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Giants Draft Day Speculation

With Draft Day swiftly approaching, much ado has been made about who the Giants should take with their 5th overall pick in the first round. The debate about drafting for need versus drafting for talent has raged, as many clamor for a position player, while others stand fast in their belief of drafting the best possible player irregardless. The Giants anticipate a block at first-base with Angel Villalona quickly growing out of first-base, while the system is stacked to high-heaven with young arms.

These leads to the debate of who will go to the first four picks before the Giants. No one player has stood head and shoulders above the rest, but the general consensus is that the top four players to go will be third-baseman Pedro Alvarez of Vanderbilt University, high school shortstop Tim Beckham, University of Missouri pitcher Aaron Crow, and San Diego pitcher Brian Matusz (all of these in no particular order).

Based on this, I’ve put together a ranking of the players likely to be available come the 5th pick in the coming draft:

1. 1B Justin Smoak, University of South Carolina

Smoak has arguably the best power potential of any hitter in the draft. He’s a switch hitter who’s said to have 35-40 home run power that goes to all fields. He has a “smooth and easy swing,” has good hands at first, and is the best available talent assuming Alvarez, Crow, Matusz, and Beckham go before him. The Giants can’t worry about Angel Villalona moving to first, especially with can’t-miss hitter like Smoak on the board.

2. C Kyle Skipworth, Patriot High School

While many would take Buster Posey over Skipworth, I’m not one to subscribe to this opinion. While Posey is very good defensively, he doesn’t project well as a hitter, topping out at 10-15 home run power. Skipworth on the other hand has improved his defensive game by leaps and bounds behind the plate to go along with his pole-to-pole power. His frame and smooth left-handed swing draw many comparisons to Joe Mauer only with much more power potential. A year after his defense was harshly criticized, Skipworth came into the following season a new person, with a vastly improved throw-time on base-stealers, and much better footwork going into his throw.

3. 1B Eric Hosmer, American Heritage High School

According to Brewersfan.net’s scouting report, Hosmer has the “most natural swing in the draft.” He has an above-average eye at the plate, a plus glove at first, and is most comparable to Casey Kotchman of the Angels. His biggest advantage at this point is probably his advanced hitting approach, helping him to work deep counts and wait on mistakes from pitchers. In a year where first-base is a deep position in the draft, Justin Smoak and Hosmer stand head-and-shoulders above the rest.

4. RHP Tanner Scheppers, Fresno State University

Scheppers is big for a pitcher at 6′4, 200 lbs, delivering a mid to upper 90’s fastball that’s topped out around 97. In addition to his plus fastball, he has a power slider that ranges from 85-88 mph, deemed by Brewersfan.net to be “unhittable.” He projects to be a staff-ace, and would add lethality a future rotation of Lincecum, Cain, and 2007 draftees Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson. MiLB’s scouting report claims that there’s room for velocity improvement in Schepper’s, an impressive factoid considering how hard he already throws.

5. 1B Yonder Alonso, University of Miami

Alonso hasn’t yet come into his own power-wise, but is considered to be projectable in terms of his bat. Has above-average patience at the plate, which could translate well in the transition to higher levels of play. For now he’s a gap-to-gap hitter, but will develop his power as he grows developmentally. I put Alonso a tier below Smoak and Hosmer namely because his power isn’t quite where it should be, especially considering he’s playing at the college level. At the same time, he has a sweet swing, and will eventually come into his own.

6. 3B Ethan Martin, Stephens County High School

Many would say Martin would be an overdraft, but keep in mind he’s my 6th choice for the 5th pick overall. According to scouts, Martin has tape-measure power, especially to left-field. He has a balanced swing, but will probably have some high strikeout totals due to the length in his swing. Brewersfan.net compares him to Matt Williams, which is good enough for me. He also can hit 95 mph on the pitcher’s mound, and as such provides the Giants with options should they select him. Reminds me a lot of Ryan Braun, with the big-time power and pension for whiffing.

7. LHP Christian Friedrich, Eastern Kentucky

Friedrich has been virtually unhittable during his stay at Eastern Kentucky, striking out 307, surrendering 153 hits, and walking 89, all over 232 innings of work. His fastball ranges from 88-92 mph, topping out at 94. His best pitch is his curveball, which is a straight downer. He throws an average changeup, but that’s a pitch that can be developed fairly easy with the right coaching. Friedrich has a smooth delivery, and his fastball is “sneaky,” causing me to draw comparisons to a Jonathan Sanchez-like arm-action.

8. OF Aaron Hicks, Woodrow Wilson High School

Hicks is a switch-hitting five-tool outfielder who’s style of play is likened to Jose Reyes. He’s very raw, but also very gifted, with above-average speed on the basepaths, to along with his plus power. His defense is advanced for his age (19), while his bat has potential for 20-30 home run power. In addition to his raw ability at the plate, he’s a bit of a pitcher as well, with a mid-90’s fastball to go with his “plus-plus breaking pitch.” Hicks reminds me a lot Jason Heyward, who was drafted by the Braves in last year’s draft.

Left Off The List:

• C Buster Posey, Florida State University: As I said before, I’m not particularly impressed by Posey’s bat, especially for a first-rounder. With defensive-minded Jackson Williams already in the system, and hitting-oriented Pablo Sandoval in place, Posey simply wouldn’t make sense. Skipworth has more potential to be an all-around player, while showing the capacity to rapidly improve.
• SS Gordon Beckham, Georgia: Beckham’s power is pretty limited, said to be just a tick above-average, but mostly projects as a gap-to-gap hitter. Nothing about him really stands out to me, and many say he’ll end up moving to second-base as he moves through the Minors. With this said, he just doesn’t fit the mold of a can’t-miss first-rounder I’d look for.
• LHP Brian Matusz, San Diego: For whatever reason I’m really just not impressed with Matusz. He has good stuff, but he really doesn’t seem any better than Tanner Schepper, Gerrit Cole, or even Christian Friedrich, all of which have better velocity, and better secondary pitches to boot. I’d call Matusz the fifth best pitcher in the draft behind the previously named three and Aaron Crow.

My Overall Rankings:

• 3B Pedro Alvarez: Alvarez is the best hitter in the draft, point blank. The choice the Devil Rays will have to make with their first pick will be if they want Pedro, or pitcher Aaron Crow.
• 1B Justin Smoak
• RHP Aaron Crow: Crow has an arsenal of three plus pitches: a 96 mph fastball, a power slider at 88 mph, and a good changeup with room for improvement.
• SS Tim Beckham: Beckham is a five-tool shortstop with plus power potential. He’s said to be “toolsy,” but still refined for his age (18).
• C Kyle Skipworth
• 1B Eric Hosmer
• RHP Tanner Scheppers
• 1B Yonder Alonso
• 3B Ethan Martin
• LHP Christian Friedrich
• OF Aaron Hicks
• SS Gordon Beckham
• C Buster Posey
  
• SS/OF Destin Hood: Hood is a toolsy shortstop who will likely end up moving to the outfield. Has very good raw power. While it hasn’t yet translated completely into game situations, his bat still projects well.
• RHP Gerrit Cole: Cole has a fastball that he throws up around 98 mph from a three-quarters arm slot. His mechanics leave something to be desired, as he tends to throw across his body. His composure on the mound is rumored to be lacking, as he “gets too emotional.”

This entry was posted on Monday, May 12th, 2008 at 4:32 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.