Detroit deal leaves many unanswered questions in Cleveland
Let’s just say this right from the start: Mark Shapiro is the best GM in baseball. I firmly believe that. Anyone that can build an ALCS contender with a bottom third payroll deserves that honor.
That’s today.
Mark Shapiro’s job is to bring a World Series winner to Cleveland. Let’s not forget that. Are the Cleveland Indians in position to win the World Series with their current team? I think we can all agree that this team is a very good one. I think we can all agree that this team needs to add a couple of pieces to be serious contenders. They aren’t small pieces.
Today, the Detroit Tigers made a huge move, and in doing so, bargained away a lot of their future. In dealing for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, the Tigers gave up six prospects, including their best offensive prospect in Cameron Maybin, and their best pitching prospect in Andrew Miller, and a top catching prospect, Mike Rabelo. Maybin and Miller are the top two prospects in the system. It’s not crazy to say that the Tigers dealt away their future.
But look at what they got in return.
In Cabrera, they got the best young offensive player in the game. Don’t mince words. He hit .294 in his first full season, and hasn’t hit under .320 since then. He’s hit over 30 home runs in all but one of his full seasons. Oh yeah, he’s going to turn 25 in April. He’s arbitration eligible for two more seasons.
In Willis, they pick up a pitcher who many still consider one of the best young pitchers in the game, regardless of his off year this past season. Here’s a kid with an odd windup, but can bring the heat. He’s won 20 games already, and never won less than 10 in a season. There is some downside to Willis, as there are questions about his delivery and the amount of innings he’s thrown at an early age. Still, many consider his issues over the past year to be surrounded around the fact that he’s been on the trading block for two seasons. Now…he’s off the block. Willis turns 26 in January.
The Tigers have improved immensely, and they may just have the best all around lineup in the game. Yes, even better than the Red Sox. Their offense is as follows: Curtis Granderson, Placido Polanco, Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, Gary Sheffield, Carlos Guillen, Ivan Rodriguez, Edgar Renteria and Jacque Jones. Yeah, they dealt for Renteria and Jones earlier in the offseason. Yeah…that’s some kind of lineup. You have to look long and hard to find a weakness.
Their pitching staff now boasts Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis, Kenny Rogers and take your pick after that. Again…strong if it holds up.
You never know what the season brings, but the Tigers, as of right now, look like a team that’s going to be hard to beat.
I’m NOT saying the Indians aren’t going to be a tough team. I think, as is, they will improve offensively. The bulk of their offense is still climbing to their prime. People don’t take that into account. They still need another bat. I don’t care if it’s a corner outfielder, or another player that brings a solid bat. Tonight, I was going to post my plea to go after Cabrera, and not Jason Bay, because of his better bat. I was too late.
Their pitching should also be improved. Sabathia and Carmona are still getting better, and I don’t think the innings will come back to bite CC. I look forward to Carmona improving, although until he puts two seasons together, you just don’t know. Past that, you have Jake Westbrook, who will be better. He’s just that kind of pitcher. The rest will take care of itself.
Still, they need to improve to take the next step. Do I expect Cabrera and Willis? Look, Cabrera will be the next $200 million dollar ballplayer in two years, and Willis will also command a large contract. The Tigers are surely in a better position than the Tribe to sign them to legitimize getting rid of the bulk of their minor league system. At the same time, Detroit has now put their stamp on going after the world series. They’ve made some bold moves this offseason, and for sure, improved their team. You can’t see into the future, but I would have to believe that, barring injury, the Tigers are going to be a major player for the playoffs and beyond. That’s the kind of move you make to take the next step.
I will just end with this. I understand the fear of sending your team curtailing into the great beyond by trading away your minor league system. I’m an Indians fan. The first 2/3 of my life were spent with a team that never finished in the top three of their division. I’m not old, but that’s a damn long time nonetheless. I get the fear. I also understand that there are money constraints. I’m not stupid. I’m a born and bred Clevelander…I’m not getting Cleveland confused with a major market.
…but we’re close. We’re so close.
Would I make a move and put the future at risk to win now. You bet I would…especially if it meant getting Cabrera and Willis.
The road just got a whole lot bumpier for the Indians in their quest for the World Series. Combine the Tigers with the Red Sox or the Yankees acquiring Johan Santana, and you have more of a mountain, than a bump.
Mark Shapiro is the best GM in the business today. What he does this offseason may ultimately decide his fate tomorrow.
GO TRIBE!
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on Tuesday, December 4th, 2007 at 9:40 pm and is filed under James Pete, Dontrelle Willis, Cleveland Indians Rumors, Miguel Cabrera, Winter Meetings, New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Indians, Boston Red Sox.
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47 Responses to “Detroit deal leaves many unanswered questions in Cleveland”
December 4th, 2007 at 10:17 pm
I fear a drop-off and possible injuries for both Tribe aces. Carmona has never approached his amount of innings and CC threw a TON.
If they both go down the Tribe is hosed.
I would expect the league to catch up with Fausto and for him to have a decline.
They have to do something.
December 4th, 2007 at 11:08 pm
I especially fear a dropoff in Carmona…
The catch for me with Sabathia is the fact that he’s in a contract year…I think he’ll step up again.
“They have to something.”
Of that, there is no doubt.
I don’t know John…I don’t know…
I heard something interesting tonight though…that Andrew Jones was considering a one-year deal in the 12-15 million range…hoping for that big year to get a huge multi-year deal next year…
sound familiar? JuanGone and Millwood and…
I don’t think they’ll go there…but there’s a low-risk buy right there…if it’s true…
December 4th, 2007 at 11:23 pm
But where would be play? I doubt he can be convinced to play left.
We struggled at times last year with offensive consistency, but I think that a lot of that can be addressed with a consistent line-up. At this point, I’d rather we play into our strengths, go for broke, and try to either improve our bullpen or rotation with a legit star.
My biggest beef with Shapiro is that he’ll sit on talent for so long that it depreciates in value. I have never understood why we’ll bury the stars-in-the-making littering our farm system, but then play low-ceiling platoon-y players like Delucci, Nixon, Blake, and Michaels. It’s like serving party guests twinkies while the delicious cheesecake in the back goes moldy. Not to harp on this, but I thought the point of us gathering all these trading chips and flexible pieces was to allow us to make a move to put us over the top. I am not unaware of the fact that this is something mentioned here ad nauseum, but coming home tonight and reading about the Tigers/Marlins blockbuster kind of freshened up my frustration.
(I’m not one to propose trades, but I think anything we do needs to start with Peralta. His offense is only good if he’s a shortstop, and his defense is terrible and probably won’t get much better. I don’t see him getting any better, and I don’t see his value increasing either.)
OK, I’m done ranting.
December 5th, 2007 at 1:48 am
the indians really need an every day left fielder, not this dellichaels platoon crap if they have any chance at competing with the tigers in 2008. jason bay would certainly be the shizznit. i say just go ahead and give the pirates cliff lee and kelly shoppach and don’t think twice about it. as for the starting rotation, i’m willing to bet the a’s would probably take jeremy sowers and aaron laffey in exchange for dan haren which again would be a no-brainer if you ask me. they still keep uber-prospect atom miller as their insurance starter in case somebody gets hurt. in the meantime, they get another cy young contending-type pitcher in exchange for two junk ball lefties who still have a lot left to prove.
December 5th, 2007 at 6:52 am
Dave: dream on … if those deals could’ve been done, they’d have been done already.
Other teams are improving, Cleveland stands pat. This is a familiar tune …
December 5th, 2007 at 7:58 am
This from mlbtraderumors.cpm:
According to Dejan Kovacevic, the Indians felt pressured when they saw the division-rival Tigers trade for Miguel Cabrera. Their response was to restart their conversations with the Pirates for outfielder Jason Bay.
A five-player trade is being discussed, apparently expanding upon the rumor originally reported by ESPN’s Steve Phillips. The Bucs would send Bay and catcher Ronny Paulino for Franklin Gutierrez, Kelly Shoppach, and Cliff Lee. It’s decent value for Bay, who should really only be traded this winter if the Pirates feel his decline is for real. It’s not surprising to see the Tribe in on Bay, since the Pirates’ GM came from their organization.
The Indians are not going to stand pat. But giving up Lee, Shoppach and Gutz is WAY TOO MUCH for Bay. I’m ok with Shoppach and Lee, but giving them Gutz alone is close to a wash. He hit 13 HR in 270 AB this year and is a stellar defender. It also would create a hole in RF instead of LF.
Shoppach, Lee and a mid-level arm or Brian Barton type OF would be fair. Those first two have some real value in the trade market. You can’t overpay and create another hole.
What needs to happen is that the Indians need to get serious about the CC thing and if he doesn’t re-up then turn their attention to the Yankees and Mets, who are both going to get shut out on the pitching front. With the Mets you’d have to get Reyes back and give them Peralta. Reyes and Cabrera up the middle is just ridiculously solid. With the Yankees it would start with Hughes.
December 5th, 2007 at 8:34 am
On the CC front, I would approach him with the Peavy deal in mind. Say, “CC, we need to get this done now so we know what we’re up against to combat this Detroit thing. We want to get better, but we can’t make any moves until we know where you stand and you are our #1 priority. Since you and Peavy were the Cys from this year we know it needs to be comparable. He got 52 million for three years so we’re prepared to look at 55. Please give it serious consideration because if you are here, we need to make sure we win.”
Hey, be honest with the guy, he’s not stupid, and he wants to win more than anything. How can beating the NL Cy contract by 3 million be a bad thing? In four years CC will be 31 and a FA set for HUGE numbers. Plus, he’d make on average more than 18 million a season, but just for three years gives you time to develop more pitching before he leaves.
Then if he doesn’t sign you do what you have to do.
On Andruw Jones — If the Indians do get Bay at the price of Gutz, Jones would make a fine RF. Athletes are proud, and part of that pride would make it hard for him to move to right, but the other prideful part of him might get caught up in the whole race for the AL Central thing and the headlines read “Jones addition helps Tribe combat Motown Monster”.
Interesting.
December 5th, 2007 at 9:05 am
John,
I’d rather give up Francisco than Gutz. This seems like just more of Shapiro sitting on the prospect pool we have and being hesitant to use it one way or the other.
As an Indians fan, I feel like I’m driving a Chevy down the highway….a NICE Chevy, but a Chevy, nevertheless….and I’m being passed by all these sleek, sexy Ferraris…frustrating.
December 5th, 2007 at 9:08 am
Yes, the Tigers are greatly improved but they are working with a much narrower window than the Tribe. Sheffield, Pudge, K. Rogers, Todd Jones are nearing the end of their careers. In addition, does anyone think that Ordonez will repeat his most recent performance? Can Dontrelle Willis come back from his disastrous slide, which looks just as bad or worse than C. Lee’s fall from grace? W/O Zumaya, the Kitties BP is average at best. Robertson and Bonderman haven’t exactly been setting the world on fire. This move and the hollowing out of the farm system is not without risks for the Tigers. They are improved and will provide stiff competition for the Tribe but I’m hardly willing to concede even if Shapiro does not pull off his own blockbuster. I just hope we don’t panic and give up too many pieces for Jason Bay (color me skeptical of Bay’s return to glory). I think i’d rather overpay for Rios or J. Hamilton. In any event, I think the chess match is far from over.
December 5th, 2007 at 9:19 am
agree Mick, it is far from over and I don’t want to overpay.
December 5th, 2007 at 10:08 am
I was stunned when I found out about this last night…
This is just sick. They’re farm system has run really dry but their lineup now is just f–king sick. The Tigers will dominate (well, hopefully not that much dominating) the Tribe and will the AL Central the next few years, but once retirements are made and others file for free agency, the Tribe still should be thriving with talent in their farm system, and in the major leagues.
But this is pretty scary for the Indians fans. Huge move.
Dontrelle should do good in Mo-Town, because remember he was pitching for a really bad team the past couple years, and his stats just didn’t look great because of run-support, etc. But I’d expect things to go better for him. Plus it’s a fresh start with a new welcoming atmosphere.
I’m actually pretty happy for the Tigers for some reason, but I’m worrying about the Tribe. Several weeks ago I was saying “Look how sick our lineup is”, but now after comparing it to what Detroit’s will be, it looks oh-so tiny.
December 5th, 2007 at 10:12 am
our lineup’s not that bad, it just needs the boost of one good bat.
December 5th, 2007 at 10:20 am
If the Jays are willing to part with Alex Rios for Matt Cain surely the Tribe could get something done with Adam Miller and Trevor Crowe . . .
December 5th, 2007 at 11:25 am
10:23 a.m., from Buster Olney
• Trade talks between the Indians and Pirates involving outfielder Jason Bay, left-handed starter Cliff Lee and others are dead.
Looks like Huntington just wants more than the Tribe will pay.
December 5th, 2007 at 11:28 am
Good solid article and I agree with a lot of your points. I put this link on our Around The Blogosphere for for 12/5 on MVN Outsider.
December 5th, 2007 at 11:52 am
Didn’t I read somehwere that Shapiro and Ferry are pretty close buds?
That doesn’t make me feel too good.
Do we need another bat, or do we just need a bat to step up?
Hafner needs to bounce back and hit 40 homers again…..and perhaps Garko in a full year can approach 30.
then you need Gutz or Francisco to have a breakout year……and our lineup is set…..or am I worng.
What is more likely….
trading three guys and hoping Bay becomes the missing piece….
or keeping your prospects and Hafner and Garko answer the call
December 5th, 2007 at 12:31 pm
Well, I, for one, am at a complete loss for words today. It really looks like we’re content to just hold our cards, rather than “hit” and give up some of the golden tickets we have floating in the minors (look for Akron and Buffalo to be freaking juggernauts this year). I’m disgusted, I’m jealous of other teams and until he does something to improve the team he built, I’m over Mark Shapiro. Let him go build up someone else’s minor league system.
That being said, pitchers and catchers report in 74 days!
December 5th, 2007 at 12:35 pm
And Dennis, I do agree with you … I look for the continued progression of Gutz and Garko, a full season of Cabrera (assuming he is what we saw last year), and the return of Travis Hafner (benefit of the doubt until further notice…) to be enormous difference makers in this year’s lineup. But I was looking at an everyday left fielder with power, combined with those factors to be an even bigger difference maker.
On paper, there’s no one in the central that can take the Tigers lineup over a long season. But, that is why they do devise a schedule and play the games.
I’m still pouting over Shapiro, though…
December 5th, 2007 at 1:15 pm
It’s a long off-season.
I’m not sure I give up Lee, Shoppach and Gutierrez for Bay — in fact, I’m sure I don’t.
I still say they should look into Rios with Adam Miller and Trevor Crowe.
December 5th, 2007 at 2:19 pm
John: I believe the deal, as proposed, was Lee, Shoppach and Gutierrez for Bay and Ronny Paulino. Essentially it’s Lee and Gutz for Bay, which … eh, not that awful, but I think the Pirates could get more simply by holding onto Jason and letting him have a bounce-back season. If he’s hitting .300 in June, there’ll be a bidding war over him.
I also heard, though, that the Indians/Bay deal was dead — for the second time. I’d guess the Pirates are holding out for a pitching prospect instead of Lee, and Shapiro isn’t biting — perhaps rightfully so.
Lots of posturing to be done before the meetings (and the off-season) are over.
December 5th, 2007 at 2:51 pm
Do the Yankees have any decent outfield or 3B prospects? If so, let’s get for CC what they were willing to offer for Santana: Hughes, plus at least one other stud.
December 5th, 2007 at 3:07 pm
Dave - if we can’t sign him….and they are far apart on the initial offer…..I’m completely on board with you.
If they let CC walk for NOTHING….like they did Manny, Thome and Belle……I will puke.
Maybe do something like the Lofton deal in 97 for Grissom and Justice…..some type of 2-for-1 thing….where you get two SPs to replace CC….and some hitting - Melky Cabrera or something.
December 5th, 2007 at 3:42 pm
First off, the Yankees aren’t actually giving that for Santana. Secondly, the only reason they will give that is because Santana was willing to sign long-term.
I doubt CC would ok the long-term deal with the Yankees without having an opportunity for the Angels, Dodgers or Giants to sign him as a free agent. Santana wanted to be in the east, CC is from the west coast. Whole different situation.
December 5th, 2007 at 3:59 pm
I wouldn’t throw in Gutz for any Bay deal. as someone else said, that just creates a hole elsewhere.
unfortunately, I don’t think the CC discussions can get serious until Santana signs his extension with Boston or New York. That really slows down our plans; because I think we can get in on the Haren or Bedard discussions.
With the quality and quantity of already-big-league young talent we have locked up through at least 2010, I would be more than willing to move a LOT of prospects
December 5th, 2007 at 6:21 pm
Tom brought up a good point. The Tribe has so many of their young “core” locked up for three or four more years that by the time they are ready to leave a whole new wave of youngsters such as Beau Mills will be arriving.
If they can find the right kind of player, and I’m beginning to think Alex Rios is a better match for needs in both team eeds and trading partners, they need to cut the umbilical cord on Adam Miller, Trevor Crowe and Chuck Lofgren if the opportunity presents itself to bolster this team with either a big bat or a nice top-end arm.
The Indians find themselves in kind of a quandry here because they are fighting fan perception while trying to make a solid deal without being fleeced. To upchuck too many players for Bay would be a mistake. I would see Bay putting up numbers like .285/28/92 and does it really help if they give up Gutz, who could produce a .275/25/75 line? THe wouldn’t produce as many RBI because of hitting lower in the order. But it’s his defense that we’d really miss.
Shapiro can’t get sucked into the emotionally-charged trade just because the Tigers dropped the big one on MLB. One does have to wonder what it would’ve taken to get Cabrera here, although I heard Asdrubal and Miller’s names were asked. I don’t want to trade Cabrera because he should be the Cleveland shortstop, which is why everyone else wants him. If Shapiro gets the right opportunity, and I think he could, he might move Jhonny Peralta and slide Cabrera over to his native position. Trade Cabrera and that can never happen.
If they are still looking at needing a utility guy and a power bat, they should seriously consider calling the Jays and talking about Miller, Trevor Crowe, Josh Barfield and the like. The Jays have John McDonald slotted as the starting SS. Maybe Adam Miller and Peralta gets you Rios and McDonald. The Jays get another stud arm and a starting SS and the Tribe gets a great outfielder and super gloveman.
And I finally get to see Cabrera at short.
December 5th, 2007 at 6:36 pm
I’m really not sold on Rios, myself … but I don’t think even I would’ve given up Gutierrez for another outfielder. I have said all along, and maybe I’ll get around to writing about it one of these days, I think Gutierrez will continue to progress this year and could be at least
December 5th, 2007 at 6:39 pm
what Rios is now. Most likely better. I really like this kid.
And John, I get what you’re saying about Shapiro not wanting to get fleeced just for the sake of showing the public he can make a trade. I just don’t think throwing in Miller to complete the Bay deal is getting fleeced. Maybe the Pirates were asking for more than even that, though. They certainly didn’t need to move him now.
Stop it! You’re making me come to my senses and come down from the ledge… I like it out here!
December 5th, 2007 at 7:18 pm
Gut is equal to Bay and cheaper. No way to that deal
December 5th, 2007 at 7:24 pm
Though yesterday sure was tough for Tribe fans, Shapiro has a lot of cards. If he is a good poker player he will use them when the time is right and right now it is a seller’s market. Let the dust settle and see what is out there if you are a buyer. If he is a seller (CC) now is the time to strike. Cabrera, Hughes, and a decent propect sounds great to me. Would be a sensational defensive outfield and acceptable offensively.
December 5th, 2007 at 7:42 pm
Dave, that deal would be TREMENDOUS! Hughes will be an outstanding #2 in two years. I’d do that yesterday.
Here’s a portion of an article from globandmail.com:
Ricciardi still hasn’t heard back from the San Francisco Giants, but sources with both teams said there is now just one offer on the table: Alex Rios for Tim Lincecum, even up. No Troy Glaus. No Matt Cain. Nothing else. Ricciardi is ready to make the deal right now. Giants GM Brian Sabean has yet to respond - although he has delayed his daily press briefing with Bay area reporters.
That’s why I think Rios is attainable. I DON’T want to give up Gutz for any outfielder. I’d rather have Rios than Bay.
December 5th, 2007 at 11:49 pm
Granted, this year showed us that depth is important. We wouldn’t have been where we were if it weren’t for the depth we had. But between players running out of options (Lee, Choo, Marte) and others pushing for starting spots (Cabrera deserves one, I’d be willing to bet Barfield’s ready for a comeback season) plus ‘veterans’ we have signed (Michaels, Dellucci, Byrd) the 25 man roster is very tight. No, it’s overflowing. A trade has to be made at some point to free up some space.
So many of our players, core players and potential future core players, are locked up for the next 3 yrs. Really, barring injury, there is very little room for some of these prospects to come up. We also have a our spending pretty well set (minus on CC) for the same time period. Shapiro, who I also have enormous faith in, has set the team up very well. Just as James so eloquently wrote, Shapiro has all the tools but he needs to make that big plunge.
As a fan who watched the building up of those clubs in the 90’s, watched and understood what was being done starting with the Colon trade, and has watched (pretty much daily) the growth of our prospects and the development of our core players right up through these last playoffs. I love many of our prospects, but I honestly think Shapiro & the FO (not to mention many of us die hard fans) get too attached to them. We over value them. Just reading through these postings tells me that. Our best prospect - Miller - is not as good as Hughes, Cain or Lincecum. The rest of the league doesn’t quite get what we see in Gutz (although I’m sure they see him as serviceable with a pretty big upside). And many of the other names we toss around here are realistically B-level prospects - they might make it, but probably not. So when we start talking trades about Haren, Bedard, Bay or Rios - those are proven commodities. It’s going to take a lot to get there.
All of that said, I would kill if Shapiro would just pony up and pull together any combination of Lee, Shoppach, Peralta, Michaels, Dellucci, Miller, Lofgren, Choo, Francisco, Crowe, Aubrey, Snyder, Sipp, Sowers, Laffy (although I’d prefer to keep those last two most of all) and turn them into Bedard and Rios (or even Hamilton from Cinncy). This coupled with (hopefully) resigning CC and our team is pretty much set for the next 3-4 years while our minor league system restocks. We’d have a lineup of:
Sizemore
Cabrera (SS)
Pronk
V-Mart
Garko
Rios (Hamilton - just not Bay) (LF)
Gutz
Marte
Barfield
CC
Carmona
Bedard
Westbrook
Byrd (Sowers/Laffy)
Of course the bullpen is a yearly endeavor. Offensively as our guys rebound (Pronk, Barfield) and continue to grow (Gutz, Cabrera, Marte, Garko) we’d be able to match up or hold our own against just about anyone. Defensively we’d be outstanding. Starting pitching would match up to anyone - even if Boston gets Santana.
There are holes in this, of course. The lack of depth could kill us next year easily. It destroys any flexibility we have for future trades. But it does allow us to take that BIG step that many of us feel we need. We were good last year. Probably the second best team in the majors. But all of our competitors have or are working to improve themselves this offseason. Standing pat just won’t due.
December 5th, 2007 at 11:59 pm
Just to add:
There’s a reason I’m not a GM. I would be pursuing this with everything I had if I were GM. I’d also probably be screwing over the team for not only the future, but probably this year too. Shapiro (and Antonetti) are geniuses who deserve every penny paid to them.
December 6th, 2007 at 8:07 am
Michael, as far as overvaluing our own prospects I beg to differ. Miller has all kinds of value because of his stuff and his arm. He had a AA/AAA year that mirrored Hughes’ success. Then he was injured last year. Would I rather have Hughes? Yes. But Miller is right there when talking value.
Gutierrez has speed, a great arm and is a tremendous defender. He hit 13 HR in half a season at a pretty young age and many see him as a viable CF. His power and average should only increase once he sees more MLB pitching. He was a .300+ hitter at Buffalo.
Trevor Crowe possesses a package of speed that many other teams would love to have in a potential top-of-the-order hitter. He had early success in the minors, only to struggle early then recover as he was promoted last year to Akron.
Ben Francisco’s short body of work showcased a quick swing with power and a solid glove that makes one think he’ll have a career at least as a fourth OF.
Looking at pitching — the Tribe has good, young arms in Laffey, Sowers and Lee who have all shown they can pitch in the majors, and Lofgren (futures game), Sean Smith and Brian Slocum with other arms on the way.
Kelly Shoppach is on most teams’ wish list this Christmas, as he is a viable MLB hitter with power and a great arm.
Then there’s always Andy Marte, who actually still has some upside.
Granted, these guys are not the Yankees’ big three pitchers, but when you look at the Mets scapping around trying to get something done they can’t because their prospects are not that good.
A package featuring some combo of Miller, Gutz, Crowe, Laffey, Sowers and Shoppach could get almost anybody in a deal.
I just don’t think giving those guys up for Jason Bay (I’d do Miller, Shoppach) in great volume makes sense. Trading Gutz for Rios is dumb because the players are too similar. With a season under his belt, Gutz could easily produce numbers similar to Rios’ production from last year.
Fact is, the Indians will have to overpay in players to get the upgrade they want, the question is can they find the right player and will Shapiro pull the trigger?
December 6th, 2007 at 8:41 am
John M and Michael,
To add to your discussion, let’s not overlook one thing….we watched in the 90’s as John Hart put an all star lineup on the field that could hit, but not pitch. Remember the references to a tavern league slow pitch softball team?
Well, I took a look at the Tigers pitching stats last night….
Verlander 18-6 3.66 ERA
Bonderman 11-9 5.01 ERA
Robertson 9-13 4.76 ERA
Durbin 8-7 4.72
Kenny Rogers hurt & old
Willis 5-10 in the NL, with no DH to face
Bull Pen questionable at best
The point I’m making is let’s not concede the race to them yet. Maybe Shapiro knows what he’s doing in hoarding pitching. The Tigers’ lineup IS ominous….but doesn’t pitching trump hitting???
December 6th, 2007 at 8:46 am
Here’s the Top 100 Prospects List for 2007 from Baseball America:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/263445.html
What’s interesting is that there are some big names on there, some moved up throughout the year (Joba Chamberlain) some didn’t.
The Tribe has Adam Miller (23), Chuck Lofgren (54) and Trevor Crowe (64) on the list.
Other notables include:
Phil Hughes (4)
Cameron Maybin (6) — Dealt to Marlins
Andrew Miller (10) — Dealt to Marlins
Tim Lincecum (11) — Talks in trade for Rios
Troy Tulowitzki (15) — of WS fame
Andy LaRoche (19)
Mike Pelfrey (20)
Matt Garza (21) — Dealt to Rays
Adam Miller (23)
Billy Butler (25)
Ryan Braun (26)
Adam Jones (28)
Jacoby Ellsbury (33)
Nick Adenhart (34)
Jarrod Saltamacchia (36) — Dealt to Rangers
Felix Pie (49)
Clay Buchholtz (51)
Chuck Lofgren (54)
Eric Aybar (61)
Trevor Crowe (64)
Kevin Slowey (71)
Phillip Humber (74)
What I find interesting is that Slowey was recently mentioned as the target in deal for Austin Kearns:
According to Bill Ladson of MLB.com, the Nationals are shopping shortstop Felipe Lopez and outfielder Austin Kearns. Two targets: Mike Pelfrey of the Mets and Kevin Slowey of the Twins.
Would you give up Lofgren or Laffey for Kearns?
December 6th, 2007 at 8:52 am
I do agree with Michael. I tend to think that we do overvalue our prospects. “We” meaning “us.” The fans (or at least those of us who congregate here at Tribe Report.) I mean, I know this sounds rather elementary, but how many of us have ever seen Adam Miller throw a baseball? How many of us know how he reacts when he gives up a home run, or how he pitches with runners in scoring position? It’s easy - we don’t. We have certain resources available to us - usually the Web - and we base our opinions of these prospects on statlines we see on the Kinston Indians’ homepage, or by reading what Baseball Prospectus has to say about them, or we start to get attached to the 5-7 “usual suspects” … the few names of “rising stars” we hear about in the minor league reports from our local media. And there’s nothing wrong with that. It’s part of being a fan who pays attention to these things, but that’s all pretty surface-y information. Yet it’s often said by us, “I’d definitely trade these two guys for this guy … but to add this guy…no WAY!”
Why not? Because we throw in the name of someone whom we’re told by Paul Hoynes has “electric stuff,” THAT means we, the fans shouldn’t be behind the deal, even if it’s for someone who is established and is universally agreed upon as someone who could really help us now … especially as our division is once again catching up to us, and even more especially when we weren’t that far ahead to begin with.
Look, there’s mortgaging the future (read: Tigers) and there’s being a good chess player and knowing when to sacrifice your pawn to get the other guy’s queen. I think Mark Shapiro has more than proven himself able to do that while he’s building a team. He has yet to show he can do that to push his team to that elusive “next level.” And it seems that a lot of people here have bought into his mentality … even if they say they haven’t. It comes down to: do we want to get better or do we want to keep reading about how much minor league talent we have?
December 6th, 2007 at 8:56 am
p.s. the length of the rather meandering sentence that makes up the entire next-to-last paragraph is noted…
December 6th, 2007 at 10:48 am
Brian Barton just got taken #1 by the Cards.
On another Bedard note:
“According to Joe Haggerty of the Metro out of Philadelphia, the Phillies offered Kyle Kendrick, Shane Victorino, and two unknown prospects to the Orioles for Erik Bedard and were turned down. It’s generally believed that the Phillies don’t have the young available talent Andy MacPhail seeks, but it never hurts to ask.”
That would interest me, but never happen.
On another Rios note:
Elliott also said the Reds are interested in Alex Rios. If the Giants are pondering sending Tim Lincecum to the Jays for him, I imagine the Reds would have to counter with Homer Bailey. Bailey, however, is less proven than Lincecum.
I’d be all over that if I was the Tribe.
Both notes from mlbtraderumors.com
Oh, and Jackson, yes we (fans) overvalue the kids, but what I’m saying is that our kids are in line with most teams’ kids. The question is who’s got the gumption to use them to garner a proven commodity?
December 6th, 2007 at 10:49 am
One more item I just saw said Carllos Silva may end up in KC. The Royals are really goiing to make the AL Central an ugly division to play in next year. At least Andruw Jones didn’t go there . . .
December 6th, 2007 at 10:52 am
I was talking to my brother recently about Shapiro, etc. and I asked: would he be a good GM for the Yankees? That is, is he regarded as a good GM because his strengths (building a farm system, identifying good talent at affordable prices, and so on) happen to match the economic situation in Cleveland? Or is he good enough at his job to make the right moves where the economics are very different, where the sky is the limit?
December 6th, 2007 at 11:02 am
I love the discussion…love it…
Let me just say this…and be done with. Shapiro needs to make a move that will solidify his chances on winning the World Series.
I keep hearing about the next 3 and 4 years…
Here’s what I know. This past year…we were the 2nd best team in baseball…of that, there is not doubt. Shapiro’s focus should be on winning. Should we trade away our future?
I DON’T CARE ABOUT 3 YEARS FROM NOW. I care about next year.
Don’t forget that we were the 2nd best team. What did we need to be the BEST team. I think we all would agree that one more bat was enough offensively. However…would we be saying that with Hafner rolling? No…I don’t think so. I think we’d be fine with the outfield prospects if Hafner was launching 45 and driving in 140. Maybe offense isn’t our focus with the improvement of Gut…Garko…Cabrera…etc…
There really isn’t a player in decline…and I don’t think we’ve even seen VMart or Sizemore close to their prime.
What let us down in the playoffs? Pitching.
Should our focus be a starter? Should our focus be another reliever with backend experience?
I say yes…and yes. It’s obvious…right now…our focus on a bat has yielded nothing.
Now’s time to focus on the rotation.
As for dealing C.C….we have a better chance at winning a series with him…than without him. I don’t know about you…
but this rotation…
C.C.
Carmona
Westbrook
Byrd
Lee/Sowers/Laffey…whoever…
just isn’t the best in baseball…and Carmona isn’t a 100% lock at 19 games again.
Compare that rotation to the Yankees right now…and you have something. Compare it to the Red Sox…and it just doesn’t compete top to bottom.
Go get Haren.
Go get Bedard.
GET BOTH.
Pay to get them.
Imagine…
C.C.
Haren
Carmona
Westbrook
Byrd/Laffey/Lee/Sowers (whoever’s left)
Imagine…
C.C.
Haren
Bedard
Carmona
Westbrook
What do you have to give up to get that?
Miller, Lofgren, Crowe, Francisco, Shoppach, Peralta, Barfield, Marte?…
I don’t think it will happen…but I tell you this…
THAT ROTATION…makes any corner outfielder we need…
not a necessity.
December 6th, 2007 at 11:23 am
Jim — I totally agree with what you just said, but the list of prospects for Bedard & Haren - at the pace it’s going it would take ALL of them to get just one.
That’s the problem with these deals, everyone who has pitching is trying to milk everyone who needs it. I don’t see this mess playing out until late January. It’s also why Shapiro has a few prime deal makers in Cliff Lee, Adam Miller, Jeremy Sowers and Aaron Laffey.
Pitching is where it’s at.
The other problem is that if Pronk doesn’t come back, Garko, Gutz and Cabrera don’t improve and Victor gets tired or hurt the Indians offense will stink it up.
So it’s a fine line in figuring what to do and I for one am glad it’s Shapiro doing it and not us Roto-league fan GMs.
December 6th, 2007 at 11:24 am
But then look what you’re giving up to get it. That’s actually my point in criticizing Shapiro. We’re not asking him to give up the farm to bring in two of the hottest commodities in baseball (Haren and Bedard) … at least I’m not. Those deals aren’t Cleveland kind of deals. But neither should be scrap-heap signings like Dellucci and low-impact trades for the Jason Michaels of the world — at least not anymore. There is an in-between and, at least in my eyes, he doesn’t see it that way. To him, overpaying a bit for Jason Bay to satisfy a need is the same thing as giving up the guys Jim suggested to get Haren and Bedard, neither of whom we’d be able to sign once their contracts run out.
And Chuck, maybe the Yankees aren’t a good example. But to ask what would he do with Illitch’s money in the culture of the AL Central is a better question. The yankees are a different animal in terms of money. But what would Shapiro do in a somewhat mid-market with an owner willing to empty his pockets? Good question. I suppose I’d have to think he’d be more willing to sign free agents, but I still think he’d be reluctant to trade his prospects in most cases. That’s just who he is (or who he has become).
December 6th, 2007 at 11:26 am
and those two guys would be worth MORE than the prospects you mentioned, Jim. At least in this market. I forgot to add that.
December 6th, 2007 at 11:26 am
Ha. you already added it for me, john.
December 6th, 2007 at 12:11 pm
When it comes right down to it this whole conversation hinges on CC and I think that’s what scares the crap out of Shapiro in regards to making any deal.
If CC signs you might see Shapiro unload on some deals, and in all fairness, I think he would. But if CC says hug a root, then that changes the complexion of things dramatically.
1) CC pitches this year and hits the market. THIS CANNOT HAPPEN. They’ll never see him again. If he pitches this year for the Tribe without an extension Shapiro cannot trade away any pitching, unless it’s in a deal for Haren or Bedard.
2) CC refuses a deal and is dealt. If this plays out, it has to be in a deal where Shapiro picks up some blue-chippers, including a Hughes-type pitcher, and flips the extras (Melky Cabrera/Matt Kemp types) with Adam Miller to snag Haren or Bedard. That way the Tribe comes away with a viable starter who might be really good (Hughes/Billingsly) in the future and replaces one year of CC with two of Bedard or three of Haren.
A deal like the second one is where the Tribe’s prospects (and depth thereof) come in really handy. It’s hard for teams to match the asking price for their stud pitchers, but when you take only one year of CC, parlay it into something you can keep, something you can trade and add your own prospects you can do it and make it worthwhile.
The Dodgers are still the prime spot for CC I believe, because they have a good shot at signing him being on the west coast.
Now that they signed Andruw Jones the Dodgers are going to be aggressively pursuing a stud pitcher, and we have one who calls California home. They’re also going to put Kemp or Andre Ethier on the block to do it. If you give them a negotiating window you could get full value from CC.
I go back to the deal I mentioned previously, and I hope I don’t offend anyone by overvaluing prospects. : )
The Tribe deals CC to the Dodgers for OF Matt Kemp, SP Chad Billingsly and 3B Adam LaRoche. The Indians can keep LaRoche to possibly play 3B and slot Billingsly into the back of their rotation. Flip Kemp along with Adam Miller, Trevor Crowe and WHOMEVER THEY WANT to the A’s for Dan Haren. They could take another arm (Sowers, Laffey or Lofgren) if that’s what it takes.
This deal adds more depth to your pitching even if you lose Miller (injury risk) and another arm because you only had one year of CC (you swapped for 3 of Haren) and Billingsly has had success at the major league level.
It also gets you a viable third base possibility in LaRoche. You still have Ben Francisco, Andy Marte, Kelly Shoppach and a host of young pitchers if you need anything during the year to make a deal.
I like this option so much, especially when I look at CC making $18 million for the Tribe, that I’d do it now and not even worry about extending CC.
December 6th, 2007 at 1:00 pm
From the LA Times:
By acquiring Andruw Jones on the night before the winter meetings end, the Dodgers filled two of their off-season needs — a middle-of-the-order bat and a defensive upgrade in center field. The Dodgers are expected to move weak-armed Juan Pierre to left field, leaving Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier for right. The surplus of outfielders could make either Kemp or Ethier expendable and the Dodgers are believed to have been asked for Kemp in trade discussions for several available pitchers, including left-hander Erik Bedard of the Orioles. An official for the Athletics said earlier in the day that the Dodgers weren’t considered a viable trade partner for right-handers Dan Haren or Joe Blanton, but the potential availability of Kemp could change that.
See, there’s teams out there that aren’t viable trade partners for Haren, but could benefit from a three-way deal with the Tribe.
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