With that said here are the preliminary winners and losers:

WINNERS

San Fransisco Giants - First thing hat jumps off the page is the number of college players taken compared to the number of high school players in 2007 (although that was a good draft too).

Added some college bats to go along with the high school arms they chose in 2007. Buster Posey will be a fast moving catcher who will be a solid #2 hitter. Connor Gillaspie is a gritty 3B who will hit for average, but little power -  great value at 37. Roger Kieshnick from Texas Tech needs to develop, he is not as polished as Posey and Gillaspie. However, he could be a solid major leaguer. Brandon Crawford, SS, from UCLA projected to be a 1st round pick at the beginning of the season as he has a plus arm and glove at SS. His inability to make contact is holding him back. If nothing else, he could be a good defensive SS. Eric Surkamp is a tall LHP, who has played against great ACC competition.

Kansas City Royals - I do not like the Hosmer over Smoak pick, unless he plays RF. I do not feel he has SO much more upside over Smoak to justify more money and more risk. However, they did draft the best high school hitter in the draft.

The Royals then went on to draft pitchers left and right. If they sign Tim Melville it would go a long way to rebuilding that team.

Tampa Bay Rays - Try to hold back the surprise that they drafted well again.

Got maybe the best overall talent in the draft in Tim Beckham then added a projectable and polished LHP in Kyle Lobstein. Lobstein was in the mix as a top 30 pick for most of the year. Great value at 47.

Also added a dark horse catching prospect in Jacob Jeffries from UC Davis. Needs to add some power but a good contact hitter.

Baltimore Orioles - YES, those Baltimore Orioles.

After what looks to be a good 2007 draft, and the Bedard trade, the Orioles have again added some nice pieces to their system. Brain Matusz is a quick moving LHP who should buzz through class A in a hurry. Needs to refine command of FB. Could see him in the majors in 2009.

They will have to sign Xavier Avery away from playing running back for the University of Georgia. If they do, they get one of the fastest players in the draft. Added another speedy CF in Kyle Hudson.

Milwaukee Brewers - High upside high school playesr. No surprise.

Love their first two picks. Brett Lawrie has as much potential as any high school hitter. Jake Odorizzi was in the mix as one of the best high school arms in the draft.

Their current system allows them to draft high upside players and let them develop as they have help on the way in LoPorta and Gamel.

LOSERS

Houston Astros - If I could ask that front office one thing it would be “in the next 5 years, where do you expect your team to come from”. As in, they do not have many projectable major leaguers in that system. It will be almost all through free agency. In this fay and age, that is a recipe for disaster.

Talk of the draft - in a bad way. Passing up on Smoak for Castro. I would love to know the reason for the Astros burning desire for catchers - they took Max Sapp in 2006 (and has stunk up class A) they rushed JR Towles and have now demoted him. I like Castro more than both of those 2, as he could be a very solid major leaguer, but it is obvious Castro was a signability pick.

Jordan Lyles was not on anyones radar until the 6th or 7th round. Astros take him in the supp. round as a signbility pick, and they have already signed him.

I like the Ross Seaton pick alot. They need to sign him though. Taking him at 109 does not strike me as a real attempt to sign him. He is going to want more than 109 money.

Chicago Cubs - draft lacks overall upside

How does Andrew Casher make sense for them? They already have a great bull pen. I assume they want to add to it come August. This is a front office who overpaid for Scott Eyre and Bob Howry, so maybe they wanted to develop their own piece of the pen. I understand that they have a very good team this year and maybe want to cement their chances of winning now.

Ryan Flaherty - seems like an overdraft to me. Could be an average big leaguer down the road. They drafted similar college SS in Ryan Theriot and Mike Fontenot, however. Pick does not have much upside.

Chris Carpenter - THERE is an upside pick - however past arm injuries and lack of results are the risk.

Philadelphia Phillies - They have maybe ONE above average major leaguer in that system right now in Carlos Carrasco. What do they do? Draft guys who have a less than 10% chance of getting out of A ball and are about 5 years away.

They passed on college pitching and bull pen help to draft Anthony Hewitt, Zach Collier, and Anthony Goose. I like drafting 1 of those guys, or 2 of them. But all 3 could wind up making this draft a wash for them.

I really would have liked it if they drafted Christian Freidrich over Hewitt. They would have added a polished middle of the rotation arm to go with the upside of the other 2 high school players. Now they are stuck with all upside and no one who will be developed in a few years. With the continual pressure to win every year in Philly, Pat Gillick maybe not be around to find out how his picks panned out.

I KNOW the whole “draft best player” theory. However, you do not do that the entire draft or you are left with all upside guys and too many busts. At some point down the road your team will need to pluck someone from their system and you did not add enough higher probability picks.

Brave’s scouting director Roy Clark has made a career of  drafting Georgia HS players - every year they take player from the state, and some of their best prospects have come from the state.

But check out all the players from Georgia taken in the first 60 picks.

Tim Beckham

Gordon Beckham

Josh Fields

Ethan Martin

Xavier Avery

Josepth Austin

6 guys taken in the first 60 picks from the state of Geogria. The East Cobb region, just north of Atlanta is so rich with talent it is almost unbelievable.

Miss - Posey to the Giants. They needed more upside with that pick

Miss - Yonder Alonso to the Reds. WHY!??

Home run - Aaron Crow to the Nationals..most dominating pitching drops to #9

Strikeout - Astros  go with ANOTHER catcher (Jason Castro) over Smoak. The missed with Max Sapp in 2006.
Hit - Mets get two good college hitters - Ike Davis and Reese Havens in the 1st round

Miss - Everyone letting Shooter Hunt drop to  31

Hit - Brewers get two very good high school players in Brett Lawrie and Jake Ordirizzi

Hit - Braves take best HS lefty in the draft, Brett DeVall

Miss - San Diego going with Allan Dykstra over the multitude of pitchers available

Miss - Phillies going with huge upsides in Hewitt  and Collier - miss because they have next to NOTHING on the horizon in that system. Both of these guys are 4+ years away.

Aaron Crow could drop to the Nationals

Yonder Alonso wants a big league contract around $8 million (could mean he is trying to scare some teams off)

Casey Kelley wants a ton of money (usually this means he has a deal in place with a team)

The Mariner’s doctors are optimistic about Tanner Scheppers

I will set up a live chat application on the site tomorrow right at 2 PM..so feel free to jump in. It will be a free way to chat with people as the draft rolls along!

I will say I am confident in the top 15 - not that they will go in that order, but that those will be the top 15 players taken. After that, anything could happen because some teams fall in love with the high upside high school guys - while some like the college players.

This is more of a way to discuss the draft. If you comment do not say “thats not who so and so are drafting” if you have a different opinion, awesome - but back it up with some type of educated reasoning!

Here we go….

1) Rays - Buster Posey - Fills a need + could be an all star. Lacks the upside of what most like with a #1 pick. TB Spotlight here.

2) Pirates - Pedro Alvarez - They CAN’T screw this up. Can they?

3) Royals - Eric Hosmer - KC loves Hosmer. If price it too much, look for T. Beckham or Justin Smoak.

4) Orioles - Tim Beckham - If Beckham is gone, the Orioles have a tough decision between Smoak, and Matusz. Spotlight here.

5) Giants - Justin Smoak - they will pass on Matusz as they are focused on a polished impact bat. If Smoak and T. Beckham are gone, it will be interesting to see who they turn to to out of the Hosmer, Posey, G. Beckham, Alonso, and Wallace group.

6) Marlins - Yonder Alonso - Marlins have been rumored to be on Skipoworth and Alonso. Still no pitcher taken.

7) Reds - Aaron Crow - They will have to decide which pitcher they want if this happens. Could really have something with their pitching staff. Soon. Spotlight here.

8) White Sox - Gordon Beckham - Obvious pick if he is there.

9) Nationals - Kyle Skipworth - Typical Bowden pick, high upside. Spotlight here.

10) Astros - Shooter Hunt - I do not think they will spend the money on Matusz - or anyone.

11) Rangers - Brian Matusz -If this happens, we might hear the Ranger’s brass rejoicing all the way from Orlando.

12) A’s - Brett Wallace - I have to believe the A’s would love for Wallace to get to them.

13) Cardinals - Tim Melville - Tough decision between Melville and Freidrich

14) Minnesota - Chrisitan Freidrich - not a typical Minn. pick

15) Dodgers - Aaron Hicks

16) Brewers - Ethan Martin- if Dodgers take Martin, Brewers take Hicks

17) Toronto - Ike Davis

18) Mets - Jason Castro - Mets are rumored to want a catcher. He could still be there at 22. If Ike Davis is available, they might hope for Castro at 22.

19) Cubs - Zack Collier

20) Mariners - Brett Lawrie - Mariners showed they do not mind Canadians last year with Phillippe Aumont. Lawrie has outstanding hitting potential..does not have a position.

21) Tigers - Josh Fields - Need the help in the pen. Now.

22) Mets - Andrew Cashner - Another relief pitcher? Again? Do not be shocked.

23) Padres - Lance Lynn - Polished college pitcher increasing his stock.

24) Phillies - Gerrit Cole - Cole could drop this far due to immaturity, contract, and mechanical questions - but the arm is real, and too good to pass up at 24.

25) Rockies - Jake Oridizzi - Would love to see Davis fall to them.

26) Arizona - Casey Kelly - They have been able to develop high school players in the past, and have not shied away from them. May have the money to lure Kelly away from UT football.

27) Twins - Connor Gillaspie - Perfect fit..not too expensive, fills a need.

28) Yankees - Anthony Hewitt - Yankees showed last year that they are not afraid to go with pure upside with Andrew Brackman.

29) Cleveland - Jemile Weeks - Taking a college player - Weeks is a solid one at an up the middle position.

30) Boston -Reese Havens - could be gone by then. Rumor is they could try him at catcher.

We all know 1 thing - something crazy will happen. Someone will drop and we will all be surprised (like Heyward did last year). And some high school kid could come out of nowhere (maybe Daniel Schlereth)

1) Pedro Alvarez/ Vanderbilt

Best mixture of talent, polish, and track record in the draft. Wanting a huge deal and Boras is his agent.
If Brett Wallace was drafted as a 3B - he would be #2 on the list

2) Connor Gillaspie/ Wichita State

Has hit at every level, including the Cape Cod League. Lack of Power is concerning. True gamer and great make up.

3) James Darnell/ South Carolina

Pure power pick -not great on defense, not great running, and not great BA wise. Reminds me of Troy Glaus in that regard.

4) Lonnie Chisenthall/ Junior College

One of the South Carolina blue chip recruits that was kicked off the team before the start of the season. Makeup problems seem to have subsided.

5) Logan Forsythe/ Arkansas

Played well for Team USA - had a leg injury. Probably a 4th - 6th round pick.

Jim Bowden also made good trades for Willy Pena and especially for Lastings Milledge. They have plenty of back of the rotation SP as well - John Lannan and Jason Bergmann come to mind.

The Nationals should focus on adding some polish and stability in this draft. Drafting too many upside players leaves teams with some above average players but not enough regulars to have a stable team. Conversely, teams who draft low risk players usually end up with 4th outfielders and 5th starters.

There needs to be a mix, and I think a great pick for them this year would be Brett Wallace or Yonder Alonso. They addressed a lack of pitching in last years draft, and adding a safe bet in 1B would be a wise decision. They are not a low upside pick either - many regard them as the best two hitters in the draft. As a bonus they fill a need at 3B.

The Nationals have been rumored to be on Kyle Skipworth, which would be a solid pick as well - but it looks like the Marlins could grab him at 6.  However, it does not matter what I would do. The mock draft of how I think things will shake out will be up early next week.

I feel as though we could look back at these drafts and think they made solid picks at the time, but some of these upside hitters could flop just easily. Wallace and Alonso will not flop.

We always hear teams should not draft on need, but I think this year the Rays are the anomaly in that their system is so loaded they can afford to fill a need.

They have narrowed down their 1.1 pick to Tim Beckham or Buster Posey. Critics of Posey say he lacks the upside for a 1.1 pick. Critics of Beckham say that he is unproven and probably will not develop over 20 HR power (he is not Hanley Ramirez).

I think if the Rays have a chance to fill a need PLUS draft a potential all star catcher - they should. Posey will move quickly, and as we have seen, the time to win for the Rays in over the next 5 years.

Also, the strength of their team is pitching. They are banking their franchise on their arms. Why not add a great leader at catcher, who is going to help those arms out and play good defense? Plus he would be a great #2 hitter to me. He could begin in high A after being drafted, catch Price and Hellickson, then move up with them at the end of this year and get some time working with Wade Davis and Jake McGee (assuming they arent in the majors in August or September).

There have also been question flying around “should the Rays trade for a veteran bat”. The answer is no, because a veteran bat is not going to give them the upside they are trading away when you factor in the cost efficiency.

The only holes they really need to fill on their roster right now is a RF and maybe DH. If they could get a guy like Jason Bay then that would be something maybe they could think about as long as a team dosen’t want more than 1 guy out of the Davis, Mcgee, Brignac, and Hellickson group - Price should be untouchable. And Brignac darn close to it because he is a SS.

One trade that I DO think makes sense is consider dealing away Mcgee. To me, he seems destined for the bull pen. Why not pick up the phone and ask Milwaukee what they want for Laporta? They have nowhere to put him and the Rays could DH him this year. However, we NEVER see top prospects traded 1-1 (because most teams overvalue their own top prospects).

If the Rays are in first at the All Star break they should at least have an internal discussion about what they could get for Mcgee, Hellickson, or Davis - provided they can get back a talented player who is cost effective.

I