MVN - Most Valuable Network

The Fred Lewis Dilemma

It’s the bottom of the 9th inning. The Giants are down, and in need of a hit. Lefty Brian Fuentes of the Rockies is on the mound. Fred Lewis, the Giants’ best hitter this season is due up, and throngs of fans rejoice throughout San Francisco. To much fanfare, Lewis strides up to home plate, ready to win the game, when suddenly, much to the chagrin of every living being, he’s called back by the manager, Bruce Bochy. With the game on the line, the best hitter on the Giants is called back, and Dan “Righty” Ortmeier is sent up to pinch hit.

Bochy avoided a near disaster with this pinch-hit move. By not allowing the lefty Lewis to hit off of the lefty Brian Fuentes, the universe was kept in order: according to the laws that govern our universe, a left-handed hitter is incapable of getting a hit off of a left-handed pitcher. Now I hear rumor that it’s happened a couple times, but I’m skeptical. There’s no way that Fred Lewis, a career .297/.381/.378 against lefties, could possibly have gotten a hit off of the lefty closer. Thank God that crisis was averted, as Dan “Righty” Ortmeier struck out to end the game.

With the Giants facing five straight left-handed starters in the next week, Bruce Bochy has a decision to make about Lewis, who’s had a grand total of 9 PA’s against lefties this season (with 2 hits and 3 BB’s). With Zach Duke on the mound tonight, Bochy has failed the first test, benching Lewis in favor of Dan Ortmeier in left-field. Going by this theory, Freddie Lewis, our best hitter insofar this season, could potentially not start for a whole freakin’ week. Regardless of who’s pitching, it’s simply bad baseball to bench a .320/.402/.524 hitter out of fear of a lefty-lefty matchup.

Benching Lewis in favor of Ort makes absolutely no sense. Ortmeier on the season is hitting .222/.300/.333 against lefties in 18 AB’s. Benching a superior left-handed hitting player in favor of an inferior right-handed hitter is nothing less than shooting yourself in the foot. Now if the fear is of Lewis not hitting lefties well, he’s certainly not going to improve on this weakness by not facing lefties.  At the same time, such a fear wouldn’t be of merit, as Lewis actually can hit lefties.

All Bruce Bochy has to do to find out this out is to spend a few seconds on Baseball Reference. Watch, I’ll do it right now. In 3.23 seconds, I’ve found out that Frederick DeShaun Lewis is a career .297/.381/.378 against left-handed pitching. That’s really all it takes.  I’d do it again, but I can’t spare another 3-4 seconds out of my busy schedule to look up information that a 3 year old could locate.

Plug it in

As you all know, we are a Giants-themed blog (as is evidenced by the orange color scheme).  Every once in awhile though, we like to plug other stuff that interests us.  The first thing I’m going to point you towards is an ESPN the Magazine article entitled “Open Letter: Barry Zito,” providing some words of encouragement to our recently demoted $126 million man.  I encourage you all to download the handy Barry Zito “Hang in There” poster and to mail it to Mr. Zito for some much needed inspiration.  Likening the Eagles’ “Hotel California” to Barry’s current misery, the Open Letter seeks to provide hope for the most expensive 0-6 pitcher in baseball.

The next item of business to plug is a TV show entitled “Playing for Peanuts.”  This show follows the season of the South Georgia Peanuts of the South Coast League.  I was fortunate enough to see a promo of the first episode of the season, and found it to be enlightening to say the least.  Managed by Wally Backman, the Peanuts are a team staffed by people who play baseball for the love of the game, and nothing more (the $147/month salary ensures this).

Whether it’s the less than roomy living conditions (3 bedrooms and 7 players to a house), the town of Albany where the Peanuts play (population: 75,000), or the 8 hour bus rides (Georgia to Florida for the Opening Day road game), the plight of the true baseball player is portrayed in a way never seen before.  If you’re interested, visit the website of the show, www.PlayingforPeanuts.com.  The show is set to debut May 11th (on Sportsnet Bay Area: Dish Channel 419, Direct Channel 654) at 8pm.

Albatross Sent Flying

With Barry Zito being demoted to the bullpen, the question of whether or not Big Z will ever be a functional Major League starter becomes all the more serious. Decreased velocity, lack of control, and a hitability that is downright scary all figure into the disaster of a season Zito is having. I personally can’t say that the demotion to the bullpen was a bad thing. When just a few years ago he was the best pitcher in the American League, an adjustment to mediocrity is a challenging thing to accept.

The 126 million dollar question right now: why is Barry Zito mediocre? One can point to a declining K/9 rate every year since 2004. One can also point out the rise in BB/9 in every season following his Cy Young year of 2002. He’s not striking people out, and isn’t putting the ball in the strike zone. Simple stuff right? It would seem so, but the statistical evidence doesn’t explain everything. Like why Zito’s fastball lost 4-5 mph in the offseason. Or the reason that a seemingly healthy arm is experiencing a violently sharp decline at the age of 29.

This being said, let’s narrow down these symptoms:

1. 4-5 mph off his fastball over the course of one year
2. Inability to find strike zone
3. Arm slot out of wack, leading to the front side flying open, causing the fastball to tail up and away (think Noah Lowry)
4. A seemingly healthy arm unable to top 85 mph when just a year ago was 88-89 mph.

My big bad theory is Dead Arm Syndrome. Put simply, the wearing away of the muscles of the rotator cuff, and a partial or even full tear of the labrum (rim of cartilage that holds the upper joint in the shoulder) which causes the condition known as Dead Arm Syndrome in which a pitcher loses miles off their fastball, arm slot gets thrown out of wack, and very often a pitcher doesn’t know about it until an MRI is taken, as all they feel is a lack of “zip” in their delivery.

Mark Prior threw his first 200+ IP season at the age of 22, and we all know how his career turned out. While Zito hasn’t had exactly the same amount of problems Prior has had, one can think that all those innings without missing a single start would begin to wear away at the arm of even the most durable pitcher. Now keeping this all in mind, the “workhorse” Barry Zito has thrown 200+ innings in 6 of the last 7 seasons, while averaging 218 IP a season starting from the age of 23. In his 22 year old season he threw 92 IP. The very next year he jumped up to 214 IP, and stayed there ever since, not missing a start for 7 seasons.

I say get this guy a freakin’ MRI before he tears something and needs surgery. Now of course I could be wrong, and a trip to the bullpen could add miles to his fastball and solve all Zito’s problems, or it could simply compound the problem by making an injury less evident through less work. In the meantime, enjoy Pat Misch every 5th day; I know I will.

CORRECTION 4/30:

It was brought to my attention that Zito’s velocity has dropped much more gradually than I thought.  Fan-graphs tracks his average fastball velocity from year-to-year:

2005: 87.3 mph
2006: 85.8 mph
2007: 84.5 mph

Zito to Pen!

As per yahoo sports (and subsequently mccovey chronicles), Barry Zito has been sent to the pen.    Zito, whose starting pitching has been a major detriment this season, may benefit in the short term from a move to the pen.  Most players gain several MPH with this transition.  Whether this move makes any lasting change in Zito’s viability as a starter remains far more doubtful.