Last season’s splits:
right handers 56-36 left handers 32-38, in fact, the Braves have not had a winning record against left handed pitching since 2005. In fact, the Braves are 57-70 facing south paws since the beginning of the 2006 season.
Which coincidently was the last season Rafael Furcal was the Braves lead off hitter.
The lack of speed and production from the lead off man has contributed directly to the Braves struggles against left handed pitching. The near total disappearance of any running attack has turned the Braves into a team directly dependent on the extra base hit and long ball.
Because the Braves have not been able to offset the dominance of left handers with a true running attack, they have struggled to an overall record of 182-179 the last three seasons.
May 13th, 2008 at 9:09 am
Edo, I can’t find pitches per plate appearancue by team, but by player it’s here.
Yunel Escobar and Mark Teixeira are 53rd and 54th in the league, respectively, with 3.81 and 3.80 P/PA. Kelly’s at 3.71, Frenchy’s at 3.48, Brian’s at 3.47, and — I’m not making this up — Chipper’s at 3.33. I guess when the ball looks as big as a grapefruit, you don’t need to watch a lot of pitches.
Braves#1, one reason we can’t get people in is that we’re giving up outs. When you have one of your best hitters giving up an out to bunt guys over, that saps your ability to score, because it gives you fewer chances in the inning.
Also, Kelly Johnson is an above-average home run hitter for his position, with 20-home run power. Chipper Jones, Mark Teixeira, and Brian McCann all have 30-home run power. Yunel is a terrific doubles hitter who may develop increased home run power, but for now he’s got 10-15 homer power, as does Kotsay. The left field Diaz/Blanco platoon’s probably good for about 10. This isn’t a punch-and-judy team.
Of course, if you believe otherwise, I’m willing to be convinced — but you’re going to have to bring evidence.
May 13th, 2008 at 11:01 am
- Overall, this is really is NOT a home run hitting team. Alex, I think your assessment is correct, but (3) 30hr guys, and a couple low-20’s homer guys, does NOT constitute a power hitting club.
- we definitely, (like alot of clubs) are lacking a true leadoff guy. We had one in Furcal. (not to say that I don’t agree with letting him go to the Dodgers, cuz he’s not what he used to be). I thought Yunel might turn into a little better than avg leadoff, but he just doesn’t have enough speed. too big.
- we also definitely need a #2 or #3 pitcher. the bullpen will be fine when the ambulance backs up to the bp and lets out Gonzalez, Soriano, & Smoltzy
- People just don’t get it! bunting is more of a detriment, than an advantage, to scoring, especially a detriment to scoring more than 1, or the big inning. You’re giving the other team an out! you only get three per inning and your giving one away for 1 base! CRAZY!! Yes, there are a few occasions that its useful. late in a 1 run game, with a weak hitter @ the plate, etc. etc. Otherwise, don’t do it!! Outs are FAR too valuable to give them away. If you do the mathematics of the probability of scoring on bunts(and giving up an out), vs. scoring more runs on base hits, it bears me out. Its simple sabermetrics, my friends.
May 13th, 2008 at 11:55 am
JXN, I think we’re going to have to agree to disagree. In my opinion, getting double-digit homers from every spot on the diamond, and over 20 from 5 of 8, makes us a more than adequate homer-hitting team. In addition, we’re 4th in the league in slugging, 7 points ahead of Philadelphia and 42 points ahead of the Mets. We do not lack for power in any way, shape or form.
Why do you feel that a speedy leadoff hitter is the answer to our woes?
May 13th, 2008 at 12:15 pm
I think the Braves are a home run hitting team but the problem is that’s all they are. When they don’t hit homers, they have trouble scoring. I think the confusion lies in the difference between hitting home runs and trying to hit home runs. Generally, I think the Braves too often try for home runs in key spots when they really should be trying to simply drive the ball. I don’t know if that’s what you mean by small ball or not. It’s having better at bats, working the count, looking for pitches you can drive rather than swinging at the pitcher’s pitch or the first pitch you see. This is what the Red Sox and Yankees do; I wouldn’t call that “small ball” but it means have good, smart at bats. The Braves often are sorely lacking at that and, as a result, they give away a lot of at bats. The issue of bunting, stealing, etc., is sort of separate. When the White Sox won the Series in 2005, everyone talked about all the “small ball” they played, but they actually hit a lot of home runs.
I think speed is a nice commodity (and I think somewhat underrated in sabermetric analysis)in that it allows guys to score from first or second more easily and it can disrupt the pitcher, but it’s not the answer to our woes. The Braves weren’t a demonstrably better offensive team when Furcal was here. You can’t steal first base. If you look at the Red Sox and Yankees, they don’t have speed demons leading off.
May 13th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
The most important stat or number in baseball is 3. That is the number of outs you get in each inning to score runs. The Sac Bunt and high risk plays like a hit and run or stolen base are typically not smart. You’re voluntarily taking away one of your outs without directly scoring a run. That typically isn’t good baseball.
I love when two people argue baseball; person one uses what he’s seen/what he knows/how he feels to back up his argument and person two uses stats. Person one comes back and says “I don’t care what the stats say”. There are too many plays in a season of baseball or a career to keep track of them in your mind or how you feel.
I don’t get the hatred towards the stats or sabrmetrics people. Baseball is all about stats and has been for generations. It just turns out before Bill James most people were just using the wrong stats.
May 13th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
Coach,
I’m glad to see that you have found this site. I haven’t seen you post here before, but I have had discussions with you on mlbfleecefactor.com (I post simply as “a Braves Fan” there).
I think the problem isn’t the leadoff spot in terms of speed, but OBP. Kelly Johnson simply isn’t cutting it there, as much as it pains me to say. In 2007 KJ drew a ton of walks, which was why he was able to stay in as the leadoff guy even when he wasn’t hitting well. This year he isn’t really hitting well, and he isn’t drawing walks. Interestingly enough, he is hitting lefties at a .286 clip, but he is only putting up a .311 OBP and .333 slugging. His OPS is better against righties, but his AVG is only a .239 so he really isn’t hitting them any better.
Also, why the Braves offense goes completely cold on the road completely eludes me. I blame the new road uniforms.
May 13th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
Andrew -
For a leadoff hitter I only care about OBP. They could hit .150 if they got on base 38% of the time or so. The problem is Kelly isn’t even doing that. He comes off as a high walk guy but this year it is just eluding him. Maybe he’s injured or who knows. You’re right though, Kelly is hurting the offense a lot. And I’m a big Johnson fan, maybe he’ll turn it around.
May 13th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
We have a true leadoff hitter on the team, and his name is Gregor Blanco. He takes pitches, hits for average, likes to walk and is faster than a fat girl on her way to the Twinkie store. With him on base, pitchers get distracted and infielders have to alter their positioning because he’s a constant stolen base threat. Once he gets more experience with timing pitchers, he’ll be a legitimate threat to steal third regularly. That can be huge for an offense because the runner can advance without the expenditure of an out.
Putting Blanco in the leadoff spot also allows Cox to move Kelly Johnson to somewhere in the order where he fits more naturally and might hit better. Kelly is a team player, and we should all appreciate the way in which he’s trying to fit the leadoff role, but it’s not a good fit for him — although Kelly does take lots of pitches, he doesn’t hit for a high enough average, has too much power, likes to pull the ball too much, and lacks the speed to hit first. Ideally, he’d hit sixth or maybe seventh.
The only problem with putting Blanco first is that he doesn’t play everyday, so if he led off, the lineup would have to change dramatically depending on whether the opposing starter was a LHP or RHP. The remedy for that might be a three-way platoon, once Kotsay’s hot streak ends — vs. LHPs, we’d have Diaz in left and Blanco in center, and vs. RHPs, we’d have Blanco and Kotsay. The downside would be that Blanco had to adjust to playing different spots in the field on different days, but I suspect he could make the adjustment. The improvement to our lineup would probably offset the difficulties in the field.
Alternatively, maybe Blanco should become our everyday left fielder and Diaz should ride the bench. I’ve always liked Diaz and was initially excited when he started the season as our everyday left fielder, but there are three reasons why putting him on the bench might be a good idea: (1) our lineup already has moderately powerful hitters with slightly-above-average speed (Francouer, Johnson), so we don’t need another, but the lineup does desperately need a true leadoff hitter, (2) it would give us a powerful pinch hitter for late in ballgames, (3) it would be a major defense upgrade. The downside is that, given the Braves’ struggles against LHP, replacing a right-handed batter with a lefty at this point seems questionable. I’d like to know what Blanco’s splits are.
My money says that Blanco plays center and hits leadoff in 2009. What happens in 2008 is the question.
May 13th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
As I posted earlier, Kelly is still seeing a fair number of pitches. And his overall numbers are dragged down by a poor first month of the season in which he hit .241/.323/.402.
Overall he’s hitting .261/.328/.429, with an EqA of .268, which is fine for a second sacker, but not great for a leadoff man. Looking at his splits shows some interesting information, though. Against lefties, he’s at .279/.304/.326, which is terrible, but he is a left-handed batter and he historically hits lefties much worse than righties. Against righties he’s at .250/.341/.487, which is more like it, though the BA (and consequently OBP) are still lower than you’d like at leadoff.
The starkest split, however, is home/away. At Turner Field he’s hitting .308/.362/.538; away, he’s hitting .224/.303/.343. In this, he mirrors the whole team’s road ineptitude; the team as a whole is batting .316/.385/.477 at home, and .252/.320/.398 on the road.
His batting average and power are way up this month but his walk rate is way down. Of course, he’s a screwy hitter, deeply streaky. Long-term, that could make it a bad idea to bat him leadoff, and I probably wouldn’t mind hitting Yunel first with Kelly second.
However, I’m not convinced that Kelly is hurting the team any more than our cleanup hitter is. Tex is hitting .261/.354/.435 with an EqA of .275. Kelly actually has more Win Shares, 3 to 2. If you’re looking for someone to blame, I’d say, look at the Boras client.
May 13th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
Also, Jeb, there is no such thing as having too much power for leadoff. Remember Rickey Henderson?
Otherwise, I agree with you on giving Blanco a try in the leadoff spot to see how it suits him. I’ve loved what I’ve seen of him so far — he’s done nothing but get on base and make the most of an opportunity many of us didn’t think he’d ever get. Fun player to root for, fundamentally sound, and does things the right way. If he played in Boston, there would be women naming their babies Gregor.
May 13th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
Alex, Well I really cant produce facts. But we are also top 10 in Batting average also but yet our offense is the REAL reason why we are barely above .500. (yes the bullpen is a reason also, but the offense has been so inconsistent). At the end of the year we will probably be top 5 in batting average and stuff like that but yet WE know that our offense is so inconsistent and we score the runs in BUNCHES and cant win a ONE run game to save our lives.
Same goes for the homerun hitters. Heck I even admitted that we have three of them on our team in Chipper, Tex, and McCann. KJ MAY have 20 homer power but I doubt he hits that many this year, Escobar has 10-15 homer power and may hit 15 I dont know yet but thats not alot for a SS, not awful but not alot either. Less than 20 homers from each spot of your outfield is HORRENDOUS!!! Your LF is suppose to be the big bopper, your RF suppose to have big bop also and we will truly be lucky if Kotsay hits 15 homers this year.
Listen dude im not sayin we dont have a good offense im just sayin we are NOT a homerun hitting team and we are not. And im deffinately not sayin replace these guys for more power hitters because I am fine with the offense. Im just trying to explain in common sense theory instead of facts. Because the facts about the homeruns are misleading THIS early in the year. At the END of the year we will be ranked 15th or worst in homers in MLB. But if I am proved wrong that will be fine with me. But since I did NOT produce facts for you Alex we will obviously have to agree to disagree and you will find out as the season goes on how much lack of power we truly have.
May 13th, 2008 at 2:38 pm
“Less than 20 homers from each spot of your outfield is HORRENDOUS!!!” When I said that I meant that at least if one does of those positions does not reach 20 homers it is horrendous and if all 3 positions are all under 20 homers each its horrendous. Just trying to clarify that dont wont somebody to think something else.
May 13th, 2008 at 2:53 pm
i DO think it comes down to speed. how many of our guys can score from second on a sharp single to the outfield? we have 1 person on our roster who can. that will murder a team’s chance to produce the much needed 1 run we have lacked in the past. the braves have to be the slowest team in baseball. when matt diaz is your second speediest player, something is f’ed.
braves#1, you cant determine put a “15th in MLB” label on the braves and say that’s below average. remember, the AL has the DH, which puts up apprx. 30 more hr’s per year than the NL’s pitcher. if we finish in the top 4-6 in the NL (which could easily happen), then we are a home run hitting team. right now, we are 7th in the National League and that’s without the production we were expecting from 2 of our players (francoeur and tex).
May 13th, 2008 at 3:23 pm
the word “determine” shouldn’t be there because it makes my other words not make sense.
May 13th, 2008 at 3:35 pm
The offense is very much not the reason the Braves are near a .500 team. The Braves offense is very good. Just saying it is how you feel or how you see doesn’t make the offense not good.
Now I will grant you the offense needs improvement versus the soft tossing lefty. That is where the perceived inconsistency comes from, their inability to hit lefties.
May 13th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
Speed is far and away the most overrated attribute when it comes to offense in baseball.
May 13th, 2008 at 3:53 pm
That being said I’d take Hanley Ramirez and his 60 steals anytime he wants to play in ATL. Him or Jose Reyes or even Chone Figgins, those guys are good players. Juan Pierre can stay in LA, Corey Patterson can stay with Dusty “I let players bat out of order” Baker, and Michael Bourne can stay in Houston.
May 13th, 2008 at 4:19 pm
speed is overrated unless you dont have it. can you explain why the braves have had an above average offense, an above average pitching staff, and are barely staying above .500? no speed means no small ball which means no producing runs which means if we arent hitting hr’s, we lose, but only lose by 1 because our pitching has been great and keeps us in most games.
Just a few team stats:
Braves NL rankings
#3 in Obp
#4 in SLG
#1 in Avg
#1 in ERA
#7 in errors
#12 in steals. only offensive stat that we werent in the top 50%
Feast or famine is our offense and that is because we have to rely on the homerun rather than actually producing a run. have you noticed how terrible we are at bunting? because we dont do it. have you noticed how we never have a single, stolen base, sacrifice bunt, sacrifice fly? it’s because of the lack of speed. i’m not saying that we should have 5-6 players on our team who can steal a base, but a little bit of well played small ball would be nice from time to time to score that one run we’ve been lacking for 8-10 games this year.
May 13th, 2008 at 4:23 pm
I’d take Hanley every day of the week and twice on Sunday, but it’s not just because he’s stolen 115 bases in his career and only been caught 33 times. It’s because he’s a career .314/.374/.525 hitter, with 25 Win Shares in 2006 and 29 in 2007. (By comparison, Chipper Jones had 21 Win Shares in 2006 and 26 in 2007.) It’s because he’s had at least 46 doubles in each of his two full seasons. He’s easily one of the ten best, and quite possibly one of the five best, offensive players in all of baseball.
He ain’t good because he’s fast. He’s just very very fast, and very very good.
May 13th, 2008 at 4:27 pm
Ryan, can you make a statistical argument for why a team with the characteristics of the Braves — a high-slugging team — would be improved by having its hitters bunt for outs?
May 13th, 2008 at 4:30 pm
I think in 2 years, Hanley will be the best player in baseball.
May 13th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
See Ryan you can’t argue against stats by using stats, that just doesn’t make sense. The defense is below average and the bullpen is very much below average. That’s why the Braves are about a .500 team. That and every starter outside of Jair and Hudson has been on the DL. Hudson was pulled out of two starts after 3IP so that is almost the DL. The top 3 relievers also on the DL.
The offense is really good. The bad pen, hurt starting pitching, and barely average if not below average defense is why the Braves are 3.5 games out of first.
May 13th, 2008 at 5:14 pm
That was kinda my point Alex, that Chone, Reyes, and definitely Hanley have way more than just speed. Speed in baseball is overrated and always has been. Rickey Henderson isn’t the best leadoff hitter in history because he stole 100+ bases in a year. Rickey’s the best leadoff hitter because he got on base 40% of the time. Vince Coleman stole a ton of bases but he wasn’t a great leadoff hitter. A .330 or so OBP most years just isn’t good for a leadoff man. Tony Womack, Juan Pierre, Brian Hunter, and Quilvio Veras are recent examples of players who stole a bunch of bases that weren’t very good players.
May 13th, 2008 at 5:15 pm
the bullpen and starting staff have not been below average. in fact, they have been above average, not even just plain ol’ average.
alex, no i cannot, however i have only seen us produce 1-2 runs this entire year where we only used a single to produce that run, and its just pure common sense that speed could help in the production of a run when the offense is struggling during that particular day.
May 13th, 2008 at 5:43 pm
The Marlins with the best record in baseball have scored 2 or fewer runs 10 times. The Red Sox with the best record in the AL have scored 2 or fewer runs 9 times. The DBacks generally regarded as the best team in the NL have scored 2 or fewer runs 5 times which I’ll grant you is pretty darn good. The Cubs who lead the league in runs have scored 2 or fewer runs 7 times. The Braves and their horribly inconsistent offense have scored 2 or fewer runs 9 times. The same as the defending champs and the team with the best record.
You know what the Braves also are, 1-12 in one-run games. Far and away the worst record in the bigs. That is usually the fault of the bullpen.
May 13th, 2008 at 5:50 pm
My point is that arguing vs. stats by saying “I’ve seen” or “I remember” is just a losing argument. Crash Davis points out that difference between a .250 and a .300 hitter is one hit a week, just one hit a week.
To hit .300 in 550 ABs you need to get 165 hits. To hit .250 in 550 ABs you need to 138 hits or a difference on 27 hits. That’s one extra hit every six games. The human mind can’t keep track of that, a fan can’t tell a .300 hitter from a .250 hitter. But we don’t have to, we have stats.
May 13th, 2008 at 5:57 pm
Hey marc this Braves team is not a home-run hitting team at all,a home-run hitting team has always been those yankees,this Braves team has always been about pitching and defense,and their one and only problem has always been their bullpen.I mean this bullpen has to show improvement.The yankees have always been just a home-run hitting team,they can’t pitch at all,the Braves have always been about pitching and defense.
May 13th, 2008 at 6:05 pm
The Braves have never even tried to hit balls out of the ballpark,but this Braves team has been totally impatient at the plate quite often,they just have less patience at the plate swinging at just about every pitch,while quite a few other teams show much more patience when they are batting than the Braves when they are batting.
May 13th, 2008 at 6:09 pm
Really people, the internet isn’t that hard to use. The Braves have hit 37 HR and the Yankees have hit 39 HR. Given the Yankees have 9 hitters and the Braves have 8 and a pitcher then I’d say their even. The Braves have the #3 OBP in the NL, I’d say that’s pretty patient.
May 13th, 2008 at 6:09 pm
Still above 500.at 19-18 and we need to stay that way until we get into October,because you have to be over 500.in order to be in October,as for the Braves keep your head above water until October and you will be in great status.
May 13th, 2008 at 6:13 pm
The next paragraph which I hit post before I wrote…
It doesn’t matter what one teams does one year compared to the next. The Yankees when they were the best team probably every in a four year period hit plenty of HR but their offense was great because of their patience. You know what else the Yankees really good those years, pitching. Their ERA during their three in row, losing the Schilling/Johnson run was ranked 1, 3, 6, and 3 in the league. The year they were 6th was also the year they dipped down to less than 90 wins. I’d say that is a little about pitching.
May 13th, 2008 at 6:29 pm
Why are the yankees even mentioned on this board,when Braves fans have always been totally loyal Braves fans,we don’t even know who those yankees are because we have always been Braves fans so let’s talk about the damn good old Bravos,instead of some other team.
May 13th, 2008 at 6:33 pm
Well Dipen Patel or BravesNation4Ever, its the same user but a different handle. You’re the one who mentioned the Yankees first. The Yankees are the most prestigious professional sports team in the history of professional sports much less baseball. Mentioning them on any baseball forum probably isn’t a bad thing.
May 13th, 2008 at 6:45 pm
i didnt use “i’ve seen” in my initial post tmac. and you cant argue against stats by just overlooking them. the bullpen has not been bad.
May 13th, 2008 at 6:52 pm
Mentioning the yankees has always been a horrible thing thing,especially on this board so drop those yankees,and start discussing the Braves,because the Braves have always been truly the most dignified and the most classiest team in sports,forget major league baseball.The Braves have never even had bad blood against any team at all like how those yankees have always had with those Boston RedSox,and the Braves have never made negative remarks at all regarding other teams like those yankees always have regarding those Boston RedSox and just about every other team in baseball.
May 13th, 2008 at 6:54 pm
ryan the bullpen has been bad,we are the ones who are just 1-10 in games decided by 1-run.
May 13th, 2008 at 7:14 pm
bullpen in the one run losses: 4.40 era in 44.2 innings. not great, but most definitely not terrible. that’s also including a jeff bennett relief appearance after tommy exited without getting an out.
May 13th, 2008 at 7:14 pm
The Braves have never even been swept by a NL team in a season series and this dates all the way back to the late 1800’s.I remember they were close to being swept by those San Diego Padres in 2005,I remember watching that game on ESPN and the Braves were trailing in that game beyond the 6th inning and won by a run.The were 0-5 against San Diego until the Braves rallied off the season series finale,back then
May 13th, 2008 at 7:19 pm
You’re right the bullpen is as bad this season as it was in 06 and 07,and when this bullpen shows improvement it will all be because of Will Ohman and Royce Ring,and I don’t know why Bobby always avoids those 2 pitchers,by calling up someone like Jeff Bennett to close out our 9th inning leads.
May 13th, 2008 at 7:25 pm
?
May 13th, 2008 at 7:48 pm
Well I’ve read all the comments. Thanks Alex, Tmac, coach. I think there are several factors involved here, and probably over performing compared to the league average in one of the factors discussed would compensate for other weaknesses. There is a team of factors which combine to produce a .500 average.
What I see most obviously is
our performance against left handed pitchers
and
the performance of our BP as evidenced with our won/loss in 1 run games
finally
leadoff spot production
these three factors seem most descriptive of the character of our team. I don’t see luck or coincidence being much of a factor. these factors can be measured and stand above the sway of memory or feelings or philosophy.
These 2 factors most impress me
May 13th, 2008 at 7:49 pm
I don’t need to talk about the Yankees but you’re the one who brought them up.
May 13th, 2008 at 8:18 pm
Ahh. thank goodness for not another 1 run loss.
May 13th, 2008 at 9:17 pm
Make that 1-11 in games decided by 1 run,back to 500. we are at 19-19,I wonder where we will be after 162 games.06 record 79-83,07 record 84-78,08 let’s hope we can start catching on fire at the right time before October.Let’s roll BravesNation.
May 13th, 2008 at 9:35 pm
I guess Bobby listened to my advice from the other day about putting Escobar leadoff and Kotsay second. Im here all week folks. hahahahaa.
May 13th, 2008 at 11:51 pm
This was a weird game for me. I actually thought that this was the best game Reyes has ever pitched in a Braves uniform. His fastball was clocked at 96 a couple of times plus he threw strikes. He just ran into some bad luck, and the umpire made some horrible calls. The bad defense behind made him throw extra pitches and flustered him a bit. The only problem I had was not throwing his changeup that much and he hung some breaking pitches to Jayson Werth a couple of times.
I have nothing to say about the Braves offense. But I think the change was needed and we should get much needed boost when we get the Big 3 Back (Gonzo, Smoltz, and Soriano).
Tommy Hanson had a good start in AA, but he walked 4 batters and he had 8 fly out to 3 ground outs. I wonder does he throw a great deal of high fastballs to try to get strikes with it.
And the movie JUNO was the second worst movie I have ever watched. I think Alex said it was a good movie. Watching 15 minutes of that movie was one of the biggest mistakes of my life.
(Vote for Obama in 08)
The End!!!
Lets Go Braves!!!
May 14th, 2008 at 1:19 am
That wasn’t such a terrible game. we scored 4 runs. If we can’t win a game without scoring 6 runs, we’re in trouble.
Look at the top of our order. They produced.
Look at Blanco. He got on base.
Look at Chipper. He produced.
Reyes 105 pitches, 74 strikes. If he does that every time. He’s going to be good!
Campillo
Acosto
BOth of these guys threw strikes. They held their own.
What is there not to be encouraged about, except the score.
Let’s be happy
May 14th, 2008 at 8:59 am
I just read up on something that this offense will have to be totally prolific,in order for this Braves team to get into October, I also read that John Smoltz in the bullpen will hurt the Braves, unless the offense starts scoring runs the rest of season.You can bet GM Frank is undoubtebly looking for pitching from other teams,but it is an uphill challenge, because every team is looking for help in the starting rotation,the Braves are not the only team.The Braves are a starter short,they will need one more starter to be serious October contenders.
May 14th, 2008 at 9:01 am
“Im just trying to explain in common sense theory instead of facts.”
That has got to be one of the most ridiculous statements in the history of mankind. It’s pretty bizaare that you continually criticize Alex for attempting to be rational.
If you look at the offensive numbers for the Braves on the road, it’s pretty obvious that the offense is the problem. The bullpen has had its problems but if the offense had been decent on the road, they would have at least 7 or 8 more wins.
May 14th, 2008 at 10:49 am
Man, do any of you guys have jobs, wives, kids, etc?? I can only come on once a day. Sometimes, not even that. There’s like a hundred posts since yesterday.
- Tmac, Tmac, Tmac… Although you are not completely wrong with your analyses(plural), and while I do agree with almost all of your comments, I do take exception to one - Speed is most definitely NOT overrated!
On top of why Ricky Henderson stole all those bases, why do think his OBP was so high? HIS SPEED!!!
To use your own words, “To hit .300 in 550 ABs you need to get 165 hits. To hit .250 in 550 ABs you need to 138 hits or a difference on 27 hits. That’s one extra hit every six games.”. Well, don’t you think his speed got him AT LEAST one hit a week? Speed can, not always, but CAN give you an extra run or two per game - not only in beating out throws @ first and stealing bases, but taking extra bases on hits and outs, tagging up, etc, etc… and that makes THE difference in 1 run games.
- Alex, you said “adequate” home run hittin team. I guess I would agree with that, but in the discussion we were having, we were kind of labeling the Braves a home run hitting team, and I would NOT agree with that. Getting the production I/we referenced, does not make a home run hitting team. But, yes, I DO agree that IF we had a leadoff guy, and IF we had another #1,2,or 3 starter, and IF our bullpen was healthy, and IF KJ was batting like last year, then I’d be happy with “adequate” home runs, cuz we’d be winning alot more games, especially one run games…
..but IF….the queen had balls, she’d be the king!
- Hanley is top 5
May 14th, 2008 at 11:11 am
Hey Will, Alex, and Kristi, you may want to make a post about Mark Bowman’s assertion that our Bravos might bring The Professor back for another tour. A reunion of Smoltz, Glavine, and Maddux…what an amazing publicity stunt that would be…and even may be effective.
May 14th, 2008 at 11:35 am
Rickey Henderson’s speed may have helped his OBP a bit, but mostly it was his otherworldy batting eye. He’s second all-time in career walks.
May 14th, 2008 at 11:57 am
Marc, dude say what you want I dont care. Lookin at those stats right now is stupid. Its too early in the year to be lookin at team stats like that offensively. Because there are soooo many players that get off to slow starts in the bigs. When July comes then give me the offensive team stats. All I know is at the end of the year we will be ranked Top 10 in offense batting average and stuff like that. And we will be ranked 15-20th in homeruns by seasons end. Can I guarantee that? Heck no. But this is just my opinion and I have the right to my opinion. The starting pitching has been great for us this season, the bullpen not all that good but decent. But the offense is so inconsistent is the reason why we have the record that we have.
May 14th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
Braves#1, you have a right to your opinion. But your opinion is much more likely to be taken seriously if you can back it up with evidence for why you feel the way you do.
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