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7/3 Game Thread: Can We At Least Not Get Swept?

By Alex Remington | July 3rd, 2008

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This year, we’ve been swept four times (Rockies, Reds, Phillies, Cubs) and we’ve swept four times (Dodgers, Reds, Padres, Mets). Let’s try to keep that balance even. Going into the series, we were three games under .500, playing a team that had been playing horribly till they met us, and getting Chipper Jones back into the everyday lineup. Now, following consecutive shellackings of Charlie Morton and Jorge Campillo, we’ll be lucky if we can just break a four-game losing streak. And we’ll have to do it the hard way, facing Cole Hamels, pretty much the only good starting pitcher they have.

I’ve complained enough about the bad season, attempted to analyze the various sources of our ills, so I’ll spare you some of that for now. Instead, I’ll talk a little about Jair Jurrjens, our pitcher today. If you can believe it, he’s actually almost a half-run of ERA lower than Cole Hamels: 2.94 to 3.38, an ERA+ difference of 139 to 131. One reason for the difference is that, while Hamels has struck out substantially more batters and walked slightly fewer batters than Jurrjens, he has also allowed three times as many homers, 15 to 5. Jurrjens has also been getting a lot more ground balls, 50.7% to 38.6%, while he and Hamels have a nearly identical LD%, 21.4% to 21.7%.

Jair’s essentially a two-pitch pitcher, fastball and change, with a slider he mixes in only occasionally. (In Josh Kalk’s PitchFX sample, Jair threw 65% fastballs, 32% changeups, and 3% sliders.) Despite Hamels’ famous change, he actually throws fewer changes and more breaking balls than Jair — 60% fastballs, 24% changeups, and 16% curveballs. But while Jair’s fastball is a little faster (92 on average, compared to around 90 for Cole), his change is too (84 to 80), so the spread in velocity isn’t as great.

The ERA difference doesn’t hold up in all of the advanged stats. While Jair maintains a slight edge in FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, 3.31 to 3.69) and NRA (Neutralized Runs Allowed, 3.40 to 3.52), he’s actually got a worse xFIP (expected FIP, 3.95 to 3.72) and DERA (3.90 to 3.74). And Hamels maintains a sizeable edge in Pitching Runs Created, 59 to 45.

Jurrjens’ major advantage over Hamels this year has been his ability to limit the homer, a skill he also had in the minors. Hamels is generally vulnerable to the longball, as he yielded 25 last year, and 19 in only 23 starts in his rookie year. If the Braves can’t put him over the wall, they’ll have a lot of trouble with him: he’s already had 7 starts against us, and is 4-2 with a 3.59 ERA in 47 2/3 innings.

Jair will be making his first start against the Phillies, and is coming off his best start of the year, 8 shutout innings on only three hits against the Blue Jays, the only game we won in that series. He seemed to be hitting a slight wall at the end of the spring, as 4 of 5 starts from May 16 to June 5 had game scores below 50 (the general line between an effective start and an ineffective one). But he’s put together three good starts in a row since then, capped by the gem in Toronto. Hamels’ last three starts have been 7 innings each, in which he has given up 2, then 3, then 4 runs respectively. Hopefully we can continue that streak by laying a 5-spot on him.

Let’s put up some crooked numbers and reclaim a bit of our dignity.

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19 Responses to “7/3 Game Thread: Can We At Least Not Get Swept?”

EJRuiz says:

July 3rd, 2008 at 12:34 pm

Love the stats, Alex! I wonder, is Cole really vulnerable to the longball or is he just cursed by having to pitch so many starts in Philly? Jair has been amazing this year (the single most plesant surprise of our season) and I hope he keeps that going for some time longer!
Brent says:

July 3rd, 2008 at 1:17 pm

Hamels has actually been much worse on the road than he has in Philly. He has a 4.21 ERA in away starts this year so it is actually not an issue of pitching in a small park. He’s given up 6 home runs in 47 away innings, vs. 9 in 73 innings at home- so he has been equally susceptable to the long ball wherever he pitches.
D'Andre "Horrible Luck" Williams says:

July 3rd, 2008 at 1:18 pm

We will be lucky to get 3 runs off of Cole Hamels. Hamels is a great pitcher, but more importantly he is a lefty. We all know how we struggle versus lefties. Hopefully Jair Jurrjens can match him pitch by pitch.
Edward says:

July 3rd, 2008 at 1:32 pm

God help us today…tonight’s game will be a Massacre…close your eyes, childrens!
Kristi Dosh says:

July 3rd, 2008 at 1:37 pm

Two streaks I hope continue through tonight:

1. JJ hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last three starts.

2. The Braves haven’t lost a game where I’ve sat in my “lucky” front row seats - we’re at 4 and counting!
Brent says:

July 3rd, 2008 at 1:40 pm

I’ve trashed Francouer enough that I feel I should at least post this interesting piece from Rob Neyer this afternoon:

“According to Francoeur’s page at the Hardball Times, he’s hitting like he usually hits. Of his batted balls, 21 percent have been line drives, which is actually a career high (last year the figure was 19.4 percent). Forty-four percent of his batted balls have been grounders. Again, nothing new there; in 2006 and ‘07 the figures were 45 percent and 43.3 percent.

Here are Francoeur’s batting averages on balls in play (not including home runs) in each season of his career: .337, .284, .337, .267.

It looks like his skills haven’t changed much, but his luck has. Which is generally true about baseball players. Their skills don’t actually change much at all from season to season, but their luck’s all over the place, and the latter explains a pretty hefty percentage of the roster moves you’ll see over the course of the season.”
Kristi Dosh says:

July 3rd, 2008 at 2:11 pm

Interesting piece of Frenchy. Thanks for sharing!

I still contend that he needs a few days off to clear his head. I heard someone say the other day that 90% of the game is mental and the other 10% is in your head. Truer words have never been said.
Gary says:

July 3rd, 2008 at 4:10 pm

Hey Alex…………..my man Gregor Blanco is doing a decent job in the leadoff spot………don’t ya think ?
Alex Remington says:

July 3rd, 2008 at 4:50 pm

Gary, your man Gregor Blanco is doing alright out of the leadoff spot (.314/.397/.373), but on an absolutely unsustainable BABIP of .381. After an outrageously long slump, 42 games from May 12 to June 24, he batted .204/.311/.263, an OPS of .574. In the 6 games since June 24, he’s hitting .520/.571/.600 — he’s a streaky kid.

Overall, though, I think we have a pretty good idea of what he is: a decent fourth outfielder who can’t hit enough to hold a starting job but who isn’t the worst player on the field as long as Jeff Francoeur keeps trotting out to right.
Coach (Fed up with management) says:

July 3rd, 2008 at 5:43 pm

As for the previous discussion concerning the managing job of Bobby Cox. I just have one more mind blowing comment and I’ll stop.

Who was and still is the greatest manager the Braves ever had and I’m not just referring to the managerial accomplishments in Atlanta. If your answer was Bobby Cox, you would be wrong.

His name is Joe Torre and when Ted Turner fired him back in 1984, it was the worst mistake this franchise ever made.

My reasoning is solid and very easy to understand. Given what Joe Torre accomplished with the Yankees, rewind and put him in the managers job in Atlanta from 1982 to the present and try to convince me that this franchise would still only have one World Championship.

By the way, in comparison, Torre is 4 for 6 in World Series contests and 74-50 overall in the post season. His 74 post season wins are the most in Major League history.
Edward says:

July 3rd, 2008 at 10:50 pm

In Tonight’s game….the Braves just WAVED the Great White Flag!!….We Surrender!!!
Kristi Dosh says:

July 3rd, 2008 at 11:40 pm

I could definitely argue that Torre wouldn’t have done better in Atlanta. With their untouchable payroll and constant parade of stars through the clubhouse, the Yankees have always been on a different level than everyone else (except perhaps the Red Sox over the past 5 years or so). You can’t say that he would have had the same success in Atlanta. Yes, we had some great players over the years. It’s pointless to debate whether Torre could have gotten us more than one WS title. There’s simply no way to really quantify the impact a manager has on a team. So many things have to come together to make a team successful.
Dee "Embarrassed and Disappointed" Will says:

July 3rd, 2008 at 11:57 pm

uuhhhh, that was an embarrassing series versus the Phillies. Thank God I don’t know any Phillies fans. If I did they will be ripping me right now (LOL). I don’t understand how we get swept, when the whole team said that this is a must win series. I am just speachless on how our 2008 season has went. I know that we suffered some brutual injuries, but that really is no excuse. We where in majority of our loses, but we just can’t pull out wins.

I am just hoping that Frank Wren doesn’t go out and try to “Save the Season,” and make some big deals by trading our top prospects. If we don’t resign Teixeira or trade him that “Save the Season” deal last year is going to bite us in the future.

I would still like for us to add a guy like Jason Bay or Xavier Nady, because they can help us this year and next year. Plus, they’re relatively young outfielders. Other than that I hope Wren doesn’t do anything. May be trade some players (Infante, Ohman, Ring, Gotay, Norton, Teixeira) if we’re like 6-8 games back close to the deadline.

I am just disappointed on the way how we have played this year. I am really flabbergasted and speechless.
Edo River says:

July 4th, 2008 at 12:21 am

Frenchy is just unlucky. What an insight. Might as well join “the flat earth” society. But hey, if Rob Neyer says its true, then its true

And this whole year can be written down as “unlucky”. There isn’t any skill involved, its all a matter of luck. The Phillies and Marlins and every other team that we lose to are just luckier than we are.

And we don’t have any skill when we beat a team, they are just unlucky. And so it goes in the flat earth baseball teams. No skill in mudville, Casey was just unlucky.

The Phillies didn’t beat us, they were just lucky.
I agree with youze, it is much better to believe in luck, because with skill, it can be measured, luck can happen without measurement.

Remeinds me of “potential” as unlimited and unbounded and unmeasurable as “luck”. Perhaps ….(no I shouldn’t beat a dead horse).

There is nothing wrong with appreciating the results as facts. Losing is just a fact. I can appreciate living and thinking in a world that has facts and measurements. The outcome of this game doesn’t say anything more than whatever you believe it means
Alex Remington says:

July 4th, 2008 at 1:00 am

The outcome of this game doesn’t say anything more than whatever you believe it means

Hey, let’s not get too relativist and crazy. The outcome of this game says several undisputable things. The Braves lost; Jair Jurrjens gave up three homers; Cole Hamels continued to pitch well against the Braves; the Braves got swept by the Phillies for the second time this season. There are a number of different conclusions you can draw from those facts, but you can’t draw any conclusions that are contradicted by those facts.

And you certainly can’t say that what we saw over the last three days was remotely acceptable.
Erod says:

July 4th, 2008 at 1:32 am

FRANCOEUR SENT TO AA….Jason Perry Called up from AAA……http://braves.scout.com/2/766987.html
Edo River says:

July 4th, 2008 at 5:39 am

Alex *-)
Man can’t this display any more icons than 3? and ?

Alex, let’s talk about Cubs fans, while we are looking up at them for once in a great great while (I donno, did we beat them last year?)
About 3 years ago, I used to think Cubs fans were some kind of baseball saints. I couldnt understand how they could be so loyal, year after crazy year. I mean how could you support a losing team??? Now I know. I have greatly changed my ‘tude over the only mass participation sport I am really interested in. Now I know what its like to be a Cubs fan. No saint here. Just I enjoy the game a bit more and have less heart burn over a win or a loss. There is always a positive side. A minor leaguer to wait for, a trade maybe, or getting jazzed over another team worse than mine…..
Rays or Cubs or Marlins (no,despite the youth, I prefer the Cubs…there are so many BSox and Braves connections over the years….I really enjoy the competition over Lance Berkman vs Chipper, etc.) I’ll have to start reading the Cubs blogs I suppose well, not really, I don’t have that much time.

Erod. Much as I think Francoeur could benefit from being sent down, you and I know it will never (my wife says, “Don’t ever say never”) happen. A box of Japanese sweets if it does.
Kristi Dosh says:

July 4th, 2008 at 9:38 am

When are we all getting our Japanese sweets?
Dee "Embarrassed and Disappointed" Will says:

July 4th, 2008 at 2:21 pm

I want my sweets Erod!!