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The 2007 Ex-Cub Factor
Hi, everyone. What’s new? With the Cubs back in the playoffs for the first time in four years I thought it was a good time to dip my toe back in the Cub Reporter writing pool again. Truth be told with the group of guys writing here now, I’ve been content to sit back and relax, and just read and enjoy. But since it’s playoff time, I thought it was time to dust off the old Ex-Cub Factor and see whose quest for the Commissioner’s Trophy is, ultimately, doomed.
For those who are unfamiliar with the Ex-Cub Factor, I wish I could point you to the pages and pages of stuff I’ve written about in the past, but all my All-Baseball archives are in limbo at the moment. I was able to find a couple of pages that show what the Factor has looked like back to 1980 (as well as showing my propensity for starting a big project and then not following through, but that’s another story).
So what is the Ex-Cub Factor? As I wrote long, long ago:
The Ex-Cub Factor was originally coined by writer and Cub fan Ron Berler, who wrote an article in 1981 stating that since the Yankees of that season had five ex-Cubs on their roster, they were doomed to lose the World Series if they got there. Chicago newspaper legend Mike Royko picked up on the factor early on, and was a tireless champion of it, especially after Berler’s 1981 prediction turned out to be right, as the Yanks lost to the Dodgers in six games.
The ECF is very simple: if you have three or more ex-Cubs on your playoff roster, you cannot win the World Series. Only twice since 1945 has the factor not held, 1960 and 2001. Interestingly in both of those cases, the ex-Cub-laden team won the Series by beating the New York Yankees in the bottom of the 9th inning of Game Seven of the Series. As Mel Allen said, “how about that?”
On to this year’s rosters (a caveat — playoff rosters don’t need to be set until tomorrow morning so it’s possible that some of these guys will be left off the rosters once they’re finalized. Of course, that only matters for one team, as you will see). Here are the ex-Cubs currently lurking on the rosters of the eight playoff teams:
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (3): Antonio Alfonseca, Tom Gordon, Jamie Moyer
LOS ANGELES ANGELS (2): Gary Matthews, Chris Justin Speier
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (2): Juan Cruz, Augie Ojeda
CLEVELAND INDIANS (2): Joe Borowski, Kenny Lofton
CHICAGO CUBS (1): Steve Trachsel
BOSTON RED SOX (1): Julian Tavarez
COLORADO ROCKIES (1): Latroy Hawkins
NEW YORK YANKEES (1): Kyle Farnsworth
So as you can see, the Phillies are phucked this year, since all three of those guys are locks to make the roster. All they can hope for, I guess, is to match up against the Yankees and hope that the Game Seven Corrollary continues to hold true.
One thing I think is interesting (though unrelated to the Factor itself) is that every single other team in the playoffs this year has at least one ex-Cub reliever. The Cubs have scattered their late-inning pitchers around baseball like a Johnny Appleseed of million dollar arms and ten cent heads, and many of them are pitching for a ring this year. Odd.
Oh, and to answer two questions that come up every so often:
* The Cubs can be affected by the Ex-Cub Factor. This came up in ‘98 when the Cubs had three ex-Cubs and I got a ruling from Ron Berler himself.
* Players who only played in the Cubs’ minor league system do not count. For this year that means the Red Sox don’t need to worry about Eric Hinske.
This entry was posted
on Tuesday, October 2nd, 2007 at 1:19 pm and is filed under Cubs 2007 Playoffs, Cubs History.
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16 Responses to “The 2007 Ex-Cub Factor”
October 2nd, 2007 at 1:35 pm
Welcome back!
I think the Phils are phucked no matter what because you have to win that game 7 in the bottom of the 9th against the yankees… at home.
October 2nd, 2007 at 1:40 pm
FYI, here’s the archived version of the old page:
ex-cub factor
October 2nd, 2007 at 1:49 pm
Overdetermined for Phils. They have Alf, who alone would doom the best team in the world, regardless of the number of fellow ex-Cubs on their team.
October 2nd, 2007 at 2:04 pm
Chris Speier was a Cub….in 1986! Julio Franco isn’t so interesting anymore. Does having a father who also played for the Cubs increase the ECF at all?
October 2nd, 2007 at 2:05 pm
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/ml.....p?c_id=chc
Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana residents can win NLDS tickets for Game 3.
October 2nd, 2007 at 2:19 pm
Oh sure, now he comes back….
Just kidding, Ruz. Welcome back!
October 2nd, 2007 at 2:25 pm
> Chris Speier was a Cub….in 1986!
D’oh! I meant Justin, of course…I’ll fix that.
October 2nd, 2007 at 2:46 pm
Colorado also has Dan Serafini
October 2nd, 2007 at 2:47 pm
Interesting Stats I heard on the score today…..
Arizona is the only team to ever have 90 wins when they gave up more runs than they actually scored.
The Cubs gave up 40 somethin less runs, and scored 40 somethin more runs than the D-backs.
Liking our chances!
October 2nd, 2007 at 2:51 pm
I hope Serafini gets to pitch
http://colorado.rockies.mlb.co....._id=122007
His ERA is 54.00. I doubt he made the playoff roster.
October 2nd, 2007 at 3:07 pm
All this optimism is making me nervous. Stop it!
October 2nd, 2007 at 4:03 pm
It really doesn’t matter who the Cubs play, what their record is, what weird statistics come into play. The bottom line is if the Cubs lose, it most likely will be the Cubs losing the series more than the other team winning.
October 2nd, 2007 at 6:20 pm
In years that Cubs have made the playoffs, hurricane activity in the Atlantic has been unusually low. This is because the low pressure systems that typically create the conditions for a hurricane have moved from the West Coast of Africa to just west of Lake Michigan around Addison and Clark streets. This unique atmospheric anomaly has the effect of lowering the ground temperature at Wrigley Field. So instead of the field feeling like 110 degrees with the humidity index, it only feels like 80 degrees or so. Thus, the incredible disadvantage of playing all of those day games in the Friendly Confines is neutralized. So pitchers can pitch in comfort, balls get caught and the atmosphere is less dense, meaning Cubs sluggers can pop them out with ease.
According to my climatologist friend I.M Storm, the tropical depression also brings the soothing breezes off of Lake Michigan in August and September, bringing the additional benefit of natural air conditioning. When I asked him if Global Warming would benefit the Cubs, play, his response was “of course it will.” No longer will the Cubs have to battle snowflakes in April or frosty nights in September. “They will have much warmer weather at both ends of the season.”
You might have also heard that legendary Chicago folk singer Steve Goodman (the author of the song “Go, Cubs, Go”) had his ashes spread in the outfield. So I consulted my friend Vig R. Ro, the famous horticulturist, what this would mean for the ivy and grass conditions. “As you know, human ash contains generous amounts of phosphorous and potassium, which is generally good for the grass and even better for the ivy.” In layman’s terms, that means balls hit out of the infield will roll slower and are more likely to get caught in the ivy. That will enable Alfonzo Soriano to get perhaps a second more to get to the ball and employ that cannon of an arm.
dailywombat.blogspot.com
October 2nd, 2007 at 7:19 pm
*golf clap*
October 3rd, 2007 at 10:50 am
[…] The 2007 edition of the Ex-Cubs Factor. (Cub Reporter) […]
October 4th, 2007 at 11:52 am
The Yankee’s Jose Molina is also an ex-Cub.
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