Response to Evan Brunell: Trade Tex for Youkilis? Absolutely.
Evan Brunell of Fire Brand of the American League (and CEO of MVN) just posted a crazy idea: trading Mark Teixeira to the Red Sox for Kevin Youkilis (and a prospect like Michael Bowden). I’ve been pretty constant in my belief that Tex will not bring back much of anything worthwhile in a trade, and Evan acknowledges that it’s unlikely: “I’m not naive enough to think that this trade actually has a chance in hell of it happening.” We probably have different reasons for thinking that: I would doubt the Sox would be willing to give up as much as Youkilis and a prospect, and he seems to doubt the Braves would trade Teixeira. It’s very possible we’re both right. But that doesn’t mean I don’t think it’s a great idea. If it were ever possible, I’d be all for it. Here’s why.
As Evan says, “The Braves get a cost-controlled player for the next two years to replace Teixeira at first and a stud pitching prospect to work into the team.” Between Tim Hudson, Charlie Morton, Jo-Jo Reyes, Jair Jurrjens, and Jorge Campillo, we have a pretty good starting rotation that we can control for a few more years, but the Sox have quite a few terrific prospects, and Bowden would be one worth having. He’s 21 in AA with terrific strikeout and strikeout to walk ratios. Youkilis, of course, isn’t quite the offensive force that Teixeira is, but he’s not too far off and he’s a great deal cheaper (and the Braves would control him for two more years). Youkilis’s career line is .285/.383/.453, while Tex is at .285/.371/.534. Yook is actually having a much better year than Tex this year, lapping Tex by 72 points of OPS. Tex’s defensive reputation is better than Youkilis’s, but a) that’s probably overblown, and by RZR and fielding percentage the difference between them is probably slight at best, and b) first base defense almost doesn’t matter, as long as they can catch the ball.
If the Braves let Tex walk, they get two draft picks. Draft picks are wonderful, but even first-rounders often don’t make the majors. Youkilis is an extremely productive major league hitter who’s only slightly worse than Teixeira. (Teixeira’s much more of a star, of course, but on-base percentage is far more important than slugging, so Tex’s large edge in slugging — which has disappeared this year — is partially mitigated by Youkilis’s smaller edge in OBP.) He’s cheaper, and the Braves would have him for several years after the deal, which is important because at the moment the Braves have no first baseman for 2009. Michael Bowden is the cherry on top, and he’s a prospect most organizations would kill for, well on his way to Major League stardom.
The Braves are somewhat in contention for the playoffs this year, and so would be understandably reluctant to look like sellers. Dealing a star for prospects or other pieces usually sends a message to your fans that you’re giving up on this year in order to have a better shot next year. However, again, the offensive hit the Braves would sustain by switching from Teixeira to Youkilis would be minimal at worst. Notwithstanding that Youkilis is hitting better this year, Teixeira’s simply not as good of a hitter as Scott Boras would lead you to believe. He’s very good, but he’s not elite. He’s solidly in the second tier of major league hitters, which Youkilis also occupies. Because the offensive hit would be minimal, exchanging Tex for Youkilis would not affect the Braves’ ability to contend for their division this year, and it would better position the Braves to contend for the next two years we’d have him manning first base.
The knocks on Yook that Evan mentions are that he had a rough second-half slide last year (.238/.356/.391) and that he seems to be the sort of player who would have a short peak and a relatively young decline (probably because he has old player skills). I didn’t love the way the Red Sox handled Youkilis, rebuffing other teams who asked after him while burying him in the minor leagues until he was 25, so that his first full year in the majors didn’t come until he was 27. Apparently, they knew he was a valuable hitter, but neither had space for him on the major league roster nor wanted to trade him, so they simply held on to him without letting him start. He’s actually a year older than Teixeira. The first concern is much more worrisome than the second. As we’ve seen with Teixeira this year and with LaRoche in previous years, it’s very hard to weather a middle-of-the-order first baseman deciding to disappear for an entire half-season. However, assuming that he didn’t completely disappear, it seems likely that he will stay a very good hitter for at least the next two years. Hitters with his skills — high walks, high strikeouts, fairly good power, slow baserunning — do tend to drop off quicker than most, but they’re usually able to survive at least into their early 30’s, which is as long as we’d have him. If he fell off after that, it wouldn’t be our problem.
Again, this has no chance of happening. Evan seems to think it would be a great idea for the Sox. As far as I’m concerned, we’d be robbing them blind. I’d be all in favor of this happening. Here’s hoping Frank Wren and Theo Epstein get creative.
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33 Responses to “Response to Evan Brunell: Trade Tex for Youkilis? Absolutely.”
June 30th, 2008 at 8:02 am
AJC’S BOD has discussed this situaiton, draft picks vs trade for veteran many many times over the years. I think the Braves usually choose veterans in these situations, and I agree, for the reasons you cite here. We usually have the impression that the Braves more easily let veterans walk rather than sham negotiations for the sake of draft picks. Or People will always bring up the situation with Greg Maddux, etc. etc. I am not always up to date on the specific conditions of the team budget at the time. I just trust management on this.
Yes. I would trade Tex for Youkilis alone. Why? because I want the Sox to kill the Yankees and I would do it simply for that. Right now Tex isn’t playing like he’s worth 2 players.
June 30th, 2008 at 8:03 am
Sorry, “DOB”
June 30th, 2008 at 9:08 am
I guess what you think of a trade like this depends on whether you are really giving up on this season or still want to take a shot at the playoffs. If you want to give up, this makes all the sense in the world. If you want to go for it this year though, it would seem to make more sense to gamble on Tex returning to being the dominant hitter he was last August - September and keep him. With all the injuries to the offense, that extra edge in slugging Tex has over Youkilis could be very meaningful to the Braves’ postseason chances. I wouldn’t do this trade right now but my opinion could change depending on how the team plays in July and where they are in the standings on July 31.
June 30th, 2008 at 9:45 am
The half-year Tex had for us last year was the best second half of Tex’s career. I wouldn’t count on him to return to that level. Youkilis is also having a career year. Both performances are aberrant, and even though Youkilis’s true offensive level is lower than Teixeira’s, it’s not that much lower, and, Frenchy notwithstanding, Tex’s lack of production at cleanup for the first two months of the year was arguably the single biggest offensive problem on the team.
June 30th, 2008 at 11:02 am
no, Tex is elite.
June 30th, 2008 at 11:39 am
Lets do it !!! Who are we kidding ? we are going nowhere this yr. We can’t beat anyone w/o Chipper and he’s headed to the DL til after the all-star break. We’ll be 10 games out by the time he comes back !!! sorry folks just my opinion !!
June 30th, 2008 at 11:59 am
He’s not elite because he’s at first base, which is the position from which you expect the most offense. If he hit like that at any other defensive position, he’d have more value.
June 30th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
Gary, why are you giving up already? We just hit the midway point last week and we’re only 4 games back. That’s nothing.
And yes, the Braves do better when Chipper is in the lineup. But he’s not a one-man team. They can win without him if the rest of them get their act together.
Way too early in the season to be giving up.
June 30th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
Sign Barry Bonds, already!
June 30th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
Kristi : sorry, just having a 1 man pity party. Seriously, If the Phillies hadn’t gone in a tailspin like they have , we would already be 10 out. I just don’t like our chances w/o Chipper. I will still hope and cheer w/ the best of em………but………I just don’t see it happening.
June 30th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
Ugh, no thanks on Barry Bonds. His attitude would change the clubhouse and the team…and not in a good way!
June 30th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
I would definitely make that trade…we should be so lucky.
June 30th, 2008 at 2:16 pm
First, Kristi, the Braves aren’t just better with Chipper in the lineup–they are pathetic without him. The Braves cannot even contemplate winning without Chipper in the lineup for an extended length of time. The rest of the team just isn’t that good. The outfield has nothing and the middle infielders are solid but don’t have much power. They cannot win without Chipper.
Second, Why would the Red Sox make that trade? They lead the division, are defending champions, and are widely acknowledged to be the best team in baseball. Even granting that Tex is better than Youkilis, as Alex notes, the difference is marginal and I can’t see where it would be worth breaking up a championship team.
I have been against trading Tex because (1) it sends a bad message to give up when you are still close; and (2) I didn’t think you could get much for a two month rental. But I would at least seriously consider this trade if it were available. But I don’t think it is.
June 30th, 2008 at 2:21 pm
Its not available, but I wouldn’t mind it. Instead of Bowden, I recently heard the Sox have a AAA pitcher who won’t see time for a while who is a knuckler like Wakefield…+3-5 mph on all of his pitches. He won’t get a shot for a while because he is buried in the Sox pitching depth, and he is older (which is fine because he is a knuckle ball pitcher). I wouldn’t mind picking him up with Youk for Tex because he would be a great innings eater in the middle of a rotation.
June 30th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
Here is an article on that knuckleballer:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/17/sports/baseball/17pitcher.html
June 30th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
Trade Tex for pitching, get pitching by trading Teixeira.
June 30th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
By the way, I would like to point out that the Phillies are about to take Meyers out of the rotation. How long now before Moyer, Kendrick, and Eaton come back down to earth and stop performing over their respective heads?
I know that Coach mentioned his 88 wins standard, which I understand can be used for the most part. However, this year I think the NL East resembles the 2006 NL Central…everybody is falling apart or collectively too young. It may only take 80-85 wins to win this division meaning that the Braves are very much so still in it.
June 30th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
Also, Buster Olney mentioned the Yankees might be in the market for a 1b soon if Matsui is seriously injured. Can anyone else smell a TEXas sized fleece for Hank Steinbrenner?
June 30th, 2008 at 2:53 pm
Marc, thanks for seeing my point about the braves chances w/o Chipper. I pray that I am wrong. GO BRAVOS !!
June 30th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
I am now starting a new website. www.benchfrenchyNOW.com
June 30th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
The Yankees would love to have a guy like Tex, obviously, and Boras would love to see Tex in pinstripes. But Cashman is keeping a much tighter hold on his prospects — and with Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes’ lackluster performances so far this year, the Yankees aren’t looking quite so loaded with upper-minors talent any more. (Though that may mean they’re not quite as untouchable as they used to be. Hard to know.) I’m not quite sure who we could pry from them, though the prospect of getting Hank Steinbrenner excited enough to demand that Cashman overpay to make a deal would be enticing. Cashman made a major gamble on not trading for Santana, and the Yankees are in third place. Hank may decide to make a stand.
June 30th, 2008 at 4:02 pm
That is what I would hope for in our shoes. Hank isn’t baseball smart, and I don’t think he will have any problem telling Cashman to get Tex or else (seems to be his attitude with everything). Hughes and Kennedy failing cannot have helped Cashman’s position and probably will give Hank the idea that taking the reigns is a good idea. That would be really good for the Braves. Who knows who Wren could fleece Hank for in that circumstance.
June 30th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
On the topic of barry bonds, I don’t think all the media attention he brings would be good, but that’s not what I worry about the most with him. I asolutely do not think he could play left field defensively. He was a terrible fielder these past few years and now he’s been sitting for the past 6 or 7 months. I think McCann would be a better left fielder at this point. Now, if you were to trade tex for prospects and sign bonds for first base, that would be another story, but I think the negative attention would be more trouble than it’s worth.
June 30th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
Well, it’s not a bad idea at all. However, I think that the Yankees would be the better fit.
For several reasons.
1. The Yankees are the one team who would be willing to give up prospects while fully knowing they could resign Tex after the 2008 season is over.
2. Jason Giambi’s days in a Yankees uniform are numbered despite that fact that he is having a very solid season.
3. The Yankees are desperate for pitching. Packaging Chuck James and Mark Teixiera together would bring four or five (prospects) players in return.
4. The Yankees are in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time in fourteen seasons, pride is at stake for the Bronx Bombers.
5. Hank Steinbrenner is an even bigger idiot than his old man. But like his father, he wants to win at any cost and has the money/resources/prospects to burn.
June 30th, 2008 at 5:44 pm
I think the redsox are just as capable of re-signing him as the yankees. The differences are that cashman has grown more cautious from fear of yankee fans and of george steinbrenner, so he keeps his prospects close. Hank Steinbrenner is the wild card here because you never know what cause he’ll get behind. I’m wondering with all this speculation over these teams if Tampa Bay would be willing to look into an upgrade over Carlos Pena/Willie Aybar at first. They’re right in the hunt and Tex is a bigger upgrade for them than for either the yankees or the red sox and tampa has a ton of prospects.
June 30th, 2008 at 6:19 pm
The Rays may be willing to step up, considering their advance in team development and in order to compete with the Sox they will have to eventually do this kind of thing.
June 30th, 2008 at 7:55 pm
The Yankees dont really have much that I am interested as far as prospects. About the only guy that I would want is Hughes. Kennedy is sooo overrated that its just not even funny. Tabata would be nice but WHY do we need ANOTHER outfield prospect? Yeah I know you can NEVER have too many of nothin but still. Horne? ehhhhh not too high on him. I would pretty much demand Hughes for Tex or just say forget it and we will keep Tex and try to win this year anyway and then get the draft picks for him. I doubt that the Yankees would trade Hughes though, so forget the Yankees. There prospects are SOOOOO overrated anyway. I think they have 2 true prospects that COULD be stars and they are Tabata and Hughes. I guess if we was about 8-10 games out by July 25th or whatever then I guess gettin Tabata and maybe Kennedy or Horne would be better than settling for draft picks, but im just not too high on Kennedy and Horne.
July 1st, 2008 at 1:37 am
The Yankees Alane Horne is the sleeper pitching prospect that most casual fans have not heard of.
He was originally drafted in the first round by Cleveland back in 2001, opted for college instead and blew out his elbow requiring tommy john surgery. The Yankees took him in the 11th round of the 2005 draft.
Scouting Report:
Horne has a power arm, throwing 93-95 mph with his 4-seam fastball. On top of that, Horne posses a plus power curveball. He also throws an effective slider and changeup. He’s always had decent command of his fastball, but has only recently been able to throw his other pitches for strikes, which has been the catalyst of his success this year. Horne has a power body that fits his style. He’s a smart guy who knows how to use his arsenal to it’s fullest.
Horne had another arm injury earlier this season with a partially torn biceps tendon. He has since returned to the mound and made five starts. Horne is 2-2 with an ERA of 4.35 in seven total starts. He was 12-4 wit an ERA of 3.11 last season in AA Trenton.
Here are some other Yankee prospects of note.
Brett Gardner, can you say Brett Butler clone? He was just promoted to the majors on Monday(yesterday).
Brad Suttle, switch hitting 3rd baseman taken in the 4th round in the 2007 draft.
Ian Kennedy, 1st round right handed pitcher taken in the 2006 draft.
Shelly Duncan, big 1st sacker taken back in 2nd round of the 2001 draft, son of Dave Duncan and brother of Chris Duncan. Decent player who will never get a shot at playing full time in pinstripes.
Austin Jackson, 21 year old OF taken out of high school in the 8th round of the 2005 draft.
I’m not adverse to the idea of packaging Mark Teixeira and Chuck James together and trying to find out just how many players (prospects) that the Yankees would be willing to cough up.
July 1st, 2008 at 1:45 am
The idea that the Red Sox would monkey with their team chemistry at this juncture is just ill informed because they won’t.
As for the Yankees, there is no telling where the meddling of Hank Steinbrenner will take that team.
July 1st, 2008 at 8:50 am
Team chemistry is overrated, and the Sox know that. That’s why Theo Epstein was willing to deal Nomar Garciaparra about 6 months into the job. They’ll make a deal if they think it’ll make them a better team. I don’t think Evan’s proposed trade would, but I would love it if it happened for the Braves.
I like some of your guys a lot more than others. Following his big-league audition, Kennedy looks a bit more like a National League type, a guy with good control but only okay stuff who relies on keeping hitters off-balance. Shelley Duncan isn’t really a prospect; he’s 28, and he’s batting .175 this year. Like his brother, he’s a pretty one-dimensional player. He wouldn’t be the worst guy to have on our bench — he’d probably be better than Norton — but he really doesn’t do anything well and will probably be washed up as a major leaguer in a few years, if not much sooner.
July 1st, 2008 at 10:17 am
Coach, I’m pretty sure all of this stuff is purely debating “what if” scenarios. That said, if Matsui is in fact going to have surgery, than the Yankees will DH Giambino and look for a 1b. Tex may be the most available and Cashman will almost certainly inquire. IF the Yankees get involved, history tells us that the Red Sox will get involved, if for no other reason than to drive the cost up for the Yankees. In that scenario, maybe the Youk-Tex thing COULD happen. Nobody is saying that this is a legit rumor.
July 1st, 2008 at 2:58 pm
Right. This isn’t a rumor — this is one blogger coming up with a “Wouldn’t it be great if?” and another blogger responding with “Yeah, it would be sooo great.”
Because, you know, it totally would be.
July 2nd, 2008 at 1:49 pm
[…] Youkilis and, say, Michael Bowden. In response, Alex Remington at Braves blog Chop-n-Change says, take my first baseman - please. Some Braves fans it might be worth the Braves while to trade for Youkilis straight up. Wow, are […]
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