Chuck will be pitching in one of the more extreme hitters’ parks in the majors, Citizens Bank Park, where he had a 5.52 ERA in 3 starts last year (only 14 2/3 IP). He had a very nice 16-3 K/BB ratio, but was sunk by 4 homers, as you might expect when a flyball pitcher like him goes to a bandbox like that. Career, he’s 2-0 against the Phillies in 6 starts, with a 4.08 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, a 35/6 K/BB ratio, and 8 homers. Other than the homer bug, he’s been terrific against them.

His opposite number is Cole Hamels, who outpitched Steve Carlton before he was born. Cole also outdueled Chuck in their only meeting, last August 10, one of the Braves’ patented one-run losses. Chuck got no decision after giving up 4 runs in 6 innings (Cole gave up 4 in 7), as the Braves defense hung the loss on Moylan, who gave up the winning run on a single, sac bunt, and a Yunel throwing error on a grounder to short. Hamels is having another terrific year this year, 4-3 with a 3.36 ERA in 8 starts. Against us, though, he’s got a 4.42 ERA, 42-10 K/BB in 38 2/3 innings, and he’s given up 8 homers of his own.

So we have a chance tonight, if we bring out the whupping sticks. Let’s go get ‘em.

Update: Crap, Chipper’s been scratched.

We’re slow. Yes, I know I keep saying speed is overrated, but you guys are right — it’s important when a guy can’t score from second on a single, or when you can’t get down the line fast enough to prevent a twin killing. We’re 3rd in the league in double plays, just about the worst offensive occurence there is. We’re 12th in the league in stolen bases, but we’re tied for 4th in the league in stolen base percentage, which means we’re making the most of opportunities when they present themselves. Brian McCann is possibly the slowest player in the league, Mark Teixeira has below-average speed, and Chipper’s perpetually-injured legs don’t have a lot of sprint left in them either. And our lack of speed feeds Bobby’s worst instincts to take men out for pinch runners in late innings, which hamstrings us whether we tie the game or don’t.

We are burning out our bullpen. I’ve said this before, but it’s no less true. We’re leading the major leagues in appearances by our relievers, 133 bullpen calls in 38 games this season. We’ve used an average of 4.5 pitchers per game, which is the second highest in baseball, just a tick below the Mets. When the pen has pitched, the results have been mostly positive, as we have a 3.74 bullpen ERA, which isn’t shabby, but considering that we have our best 4 relievers on the DL — Soriano, Moylan, Gonzalez, and Smoltz — we’d better find a way for our starters to start going 7 innings a game every game, or else we’ll start putting James Andrews’ great-grandkids through college.

Our situational strategy is screwed up. Bobby Cox has made a lot of questionable in-game decisions this year, both with the bullpen and with the bench. We have almost twice as many sacrifice bunts as sacrifice flies — 16 sac bunts and 9 sac flies. This helps highlight a fundamental misunderstanding of the term “productive out.” I do think that sac bunts can be appropriate when a pitcher’s at bat, and there our pitchers have been less than productive. Jo-Jo Reyes blew two sac bunt opportunities last night, and our pitchers have only collected 9 sac bunts on the season. Kelly and Yunel have 5 of the rest, which is stupid, because they’re top-of-the-lineup hitters, placed at the top of the lineup specifically because they’re supposed to be able to get on base without making out.

We’re hitting a lot better with 2 outs than with no one out — .794 OPS versus .725 — and the plurality of our runs have come with 2 outs. Mac Thomason has suggested one reason for this wide disparity is that, with no outs, the team is frequently looking to give away an out on a bunt, whereas with 2 outs the team swings away and is consequently much more productive. I don’t put a lot of stock in RISP stats, but ours aren’t good, as we’re batting only .250/.340/.375 with runners in scoring position. It’s certainly possible to see the team pressing in a high-pressure situation, which is borne out by our stats in close-and-late situations: .240/.324/.330, more than a hundred points below our overall OPS.

Ultimately, “situational strategy” is a bit like “productive out”: mostly an oxymoron. If we could hit our normal OPS with runners on base — when the pitcher should be nervous himself, trying to avoid the walk while also trying to avoid throwing a meatball — we’d be just fine. All this bunting, double-switching, and LOOGY burnout obscures the fact that we’ve got a really good team, with a good offense and a good pitching staff. We don’t need to play for one run, play for individual matchups, because every time you play the odds with a switch you have a good chance of coming up short, and you also lose the ability to use that player later in the game. Bobby outthinks himself, and he’s done it a lot this year, to the team’s detriment.

Of course, our Pythagorean W-L is 23-15, so in an alternate universe somewhere we’re leading the division, instead of mired in 4th. While I don’t quite know why the Braves have done so poorly, I have an inkling of why Pythagoras hates us: we’re bean-eaters.

It’s rainy and cold in Pittsburgh — it seems to be rainy and cold everywhere. Jair Jurrjens was blowing on his hands a lot. Greg Norton is playing first base for Mark Teixeira, and I’m sure Scott Boras will find a way to turn that into positive spin.

The Braves are on the verge of being swept by the Pittsburgh Pirates. Let’s think about that for a second, guys. Don’t do it.

This step from A-ball to double-A is generally considered the biggest step for a prospect and this holds true even more so for Hanson. That’s because the Pelicans’ home park is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the minor leagues and Hanson has been incredibly fly ball prone this season. Hanson, who has yet to give up a homerun for the Pelicans, could see a number of those fly balls start leaving the park if his 0.45 GO/AO doesn’t improve significantly.

After a disappointing second half last season, Hanson has probably vaulted himself into the top ten pitching prospects in the game with his work so far. His ranking at the end of the year and more importantly his timetable to the majors will rely a lot on what he does against the tougher competition and in the much more neutral environment in Mississippi. The only negative peripheral has been his fly ball rate but that could become a big issue if he doesn’t get it under control.

The Pirates just picked up Jason Michaels from the Indians and demoted Nyjer Morgan; in my opinion this is the sort of roster tinkering that really doesn’t make a difference for a 70-win ballclub, but our friends at Honest Wagner approve of the moves. Morgan sucks a lot, and Michaels sucks marginally less, so they improve on paper.

The Pirates are actually a better offensive ballclub than you think, with 171 runs through 34 games, a little better than an average of 5 runs per game. A lot of that is the utterly insane Nate McLouth, who is batting .324/.406/.640, with 9 HR and 29 RBI. He’s not that good — almost no one other than Chipper is — but he actually might be a good ballplayer, and he wore us out the last time we played the Bucs, 5-14 with a walk, two doubles, a homer, and 4 RBI. Xavier Nady’s also out of his mind, .349/.411/.558, with 5 HR and 34 RBI; Jason Bay’s bouncing back from a horrible year last year, and Ryan Doumit’s hitting very well too. (Adam LaRoche isn’t.) They’re not pushovers, but other than those guys they have a lot of automatic outs in their lineup, so Tom Glavine should be able to handle them.

Ian Snell on the mound for them, Tom for us. Let’s push it to 7 in a row.

• Through the first month of the season, the Braves had only completed one three-game sweep. We’re now six games into May and the Braves have already doubled April’s total after a 5-4 win against the Padres. Matt Diaz came through with a ninth inning, bases-loaded single for the Braves’ first one-run win of the season. Not everything was good though as Jo-Jo Reyes had to leave early with a blister and Buddy Carlyle exited after a collision with a runner at first. It does put us ahead of the Mets by a half game though.
• Rookie starter Jair Jurrjens has been a key part of Atlanta’s success and now it is time to show the 22-year old starter our appreciation. Jurrjens is one of four rookies up for the National League Rookie of the Month award. He is up against Geovany Soto and Kosuke Fukudome of the Cubs, and Kyle McClellan of the Cardinals. Do your part and cast your vote — you might even win a trip to this year’s All-Star game.
• It was all but certain that Peter Moylan would undergo Tommy John surgery after he was transfered to the 60-day DL, but now we can officially close the books on him his season as the side-arming reliever went under the knife on Thursday. Dr. James Andrews performed the surgery — which was a success — and determined after seeing the bone spur in his elbow that rehab would not have gotten the job done.
• Sorry, more injury news but this time it is good… kind of. An MRI of Rafael Soriano’s elbow showed no structural damage, which had become a concern after soreness in the elbow caused him to call off a recent bullpen session. There is still no timetable for his return but with this good news, he will continue his throwing program.
• I promise that this is the last thing that has to do with an injured Braves pitcher. John Smoltz could be throwing as early as this weekend. The veteran starter/reliever/whatever might begin playing catch sooner than expected after saying that in his ten days off, the pain has pretty much gone away with only some stiffness remaining in his injured right shoulder. Smoltz will eventually go down to the minors for a rehab assignment but could be back as early as late May.

Infante was acquired from the Cubs this off-season along with Will Ohman, however he’s been out since suffering a broken hand in winter ball. I said once the injury occurred, that by the time he was back, Martin Prado could possibly displace him as the main utility infielder, however his injury as well as some shaky defense really made that impossible. Infante can play second, third, short, and in the outfield, and will pretty much take over Prado’s duties. While he probably won’t hit at the level Prado was, the added versatility of being able to play shortstop and the outfield means that he’ll probably stay the main utility infielder as long as he hit at a reasonable level.

For most of the game, it really wasn’t as close as the end score makes it look. Chris Young didn’t have it, but he pitched 5 innings anyway. Jurrjens had another great start, but was at 102 pitches after the 6th and so I guess Bobby didn’t want to take any chances. Better an early hook than a late one, of course, but Bobby decided to bring in Ohman — who can only get lefties out — to pitch a full inning, and Ohman gave up an RBI triple. (He also was charged a hit for a liner that Kelly really should have caught, but the triple was definitely Ohman’s fault.) Then he brought in Boyer, who’s almost certainly headed for another surgery at this rate. Then Acosta (the “closer”) started the 9th, got an out but gave up two hits, and so Royce Ring and Jeff Bennett finished the game by pitching to one batter each and getting one out each.

You all know I don’t like seeing a bullpen handled this way. Ohman and Ring are unable to get right-handers out, so they can’t be used to pitch a complete inning. Boyer and Acosta can, and so can Campillo; Buddy Carlyle’s more of a ROOGY, and he ought to be replaced by Phil Stockman. Bennett’s our long man. Using one-out pitchers to pitch one inning and one-inning pitchers to pitch one out is a pretty obviously inefficient use of resources, not least because it saddles everyone with more appearances as they have to put out each other’s fires. And season-ending surgeries are bad for morale, bad for bullpen continuity, and pretty painful for the guy in question, too.

The offense was great when Chris Young was in the game. Chipper Jones and Kotsay homered, and everyone had a hit but McCann, who walked, and Mark Teixeira, who left 5 men on base and is annoying me in the cleanup spot. Greg Norton grounded out in his first NL at-bat, but he did so on the 8th pitch; if he can work the count like that, he’ll be a fine pinch hitter. Then everyone took a nap. As soon as Young left, the Braves were completely shut down for three innings of no-hit ball by the immortal Glendon Rusch, and I hope they’re as embarrassed by that sentence as I am.

But here’s the upshot: the Braves followed a demoralizing 4-game losing streak with a 4-game winning streak, and are now above .500 for the third time this season. On each previous occasion, the Braves lost at least 2 in a row to drop below .500 again. Let’s see if we can put a little daylight between us and the mediocrity mark.

Tonight we’ll face Randy Wolf, whom we’ve been playing for a LONG time. In 21 starts against us, he’s 4-9 with a 5.02 ERA, which is a bit strange, because he’s the sort of little left-hander that always seems to give us improbable fits. We’ve scored 30 runs in the past 4 games, so hopefully tonight we’ll continue to remember how to hit. Tim Hudson pitches for us, coming off his best start of the season — by game score, the best start of his career, and the best start by a pitcher this season. (9 innings, 3 hits, 10 strikeouts, no walks, game score of 91.)

Meanwhile, this year, the Padres have a knack for making any pitcher look good against them, as they’re batting a collective .232/.303/.343, with a collective 82 OPS+. Just for the sake of comparison, Jake Peavy has a higher OPS+ (84) than anyone on their team other than RF Brian Giles, 1B Adrian Gonzalez, SS Khalil Greene, and LF Paul McAnulty.

So just make ‘em hit it on the ground, Tim. I’ve got a good feeling about this one.

By the way, for those of you who listen to my podcast (hi, Mom!), BC Sports Treehouse Fort, the time has changed: it’s now on Tuesdays from 8:30 PM to 9:30 PM, and my segment is from 9:10 to 9:30 or so. Thanks for listening!

Let me rephrase that last part. I can understand why fans would be calling for his head – he does have a 7.71 ERA – I just think it’s a ridiculous reason when you take into account what’s behind that all-encompassing number. Are Braves fans truly that impulsive about ERA that they can’t look beyond that one stat with a grand total of 4.2 innings in the books?

I would understand the frustration if he came with the same hype he had as a prospect, but no one expected him to come on and be a dominating all-purpose reliever or future-closer. Ring has been ineffective against right-handed batters this season (all four of his earned runs have been to righties) but the Braves knew that when they sent Wilfredo Ledezma and Will Startup to San Diego, they were getting back a LOOGY. His job is to get out left-handers so don’t be shocked if he struggles with batters stepping in from the other side of the plate, that’s why he’s a LOOGY.

The most disappointing thing to me is that even Bobby Cox seems to undervalue Ring. Neither he nor fellow LOOGY Will Ohman fare well against righties and both are effective against left-handers, yet for some reason, Ohman has pitched just under eight more innings than Ring this season and has been used on a much more regular basis. Here’s the problem; Ring has been significantly better against left-handed batters.

In fact, you really can’t get much better as a LOOGY than what Royce Ring has done so far this season. The 27-year old has used that big sweeping slider to hold left-handed batters to a miniscule line of .154/.267/.308 this season. Of the 13 he’s faced, two have reached off of hits (both doubles), one was hit by a pitch, one was walked, and of the other nine Ring retired, six headed back to the dugout after striking out.

Don’t worry, it gets better. Two of the four runs Ring has been charged with this season came during an April 5th game against the Mets where Ring was pitching mop-up with a six-run lead in the eight – a position where the reliever is told to go in, throw strikes, and pitch to contact. The other two runs came in his next game – ten days later – and the baserunners actually scored on back-to-back, two-out, bases-loaded walks by Will Ohman.

Maybe Royce Ring deserves just a bit more credit for his performance than he is getting. Then again, you could just look at his bloated ERA and tell yourself he’s terrible. I’ll leave you with just one more thought. One of a reliever’s biggest responsibilities is not allowing inherited runners to score. In his 12 appearances, Ring has inherited 16 runners and not one of them has crossed the plate.

Martin Prado badly injured his thumb sliding into first base yesterday, in a game we won 14-7. It is almost never advisable to slide into first base, least of all in a blowout, but it happened and Prado’s on the 15-day DL for what will assuredly be much more than 15 days; his thumb’s in a cast and MLB.com is reporting he has a grade 1-2 sprain and will likely be out 6-8 weeks, though no surgery will be required.

Anyway, the tireless Frank Wren acquired Greg Norton from the Mariners for a PTBNL and or cash. Norton’s getting on in years — he’s two months older than Mike Hampton — but it wasn’t so long ago that he was a pretty good bench bat. Trouble is, he can’t really play up the middle; he used to play mostly 3rd base, and recently he’s been a reserve outfielder, which we don’t need. So he’s a utilityman without a position. Of course, we’ll be able to find a place for him once Chipper starts missing games, assuming he can still play the hot corner, but for the moment we still don’t have a backup shortstop.

In order to make room for Norton, the Braves put Peter Moylan on the 60-day DL, and as Braves Journal’s Mac Thomason says, “This can pretty much serve as confirmation that he will have Tommy John surgery.”

Tomorrow we’ll face the Padres, but for now we can just bask in the glow of a 3-game sweep, our first since we swept the Dodgers April 18-20. Stay fresh, guys.