MVN - Most Valuable Network

The Waiver Priority: Sparse Free Agent Pitching

My parents are on vacation. Party!

Yea, that’s right; I’m living with my parents again. I never thought I’d move back in, but I got a great summer job in my hometown of Syracuse, NY, and, for a few months, I just couldn’t pass up rent-free living and home-cooked meals.

I’m at a new address, but this is the same venerable Waiver Priority.

Slightly more than a quarter of the way through the season, free agent starting pitching has gotten pretty thin. Owners have already scooped up most of the surprise performers. So whom do you turn to now if you drafted what you thought would be an unbeatable rotation of Peavy, CC, Smoltz and Chris Young?

Aaron Laffey, Cleveland Indians – For Laffey, tonight’s start against the White Sox was atrocious. He gave up two earned runs! Hang your head Aaron Laffey. After going the entire month of May without surrendering an earned run, expectations are high for the 23 year old lefty. His ERA increased to a still-scant 1.60, and he currently sports a 20/6 K/BB ratio in 33.2 innings. While he won’t help your fantasy team much in the strikeout category, (he averaged only 6.42 K/9 in the minors and has a 4.62 K/9 mark in the majors), he’s a WHIP specialist who’s scorching hot right now. Laffey’s .214 BABIPA says he can’t keep up this pace for long. But get him in your lineup while the gettin’s good.

Andrew Miller, Florida Marlins – Here’s another 23 year old lefty for you. Miller’s numbers look horrendous. Before his start this evening, he had a 6.18 ERA with a 1.79 WHIP. But he’s shown flashes of brilliance in his last few turns and capped it off with a 7 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K performance today against early season juggernaut Arizona. Miller’s downfall has been his propensity to give up hits (12.16 per 9 in ‘08). He currently sports a .390 BABIPA, so his WHIP will come down. There’s quite a bit of upside here, but Miller will be frustratingly inconsistent. If you’ve got the patience, now is a good time to jump on board.

Darrell Rasner, New York Yankees – Overshadowed by first-round phenoms Philip Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Ian Kennedy, Rasner has excelled since injuries and ineffectiveness in the Yankees’ rotation necessitated his call up. In the last two and a half weeks, Rasner has vaulted himself into the spotlight with three solid starts and an impressive 0.84 WHIP. But the Yankees have already begun stretching out Joba in preparation for his move to the rotation. Hank Steinbrenner seems to have gotten his way. Though this doesn’t bode well for Rasner staying in New York for the rest of the season, he’s a solid short term fantasy fill-in.

Tim Redding, Washington Nationals – Upstate NY, represent. A Rochester native, Redding has been lights out in his past two starts (12.1 IP, 9 H, 1 ER) against top NL teams in the Phillies and Mets. He’ll need to keep that up, as he’ll face two more tough offenses, the Brewers and Diamondbacks, in his next two turns through the rotation. But Redding’s schedule gets quite a bit softer in June with probable starts against St. Louis, Pittsburgh, and Seattle. Though his 3.47 BB/9 isn’t too impressive, and his 6.95 H/9 will come up, he is worth a pick up in deep mixed leagues. Redding is a solid fantasy innings eater, whom I’d rather own than struggling pitchers with more prominent names like Jeremy Bonderman and Jeff Francis.

Catching Up With Your Callipygian Selves

I’m still rolling, baby. Somehow managed to pass my qualifying exam, and my well-shaped ass is still in school. Can I say ass? Ass.

So, word of the day: callipygian. “Callipygian” is an adjective, meaning “having a well-shaped buttocks” (Oxford American Dictionary). How could that one have snuck by us, Professor?

This just in: GTA IV is a ridiculously good game. You freaks probably pre-ordered it and have beaten it already. My nephew did - beat it in the first week. Anyway, it’s tons of fun. Get it if you don’t have it yet. But you knew that already.

Callipygian Prince Fielder is struggling, although he did show some signs of life this weekend (three doubles, one home run). The gig is up, Prince. Everyone is talking about it. Drop the Fakin’ Bacon and get your well-shaped buttocks to a Popeye’s. Seriously, though - what is up with Fielder? Obviously it’s a slow start, and we have to expect Prince to turn things around. Sifting through the numbers, however, I found that Prince’s HR/FB rate is particularly low - 10.9%, to be exact, down from last year’s 23.9%. His BABIP is right in line with 2007 (’08: .282; ‘07, .286), so the “unlucky” argument isn’t applicable. His eye is intact (28/25 K/BB). To put it simply, Fielder just isn’t driving the ball with 2007’s authority. Could Fielder have had a career year at the age of 23? It seems unlikely, but the stark drop off in HR/FB ratio (along with peripherals otherwise intact) is enough to raise eyebrows.

The St. Louis Cardinals called up Chris Perez last week after putting Jason Isringhausen on the DL. While it is impossible to tell what the Cardinals want to do with Isringhausen and their closer situation, it is difficult to ignore the implications of the Cardinals’ usage of Perez. On May 16th, in his first outing, Perez pitched a scoreless seventh. In his second outing, Perez pitched a scoreless top of the ninth inning in a 4-4 tie, going on to get the win. Finally, last night Perez pitched a scoreless bottom of the eighth when the Cardinals were losing 2-3. Perez is the Cardinals’ number two prospect, according to the 2008 Baseball America Prospect Handbook. The Handbook has the following to say about Perez:

Perez has the best fastball in the system, rifling it in consistently at the mid-90s with natural sink. Yet his best pitch may be an 85-87 mph slider with sudden bite that he’s willing to throw in any count. The combination made him nearly unhittable, as he held righthanders to a .115 average and lefties to a .151 mark [in 2007]. He has the guts for the closer role.

Perez was a closer for the University of Miami, and the Cardinals have been grooming Perez to close since they drafted him in 2006. If Isringhausen cannot come back, or if he does come back and is ineffective, Perez is the long-term solution for the Cardinals at closer. The Cardinals were planning on making the switch in 2009, but we may very well see Perez closing games within the next few weeks. If Perez can keep his walks down, he could be the next Brad Lidge.

The Waiver Priority

High over the Rockies, a plane carrying four Seamless writers experienced engine trouble. The pilot struggled to maintain control as our executive jet lurched and shuddered. He was forced to put us down on a mountain lake, still frozen from winter. That was May 6^th. Since then, the Seamless Crew has hunted moose, slept in caves, and fought grizzlies while living with a pack of gray wolves. It’s been a long hard journey out of the mountains, but we made it.

There has been some closer craziness since last week. Jason Isringhausen and Eric Gagne have each endured brief hiatuses.

Ryan Franklin will be the Cardinals first option to close games with Izzy headed for the minors or the DL. Is this an extended “mental break”, or is there something else going on? A barking hip perhaps? He says he’s healthy, but after his explosion on Thursday, Izzy will get a bit more time off. Franklin is only owned 10.5% of fantasy leagues.

If you own Gagne, Guillermo Mota, Solomon Torres, or Brian Shouse, be prepared for ugliness. Wednesday night, Mota blew a save by giving up three earned runs on two hits and a walk. Unless you’re desperate for saves, I’d cut ties with everyone in the Brewers’ bullpen except for Gagne. None of their other ninth inning options figures to take the job and run with it. So, the Brewers will continue to turn to Gagne and pray.

A few other guys to keep your eye on if you’re speculating on saves:

Scott Downs quietly has five saves this year. While BJ Ryan has looked solid early in the season, he’s still only twelve months removed from Tommy John surgery. Downs has supplanted Jeremy Accardo as next-in-line for saves in Toronto.

Eddie Guardado picked up a save on Tuesday and would likely get first crack at the closer’s role should CJ Wilson falter.

Masa Kobayashi recorded a four out save on Tuesday and closed out Thursday’s game after Rafael Betancourt gave up two hits and a walk while getting only one out in the ninth inning. Joe Borowski will close games for Cleveland upon his return from the DL, but I’m skeptical he’ll finish the year in that role. Betancourt has proven he’s a great setup man but can’t seem to handle the pressure of being a closer. That leaves Kobayashi and his tidy 1.93 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.

Let’s go around the horn and check out a potential free agent at each position (% owned in a standard Foxsports.com league):

Chris Iannetta, C Colorado Rockies, 6.4% - I was a big Iannetta fan going into the ’07 season, but he couldn’t hold his own in the majors. Iannetta is a career .303/.409/.509 minor league hitter who has taken advantage of his recent playing time, going 10-for-27 with 2 home runs and nine RBIs since April 29^th. Though Yorvit Torrealba will continue to see the majority of games behind the plate for Colorado in the near future, keep your eye on Iannetta. He could be a valuable second half backstop.

Joey Votto, 1B/OF Cincinnati Reds, 37.1% - Votto’s ownership has risen 15.3% in the past week. A three home run game will do that for a guy. Dusty Baker got him in the Reds lineup early this season, and Votto has proven worthy with an .887 OPS.

Kaz Matsui, 2B Houston Astros, 14.5% - Back from injury, Matsui has increased his walk rate to 1.2 per nine innings this year. He’s swiped 8 bags and scored 22 runs with a .283 average in 99 at bats. Matsui should be owned in all but the shallowest mixed leagues.

Scott Rolen, 3B Toronto Blue Jays, 26.6% - With Vernon Wells on the shelf, Rolen has settled in to the clean up spot in Toronto’s lineup. He missed time at the beginning of the year due to a broken middle finger. But Rolen is on pace for a line similar to the one he posted in ’06 for the Cardinals - .296/.369/.518.

Stephen Drew, SS Arizona Diamondbacks, 30.2% - Drew has thrived hitting second for the Diamondbacks. He’s scored 7 runs in 33 at bats with a .333 average and a .609 slugging percentage from that spot in the lineup. Also, his ownership has risen 10.6% in the past week. Drew was recently quoted as saying, “I hit the ball hard last year, but it was right at people.” This year, his BABIP has risen 23 points, and Drew found his power stroke as evident by his .239 ISO.

Milton Bradley, OF Texas Rangers, 16.9% - Last week, the same man who tore his ACL arguing with an umpire in ‘07 actually held back Rangers’ catcher Gerald Laird during a brawl ignited by a high - but not so inside - pitch to Richie Sexson. In addition to his increased restraint, Bradley is hitting well this year and has a .89 BB/K ratio. If you don’t expect 500 at bats for him on your fantasy team, you won’t be disappointed.

Jeremy Hermida, OF Florida Marlins, 11.2% - His ownership level shocked me. I got caught up in the Hermida hype the past couple of seasons. This year, he’s posted a respectable .298/.348/.466 line and cemented himself in the two-hole, hitting in front of Hanley Ramirez in Florida. Go check out his post-break numbers from last year, highlighted by a .340 AVG and 10 HR in 256 at bats, and then go pick him up.

Carlos Gomez, OF Minnesota Twins, 38.8% - Gomez will have trouble scoring more than 80 runs with a .301 OBP. And while he currently leads the American League with 16 steals, his inability to take a walk will limit his stolen base potential too. However, if you’re looking to make up ground in steals, there are few who can do that as quickly as Gomez.

Since You’ve Been Gone

(Headline credit: Kelly Clarkson)

You’ll be happy — or disheartened, as it may be — to learn that I am finished with this little experiment called college. Best of all: I wasn’t even forcibly asked to leave. Through some luck of the draw, the University of Missouri has called upon me to graduate, after a measly four years. And they’re giving me a diploma as a parting gift.

I’m not leaving college with a bang, but with a slow, pathetic whimper, having just bombed my final in Elementary Piano, an elective I took specifically so I could take tests that I would not bomb. I was asked to perform five different songs, of which I could play all of zero effectively, including a rendition of “Hey Jude” that probably left Mr. Lennon turning in his urn.

So I’ve turned to Seamless Baseball to ease me out of the funk. It’s been awhile.

What’s happened since I’ve been gone? Lots of things. For one, Lance Berkman is currently on pace for 173 runs, 64 doubles, 56 homers, 161 RBI, 24 steals and a .388 batting average.

Other notable things:
— Rangers outfielder David Murphy currently leads the AL in doubles, with 15. He’s on pace for 58.

— Jacoby Ellsbury is the second coming of Grady Sizemore. He’s leading the AL in runs (31) despite collecting only 117 at-bats, 54 less than the next highest on that list, Carl Crawford. He’s also stolen 15 bases and never been caught.

— Carlos Quentin currently leads the AL in homers, with 10, and all things considered, his .401 OBP looks semi-legit. He’s on pace for 42 homers and 144 RBI. To think, all it cost the White Sox was this guy.

— Can we cut all this talk about Daniel Cabrera finally maturing? Sure, he’s 4-1, but he’s pitching exactly like he always has, with slightly better and luckier results. He’s still walking a ton of batters (3.58/9) and striking out less (5.52/9). The only real thing that has changed is his super-lucky BABIP, which currently sits at .240. Combine that with an 80% strand rate, and you’ll see why Cabrera’s ERA is his career low, and why it’s due for a huge spike in the upcoming months.

— This week’s proof that batting average is devilishly overrated: Nick Johnson is currently hitting .220 but is fifth in baseball in Win Probability Added. He’s walking in nearly one-in-four plate appearances.

— Jim Edmonds? Really?

So, be honest: did you miss me?

The Closer Continuum: Slovenly Eric Gagne, Calling Myself Out

First of all, I need to call myself out: last week, during a discussion of Gary Sheffield as a buy-low candidate, I claimed that “Jim Leyland will continue to insert him in the three-hole until he can’t play.” One week later, the Detroit Tigers lineup for tonight reads as follows:

1. Curtis Granderson, OF
2. Placido Polanco, 2B
3. Carlos Guillen, 3B
4. Magglio Ordonez, DH
5. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
6. Gary Sheffield, LF
7. Matt Joyce, RF
8. Edgar Renteria, SS
9. Ivan Rodriguez, C

I still see Sheffield as a buy-low, and you might be able to buy even lower now. The aforementioned prospect of trading Mark Reynolds for Sheffield becomes increasingly appealing as Reynolds’ batting average edges closer to the Mendoza Line.

This lineup change is obviously very good news for Carlos Guillen owners. Will it stick? Hard to tell, although if the Tigers start winning ballgames, it very well could.

As for closers, have you watched Eric Gagne pitch lately? Not only has he been struggling with his performance, he has been struggling with the fit of his uniform. It has bordered on the ridiculous, with his shirt untucked, shoes untied, pants three or four sizes too large - not to mention his grotesque fire hazard of a beard, ridiculous hair spilling out of his hat, and general air of slovenliness.

Fantasy owners don’t care how players look, though, as long as they’re playing well. Gagne has not been playing very well. He’s blown 5 of 14 saves. His shaggy look has become increasingly annoying. As I think I’ve mentioned here before, though, and as many other pundits have said, the Brewers are paying Mr. Gagne more money than you and I will probably ever see in our lifetime - a cool 10 million U.S. dollars. He’ll get a few more chances. Don’t forget, too - Gagne was atrocious in a setup role for the Red Sox last year, and Ned Yost and friends know this. Take him out of the ninth, and you have to put him somewhere else. What are you going to do, trade him and his eight figure salary? No. Demote him? Obviously not. So I really think that the Brewers will just keep trotting him out there until he blows three or four in a row. Does it make sense to add Guillermo Mota or Salomon Torres? Sure, if you’ve got the room. I just don’t see a change happening yet.

Brandon Lyon continues to defy his own suckiness by, well, not sucking. Since his last blown save, Lyon has converted eight saves in a row, and he now has a 2.40 ERA and 0.93 WHIP for the season. Not too many of us were calling for those numbers in early April. Can Lyon keep this up? Actually, as strange as it feels to say it, I think he can. Will he end with a WHIP below 1.00? No. But if you look at Lyon’s last two seasons, he hasn’t been that bad:

2006: 3.89 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
2007: 2.68 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

An ERA around 3.50 and a WHIP around 1.30 is certainly doable for Lyon. He could end up with a very underrated 35 saves. Then again, if he blows up, Mr. Max Scherzer will be lurking.

The rankings:

1. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (Hideki Okajima)
2. Joe Nathan, MIN (Pat Neshek) (2)
3. Mariano Rivera, NYY (Joba Chamberlain) (4)
4. Takashi Saito, LAD (Jonathan Broxton) (3)
5. Billy Wagner, NYM (P. Feliciano, D. Sanchez, A.Heilman) (5)

6. Joakim Soria, KAN (Joel Peralta, Leo Nunez) (8)
7. Francisco Rodriguez, LAA (Scot Shields, Justin Speier) (7)
8. Huston Street, OAK (Keith Foulke, Alan Embree, Santiago Casilla) (9)
9. J.J. Putz (B. Morrow, M. Lowe) (NA)
10. Bobby Jenks, CHW (Octavio Dotel, Scott Linebrink) (6)
11. Francisco Cordero, CIN (David Weathers) (10)
12. Jose Valverde, HOU (Doug Brocail) (12)
13. Brad Lidge, PHI (Tom Gordon) (17)
14. Trevor Hoffman, SDG (Heath Bell) (11)
15. Matt Capps, PIT (Damaso Marte) (14)

16. B.J. Ryan, TOR (Scott Downs, Jesse Carlson) (23)
17. Jason Isringhausen, STL (Ryan Franklin) (13)
18. Brian Fuentes, COL (Taylor Buchholz) (NA)
19. Troy Percival, TAM (Dan Wheeler, Al Reyes [DL]) (21)
20. Kerry Wood, CHC (Carlos Marmol, Bobby Howry) (16)
21. Kevin Gregg, FLA (Matt Lindstrom) (20)
22. Brandon Lyon, ARI (Tony Pena, Chad Qualls) (27)
23. Todd Jones, DET (Aquilino Lopez, Clay Rapada) (24)

24. Brian Wilson, SNF (Tyler Walker, Merkin Valdez) (22)
25. C.J. Wilson, TEX (Eddie Guardado, Joaquin Benoit) (26)
26. George Sherrill, BAL (Jamie Walker, Dennis Sarfate) (25)
27. Jon Rauch, WAS (Luis Ayala) (29)
28. Eric Gagne, MIL (Guillermo Mota, Salomon Torres) (19)
29. Rafael Betancourt, CLE (Masahide Kobayashi, Joe Borowski [DL]) (18)
30. Manny Acosta, ATL (J. Smoltz, R. Soriano [DL], M. Gonzalez [DL]) (28)

The Waiver Priority: Is Scherzer Worth a #1?

Max Scherzer comes off waivers in Yahoo leagues tomorrow. His numbers with the AAA Tucson Sidewinders this year were marvelous – 23 IP, 38 K, 3 BB, 1.17 ERA. Scherzer continued his dominance in the majors on Tuesday night as he went four and a third perfect innings with seven strikeouts against Houston. Yesterday, he was promoted to the Diamondbacks’ starting rotation. Scherzer will replace Edgar Gonzalez as the team’s fifth starter. He’ll get his first start against the Phillies next Monday.

There’s no doubt he’s worth a pick up. But should you use a number one waiver priority on Scherzer?

I’ve vacillated on this a few times since hearing of Scherzer’s call up on Sunday afternoon. When I first saw the news on Rotoworld, I immediately thought about picking him up in the only league where I could claim him with a place-holder rather than waiting for him to clear waivers. I balked. All I had to do was drop Chad Qualls, Tony Pena, or Griffey Jr., but I couldn’t bring myself to do it.

I was a bit jaded by all of the Johnny Cueto love earlier this year. Both are going to be great pitchers. But I refuse to put too much stock in a couple starts. Young pitchers usually take a while to get acclimated to major league hitting. Cueto’s taking some shots now (though his 33/6 K/BB is still impressive), and Scherzer will endure the same.

Scherzer is worth a number one waiver priority because he’s getting a chance to prove himself in the rotation. He’s on a tear right now, and if he puts up great numbers in his first few starts, he could stick for a little while. However, the Diamondbacks say that Doug Davis will get his spot back when he returns from surgery for thyroid cancer later this month. Also, Scherzer only pitched 103 innings last year, so the team won’t push him.

The Joba comparison has been thrown around a lot. It seems apt. I think Scherzer will come out of the pen for most of the year. But even as a reliever, he’s got the talent to bolster your fantasy team’s ratios and strikeouts.

If he does retain a spot in the starting rotation, Scherzer’s innings will be limited. In that case, I think his ceiling is Jered Weaver’s 2006 – 123 IP, 105 K, 1.03 WHIP, 2.56 ERA. Though bumps are more likely, the chance that he continues to dominate is worth the relatively cheap gamble of a using a number one waiver priority on Scherzer.

Stock Watch: Gary Sheffield and Nate McLouth

Puddles and umbrellas in New Haven. I think Jim cursed the sun away.

My oral exam for admittance to Ph.D. candidacy is in two weeks - on my birthday, oddly enough. May 12, from 2-4 PM. If you’re conscious during those two hours, I ask that you send me all of the positive vibes you’ve got. There is a legitimate anxiety factor here.

To escape, of course, I have fantasy baseball. Last time I was on a plane with my girlfriend, we were reading through the in-flight safety instruction manual, and it included “emotional support animal” as an item that could be taken on board. If my iguana makes me feel better about myself, can he come along for the flight? Fantasy baseball is my emotional support animal.

It’s probably too late to buy low on Curtis Granderson and Magglio Ordonez, but Gary Sheffield remains an intriguing Detroit Tiger to consider in a trade offer. His shoulder is a concern, but that’s part of the reason why you can get him on the cheap. Jim Leyland will continue to insert him in the three-hole until he can’t play, and if you can get him for Mark Reynolds (last 18 AB: 12 K, 0 BB), I’d seriously consider it. Don’t forget that Sheffield got off to a very slow start last year, too (April 2007: .200 BA, .675 OPS) - and don’t forget what he did when he got his timing back and the weather warmed up a bit (May 2007, 109 AB: 24 R, 10 HR, 22 RBI, 3 SB, .321 BA).

Until this past weekend, I was beginning to think Nate McLouth was a sell high candidate. Now, after McLouth hit three home runs over Saturday and Sunday, I’m beginning to think that he’s becoming a hold. Anytime a player can negotiate a slump and bounce back like McClouth did convinces me that he has the skill set to sustain this type of production over an entire season. Strangely enough, I might even say McLouth is a buy low right now, as owners might be looking to cut bait after a month of hot production. Expect a drop off, but I’m thinking .290/100/25/80/25. Note the 13/13 K/BB ratio and 10 doubles in April.

It appears that my call (and the call of many others) to buy low on C.C. Sabathia was the right one. You might still be able to get him at a bit of a discount. I’d go for it.

Ryan Howard is an obvious buy low, as he is a notorious slow starter: .777 career OPS in April, .973 and up from May on.

Don’t forget to keep tabs on your league standings. Make a note of all of the category standings on April 30th, on May 15th, and so on. Track your position in the standings and know if you are gaining or losing ground, and if your opponents are gaining or losing ground in each category. Use the information to plan trade offers and project performance. I like to keep it all in a spreadsheet, and, if you use standing gains points (SGP), you can begin to see them solidify as the year progresses.