Explaining Mediocrity: How Can the League Leader in AVG and ERA Be a .500 Team?
The Braves have had a pretty frustrating season, needless to say. We’re leading the league in Batting Average and ERA, but we can’t figure out how to win more games than we’ve lost. How is that possible? I’ve complained about Bobby’s bullpen management and commented on how I wish we bunted less, but that’s a bit unsatisfying. Here are a few problems.
We’re slow. Yes, I know I keep saying speed is overrated, but you guys are right — it’s important when a guy can’t score from second on a single, or when you can’t get down the line fast enough to prevent a twin killing. We’re 3rd in the league in double plays, just about the worst offensive occurence there is. We’re 12th in the league in stolen bases, but we’re tied for 4th in the league in stolen base percentage, which means we’re making the most of opportunities when they present themselves. Brian McCann is possibly the slowest player in the league, Mark Teixeira has below-average speed, and Chipper’s perpetually-injured legs don’t have a lot of sprint left in them either. And our lack of speed feeds Bobby’s worst instincts to take men out for pinch runners in late innings, which hamstrings us whether we tie the game or don’t.
We are burning out our bullpen. I’ve said this before, but it’s no less true. We’re leading the major leagues in appearances by our relievers, 133 bullpen calls in 38 games this season. We’ve used an average of 4.5 pitchers per game, which is the second highest in baseball, just a tick below the Mets. When the pen has pitched, the results have been mostly positive, as we have a 3.74 bullpen ERA, which isn’t shabby, but considering that we have our best 4 relievers on the DL — Soriano, Moylan, Gonzalez, and Smoltz — we’d better find a way for our starters to start going 7 innings a game every game, or else we’ll start putting James Andrews’ great-grandkids through college.
Our situational strategy is screwed up. Bobby Cox has made a lot of questionable in-game decisions this year, both with the bullpen and with the bench. We have almost twice as many sacrifice bunts as sacrifice flies — 16 sac bunts and 9 sac flies. This helps highlight a fundamental misunderstanding of the term “productive out.” I do think that sac bunts can be appropriate when a pitcher’s at bat, and there our pitchers have been less than productive. Jo-Jo Reyes blew two sac bunt opportunities last night, and our pitchers have only collected 9 sac bunts on the season. Kelly and Yunel have 5 of the rest, which is stupid, because they’re top-of-the-lineup hitters, placed at the top of the lineup specifically because they’re supposed to be able to get on base without making out.
We’re hitting a lot better with 2 outs than with no one out — .794 OPS versus .725 — and the plurality of our runs have come with 2 outs. Mac Thomason has suggested one reason for this wide disparity is that, with no outs, the team is frequently looking to give away an out on a bunt, whereas with 2 outs the team swings away and is consequently much more productive. I don’t put a lot of stock in RISP stats, but ours aren’t good, as we’re batting only .250/.340/.375 with runners in scoring position. It’s certainly possible to see the team pressing in a high-pressure situation, which is borne out by our stats in close-and-late situations: .240/.324/.330, more than a hundred points below our overall OPS.
Ultimately, “situational strategy” is a bit like “productive out”: mostly an oxymoron. If we could hit our normal OPS with runners on base — when the pitcher should be nervous himself, trying to avoid the walk while also trying to avoid throwing a meatball — we’d be just fine. All this bunting, double-switching, and LOOGY burnout obscures the fact that we’ve got a really good team, with a good offense and a good pitching staff. We don’t need to play for one run, play for individual matchups, because every time you play the odds with a switch you have a good chance of coming up short, and you also lose the ability to use that player later in the game. Bobby outthinks himself, and he’s done it a lot this year, to the team’s detriment.
Of course, our Pythagorean W-L is 23-15, so in an alternate universe somewhere we’re leading the division, instead of mired in 4th. While I don’t quite know why the Braves have done so poorly, I have an inkling of why Pythagoras hates us: we’re bean-eaters.
This entry was posted
on Wednesday, May 14th, 2008 at 12:53 pm and is filed under Uncategorized.
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
THE AUTHOR
RECENT ARTICLES BY DIVISION RIVALS
ARCHIVE
RECENT ARTICLES BY DIVISION RIVALS
SPONSORS
Online Seats
Atlanta Braves Tickets Atlanta Thrashers Tickets
Ticket Specialists
Braves Tickets Atlanta Hawks Tickets
Coast to Coast Tickets
Atlanta Braves Tickets Atlanta Hawks Tickets Atlanta Falcons Tickets Atlanta Event Tickets Theater Tickets Online
Tickets4U
Atlanta Braves Tickets World Series Tickets Atlanta Falcons Tickets
Great Seats
Atlanta Braves Tickets Atlanta Falcons Ticket Atlanta Hawks Tickets Chastain Park Tickets Atlanta Event Tickets
54 Responses to “Explaining Mediocrity: How Can the League Leader in AVG and ERA Be a .500 Team?”
May 14th, 2008 at 2:17 pm
alex,
i didnt want you to think i was suggesting our “hitters” to actually lay down a bunt, but here is my scenario that i would not mind seeing from our team every once in a blue moon.
1. blanco, in the 8 hole, walks/singles to lead off an inning.
2. blanco steals 2nd
3. pitcher bunts
4. kj hits sacrifice fly to score blanco.
i really cant recall how many times #1 has happened, but i really cant recall a single time where we have stolen a base, got bunted to 3rd, and then sacrificed home. this happening every 2-3 games wouldnt be the worst way to get a stagnant offense out of a jam. that’s where i think speed would give us a boost and where small ball is needed in a team with good slugging.
May 14th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
What about the thought of batting the pitcher 8th and saving Blanco for the 9 spot. That has worked with a few teams.
May 14th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
1-11 in one run games plus winning a lot of blow outs will screw up the pythagorean record. I personally don’t think the team has much control over one run record, so I’d say they’re just unlucky.
May 14th, 2008 at 2:47 pm
The offense has all the control of a one run game. Get the run in to tie it up then take the lead thats how you win one run games. haha. But yeah I know its not as easy as it sounds only if it was. haha.
May 14th, 2008 at 3:31 pm
To reply to your title only. Batting Average is even more overrated then speed, that’s why. I think this team is just unlucky right now in a few games and has made questionable calls in others. Mix that with injury issues and some weird inability to hit lefties and you’re lucky to be a .500 team. If they keep leading the league in ERA and near the top in OBP and Slugging then they’ll start winning more games than they’re losing. Keep the faith.
May 14th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
braves#1, there are two kinds of 1-run games — games you win and games you lose. For the games you win, it’s up to the bullpen to hold the lead; if the offense scores any go-ahead runs, it’s not a 1-run game any longer. For the games you lose, it’s up to the offense to try to tie it up or get the lead; but if the bullpen gives up any runs, it’s not a 1-run game any longer.
May 14th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
i’d say we should stick Blanco in the leadoff spot, but lately all he seems to do is hit weak ground outs to the pitcher. and every once in a while he hits it so weakly that he beats it out.
May 14th, 2008 at 6:29 pm
I like the lineup like it is. I like Escobar leading off and Kotsay batting second and KJ batting seventh. I think KJ is more of a 5-7 hole hitter anyway. And Escobar is more of a number 1 or 2 hitter. Escobar brings so much leading off.
May 14th, 2008 at 7:14 pm
We have one of the most talented teams in all of the National League and in baseball. I really think we have a confidence issue when we hit the road. We might not play wll in this series versus the Phillies, but we will play great against the A’s or who ever else at home. I strongly believe that adding Smoltz,Gonzo, and Sori will give the Braves a much needed momentum boost. I have a hard time understanding that a team leading in ERA and AVG. will not win their division, let alone not make the playoffs.
May 14th, 2008 at 7:37 pm
First, I think Bobby is a great manager, but sometimes his moves are headscratchers.
Last night, (I forget what inning, top of the 6th I think) Braves had 1st and 2nd with one out and Reyes coming up. I thought it was a no-brainer to pinch hit for Reyes there. Bobby stuck with Reyes, and missed on a bunt and Johnson got picked off second anticipating that Reyes would make contact. IMO, that was a huge play in the game, and would probably have been avoided if they had put a real hitter up there.
May 14th, 2008 at 10:28 pm
John, I agree with you there. Reyes had already flubbed a bunt earlier in the game. Obviously, he needs to be able to get that down, but considering he’s a horrible bunter, Bobby made the wrong call.
May 14th, 2008 at 11:25 pm
You would think that since Reyes is a horrible bunter the coaches at AAA would have taught him how to bunt. Im sure when he was in A ball all the way to AAA they showed him how to bunt properly. Maybe they tried and he just absolutely cant bunt. But I think if you work at it hard enough you can at least be a respectable bunter. If this was the AL then who cares if could get the bunt down or not but this is the NL he HAS to be able to get that bunt down. Maybe Glavine can help him in the bunting category also.
May 14th, 2008 at 11:51 pm
Glavine and Smoltz can both help him learn how to bunt, and so can Hudson. It’s something they’ve taken a lot of pride in over the years.
Mostly, a pitcher pitches. He doesn’t have to field his position as frequently as the other players on the field, and we don’t really care if he hits. Considering how low are the expectations of a pitcher on hitting and defense, two things irk me: when a pitcher fields a comebacker to the mound and throws it away on an attempt to go to second, and when a pitcher fails to get down a bunt. Both of these things happen way too often.
May 15th, 2008 at 12:05 am
Thank God MLB has a long season, because it lets things like these work themselves out. Yeah, we’re 6-15 on the road, but we’re also 14-4 at home. Sure, we’re 1-11 in one-run games, but we’re 19-8 in all others. We’re only one game over .500 after 39 games played, but that’s only 2.5 GB in the East and it’s still just mid-May. We did lose Smoltz, Soriano, Moylan and other valuable arms along the way (some that haven’t come back yet), but we’ve discovered Campillo, been amazed by Jurrjens, rescued by Bennett and wowed by Boyer. Diaz failed as a full-time starter, but Blanco has stepped up to help him out in LF. Tex, Kelly and Francouer have all come out to slower than expected starts, but Chipper and McCann have been unreal AND Yunel and Kotsay have proven the doubters wrong.
That’s the thing about a .500 team, people: you have to remember that there are two sides to that coin. We’ve been through bad luck and a slew of injuries, both out of our control and ills that only time can cure. And believe me, my friends, we’ve got time and it will help us. Reinforcements are on the way and others will be had using the farm system (via trade or promotion). If you think this team is good now, wait till you see us in the summer months! It’s not time for gloom and doom, but rather patience and hope. Go Braves!
May 15th, 2008 at 12:26 am
Let me start by saying that I’m sorry if this post upsets anybody because I’m gonna rip Bobby Cox a brand new asshole.
The idea that Chuck James is the Braves fifth best starter is repugnant at best, in fact, it’s down right stupid.
Putting Chuck(HOMERUN)James on the mound this coming Thursday night in the Phillies bandbox home park against their lineup is a recipe made in H-E-L-L !
I’m anticipating fireworks and we are talking about baseballs flying over the fence. Chuck(homerun) James has given up at least one HR in 14 of his last 15 starts. In fact, his last two starts in Philadelphia have resulted in four HR’s in just over nine innings of work.
Why won’t the Braves call up Charlie Morton and what’s the justification for it, well here you go.
Whats the best team in the N.L.
Answer : The Diamondbacks.
Who is Max Scherzer,
Answer: the Diamondbacks first round pick from the 2006 draft. Why is he already in the big leagues, because they need him to help them WIN , NOW.
Scherzer has all of one full season of minor league experience. In fact, including his three collegiate seasons at Misouri, he has four years of pitching beyond high school consisting of 53 starts and 336 innings.
Why am I blathering on about him, you ask ???????
Because, by comparison, Charlie Morton(2002 3rd round pick)was pitching in the minors way back in 2002 when this kid was still in high school.
Morton has 86 starts, 564 innings, S-I-X , COUNT’EM OUT LOUD, S-I-X full minor league seasons and is currently playing number seven as we speak.
Morton is completely DOMINATING minor league hitters to the tune of 9 runs in 48 innings of work with 39 strike outs and 15 walks. His ERA is 1.69 in eight starts, he has pitched into the seventh inning during the last three starts and given up two runs in those twenty-one innings.
If the young 6-5 right hander isn’t ready for the big leagues, he never will be !
For Bobby Cox and Frank Wren to keep marching Chuck(HOMERUN)James and his ridiculous ERA of 7.58 out to the mound is A-S-S-I-N-I-N-E with pointed reference to the first three letters of that word because that is where Bobby Cox has his head right now.
If the Braves expect to win, then put the best pitchers on the mound. Otherwise, Cox is going to run this team right into the damn ground.
The Braves rank third in ERA at 3.61 in the ENTIRE MAJOR LEAGUES. Second in team BA at .284 and yet here we sit at 20-19. That my friends is the absolute definition of M-E-D-I-O-C-R-I-T-Y. And the blame for it falls squarely on the shoulders of Bobby Cox
May 15th, 2008 at 1:49 am
Coach, I do expect Morton to be up before the end of May or mid June. I dont blame EVERYTHING on Cox, no doubt thought that he has had a few mental lapses in the season. Yeah James in that park is a bad recipe. But James is actually not that bad of a pitcher when fully healthy. He is an above above average # 5 starter when healthy.
May 15th, 2008 at 4:24 am
Alex I agree with you.
Coach you have a strong opinion and you back it up with facts,
braves#1 you have the opposite opinion and you have produced no facts directly, but refer vaguely to something or other (just like me).
Alex, and Coach,
You got my attention.
regarding “luck” speaking as a former jr. high math teacher, I have to agree with Alex again, there isn’t such thing as luck. Good teams, good players, make their own luck period. Chipper’s BA for example is not based on luck.
EJ, this is precisely the reason I said in previous posts that I am OK with the Braves being a .500 team until they prove otherwise. look on the bright side, but make it the real side. I probably differ because even a .500 team is creating that .500. its not luck.
May 15th, 2008 at 8:53 am
Coach, if you want to complain about Bobby Cox, be my guest, and I’ll probably join you, but you just compared Charlie Morton to Max Scherzer. Let me be the first to tell you: Charlie Morton is nowhere near as good as Max Scherzer. The reason that Morton has been in the minors for had 6 minor league seasons is that he’s never been all that good until this year. This is his first good season ever.
Personally, I’d rather make sure that he’s going to stay good rather than throw him to the wolves after a good month and a half.
May 15th, 2008 at 9:15 am
Alex, I have to respectfully disagree when it comes to the talents of Charlie Morton. But, you are correct, Morton has not fully realized his ability until now. Frank Wren and Bobby Cox went to see him pitch in the Arizona fall league. Frank Wren had one thing to say when describing Morton, lights out stuff.
I realize that no one here has seen him pitch at the big league level yet. So I’ll just give you what I know.
Morton’s sinking fastball reaches between 95-98 . He has one of the most beautiful true curveball’s that you will ever see and I’m talking about one of those big 12 to 6 knee buckling lollipops.
His change up is outstanding along with a nasty slider.
Between his ability to throw all four pitches for strikes and his control, Morton’s stuff is all big league level.
Here is what Clint Sammons, the Richmond Braves catcher had to say about Charlie Morton.
‘Electric’ is the first word you can use for it,” Sammons said of Morton’s stuff. “He really started turning the corner last year(2007). You had to believe that this was going to happen eventually. He got his mechanics ironed out and started to command the ball.
“His confidence started to get a boost. He started realizing how good his stuff is. I try telling him as much as I can, because I think that’s an important part, for him to believe it.”
May 15th, 2008 at 9:49 am
Charlie Morton, from what I recall reading about him, did not have the control until he found it last season. That said, he probably does deserve a call up soon. Chuck James is a better than average fielder. Put him in Petco Park and he would be a 15 game winner.
The problem is his start tonight, in a field where he has been terrible against a team who have murdered him throughout his career. It isn’t his fault that Citizens Bank makes EVERY high fly ball a home run. The Braves offense needs to make sure they put the park to their advantage as well by doing what they did last night and use the Phillies park to their advantage. Chipper Jones is a 40 Home Run player if he played is career in Philadelphia. Put Ryan Howard in a different home field and he is only a 40 homer guy and not a 50 homer guy.
I know the Braves can hit Cole Hamels. They just have to go out there like gamers and do it.
Another thing, what is up with Jeff Francoeur? He needs to wake up and start producing. Last night he finally gets a guy willing to throw a fastball down the middle on the first pitch and it is the ONLY TIME that he doesn’t swing. Meanwhile, he swings at every obvious down and away moving pitch he sees.
May 15th, 2008 at 9:54 am
**Chuck James is a better than average pitcher is what I meant to say.
May 15th, 2008 at 10:17 am
I know ya’ll didn’t want to know this but here it is, sorry.
Chuck James in his last two starts at Philadelphia: 9.2 innings, 8 earned runs, 4 HR’s, 7.45 ERA
May 15th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
I hope we can take 2 of 3 from those Phillies tonight,give us a confidence booster on the road, and for a tough home stretch coming up shortly after this series.It’s a total uphill war at the Ted after this series,so let’s get nasty BravesNation.
May 15th, 2008 at 12:34 pm
Coach, I don’t disagree with Charlie Morton’s stuff. Everything I’ve heard, everything I’ve read, has said it’s tremendous, ace-type stuff. But he’s had that stuff for 7 years in the minors, and he’s only had success with it for a month at the end of the year last year and the first month of this season. In my opinion, we need to make sure the gains are legitimate and have time to take root rather than throwing him into the rotation, telling him we need him to turn our season around, and possibly killing his confidence.
That’s exactly what we did to Kyle Davies.
May 15th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
One point on the Morton/Scherzer comparison—Morton started with the Braves out of high school, whereas Scherzer had time in the college ranks before being drafter. Yes, Scherzer’s a better prospect, but don’t overemphasize the fact that Morton’s been in the minors for 7 years—he was a teenager when he began.
May 15th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
He was a teenager when he began, but some teens move through the ranks more rapidly than others. Morton has spent all that time in the minors because he needed it — his career minor league ERA is 4.65 and minor league WHIP is 1.57, and with that incredible stuff he’s only struck out 7.14 batters per 9 innings. Even now, with his terrific ERA, his K-rate hasn’t significantly improved, though his walk rate has noticeably decreased.
May 15th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
Alex has gotten the point of my thought on the two-outs/less than two outs disparity in the Braves’ offense, but to clarify… It’s not just bunts. It’s the whole “productive out” paradigm (runner on second, hit behind the runner). And over the last few days, I thought they were pressing with runners on base, trying too hard to get hits rather than let the pitcher make mistakes. A walk is not as good as a single, but it’s a whole lot better than an out. McCann in particular is swinging at a lot of first pitches he normally wouldn’t. He’s actually hitting rather well with men on base, but his isolated power is about 100 points lower than with the bases empty.
May 15th, 2008 at 3:13 pm
I think the “we score more with two outs” thing is obvious; the more outs there are in the inning, the more runners (on average) there will be on base, and therefore the more RBI chances there will be. So it would be weird to be scoring more runs with no body out than with two people out, but the way it is currently is nothing short of intuitive.
I’m also not as concerned about the bullpen as others seem to be. Frankly, our pen is stacked. We’re going to get something like 40-50 innings each of out Soriano, Gonzalez, and Smoltz from the pen. So while it looks bad now, once we have two or three of those guys back and Boyer is our 3rd or 4th option, the pen is going to look stacked. Don’t get me wrong, I’d prefer if we were getting two innings out of one guy every 3rd night instead of one inning on two consecutive nights. But I don’t think it’s going to be a major issue down the road.
May 15th, 2008 at 3:29 pm
Alex, I understand all of that, but the point is that Scherzer’s exactly 1 year younger than Morton. He’s the better prospect, sure, but the disparity isn’t nearly as great as you make it out to be when you act aghast at the suggestion that there’s a comparison to be made between the two and then emphasize that Morton’s been in the minors for 7 years. Scherzer ain’t King Felix, is what I’m saying.
May 15th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
Hey Will or Alex, what should we make of Deunte Heat?. Last season like Hanson, he pitched great in the first half of lo A. Then we he got promoted he struggle with his control at Hi A. I seen him pitch once at the Low A allstar game, but he threw nothing but fastballs. Can you give me a brief scouting report on him please?
May 15th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
Stu, true and true. All I’m saying is, Scherzer has succeeded at every level, is younger and has been better-regarded his entire life by scouts and statheads alike. Morton has terrific stuff, but he’s clearly not Scherzer’s level — and until he even remotely approaches Scherzer’s performance, he won’t be.
May 15th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
Well, for what it’s worth, Scherzer was originally a 43rd round pick of the Cardinals (in ‘03) before heading to Missouri to play college ball. The Braves took Morton in the 3rd round in 2002.
Scherzer hasn’t “been better-regarded his entire life by scouts and statheads alike,” unless by “his entire life,” you meant, “for the past 2 years or so.”
Scherzer’s a hot name right now and of course has a big-time arm, but again, I think you overstate their relative worths as prospects.
May 15th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
Stu, now thats what I call backin what your talkin about up. Pretty much Alex looks like a fool after this comment: “All I’m saying is, Scherzer has succeeded at every level, is younger and has been better-regarded his entire life by scouts and statheads alike.” No disrespect to you Alex but he just plain made you look bad and made you look like you dont know WHAT the heck you are talkin about with his comment number 32.
May 15th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
braves#1,
Totally unnecessary. I hope you realize how lucky you are to have Alex writing for you. He’s rational, he’s a heckuva good writer, and he loves baseball, especially the Braves. Like I said, I just think he overstated this point a bit, which most of us are inclined to do from time to time.
Alex,
I hope you realize this dude doesn’t speak for me. I apologize for bringing that kind of heat on you.
May 15th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
I agree with Alex on this one. Scherzer is certainly a far better regarded prospect than Morton, however I think both have the potential to be very good. Alex is right in pointing out that though Morton has good stuff, he hasn’t turned that into consistently good performance in the minors. He isn’t as polished as Scherzer but also doesn’t have the injury concerns that a lot have about Scherzer.
And Braves#1, that really isn’t an end-all point. Was Matt Bush thought to be a better prospect than Justin Verlander, Homber Bailey, Jered Weaver, etc. when they were drafted? No. Was Rick Porcello really thought to be a late-first round value last year? No. A lot of where players go can depend on bonus demands and the likelihood of them signing.
May 15th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
Stu, no harm, no foul. I spoke out of turn because I didn’t have the draft info in front of me. I know that Morton’s stuff has been well-regarded for years. But he has been around for years, and the problems he had at draft time — poor command — were problems he carried around with him for five and a half years in the minors, until last fall and this spring. I want to believe the improvement is legitimate, but I just don’t want to jump the gun, because I don’t want to risk negatively affecting his development for the long haul.
May 15th, 2008 at 4:26 pm
Will,
You’re comparing late first-rounders to 43rd-rounders? I think it’s fair to say that a high school kid taken in the 3rd round probably had a significantly higher scouting profile than a kid taken in the 43rd round, regardless of contract demands.
Alex,
I don’t disagree with any of what you say at #36 there. At all. I do think, though, that it’s not unreasonable to be genuinely excited about Morton, who might finally be harnessing the electric stuff that made him so highly regarded not all that long ago. 24 isn’t terribly young, but it’s young enough that he conceivably hasn’t hit his full stride as a prospect yet.
May 15th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
Again, many factors that can have an impact. One of them is still signability. A ton of well thought of prospects drop very far if there is no chance of signing them. Another example would be Chuck James. Heading up to the draft, he was being talked about as a first round pick. He got injured, broke his wrists I believe, and dropped to the 20th round. Guys like Tommy Hanson with very impressive stuff but control or some other issue go as draft and follows (not any more) in the very late rounds. And then there are some people who just figured it out in college. Regardless, in their pro careers, Scherzer has been easily regarded as the better prospect.
May 15th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
Will,
I have a very in-depth understanding of the MLB draft system. What I’m saying is that no kid with what’s considered 3rd-round ability drops to the 43rd round for any reason other than (a) jail time or (b) serious injury, neither of which were the case with Max Scherzer coming out of high school.
And, as should be clear from what I’ve said, I’m not disputing that Scherzer is more highly regarded as a prospect now. I’m suggesting that the perceived disparity between these guys’ respective abilities as major league pitchers might not be fully accurate.
May 15th, 2008 at 5:15 pm
First off, I don’t think it is a valid argument to use draft position of two high school players from six or seven years ago to talk about their current abilities. Second, I don’t think anyone is disputing that there isn’t a huge difference in potential between Scherzer and Morton. If that is the point you are trying to make, then it seems like we’re all in agreement.
May 15th, 2008 at 5:30 pm
Where did I use their respective draft positions to “talk about their current abilities”? I was just debunking the Alex-fueled myth that Scherzer had always been considered a better prospect that Morton.
May 15th, 2008 at 5:56 pm
Well, if prospect means professional prospect, then that is true.
May 15th, 2008 at 6:18 pm
Will, if you’ll stop being blindly argumentative for just a minute and go read everything that’s been written upthread, I think you’ll be able to see exactly what was said and, therefore, how silly your insistence on hammering home this point with which no one is arguing really is.
May 15th, 2008 at 7:25 pm
I don’t think you can accuse me of being argumentative without doing the same for yourself. You just said that you debunked Alex’s idea that Scherzer has always been a better prospect that Morton. Well, Alex is correct in that sense. Scherzer was immediately a top hundred prospect when he signed. Morton has been in the minors for 6-7 years and has never been a top hundred prospect. I’m sorry if you misconstrue providing opinion as being blindly argumentative.
May 15th, 2008 at 8:03 pm
Whoah I meant no disrespect to Alex. Alex is a really good writer and knows a heck of alot about the Braves. And I have said something like Alex said and looked dumb at it too. Heck I am sure we all have. Heck I know I have made retarded statements on here before. Well I dont know if I made any sense in this comment but I was not tryin to put Alex down, even though it might have seemed like it, sometimes I say stuff that people take the wrong way.
May 15th, 2008 at 11:05 pm
braves#1, you used the word “heck” too much in your last post. Heck I might just start saying heck too, heck.
May 16th, 2008 at 9:21 am
Heck, go nuts, D’Andre!
May 16th, 2008 at 9:38 am
Edo River,
As a former jr. high school math teacher, have you ever heard of probability? Isn’t that just another word for luck when a quarter lands on heads 10 times in a row?
May 16th, 2008 at 9:57 am
Will, it’s patently obvious that you either (a) still haven’t gone back and read what’s actually been said, or (b) just refuse to admit when you’re mistaken. You continue to mischaracterize what I’ve said (maddeningly, in exactly the same way each time) and then argue against positions I have not taken, so I’m not going to waste any more of my time e-talking into this e-wall.
You’re still pretty young, right? Like in early college or just out of high school? It shows.
May 16th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
I think you’re taking this a bit too personally. I really mean nothing by this but your comment was…
“Where did I use their respective draft positions to “talk about their current abilities”? I was just debunking the Alex-fueled myth that Scherzer had always been considered a better prospect that Morton.”
You said yourself that you were debunking the myth that Scherzer has always been considered a better prospect than Morton. I disagreed. Those are your exact words so if somehow I am misinterpreting them, please tell me.
May 19th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
LOL. OK, Will, I’ll try one final time to clarify. You’re picking out one thing I said and taking it completely out of context. As I’ve repeatedly suggested, you should go back and read my Scherzer-Morton comments from the beginning to understand that the bit you quoted was simply shorthand for my previous comments.
(1) Alex argued that Scherzer “has been better-regarded his entire life by scouts and statheads alike.” (Post # 31)
(2) I responded by pointing out their respective draft positions, with the implication being that it wasn’t true that Scherzer was always more highly regarded than Morton, as Morton was regarded very highly coming out of HS, whereas Scherzer wasn’t yet at that level of esteem in the scouting community. (Post # 32)
(3) I later made reference to the same point in the bit you quoted above. (Post # 41)
(4) You, apparently without reading the preceeding comments for context, argued against the specific phraseology of post # 41, arguing that “if prospect means professional prospect, then that is true.” (Post # 42)
(5) I suggested that you read for context, etc. (Post # 43 & 49)
(6) You responded in a fashion evincing that you were persisting in your failure to read for context. (Posts # 44 & 50)
Again, you’re arguing with points I’m not making. And you’re refusing to read the points I have made. Doesn’t make for much of a discussion.
I don’t expect you to acknowledge that you misunderstood me or that you were mistaken in responding without reading more carefully, because apologizing and admitting error aren’t your style (see: Mike Hampton’s injuries and your commentary thereon), but I do want you to know that I don’t take this personally at all.
May 19th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
Listen, I’m sorry that I responded with an opinion to your exact words. I should maybe assume next time that you mean something besides what you were actually saying. If you want to be this pushy about getting an apology then maybe you should re-phrase what YOU said next time. I guess it’s just too bad my ESP ain’t working because then I could have read your mind to actually know what you were thinking instead of what you wrote.
As far as Mike Hampton, if he never pitches this season in the majors, I will admit I was wrong because you know what, I said that he would at least pitch. Until then, don’t act like I should be admitting fault. It’s like someone coming to me and saying that I should admit fault for calling that the Braves would be in the playoffs because if the season were over today, they wouldn’t.
May 20th, 2008 at 4:08 pm
Will, I won’t utter (type) another word about this, but you’re wrong here, and you don’t do yourself any favors by being so stubborn.
Now, go ahead and take the final word you’re dying to have.
June 13th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
[…] to see what will happen over the next couple weeks. So what the hell went wrong? I’ve written a couple “Explaining Mediocrity” articles, but I’ll be honest: I didn’t expect us to be this […]
Leave a comment