Haren to the Tribe rumors build steam; why not Bedard?
If you were to believe all the hype today, it appears as though the Cleveland Indians have moved past the Arizona Diamondbacks in the Dan Haren-sweepstakes.
Yesterday, Ken Rosenthal upped the ante on a potential Indians’ deal that would send Aaron Laffey, Adam Miller and Asdrubal Cabrera, for Haren. Oakland seems to be hanging the deal on ACab, who would immediately bolster the A’s infield at shortstop. ACab would take the place of light-hitting, more expensive Bobby Crosby, who has yet to show the ability to be the every day short.
The Indians have pretty much established that Cabrera is as close to untouchable as you can be. The Indians are trying to get the A’s to choose between either Josh Barfield or Ben Francisco as the third piece to the deal, with the idea that they would include BOTH players if need be. The A’s reportedly would require Cleveland to substitute Cabrera with another top pitching prospect. That can only mean Jeremy Sowers in my mind, although some would speculate that it could be Chuck Lofgren. I would include either, with the belief that Cleveland could eventually replenish the pitching in the minors with a Sabathia trade, or just through good moves over the next couple of years.
I don’t see Cleveland making any deal that includes Cabrera, unless they are getting more than Haren back. I can’t really see the A’s taking a deal, even IF the Indians were to offer up Barfield, Miller, Laffey and Francisco. To me, it doesn’t seem like much of a price to pay. That’s a pretty good sign that it’s too good to be true. I could see the Indians giving up Sowers, Laffey and Miller, who truly are the Indians top three pitching prospects, and all major league ready in some capacity.
If you think about the outcome, a starting rotation that includes CC Sabathia, Dan Haren, Fausto Carmona, Jake Westbrook and either Cliff Lee or Paul Byrd, and thoughts of Sowers, Miller or Laffey become distant. If you sign Sabathia, you have the top three wrapped up for at least three years, which makes the NEED for Laffey, Miller and Sowers unnecesary. Cleveland would have plenty of time to replenish. This deal makes sense in many, many ways.
The Indians are also minor players in the Erik Bedard sweepstakes, according to Paul Hoynes. After today’s blockbuster deal that saw Baltimore swap Miguel Tejada for every player in Houston organization (including OF Luke Scott, and two outstanding young arms), it’s apparent that the Orioles are taking steps to get younger. Adding those two arms make you think that Bedard leaving is near. Have the Indians contacted the Orioles, with the price being too high? Or, are the Indians involved in some form. It’s believed that the Orioles are look
Haren’s deal is much more friendly in years, with Haren locked up for two more at 4 and 5 1/2 million. There’s a club option for 6.75 million if Haren pitches a certain amount of innings. Bedard is arbitration eligible over the next two seasons, which is a scary proposition for the Indians, even though they are adept at staying away from arbitration. Still, the potential for Bedard to earn more than Haren is there. Bedard isn’t believed to be a health risk either, but has never pitched more than 200 innings.
Haren is the better choice.
What will happen in the long run? Your guess is as good as mine.
This entry was posted
on Wednesday, December 12th, 2007 at 8:04 pm and is filed under Aaron Laffey, Cliff Lee, Fausto Carmona, Jake Westbrook, Asdrubal Cabrera, Ben Francisco, Chuck Lofgren, Adam Miller, Oakland A's, Dan Haren, Paul Byrd, Miguel Tejada, Cleveland Indians, Arizona Diamondbacks, Bobby Crosby, Luke Scott, Jeremy Sowers, James Pete, Erik Bedard, Josh Barfield.
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
THE AUTHOR
RECENT ARTICLES BY DIVISION RIVALS
ARCHIVE
SPONSORS
Online Seats
Jacobs Field Info Indians Tickets
Ticket Specialists
Cleveland Indians Tickets Cleveland Cavaliers Tickets
Tickets4U
Cleveland Indians Tickets All Star Game Cleveland Browns Tickets
Coast to Coast Tickets
Cleveland Indians Tickets Cleveland Cavaliers Tickets Cleveland Browns Tickets NASCAR Tickets Online Event Tickets Broker
7 Responses to “Haren to the Tribe rumors build steam; why not Bedard?”
December 13th, 2007 at 8:58 am
Cabrera would indeed be a deal breaker if the decision were mine. And I’d probably only want to give up one arm (the A’s would logically insist on Miller) from among the Sowers, Laffey, Lofgren, Miller group. Lee, of course, would be a different story. I’d even give up Gutierrez knowing we’d have to turn around and replace him with someone like Rios (if available). I wonder if a Miller, Gutierrez, Barfield, and Lee and/or a lesser minor leaguer (Brown?) package could get it done? If the A’s insist on Cabrera I’d say “thanks, but no thanks” and move on.
December 13th, 2007 at 11:51 am
The more I think about it - the more I feel uneasy about giving up on Lee. Carmona showed us how a young pitcher can turn things around and become a stud……why are we so ready to dump Lee?
He’s a lefty - has a ssuccessful background - and is struggling to find consistency……shouldn’t we learn from what we learned this year and give him some more time to benefit the Tribe?
Now if there is an attitude problem - then that is a different story - but that is speculation at this point, right?
I am all for getting Haren - absolutely. But at the same time I am not ready to blindly throw Lee into a deal just because he struggled last season.
Same goes for Sowers.
December 13th, 2007 at 12:48 pm
You have to give quality to get quality. Too many times you see fans wanting to give up all of our leftover parts for a marquee name.
I agree with James, though, that we can send quality pitching prospects in this deal, coming from a position of strength. At least two out of the Miller, Laffey, Sowers group, if not three. These guys are of more value to other teams than to us. For the Tribe, they are merely depth.
I’d most certainly try to do it without throwing in ACab. There is too much uncertainty up the middle if you trade him. For me, Cabrera is the one guy you can write in and have no worries about the glove, at short or second.
He looks to be of critical importance on a team of ground ball pitchers.
December 13th, 2007 at 6:22 pm
I’ve got four comments on this thread:
1. It’s usually unwise to pay much attention to these stories. Ken Rosenthal is a very good writer, but he’s paid to draw traffic to the Fox Sports site. It’s in his best interest to float stories that get people talking.
2. As I said a couple of threads ago, the possibility of the A’s and Indians doing a deal is really small. Billy Beane hopes to sucker teams into paying way more than a player is worth; his natural prey is the dumb GM or the one desperate to win. Mark Shapiro isn’t either of those things.
Also, as the stories have noted, Haren is under contract, for very little money, for a number of years. Beane doesn’t have to trade unless he gets an offer that wows him.
Also, the A’s methodology is to look for very young players (under 24) who haven’t been injured and haven’t had off years. That would eliminate almost every chip being mentioned here except Cabrera and Laffey.
If I had to bet, I’d figure Haren ends up in New York. Johna Santana will end up somewhere and I’m figuring Boston. When that happens, I figure Steinbrenner the Lesser to panic and offer Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy (or something equally nutty).
3. There’s a better chance of the Orioles trading Bedard to Cleveland, because Andy McPhail is under some pressure and isn’t the sharpest knife in the drawer. However, they’re looking for outfield help, and if Seattle is really willing to give up Adam Jones, there isn’t anything the Indians could do to compete.
4. I don’t believe there should be such a thing as an “untouchable” player. You should listen to every offer, and if a team dangles Ted Williams and Warren Spahn for Grady Sizemore, make the move.
But Asdrubal Cabrera, at this moment, projects to be as good a hitter as Derek Jeter– and a much better fielder (or, more precisely, the kind of fielder most people think Jeter is). There aren’t too many guys I’d exchange for him.
Another guy who’d be very close to that level is Aaron Laffey. I do not understand why people seem so unimpressed… I see a guy who:
A. Is 22 years old (won’t be 23 until next April).
B. Posted a winning record as a rookie, with an ERA below the league average, and a strikeout-to-walk ratio better than average (2-1). That’s something that a lot of prospects are unable to do– the fabled Andrew Miller, for example, failed on all three counts last year with the Tigers.
C. Is already one of the best pitchers in baseball in several respects. Only four AL pitchers got groundball outs more often– hit 3.57-1 ratio beat out both Jake Westbrook (2.21) and Fausto Carmona (3.28).
In 9 starts and just under 50 innings, Laffey allowed only 2 homers– that’s less than 10 in a full year, no matter how you project it.
He’s extremely tough to run on– only four attempts and three of the four were gunned down. And he did this even though Victor Martinez was his catcher in 7 of the 9 games.
D. He made significant progress during the year. His 4.56 ERA breaks down as 5.01 in August (four starts) and 4.15 in September (five).
E. He did allow more hits than innings pitched, but this may be due to not working well with Martinez. Opponents hit .306 against Laffey (slugging .408) when Martinez was catching and .220 (slugging .317) with Shoppach catching.
F. 2007 wasn’t some kind of fluke year– Laffey’s minor-league ERAs for the least three years have been 3.24, 3.18 and 2.88.
G. Worked 4.2 scoreless innings in one playoff appearance.
Rosenthal described him as “a sinker-baller who could develop into another Mark Buehrle”, and that’s a pretty good comp. Buehrle’s rookie year (2000) is very similar to Laffey– 4-1 record, 55 hits in 51 innings, 2-1 K/W ratio, 4.21 ERA.
If another team were asking me for young pitchers, I’d cheerfully hand them Sowers or Adam Miller before I’d let go of Laffey.
December 14th, 2007 at 7:26 am
Geoff:
Great stats to back up the Laffey value. You need to send that to Billy Beane.
I still wouldn’t make the Sizemore trade, though, until they figure out how to re-attach Ted Williams’ head.
December 14th, 2007 at 7:28 am
Geoff:
Great stats to back up Laffey’s value. You need to send that to Billy Beane.
I still wouldn’t make the Sizemore trade, though, until they figure out how to reattach Ted Williams’ head.
May 28th, 2008 at 10:49 pm
[…] The Dan Haren to the Indians rumors are beginning to pick up steam. [Tribe Report] […]
Leave a comment