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The Cub Reporter
TCR Friday Notes (Sports Final Edition)
…for those that missed out on the West Coast scores.
- One of our wonderful readers, “Wolf at the Door” has been burning the midnight oil with all kinds of fancy charts and graphs over at the Wolf-Report. Fantastic stuff. His latest is a comparison of Japanese players making the transition to the majors, although he did forget one player….
- Tadahito Iguchi, who John Dewan points out had remarkably similar numbers to Fukudome in their age 29 seasons in Japan (that was two years ago for Fukudome). Iguchi’s first season with the White Sox produced a 278/342/438 line with 15 HR’s. That doesn’t sound $12M worthy.
- Another Dewan factoid questioning the effectiveness of the Cubs seven-year run as NL strikeout kings.
- I was actually going to mention that same “Stat of the Day” that Cubnut did earlier, but more for the fact that Zambrano has the most plate appearances (84) for a .300 hitter or above without a hit by pitch or a walk in a season (in 2005). I also wanted to note the one about “The Most Average Batters of All Time”. Bill Buckner leads the list of hitters with most career plate appearances and an OPS+ between 99 and 101.
- I thought this article was a fun read by Ken Arneson on “How to Defeat a Sabermetrician in an Argument”.
- A few weeks back I put up a video of Hendry watching a Felix Pie home run. Here’s the clip of the actual moonshot.
Enjoy the weekend….
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100 Responses to “TCR Friday Notes (Sports Final Edition)”
February 8th, 2008 at 9:21 pm
Iguchi’s first season with the White Sox produced a 278/342/438 line with 15 HR’s. That doesn’t sound $12M worthy.
=======
Iguchi’s first season with the White Sox produced a World Series Championship.
From Fukudome, I’ll take the top line and the bottom line and call it priceless.
February 8th, 2008 at 11:50 pm
What am I hearing buyers remorse on Fukudome. The guy hasn’t played a game yet for us.
February 9th, 2008 at 12:29 am
Don’t forget that Fukudome is being paid Aaron Rowand’s wages. So by one measure, if he performs at Rowand’s level (career .286/.343/.805) he will be achieving at his market rate. Let’s not get carried away with expectations.
February 9th, 2008 at 3:34 am
Excellent way of maintaning some perspective 433. That’s the way every cubs fan or chicago sports analyst should approach the contract. You are providing a considerable amount of solace for those of us dreading the “We Got Fuk’d” signs in the stands.
February 9th, 2008 at 4:26 am
I have had the impression that the reason Jacque Jones was welcomed with less-than-open-arms by the fanbase is that a) it was perceived he was signed for way too much money for his prior production, b) he was the 2nd or 3rd choice for the position and c) when he finally got here, he started poorly. It didn’t help that he continued to make visibly bad plays throughout his time with the Cubs, i.e., poor baserunning, rag-arm throws, a lot of Ks, DP propensity.
It seems Fukudome is awaited with a sense of positive anticipation, different than with Jones.
Some here have suggested that bald racism accounted for Jones’ treatment by the fans. That appears to have been true for a few regrettably vocal fans, anyway.
It’ll be interesting to see how KF does.
Now, I’m off to the golf course.
February 9th, 2008 at 7:45 am
Roberts Schmoberts…from the Miles Mannered Reporter
http://www.dailyherald.com/sto.....mp;src=152
February 9th, 2008 at 7:47 am
ditto…Sun-times, DeLuca:
http://www.suntimes.com/sports.....09.article
February 9th, 2008 at 9:45 am
The Roberts talk poses an interesting question:
Why aren’t we looking for a center-fielder instead?
February 9th, 2008 at 9:46 am
arent we trying to dump a RFer with a career
296/365/455 who makes 1/30th of that?
February 9th, 2008 at 10:30 am
Love your work Teen Wolf. Wonder why Hendry wasn’t interested in Tadahito but was interested in Kaz. Couldn’t just be that Kaz is left handed, could it? Think Tadahito would have been a good pick up, especially if only a one year deal.
February 9th, 2008 at 10:34 am
Makes no sense to dump Murton. I keep hearing that we want to be “more athletic”. I heard the same shit in 2006!
We need better hitting. Give me Murton who can produce (even though he will drop the occasional fly ball) rather than Byrd who can run faster, catch better but can’t hit a barn door.
February 9th, 2008 at 10:52 am
Wolf, you should do a scatter graph on Pie’s minor league stats compared to some other MLB center fielders. I picked for comparison Andruw Jones, Aaron Rowand, Curtis Granderson, B.J. Upton, and Torii Hunter. Jones, Granderson and Upton are at the head of the class in OPS, but the rest, on a cursory observation by my untrained eye, all seemed pretty well matched with Pie.
So in Hendry’s mind it’s reasonable to expect that Pie projects as somewhere in between an Andruw Jones type and an Aaron Rowan type.
The curious angle on it all is Torii Hunter, who had, over 7 seasons in the minors, a 269/.334/.416./750 line. In other words, like our own Geo Soto, and unspectacular minor league career but an eye opening final year in the minors.
Sometimes when you find a glove as good as Pie’s you bring them up and hope they produce in the big show. If they do, it’s just gravy. You add them to the bottom of the order and see what happens.
The mistake Cubs fans have been making is the same one they make year in and year out. They fool themselves into thinking some new kid is gonna be the savior. But major league baseball is too hard a game for anything to be a lock.
The kid needs a bunch of at bats at the MLB level. Period. No way to know how his minor league numbers will translate until this happens.
I’ve seen a lot of baseball in my time and I think Pie can be a good player, in spite of his rough MLB start. But there are so many variables, confidence being one of them.
I’m not worried in the slightest about fans turning on him the way they turned on Patterson, because fans knew that Patterson had no baseball instincts whatsoever. Pie will make a few spectacular plays and make the fans forget about any hitting education he experiences.
February 9th, 2008 at 10:55 am
btw, I enjoy the Wolf reports, too
February 9th, 2008 at 11:31 am
If two starting pitchers (Marquis and Gallagher), a starting SS (Cedeno) and a starting LF (Murton) isn’t enough for McPhail, then let’s move on.
Quickly.
February 9th, 2008 at 11:34 am
Looks like Wolf has hacked into the TLFCSC.
Unfortunately, we had to stop reading the site because of TLFC Rule #18, which states: “Scatter plots Bad, avoid univariate statistics and regressions.”
We’d also like to point out that during the Pie video, at both timer count 7 seconds and then, even more horrifically visible, 11 seconds, the image of former Chicago Sports anchor, Nightmare Fodder extraordinaire, and famous substance abuser, Pat O’Brien is clearly visible in an add for The Insider on the right field wall.
This leads to several questions: There’s a Spanish language “Insider?” The Licey Marketing Dept thinks that a great place for an Insider add? How big, to scale, is Pat O’Brien’s head?
Someone please tell us that we’re wrong. We can’t stop thinking about this. Dear Lord, please let pitchers and catchers report today.
February 9th, 2008 at 11:45 am
Interesting news…..mentions Len Kasper interview, Info from Bruce Miles and talks about Jim Henry planning to talk to McFAIL…….
http://chicagocubsonline.com/a.....s20908.php
February 9th, 2008 at 11:52 am
” I was actually going to mention that same “Stat of the Day” that Cubnut did earlier, but more for the fact that Zambrano has the most plate appearances (84) for a .300 hitter or above without a hit or a walk in a season (in 2005).”
Wow hit .300 without getting a hit. That was a cool trick.
February 9th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
Juicy Wolf Reports. Can’t wait for more.
My hunch is Fuku does a little better than the projected drop range of (160-200), say 140 or 150 for a 2008 OPS of 800-810…
…with I hope some exciting defense!
…and without Jacque’s dark first half.
P. S. Assuming the Fukudome OPS bar graph is correct, It looks like Fuku’s career and 2007 OPS #s should be switched in Wolf’s last Fukudome table? (The projections in red seem to be derived from the bar graph #s.)
February 9th, 2008 at 12:35 pm
Oops, my OPS drop prediction should read a drop of 130-140, not 140-150.
Where’s my proofreader!
February 9th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
Old and Blue:
Wolf, you should do a scatter graph on Pie’s minor league stats compared to some other MLB center fielders. I picked for comparison Andruw Jones, Aaron Rowand, Curtis Granderson, B.J. Upton, and Torii Hunter. Jones, Granderson and Upton are at the head of the class in OPS, but the rest, on a cursory observation by my untrained eye, all seemed pretty well matched with Pie.
That would be interesting. I always thought minor-league numbers didn’t always correlate to major league numbers, but it would be interesting to see if there’s a real trend.
February 9th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
–Regarding Post #18–
Actually, now that I think about it Jacque’s numbers in those two columns should be flipped as well.
Nit picking… the post is very enjoyable.
February 9th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
Thanks, fixed.
February 9th, 2008 at 1:52 pm
“- I thought this article was a fun read by Ken Arneson on “How to Defeat a Sabermetrician in an Argument”.”
Funny how I argued a similar thing around election time and you dismissed it…
***********************************
“Don’t forget that Fukudome is being paid Aaron Rowand’s wages. So by one measure, if he performs at Rowand’s level (career .286/.343/.805) he will be achieving at his market rate.”
They don’t play the same position.
February 9th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
That doesn’t mean you can’t compare them.
February 9th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
I love the way we talk about Japanese players like they will undoubtedly play exactly like other Japanese imports, the same way we think they all look alike.
Pie is a bitch by the way. We shouldn’t still be celebrating his winter league home run. Trade Pie and Murton and two pitchers for Roberts and put him in center.
February 9th, 2008 at 2:43 pm
That is ridiculous E. Baker. We don’t say they will play the same, the interesting part is how much the drop off will be (that was the subject of Wolf’s study). It has nothing to do with their ethnicity. And nobody here is idiotic enough to think they all look the same. Except perhaps for you.
February 9th, 2008 at 2:47 pm
Agreed mark. I read the study too, and it generally shows that power numbers decline as Japanese players play in the MLB. It is a different style of pitching over there, but if a player has a good eye at the plate, that will always transfer.
February 9th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
Yeah, it isn’t about ethnic baseball trends. We’re discussing the transition from one professional league to another, harmless.
February 9th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
Yeah, but that’s hardly worth mentioning. Everyone knows the numbers drop off. I’m not accusing anyone of being rascist.
February 9th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
E. Baker, we just can’t wait for the season to start so we can really see how Fuku plays. In the meantime, it’s fun for us to try and make as educated a guess as possible. If you’re not into it, no big deal.
February 9th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
arent we trying to dump a RFer with a career
296/365/455 who makes 1/30th of that?
Matt Murton is not a right fielder, at least not on a team that has any hope of contending.
February 9th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
d.ward played RF last year for the cubs…dont make him a RF…he was barely one 50+lbs. ago for houston. if not for bagwell he would have has his ass parked on 1st base.
February 9th, 2008 at 4:00 pm
The difference between Japanese players OPS (in Japan) and in MLB is 88 points lower here.
http://www.anothercubsblog.net.....-fukudome/
February 9th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
Brian Roberts in CF isn’t worth mentioning either, yet you did.
February 9th, 2008 at 4:29 pm
I like how Cubs fan’s reference, “Anothercubsblog” breaks out the OPS drop further to look at OBP. If you throw out the 133 point drop that Shinjo had, the average drop in OBP is only about 18.
I suspect that one of Fuku’s biggest draws for the Cubs was his OBP and like the other transitions from Japanese baseball to MLB the Cubs may expect only a modest drop in OBP.
February 9th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
I am going to announce to the press that I have been pulled from posting here, as I am the centerpiece of a pending multi-blogger trade for someone on an O’s blog.
Peter Angelos will throw a fit, and the trade will be held up for weeks, pending physicals.
February 9th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
Is anybody else’s mvn page really messed up?
February 9th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
I just laughed out loud.
February 9th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
…at Seamhead’s pending announcement.
February 9th, 2008 at 5:03 pm
Anyone else getting ads where espn.com used to be?
February 9th, 2008 at 5:06 pm
no one can compare japanese hitters across the board any more than you can compare AAA players across the board.
fuku’s probably gonna K a bit more based on his game.
he’s not allergic to, shy of, or ignorant of experience to breaking stuff playing over there, f’sure. he may not see too many mid+90s fastballs or sliders that break low-mid 80s, but he’s seen a grand share of changes, curves, sliders, slower fastballs with movement, and hello kitty advertisements.
that said, that paragraph above is mostly generalities and i got no idea what weaknesses he may have mixed up on those variety of pitches.
February 9th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
speaking of japanese baseball…
is anyone familiar enough with the culture of management/desire for players there that can speak on the defensive quality of japanese catchers?
“over here” a guy with a good enough bat can pervert the play of a C to simply a guy who catches the ball.
quality of arms of japanese catchers? anyone?
February 9th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
WBION, you are probably just seeing an interstitial ad — those obnoxious flash ads that fill up most of your screen. There is usually a very hard to find “close” link somewhere.
February 9th, 2008 at 5:34 pm
adblock plus + flashblock…for the win.
unfortunately flashblock has issues with multi-layered embedded video for a lot of commercial sites that use it (CNN/etc).
February 9th, 2008 at 5:42 pm
Timmer (#31),
Thank you for making the point before I did. God, Aaron, when will you give up the Matt Murton ghost? If he was a RF’r, the Cubs wouldn’t have signed Fukudome. Build a bridge Murton fans, and get over it because he’s gone. Maybe Rob G. can dress up the MVN site with black drapes the day he goes bye-bye. It doesn’t matter what his numbers are, he doesn’t play a position this team has open, will have open, and there’s no DH in the NL. I’ll be dead and my grandchildren will be in nursing home before the have the DH in the NL.
February 9th, 2008 at 6:00 pm
Yu Darvish to be posted next year? Could be the most expensive import in league history.
February 9th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
I suspect that one of Fuku’s biggest draws for the Cubs was his OBP and like the other transitions from Japanese baseball to MLB the Cubs may expect only a modest drop in OBP.
That was definitely their biggest draw and there’s no reason to not expect him to post a .370ish OBP in the big leagues in his career. We might even be lucky to get a year or two at or near the .390 or .400 mark.
As for your other remark, you can’t just throw out Shinjo as if he didn’t play here. He did. His dropoff is no less relevant than any of the others.
The thing to remember is that comparing Fukudome to only Japanese players who played in MLB consists of a very, very small sample size and while it may be fun to run the numbers and look at them, they have as much value as anyone here throwing out any random prediction for what they think he’ll do in the US.
February 9th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
“fuku’s probably gonna K a bit more based on his game.”
No bold prediction here. He has no “book” on any MLB pitchers yet.
For Pete’s sake, it will take him ninety days to get his feet wet here, at least. I hope most folks can be patient with him.
February 9th, 2008 at 7:00 pm
Interesting comment from DeLuca column:
“Fukudome’s progress figures to be slow as he adjusts to major league pitching, life in America and the madness that hovers around Wrigley Field. He likely will be relocated to center field if annual spring training tease Felix Pie doesn’t pan out.”
Didn’t know that was even being considered.
February 9th, 2008 at 7:10 pm
lord I hope its a possibility. His Rowand comp plays well in center. Muton or Better can handle Right and the club is better overall. Win Win. Also, The good Dr. has been in Breckenridge Colorado this week. If any of you have the opportunity to make the trip. I highly suggest it.
February 9th, 2008 at 7:17 pm
#45 George, Why do you have such a problem with a Murton type production. I don’t personally no murton and can care less if he is on the team. But why on earth are you so eager for the cubs to downgrade his bat? If Murton’s name was Andre Either or Nick Markakis would you hate him as much? At the bare minimum he is an above average bat to fit in a corner OF. Would you be happy to have Fkuk growing pains in right while Felix Pie hits 215 in center and Theriot hits 260 at short? At some point this club is going to have to score SOME runs. Maybe 80-85 wins is cool to some. I however want this club to make a sincere effort to play to their revenue/payroll. If I’m wrong then so be it. I do however suspect that there are others like me who feel the same way.
February 9th, 2008 at 7:57 pm
Aaron, it isn’t that I dislike Murton. It’s that he’s not a right fielder. You can put a dress on a pig, teach it to walk without a waddle, but it’s still a pig. My problem with the Murton love around here is that you are all beating a dead horse. Right, wrong, or indifferent, Lou doesn’t view him as a RF’r. Soriano is going to play LF (the only real position Murton can play) for 7 more years. I also believe anyone hoping Fukudome moves to CF for any significant amount of games is also in the middle of a pipe dream. Hendry didn’t get him to play CF and with Lou is going to no doubt give him every opportunity to acclimate to the USA by being in RF every day.
I don’t know if Pie is the answer in CF which is probably why Lou is pushing Hendry for a RH CF (Byrd, Payton, etc.). Someone who can play defense, hit .270 with a decent OBA in case Pie fails and Fuld, Patterson, et al don’t work out.
As for SS, Hendry and/or Lou passed on Tejada, Cabrera, and Renteria (or the Cubs didn’t have the prospects those teams wanted). Again, I don’t know why except Lou seems more than content with Theriot at SS even if the majority of posters here hate his guts.
Right now, I’ve got the Cubs payroll at about $115m and if Marquis goes in the Roberts deal there won’t be a significant change in $$$. Therefore, if a better CF, SS or SP is available, money shouldn’t be a problem.
Assuming they do get Roberts, we’re probably looking at a lineup like this: Roberts, Theriot, Lee, Ramirez, Soriano, Fukudome, Soto, Pie. IMO, that lineup should produce runs. What concerns me more than RF, CF, or SS is the rotation. After Z, Lilly, and Hill……..then what? Also, the closer situation doesn’t give me warm fuzzies. If Dempster moves to the rotation or is traded, are Marmol or Wood ready to save 35 games? To me, that’s where the real question marks exist for this team and will be the reason they only win 80-85 games.
February 9th, 2008 at 8:11 pm
Didn’t the Cubs win the division last year with a right field that consisted of Pie, Murton, Floyd, Jones and Ward? Doesn’t that disprove the statement “Matt Murton is not a right fielder, at least not on a team that has any hope of contending.”? He not only played right field for a contending team, he played it for two!
February 9th, 2008 at 8:32 pm
matt murton is a cruddy RF’r with an ordinary arm.
fuku can play RF/CF with an above average arm.
defense may not be sexy, but its part of why fuku is a cub more than his ob%.
February 9th, 2008 at 8:40 pm
Post 47:
As for your other remark, you can’t just throw out Shinjo as if he didn’t play here. He did. His dropoff is no less relevant than any of the others.
The thing to remember is that comparing Fukudome to only Japanese players who played in MLB consists of a very, very small sample size and while it may be fun to run the numbers and look at them, they have as much value as anyone here throwing out any random prediction for what they think he’ll do in the US.
——————–
cubs fan:
True that I can’t drop Shinjo; it’s just from a statisitical standpoint he is unlike the others. The point remains that OBP seems to have dropped more modestly than other factors.
Also true is that we are looking at a small sample size, but it is information and the caliber everyday player that has made the transition is similar. I think you are understating its relevance by characterizing it as no better than a random prediction.
In the end you are also right that speculating about how Fuku will perform is just fun, like predicting who will make a good fantasy player. I still say the evidence, no matter how limited, suggests that Fuku has a good shot to hold his own in MLB in terms of getting on base.
Like I said before, I’m saying 800-810 OPS and some exciting defense his first year in the US bigs.
February 9th, 2008 at 8:42 pm
Crunch,
I would also give the edge to defense over obp for reasons why the Cubs signed Fukudome.
February 9th, 2008 at 9:24 pm
There are four reasons the Cubs signed Fukudome.
1. He’s from Japan
2. He’s left handed
3. He plays good RF defense
4. He should be a capable MLB offensive player with decent OBP skills.
Regardless, the Cubs won the division last year with right fielders who hit .293 .375 .419, that lead the league in OBP! Murton was a big part of that. They were 10 runs below replacement in Right, according to BP and Murton accounted for 20% of that (Floyd 70%). If Fukudome is as good as advertised, his defense could account for 3 additional wins. If he’s just average, 1 additional win. His bat isn’t going to be better than what he replaced.
February 9th, 2008 at 10:23 pm
The Real Neal:
“If Fukudome is as good as advertised, his defense could account for 3 additional wins. If he’s just average, 1 additional win. His bat isn’t going to be better than what he replaced.”
I agree with your last statement and that is a lot of money spent to hope to get maybe 3 wins with.
February 9th, 2008 at 10:44 pm
Like I said before, I’m saying 800-810 OPS and some exciting defense his first year in the US bigs.
I think it will be better than that. I’d guess .825 career OPS in the big leagues and maybe a season or two at or near .875. That probably won’t happen next year as it won’t be an easy transition and no new Cubs player tends to perform at their best the first year anyway.
February 9th, 2008 at 11:05 pm
Looking at Wolf’s graphs again, I’d say Fukudome’s first three years could look like Hideki’s ‘03, ‘04, ‘05, even with career 850 potential.
I’m also really ready to see an outfield that can gun people down.
Well now, I’m getting myself all worked up, can’t wait to see what happens!
February 10th, 2008 at 12:35 am
Worthless BS article. We all know power declines when Japanese players come to the US.
Tell Wolfie to go back and do an article based on OBP and SLG — bust up OPS.
February 10th, 2008 at 12:52 am
power is almost a given to decrease coming to the US, yeah…you’re playing in bigger stadiums across the board.
but still…its not like these guys are playing highschool baseball or something. if anything, they’re seeing a lot more breaking stuff than your average major leaguer does.
if fuku can get around on the faster stuff he should be okay…only more likely a 15-20hr guy rather than a 30+hr guy. hopefully he will/should keep his 40+double pace. hopefully he’ll stay healthy. hopefully his throwing arm is in good shape.
February 10th, 2008 at 10:03 am
The Real Neal — February 9, 2008 @ 8:11 pm
Didn’t the Cubs win the division last year with a right field that consisted of Pie, Murton, Floyd, Jones and Ward? Doesn’t that disprove the statement “Matt Murton is not a right fielder, at least not on a team that has any hope of contending.”? He not only played right field for a contending team, he played it for two!
Neal, hardy-har-har! Murton played 41 games in RF in 2007. In 71 chances, he made 4 errors for an ‘outstanding’ .944 fielding average. In case you never played the OF, Neal, somewhere around .975 to .980 is ‘good’. Again, again, and again, if the Cubs played in the AL and needed a DH, or Soriano wasn’t our LF for the next 7 years, Murton would be a worthwhile addition to this team. They don’t, he is, and Hendry might as well do what is best for Murton and the Cubs and trade him to a team that needs him and will return some value. If that’s Roberts or Byrd, so be it.
February 10th, 2008 at 11:12 am
Why would anyone give the Cubs value for a player they don’t need?
February 10th, 2008 at 11:13 am
“a player (the Cubs) don’t need?”
February 10th, 2008 at 11:50 am
WBION………you just made my point. Murton doesn’t have a lot of value and isn’t going to start for the Cubs.
February 10th, 2008 at 11:53 am
“a team that needs him and will return some value.”
That’s my question. Who’s going to return value for a player that the Cubs supposedly have no use for?
In other words, what do you expect me to give you for the right to dispose of your garbage?
February 10th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
The man love for Murton is obvious on this site what I don’t get is why? Whether you look at stats or have seen Murton play - why does this belief that Murton can play right field exist. He is a weak left fielder at best and you want to put him in right? Huh? He doesn’t really have a position - at best Left Field or a poor mans DH.
February 10th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
The Wolf Report is interesting, but an N of 4 tells us absolutely nothing.
And I agree about Murton. The Cubs are in that akward position again where they don’t really want him, but can’t let people know they don’t want him or they won’t get anything for him. If they hang on to him to show other teams that they would rather keep him that get rid of him for nothing it could drive the bids up or it could result in the Cubs having to keep him. In general I think Hendry needs to do a little better at selling high with his young players.
February 10th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
Heard Levine on ESPN 1000 at 10m CST
He said that Hendry wants a RH CF and Brian Roberts. Texas wants more than just Murton for Marlon Byrd. Roberts discussions will center around Cedeno and Gallagher, both of whom are virtual locks to be included. Expect 4 players to go to Baltimore, depending on who gets them Byrd. Also said Payton could be a substitute for Byrd. Also said Marquis may be involved.
Most likely deal is something like Roberts for Cedeno, Gallagher, EPAT, Murton
Also, the most likely minor leaguer to make the team is either Hart or Ascenio, who is throwing 95-98.
February 10th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
thnx for the update Jumbo….
Murton played some RF in the minors and he doesn’t have the major league arm for it, but it’s not really a deal-breaker imo…
I’ve heard it, maybe 5,321 times on this site, that the RF in Wrigley is the toughest in baseball, maybe we should give Murt a few more than 41 games before we say he can’t play it all.
February 10th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
and have I mentioned he has 2 options left lately?
There’s no reason to use him as a throw-in right now when Fuku is coming off elbow surgery, Soriano had 2 leg injuries last year and Pie/Fuld are far less unproven than Murton.
February 10th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
http://www.denverpost.com/ci_8219026
A’s asked for Ethier, LaRoche and a prospect from Dodgers for Blanton.
Go Billy….
February 10th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
Help me out here. There’s been talk for weeks about bringing Brian Roberts into the fold. Forgive me if I’ve missed the discussion, but what specifically does he bring us that is worth four players or that we even need?
February 10th, 2008 at 1:27 pm
…Pie/Fuld are far less unproven than Murton.
I had to decipher this for a few seconds… Do you mean “far less proven”?
February 10th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
“Forgive me if I’ve missed the discussion, but what specifically does he bring us that is worth four players or that we even need?”
He makes the TEAM better. Greater depth, a true OBP lead-off IF w/terrific range, speed, AND forces Fonzie down in the lineup - which is something the majority of us have been clamoring about for a year.
That’s about all, though.
The rumored names as we have heard would not be getting much playing time soon with the parent current club. Unless of course Hendry is dumb enough to give up Marshall AND Gallagher.
Do it.
February 10th, 2008 at 1:34 pm
yeah, sorry brick
February 10th, 2008 at 1:42 pm
Rory:
“The man love for Murton is obvious on this site what I don’t get is why?”
I too am not 100% sure why, but I have few ideas:
1) He is white
2) He is semi-homegrown
3) He started off hot at first when he came up
4) He “plays the game right” and is “gritty”, “scrappy” or whatever the word du Jour is.
I also think the same exact question and answers can be said for Theriot.
February 10th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
Bud:
“what specifically does he bring us that is worth four players or that we even need?”
He upgrades 2B slightly, but unless DeRosa moves to SS after the trade and Roberts does actually bat leadoff and move Alf down, I don’t think may people will think it will be worth the amount given up.
February 10th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
http://forum.orioleshangout.co.....stcount=73
your Orioles “insider” update…
O’s want something like Colvin, Gallagher, Murton, Cedeno for Roberts and Payton. Cubs don’t seem eager to move Colvin.
it’s probably been mentioned before but Gallagher has been on the Kerry Wood diet plan and lost like 20-25 pounds and is hitting mid 90’s pretty regularly.
can’t say I’m keen on trading a 21-year old with a 2.66 ERA in AAA last year with nice peripherals to match (40.2 IP)…
Cubs have asked him to work on his slider this offseason and try to use it more than his curve. (Paraphrasing from my scout.com magazine) that the slider comes out of the same arm slot as his fastball and be harder to pick up than his curve.
February 10th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
still surprised jay payton’s name isnt being thrown around in all this o’s/cubs stuff. he’s just about perfect for what hendry is supposedly looking to fill that OF slot…makes 5m this year, though.
February 10th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
nevermind…i guess it is according to levine…
February 10th, 2008 at 2:20 pm
He makes the TEAM better. Greater depth, a true OBP lead-off IF w/terrific range, speed, AND forces Fonzie down in the lineup - which is something the majority of us have been clamoring about for a year. –The E-Man
He upgrades 2B slightly, but unless DeRosa moves to SS after the trade and Roberts does actually bat leadoff and move Alf down, I don’t think may people will think it will be worth the amount given up. –mannytrillo
can’t say I’m keen on trading a 21-year old (Gallagher) with a 2.66 ERA in AAA last year with nice peripherals to match (40.2 IP)… –Rob G.
_____________
If Roberts coming actually forces Alfonso down in the order without him losing his edge (I’m not sure he believes he can be successful elsewhere in the order.), then I’m more interested.
As far as OBP, I really like DeRosa’s eye. I’m not sure Roberts is an upgrade getting on base. He seems to alternate between 347 and 380 the last few years. He’s better defensively, but does a domino effect bump Theriot and put DeRo at short. Can DeRosa play short every day? as well or better than Theriot?
…and in the end all these questions to give up Gallagher and others. It feels like a big pile of regret headed our way if we let Gallagher go with all the signs pointing up for him for another second baseman.
February 10th, 2008 at 2:41 pm
if we get Roberts, I still think the lineup will be
Soriano
Roberts
Lee
Ramirez
Fuku
Soto
Theriot
Pie/Fuld
probably flip the 7 and 8 spots if you want and a lot would depend on where DeRosa might be playing that day. Putting Roberts at the top give you one of these two in most likelihood…
Roberts
Fuku
Lee
Ramirez
Soriano
Soto
Theriot
Pie/Fuld
or
Roberts
Theriot
Lee
Ramirez
Soriano
Fuku
Soto
Pie/Fuld
February 10th, 2008 at 2:44 pm
Good news, we may have Brian Roberts by Spring training according to Levine whe says the Cubs and Orioles talked on Friday. Wait there is more….
http://chicagocubsonline.com/a.....s21008.php
February 10th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
1) He is white
Jesus, WTF Manny.
Maybe, just maybe, it’s because he’s a disciplined hitter capable of taking a walk that surfaced in an era where that particular skill set wasn’t at all valued by the management (see: Baker, Dusty). That endeared him to people around here a helluva lot more than his skin color. For fucks sake…
February 10th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
anything to get soriano out of the #1 slot is fine by me.
i could care less about his 30+ steals when he’s got 40+ doubles and 30+ homers going to waste.
even aram can go 2nd to home on a stupid double in his walking-moods. not like soriano’s getting his doubles using blazing speed hoping an OF’r mishandles the ball.
February 10th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
fwiw, I have plenty of man-love for Felix Pie and he is definitely not white.
February 10th, 2008 at 2:53 pm
murton’s 50-ish walks a season isnt that impressive.
February 10th, 2008 at 2:59 pm
last I checked, the goal is to score runs for your team, not amass RBI totals for one player.
Just because a player has power doesn’t automatically make him a better candidate for lower in the order. There’s plenty of more factors to consider. Who’s going to be batting in the #5 spot instead (I’m assuming the 5 spot)? Do they K as often? Anyone know why Adam Dunn can barely top 100 RBI’s most season despite batting in the middle of the order? It’s because he doesn’t put the ball in play enough.
Soriano has been below average to average at bringing runners home, no matter where he bats in the order. I’ve shown it before, just look at how many runners on base come up when he’s up and how many he’s brought in. BP keeps the stat (OBI%). He’s been at 16% (about average) or below for the last 4-5 years.
February 10th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
besides the obvious…matt’s a LF’r with sketchy skills there at best…murton’s inconsistancy is killing him.
those 8 homers he hit last year…7 were hit in aug/sept.
he’s got a very wide zone he likes to hit in…unfortunatlely he’s not vlad. he’s got power to both fields, but is still vulnerable to smacking weak stuff outside. for a while you could exploit him in couple years ago but he adjusted to that.
so far he’s adjusted to everything thrown at him…with time.
he’s far from junk, but he’s not much more than a 4th OF working the corners for the cubs. i’ll take it, but i can understand how it’s expendable given the team’s makeup. guy is starting to remind me of lew ford, honestly.
February 10th, 2008 at 3:02 pm
Murton’s a pretty good bet bet to hit .300 most years. He doesn’t strike out a lot, good enough eye (he’ll generally be between 50-70 pts higher than his BA) and has enough power that his BABIP isn’t going to be out of whack.
He’s a good, solid player that should be playing LF for someone.
February 10th, 2008 at 3:04 pm
in order to treat soriano as a guy who hits better in an order i gotta ignore soriano the hitter and i cant.
the guy’s “method” consists of seeing the ball and swinging.
how do you trip soriano up at the plate? you get something he doesnt foul off and Ks or makes an out for himself on. he’s a see-and-swing guy.
i dont see any difference hitting him anywhere in the lineup would change his game or what he gets to hit off of.
that said, hit him 1st, hit him 5th…whatever…glad he’s here, but a guy who hits 30 homers, 40 doubles, and has less RBIs than his extra base hits…damn.
February 10th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
I don’t care if he bats 5th or 1st myself, but it doesn’t help or hurt the team where he bats either (unless Fuku or mystery #5 hiiter is a complete waste of space).
February 10th, 2008 at 3:14 pm
and if you do like Soriano the basestealer and think he’ll have his legs back next year, you’re probably cutting his stolen base totals by half moving him to the middle of the order.
February 10th, 2008 at 6:32 pm
“He’s a good, solid player that should be playing LF for someone.”
Can I put a finer point on it?
He’s a good, solid player that has no place on the Cubs and should be moved.
February 10th, 2008 at 7:40 pm
I know that Right Field at Wrigley is a bigger challenge than most places, but having said that, Cubs fans might be the only group of people I’ve ever seen act like playing Right Field can only be done by the most athletic player on the field. And you’d think after watching Sosa “patrol” right from his worn out patch of sod for the last 5 or so years he was in Chicago, we’d know that a sometimes corner outfielder really is just a corner outfielder.
Yes, having a good arm is a nice plus in RF, and there is a slightly higher degree of difficulty playing RF as opposed to LF, but how many of these prototypical cannon-arm Right Fielders are left in baseball anymore?
February 10th, 2008 at 7:51 pm
Looks like Hendry needs Murton in order to get Roberts, and thus can;t use him to get Byrd.
If the O’s want us to take Payton, then they have to take Marquis, who they need anyway to stabilize their rotation and get them some innings for the next year or two.
February 10th, 2008 at 8:02 pm
Seamhead:
“If the O’s want us to take Payton, then they have to take Marquis, who they need anyway to stabilize their rotation and get them some innings for the next year or two.”
I couldn’t imagine how bad Marquis would be in the AL East. I would not be surprised to see a 6.00+ ERA out of him, sneaking up to 7.00..
February 10th, 2008 at 8:14 pm
He’s a good, solid player that has no place on the Cubs and should be moved.
move him to get something useful and for the appopriate price…sure.
Murton still has 2 options left and players get injured, have bad seasons or move from Japan to the States and see a steep drop in their numbers.
Players also get injured on other teams…
Why anyone wants to trade him just to trade him is beyond me…
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