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Poll: All Aboard the Cueto Bandwagon? Not So Fast…

I logged in tonight to write a little about Tim Dierkes’ reaction to Johnny Cueto’s impressive major-league debut only to find that Derek had beaten me to the punch. My argument takes a different turn, though, so I’ll make it anyway.

If you haven’t already read Tim’s post (and the corresponding comments) regarding Cueto, I urge you to do so.

As a summary; first, this happened:

and then Tim wrote:

Cueto’s available in Yahoo leagues today, and many are wondering whether to use a high waiver claim on him. The answer is yes. Don’t hold out for a question mark like Clayton Kershaw or Jay Bruce. Cueto has the talent and opportunity, right now.

So far, I’m right there with you.

But finally, Tim said that he’d drop Rich Harden in favor of Cueto. Derek went so far as to say he’d drop anyone worse than Ted Lilly; in Seamless’ draft kit, that group includes pitchers like Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez and Joba Chamberlain.

It’s at this point that I respectfully (and vehemently) disagree. Why?

• Arms like Harden, Hudson, Lowe, Perez and Chamberlain all have significant fantasy value. In a standard 12-team league, they were drafted between the 13th and 17th rounds. And then, this week they went out and pitched very well. If nothing else, you should attempt to clear a roster spot by packaging Harden with Miguel Tejada in a deal for Carlos Guillen—or Perez with Nick Swisher for Corey Hart. Don’t put good talent back on the wire unnecessarily.
• What has Cueto proven to this point? He has seven innings of major-league experience in which he shut down a lineup featuring Chris Young, Chris Burke, Orlando Hudson, Eric Byrnes, Stephen Drew, Mark Reynolds, Justin Upton and Robby Hammock. That isn’t exactly Arizona’s “A” team; it certainly wasn’t the Milwaukee Brewers or Chicago Cubs. Even the talented Diamondbacks are still underdeveloped.
• Cueto has only 83 innings of minor-league experience at Double-A or above. I’m not saying pitchers can’t make a fast transition into professional baseball; I’m only pointing out that the potential exists for rookie mistakes.
• His manager is one Dusty Baker. Remember the Joba rules? Ain’t happenin’ here.

Now, I’m not trying to come off as anti-Cueto: I just don’t want you to drop a legitimate fantasy contributor to make a risky addition.

Look at it this way, using projections from Rotoworld:

Harden: 119 IP, 8 W, 112 K, 3.25 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, $9 5×5 value
Hudson: 216 IP, 16 W, 131 K, 3.50 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, $16 5×5 value
Cueto: 159 IP, 10 W, 133 K, 3.97 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, $5 5×5 value

I’m viewing Harden for Cueto as at best a sideways move, at worst a step backwards. As Edwin wrote in his Opening Day stock watch column, it’s time to sell high on Rich Harden—not to cut bait entirely. Find a way to squeeze Cueto onto your roster, but be sure to make a sound economic decision.

As an aside, a related poll question:

How do you think Johnny Cueto will perform in comparison to his Rotoworld projections?

As always, vote in the poll embedded in the right sidebar. Feel free to leave comments with your reasoning on this post.

This entry was posted on Thursday, April 3rd, 2008 at 11:55 pm and is filed under Johnny Cueto. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.