MVN blogger Jake Berlin in “The Bard’s Room,” the White Sox site here on MVN, recently posted “Regression,” referencing Tangotiger’s 2007 Marcel Projections. Essentially, one can download projections on how hitters and pitchers will do during the 2007 season.

I also came across an old link to Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster site, and his article, “The Great Myths of Projective Accuracy.” Shandler notes:

But through all their fine efforts at attempting to predict the future, there have been certain constants. The core of every system has been comprised of pretty much the same elements:
* Players will perform within the framework of their past history and/or trends.
* Skills will develop and decline according to age.
* Statistics will be shaped by a player’s health, expected role and home ballpark.

These are the elements that keep all projections within a range of believability. This is what prevents us from predicting a 40-HR season out of Juan Pierre or 40 SBs for David Ortiz. However, within this range of believability is a great black hole where any semblance of precision seems to disappear. Yes, we know that Albert Pujols is a leading power hitter, but whether he is going to hit 40 HRs, or 45, or 35, or 50, is a mystery.

You see, while all these systems are built upon the same basic elements, they also are constrained by the same global limitations. We are all still trying to project…
* a bunch of human beings
* each with their own individual skill sets
* each with their own individual rates of growth and decline
* each with different abilities to resist and recover from injury
* each limited to opportunities determined by other people
* and each generating a group of statistics largely affected by tons of external noise.

So what does this mean for Brewers’ GM Doug Melvin and skipper Ned Yost in determining who to play, and when, for the 2007 season? First, every Brewers’ hitter will be affected, somewhat, by the change to Jim Skaalen as the hitting coach. Skaalen will start from scratch in looking at the swing, the stance, and probably even the bat weight. Then, as Shandler noted, some players have increased their mental and physical abilities, while others likely have seen at least their physical abilities decline, or at least change–e.g., J.J. Hardy may approach his pre-season training differently as the result of his injury last season, thus over emphasizing some muscles, while favoring others. Of course, the pitchers’ stats and performance this season will no doubt be impacted by seeing Alfonso Soriano 14+ games this year versus half that last year…not to mention seeing former teammate Carlos Lee; Jeff Suppan will have to face Albert Pujols and the Cardinals this year instead of the Milwaukee Brewers…and we know Derrick Turnbow will get a lot less saves than last year.

Of course, there are daily variables as well…not only who the batters will be facing on any given day (and that pitcher’s set of changes), but also, in Milwaukee’s case, whether or not the roof is open or not and, if not, what the wind velocity, wind direction and humidity are. Even a player’s second AB against a pitcher has a whole new set of variables: the pitcher’s thoughts on what the hitter did in his first AB, the hitter’s adjustments based on what he saw during his first AB, and, of course, differences in pitches based on how many baserunners are on base, what the score is, and how many outs there are.

What’s this all mean? Hey, maybe Geoff Jenkins might be a .300 hitter this year!

David Hannes
Copyright 2007

Recall that I already posted:
Some quick numbers then…Capuano will make at least $3.25 million, as will Estrada; Graffanino will get at least $2.5 million, as should Billy Hall; Mench should get at least $3.5 million (I’ve heard closer to $5 million, but who really knows these days?)...

Chris Capuano:
‘06 salary: $450,000, 3 years experience
Brewers’ offer: $3.5 million
Player’s offer: $4.25 million
End Result: $3.85 million for ‘07; $4.15 million for ‘08; club option for $5.5 million for ‘09 or $0.5 million buyout. Capuano wants some security, and a 2-year deal for $8 million will make him a happy camper.

Billy Hall:
‘06 salary: $418,000, 4 years experience (3 of which as a reserve)
Brewers’ offer: $2.75 million
Player’s offer: $3.5 million
End Result: $3.0 million for ‘07 only, plus $0.5 million in incentives…Hall rejected a multi-year deal last year, but will settle to avoid a hearing…and Melvin will want to keep his budding superstar happy, giving him some incentives to reach his submitted arbitration figure.

Johnny Estrada:
‘06 salary: $2.0 million with 5 years experience
Brewers’ offer: $3.75 million
Player’s offer: $4.5 million
End Result: $4.0 million for ‘07 with $250,000-$300,000 in incentives, $5.0 million for ‘08, with club option for $6.5 million for ‘09 or $1.5 million buyout. Melvin wants to lock-up Estrada, yet be somewhat cautious.

Kevin Mench:
‘06 salary: $2.8 million, 4 years experience
Brewers’ offer: $3.5 million
Player’s offer: $4.25 million
End Result: Arbitration panel sides with the Brewers and Mench gets a one-year deal for ‘07 for $3.5 million.

Tony Graffanino:
‘06 salary: $2.05 million, 10 years (mostly as a reserve)
Brewers’ offer: $2.6 million
Player’s offer: $3.25 million
End Result: Arbitration panel awards Graffanino the $3.25 million; Graffanino holds out and is rewarded for his experience.

Claudio Vargas:
‘06 salary: $1.275 million, 3 years experience
Brewers’ offer: $1.7 million
Player’s offer: $2.1 million
End Result: $1.825 million for ‘07; I forgot about Vargas’ contract in my earlier post; Vargas’ agent will want to avoid arbitration, and settle for less than the midpoint.

Okay, then…fire away!

David Hannes
Copyright 2007

McCalvy notes that it should be Sheets, then Capuano…and that Bush may get the nod over Suppan as the #3 starter.

David Hannes
Copyright 2007

1. SP Chris Capuano

2. SP Claudio Vargas

3. C Johnny Estrada

4. IF Tony Graffanino

5. OF Billy Hall

6. OF Kevin Mench

Essentially, all have been offered arbitration. Note that Melvin’s M.O. is to avoid arbitration hearings at all cost (if I recall correctly, the last one that actually went to a hearing and to the panel was back in 1992)…at this stage there are 5 possible outcomes:

1. The team and player reach a 1-year deal before exchanging figures.

2. The team and player reach a multi-year deal before exchanging figures.

3. The team and player reach a 1-year deal after exchanging figures.

4. The team and player reach a multi-year deal after exchanging figures.

5. The two sides cannot reach an agreement, and a 3-member arbitration panel hears arguements from both sides and picks one of the two figures.

The reality is that both sides have a pretty good idea, within a few hundred thousand dollars, of where the other’s submitted figure will wind up, and that having each side commit to a figure will more clearly define the negotiations. For example, say Kevin Mench’s agent submits a figure of $6.0 million, while Doug Melvin submits a figure of $3.8 million–once these are out on the table, both sides know that an arbitration hearing will result in one figure or the other. Say, then, that the Brewers’ representatives conclude that there is no way in hedes that Mench could convince the panel that he’s worth $6 million, Melvin then can shut down negotiations on Mench’s contract and just wait until the hearing.

Of course, it is rarely that easy…as players’ agents have a pretty good sense of the market and usually submit a figure that they know they have a shot at getting. Also, with 6 potential hearings, Melvin would certainly like to get most of the deals done beforehand–not only to save a bit on fees, but also to save time, get his payroll finalized, and avoid any chance of ill will caused by a hearing where he’d have to stress the limitations of a player.

The ‘07 group has a new twist, however–will Melvin be more gun-shy of a multi-year deal to avoid a hearing? Recall that last year, Melvin inked Brady Clark to a 2-year, $7.0 million deal to lock up Clark…and now finds himself saddled with three unwanted contracts: Clark’s, as well as Jenkins’ and Turnbow’s.

Therefore, here are my predictions on the six pending contracts:

Capuano: Melvin’s knows that Cappy’s late season meltdown in ‘06 might not have been a fluke, and that Cappy, despite being an All-Star, may be a first-half pitcher…that said, he knows that if he doesn’t lock-up Cappy for 2008 this year, he may have to pay him $7-$8 million for ‘08 if he has another 18 win season. Melvin won’t go 3 years, however, but will likely push for a 2-year deal, with a club option for a third year; as Cappy, if I recall correctly, benefitted from incentive clauses in ‘05, Melvin will shoot for getting some of these included to save on his base salary.

Estrada: Melvin knows that a 2-year deal would be beneficial, here, too–while its hard to know how well Estrada will do with a new ballpark, new hitting coach, and a whole new set of pitchers (well, except for Vargas and Aquino) to call, Estrada is key to the Brewers’ long-term plans…look for another 2-year deal here as well.

Hall: With the move to the OF, Hall’s value is now a bit less certain…besides being earmarked to start everyday, he’ll need to learn at least one new position this year…and possibly another OF position next year. This will be Melvin’s toughest call, but I think he wants to reward Hall for his patience and his potential and will also go for a 2-year deal with Hall, too.

Graffanino: Melvin only wants to commit to a 1-year deal here, and this one might go to arbitration…I can’t see Melvin giving away the farm on a reserve infielder, but you never know….

Vargas: Hmmm…Melvin should only be interested in a 1-year deal with Vargas, too, given his depth at starting pitching and Vargas’ inexperience.

Mench: Melvin would love to get a 2-year deal, provided the price is right…and he has a viable offer for trading either Mench and the new contract or one of the other outfielders. The reality, however, is that, until Mench proves himself, he’ll only get a 1-year deal.

David Hannes

Copyright 2007

If there would have been league average performances behind him, he would have given up six fewer runs.  Given that he only pitched 56.3 innings last year, six runs can mean a lot.  Adjusting his ERA for this difference would shave a full run off his ERA (5.85), which is still bad, but slightly less bad.  Plus, he pitched in front of a below average defense that might have added 0.15 to his ERA.  Which makes him, well, still bad.

I’m not trying to stick up for Gomer, obviously.  I think he’s a thrower, not a pitcher, overrated, and that the Brewers were stupid to hand him a three-year deal for $10mil.   Still, this just serves to remind me that there’s more to what we see from the “baseline stats”– there’s usually a whole ‘nother story to decihper.

And it takes a lot to admit that on my part. I’m a skeptic. Hell, I could often be called a cynic. My outlook on my favorite baseball team is usually no different. I see one little article about the worst baserunners of 2006 and think that maybe Bill Hall can’t play CF. Some people would say that I’ve been too critical of the Suppan signing (I think I’m being realistic). But every once in a while, I just believe in something, and defend it voraciously.

So I recently got into a friendly argument with some casual baseball fans (who needs ‘em!) about the Suppan signing. One of them referred to Soupier as the new ace of the staff. Even though I should have expected some(misinformed)one to have this idea, it was the first time I actually heard it uttered, and it confused me so much that I saw white and my ears rang. To me there is not any confusion as to who the best starting pitcher in a Milwaukee Brewers uniform: my captain, my ace, my scruffy looking nerfherder, Benny Sheets, one of the five best pitchers in the NL.

If you look at the last eight starts Benny made last year, it’s easy to see why I think he’s one of the best:

Okay, that’s an 11.6 K/BB ratio, 9.8 K/9, 0.85 BB/9 (!!!), 0.68 HR/9 (!!!!!), and a RA of 2.68 (lower if you count ER only, obviously). That’s Santana-like. Granted it’s only eight starts, and Sheets only made 17 starts for 106 IP last year. And given that he only made 22 starts in 2005, the health issues are a legitimate concern. Still is peripherals for the year were very, very good: a HR/9 of 0.76, BB/9 of 0.93, and a K/9 of 9.9. This shows me that the shoulder hasn’t hindered him. He had just two bad starts, one that was cut short due to a precaution, and three others that were not quality starts. That’s 11 QS in 17 GS.

If he’s over his dizziness for good, I think the rest of the stuff is behind him, and that bodes well for the Brewers. Since my friends’ reasoning behind the Suppan-is-ace argument was that he was durable (note: this is dumb — by that measure, Livan Hernandez is the best pitcher of the last 6 years) I offered my friends an over/under bet on the number of games Sheets would start in 2007. (They countered, of course, with an over/under for number of wins, at which point I threw up in my mouth a little. I tried to counter-counter with Quality Starts, but that was a lost cause from the get go.)

The number was 27. Would you take the over or under?

Subtracting out those that aren’t likely to make the roster, Doug has already spent $47.874 million (I included Carlos Villanueva’s $380,000 as the last reliever, but did not include Laynce Nix’s $398,000)…players remaining unsigned and awaiting arbitration and/or a contract are:
1. SP Chris Capuano
2. C Johnny Estrada
3. IF Tony Graffanino
4. OF Billy Hall
5. OF Kevin Mench
6. SP Claudio Vargas…I know the others have all been offered arbitration and pretty sure Vargas has as well.

Some quick numbers then…Capuano will make at least $3.25 million, as will Estrada; Graffanino will get at least $2.5 million, as should Billy Hall; Mench should get at least $3.5 million (I’ve heard closer to $5 million, but who really knows these days?)…given these numbers, the payroll would reach $62.874 million, or almost 4.8% over owner Mark Attanasio’s stated budget of $60 million…and these are conservative figures…and could wind up $2-$3 million more if any of the cases actually reach arbitration.

BOTTOM LINE: Mark Attanasio is going to expect either a winning team and/or a higher turnout at the turnstiles (well, at least I would)….

David Hannes
Copyright 2007

LF Corey Hart
2B Rickie Weeks
1B Prince Fielder
CF Bill Hall
C Johnny Estrada
RF Geoff Jenkins/Kevin Mench
3B Corey Koskie
SS J.J. Hardy
SP Ben Sheets
SP Chris Capuano
SP Jeff Suppan
SP Dave Bush
SP Claudio Vargas
CL Francisco Cordero

Some questions:
1. Why put Corey Hart in left? Hart’s limited experience last season was in right field, and would likely benefit from the extra time in the batting cages in Maryvale instead of the time spent learning the nuances of playing left field instead or right? Also, both Kevin Mench and Geoff Jenkins have logged time in left (although Jenkins’ time was a couple years ago).

2. Why not bat J.J. Hardy ahead of Corey Koskie…at least against lefties? Versus lefties last year (small sample sizes but the most recent data), Hardy hit .294/.368/.588 in 34 AB’s, while Koskie hit .263/.288/.404 in 57 AB’s…I suspect how this shakes out will depend on their performances in Maryvale.

3. Why wouldn’t Suppan and his megamillions get the nod over Capuano as the #2 starter (other than wanting to have a lefty start earlier in the rotation)?

4. Lastly, I know that I was an advocate last season for batting Fielder ahead of Hall, when his BA was still around .300; but doing so on a regular basis implies that Fielder is not going to have the power that Hall will…something that, at least looking at their physical stature and reputations, seems a little odd to me.

David Hannes

Copyright 2007

Forgive me for perhaps also being “naive” here, but I’m wondering if your post about your admittedly appropriate editorial did not dissolve into the very bias of which you accuse Hadricourt [sic].

While I also count myself “left of center,” and agree that most ballplayers are probably of a different political mindset, how does that necessitate that “the lot of them are…conceited, uninformed, disconnected, superficial, idiotic jerks”? That seems like a bit of a jump, sir. Unless, of course, you’re making into the same mistake Hadricourt does by “associating particular political stances for character” or lack thereof.

It’s true that ballplayers are guilty of being spoiled, aloof, and shallow, but I don’t think that has anything to do with them being conservatives. If I’m mistaken, and it does, then perhaps we should also analyze how the majority of left-leaning political bloggers I’ve read are smugly, even hypocritically, self-righteous, yourself now included. If being a CNN junkie or NPR addict is enough to qualify one as a ballplayer worth rooting for in your book, and if none of them “are worth idolizing” because they are of a different political persuasion than yourself, then personally I am glad you have turned to the cold hard stats of the game.

First off, I am certainly not able to deny that I am biased, or leftist. I am both. And while my criticism of Haudricourt stands — and I think it is valid — I certainly did not mean to say that baseball players are “conceited, uninformed, disconnected, superficial, idiotic jerks” because they right-wingers politically. I think that is a separate issue. Rather, I think that they become these things because they’ve been lauded all their life for their athletic ability, have things handed to them, get filthy rich for playing a game, don’t really have to live in the real world (whatever that is anyway), etc. It happens with most celebrities to one degree or another, especially professional athletes. That privilegde very well might inform their political opinions, but that is probably too undiscernable a connection to make in good conscience. I did not mean to make such a connection, but our good reader Andrew was warranted in bringing it up and calling me out.

As for myself, I may be smug. Hell, I’m an elitist. But I’m not requiring a ballplayer to be leftist for me to “like” him (would Fidel Castro have been my favorite player of all time? probably not), I’m just asking him to be more palpably human, a bit more nuanced. That’s why I always liked Dennis Rodman — yeah he loved attention, but the guy was weird, and he was honest about it. In the meantime, he was the best rebounder in the history of professional basketball.

But as I said, I’ve learned to repress my need for idols (that has been a dangerous and destructive need for the human race) in favor of a more objective and comprehensive view of the game. As I see it, character has very little to do with how one plays the game, and so in the end I don’t care what Suppan thinks about political issues. If he adds wins to the team, I’m for it.