Will Joe Borowski be the Cleveland Closer?
Joe Borowski is the Cleveland Indians’ closer, and I’m not sure that’s a good thing. As good as the Cleveland Indians’ bullpen was last season, Joe Borowski was more or less an enigma. You know the good, that Joe Borowski had a career high and AL leading 45 saves. You know that bad, that Joe Borowski had a 5.07 ERA. The UGLY? Joe Borowski is our closer again this season. That’s right Tribe fans, get out the electric paddles, because it looks like we are headed to another summer of heart palpatations and stress.
Before I get started with this, you need to know that I am not the guy that’s going to tell you that the closer is overrated. Over the years, I think it’s become pretty established that you are going to be much better with a back-end guy that can slam the door shut with the game on the line. That’s just not an arguable point. Instead, I’m going to focus completely on Borowski, and the guys surrounding him. IS HE THE BEST CANDIDATE for the Cleveland Indians’ closer, or is there a guy out there somewhere, either in the organization, or in another organization that we can get?
Here are the candidates:
Joe Borowski (Righty): He’s going to be the closer to start the year, unless something drastic happens in the meantime, and it’s still possible that it will. Certainly, you have to know that Mark Shapiro can’t exactly look at Borowski and say, “Yeah, he’s a lock.” Borowski does bring some intangibles to the table. Here’s a guy that really doesn’t seem bothered by anything. He can literally give up 8 runs on Monday, and come back a day or two later, and look like he’s working on his 30th straight save. At the same time, he can’t overpower you, and when he gets the ball up, it gets ugly, early. The catch-22 with Borowski is if he isn’t the closer, what do you do with him? He’s proved time and time again that he just doesn’t bring much of anything if it’s not a save situation, or a game on the line situation. If he’s not a closer, you may have to release him.
Rafael Betancourt (Righty): The obvious candidate to take over for Borowski would seem to be Rafael Betancourt. Betancourt was as good a setup guy as there was in baseball last year. He doesn’t have wicked stuff, but he can be deceptive, and locate. Can he step up and be the guy? I think you have a guy that can spot close for sure, but there are more than just concerncs with Rafe as a closer. Rafe has 12 saves in his brief time with the Tribe. He also has 17 blown saves. It’s not his role, and shouldn’t be. Hopefully, Betancourt is left out of the closer slot, and left in his dominant set-up slot.
Masahide Kobayashi (Righty): It’s hard to say what to expect from Kobayashi. Here’s a guy that’s saved 227 games in Japan, but it’s Japan. Still, I’ve never seen the guy pitch. He obviously has closing experience, but I don’t think this is a guy that was commanding a lot of attention as being a closer-extraordinaire. Kobayashi reportedly has a low to mid-90’s fastball, a good splitter, with a better than average slider, that’s his out pitch. He should fit in quite well with this staff full of slider pitchers. I believe that Shapiro brought him in this year to be the Keith Foulke guy to Joe Borowski. I have a feeling we may be seeing Borowski and Kobayashi sharing save opportunities at some point. If Kobayashi pans out, Borowski’s time as an Indian might be short.
Rafael Perez (Lefty): Rafael Perez may be the most intriguing of all the candidates. As a starter before becoming a set-up guy this year, Perez wasn’t even on the horizon until the year progressed. Other than massive problems trying to overpitch in the playoffs, Perez was nearly as good as Betancourt. What he gives you is a low to mid 90’s fastball that he can locate. It’s a good pitch, but his slider is downright filthy. In all seriousness, he has the best slider (I haven’t seen Kobayashi’s) in the system. Lefty’s can’t hit it, and righty’s struggle. He seems to have a good makeup, although the breakdown is a worry. Still, Perez is a top candidate to take over. I think Shapiro and Wedge will look to Kobayashi because of experience (even though it was Japanese hitters, they’ll look at his experience with Bobby Valentine, and as a seasoned pro), will be the guy before Perez.
Jensen Lewis (Righty): Jensen Lewis has closer written all over him. Lewis rolls out a mid-90’s fastball, but the special piece to this is that he’s not always going to try and blow it by you. He varies his speeds between 89-94, and really can get you off balance. You toss in his good changeup, and he can screw hitters into the ground. He’s also developing a slider that he just began using last season. You can imagine that this pitch could really solidify him in this bullpen. His numbers last September were nearly as good as Joba Chamberlain, and he’s NOT going to be a starter at any point. Anyone that watched him come out of the pen and run to the mound, could see this kid wanted the ball, and wanted to get you out. He’s got the make-up, and mentality. This is the guy that, when called up on Friday the 13th, took the number 13, calling it lucky (ultimately giving the number to Asdrubal Cabrera). In my humble opinion, this is the kid I’d use as my closer by the end of the season. He just screams closer to me.
Tony Sipp (Lefty): Sipp is a dark horse candidate that I really don’t know much about, other than seeing the stats. I know the Indians had Sipp pegged as their closer-of-the-future after arm-issues moved him to the bullpen. He’s another guy that is electric against lefties. Not surprising is the fact that Sipp has a wicked slider, and an above average fastball. He also has a good changeup. He missed the 2007 season with Tommy John surgery, but Cleveland showed how much they think of the kid by placing him on the 40-man roster. He’ll be back this year, but don’t expect a major impact until September, when his arm really starts to rebound. Look for Sipp to be one of the guys knocking on the door next year, to be the Indians’ closer.
Adam Miller (Righty): There have been arm issues, and I’ll just say that he’ll probably see some time in the pen THIS season, if his arm is sound. He’s electric, but you all know that. There’s something inriguing about a Papelbon like story. I really want this kid to be an ace, but if he came out and became that electric closer that we’ve really never had (since Mesa’s early stint as a closer), I could put aside the starter aspirations. On a team of intriguing darkhorse candidates, Adam Miller may be the most interesting of all. 100+ MPH…are you kidding me?
I cannot tell a lie, working on this piece has actually appeased me a bit with the bullpen. If Borowski goes down, look for the Tribe to keep Betancourt and Perez in their set-up roles, and move Kobayashi up to the closer, with Jensen Lewis waiting in the wings. If all else fails, I believe you could see Miller rolling out his bag of tricks, but for it to happen, a bunch else will have to fail first. Still, it should be an interesting bullpen year for the Indians…
if we don’t have a heart attack first.
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15 Responses to “Will Joe Borowski be the Cleveland Closer?”
December 20th, 2007 at 12:46 pm
The Indians actually now have the ideal bullpen to leave the “closer” model behind and go back to a “relief ace/fireman” model, ala Rollie Fingers in the early 1980s. Fingers would come in when the game was on the line, not just the ninth inning. The nice thing is that the Indians have a few guys, particularly Betancourt, who look like they have the stuff to do it. Shapiro or Antonetti, however, said this in a PD article at some point that they preferred to keep Betancourt for the 7th and 8th inning situations when the game was most on the line.
Saves do not mean that a relief pitcher is good. Saves mean that a pitcher pitched the ninth inning for a winning team. However, Borowski has pretty good K numbers (pretty consistenly around 8 per 9IP… surprising because he’s not thought of as a K pitcher) and his BABIP was obscenely high this year (which probably means it will drop… that’s a good thing.)
Finally, there’s very little evidence that pitchers perform differently in save vs. non-save situations.
December 20th, 2007 at 1:04 pm
Exactly, Pizza Cutter. I’d say the closer is the best possible role for Borowski. Let him pitch the ninth with a three run lead. If you have a reliever who allows a lot of baserunners, starting the ninth with a lead is a much better scenario than sticking him in key situations in the 7th or 8th a la Fingers, Goose Gossage, Hoyt Wilhelm, etc.
The “closer” per se is, in fact, overrated because his success is usually measured by the most overrated statistic: the save. You bump Borowski down the depth chart and make Betancourt or someone else your “closer” THEN JoBo becomes dangerous. The ninth is the best place for him.
December 20th, 2007 at 1:13 pm
You’re right…saves don’t mean a relief pitcher is good…
Hell…anyone could have 45 saves…right? I’m sorry, but you can’t discount the save stat completely. I’ve agreed from the start…that it’s overblown…
but to say it’s inconsequential is a bit ridiculous. That’s like saying home runs aren’t important, it just means the ball went over the wall for a team that scored.
Everyone can’t be a closer.
As far as the little evidence that pitchers perform differently in save vs. non-save situations…I can agree to a certain extent, if you JUST look at statistics…ERA…what not. You have to include how many days between, how many innings pitched…etc.
Still, if you have 30 save opps, and you blow more than half of them…there comes a time when you say, “Hmmm, he shouldn’t close.”
Does it mean you are a bad pitcher? Not necesarily…you just shouldn’t be a closer.
It was Shapiro that said he would prefer to keep Betancourt in the set up role. He said it twice…once when they picked up the option on Borowski, and again around the time they signed, or were going to sign Kobayasi.
You are correct about the relief ace/fireman model though. Sparky Lyle was similar to Fingers in that respect…and he popped into my head when you mentioned it.
I’ve gotten into this banter about Saves before, and I hate that people make me defend it…since I think it IS an overrated state. I’m just sick as all getout that it’s just tossed aside. Sure, if a guy comes in with a 4-run lead every day, and gives up a couple of doubles every day…yeah…it’s overrated.
But there’s something to a guy that comes in and is lights out…there’s something to a guy that is a 9th inning stopper. You top that off with 40+ saves, and that stat becomes important. I’d prefer to have the lockdown guy than the actual save. I’d prefer to have a shutout, than bring in a reliever, but the Save stat is more than just luck at the end of the game.
December 20th, 2007 at 1:20 pm
error-Kobayashi, not Kobaysi…
and overrated stat, not state…
and my best preference is taking Borowski out of the bullpen altogether…if Kobayashi pans out…and they get another relief pitcher that’s effective…from outside or inside…
December 20th, 2007 at 1:55 pm
Let’s also not forget that saves only come into play when games are close. One more reason it’s overrated.
Let’s say team A is very bad (only 60 wins) and because of their anemic offense 50 of their wins come by 3 runs or less.
then there’s team B who has 80 wins, but only 40 of their wins come by 3 runs or less because they have a better offense.
Team A’s closer will have more opportunities and, perhaps, more saves, but not be the better pitcher (and who cares on a 60 win team anyways).
That’s why in fantasy baseball, towards the end of the draft, i look for a closer on a bad team. he’ll probably get a lot of opps at saves, even if they don’t actually win that many games.
but to agree with james, i would love if the tribe could get a lock down guy to give ME a break at the end. however, i don’t want to pay top dollar for that so we will continually have to catch lightening with our minor league guys.
i think borowski’s fine for now. for every game he blows the tribe ends up coming back and “stealing” a different game. we always forget those and assume we should have won them the whole time.
as long as we get to the playoffs and noone blows a ninth inning lead there, i’m ok with the current pen.
December 20th, 2007 at 3:29 pm
Kevin…I tend to agree about signing a guy for big money…
However, you can’t exclude a trade…if there isn’t big money involved…
a deal similar to Haren…for example…that involves a good young closer…
I don’t think Cleveland needs to do that though with the current arms…
December 20th, 2007 at 4:49 pm
Just about any serviceable major league reliever on an average major league team would save 33 games, assuming you pitched him in the ninth inning on a consistent basis throughout the season.
http://mvn.com/mlb-stats/2007/07/03/how-much-is-that-closer-worth-anyway/
If you want to look at how good a reliever is, look at his close lead protection rate: (Saves + Holds) / (Saves + Holds + BS). Borowski had 45 saves and 8 blown saves (no holds), so he was 45 for 53 in protecting close leads, or 85%. Not bad.
The save is over-rated not so much because it’s totally useless. Facing the 3-4-5 hitters with a one-run lead on the road? You deserve a gold star! The problem with the save is that it ignores the other relievers, and assumes that the ninth inning is the most important inning of a game. The ninth inning is *psychologically* the most important inning of a game, but not always mathematically.
December 20th, 2007 at 10:35 pm
I think the fact that JoBo is our closer despite being arguably the worst arm out of the pen tells you all you need to know about how silly the “save” and role of the closer is. For eight innings, the manager plays the matchups and percentages, but for the ninth he just sits back, prays, and takes a snooze while the team goes on autopilot. Bizarre.
But that’s the way the game is played these days, so short of a Wedge-led revolution in baseball strategy, that’s the way the Indians will play it. JoBo’s the closer until he pitches himself out of the job, but I’d like to see the Tribe use Jensen Lewis in more close-and-late situations next year, and give him some save opps when JoBo can’t go. To me, he’s young and has got great closing potential (and if he continues to have success next year, let’s lock him into a long term deal before his value goes up). Next year is JoBo’s last year under contract, and I see virtually no scenario where he is brought back in 2009 so we need to see who else can do the job. The Tribe’s not going to shell out $15 mil a year for a closer, so the next closer is going to come in a trade (given the way the last few offseasons have gone, I’m not holding my breath) or internally (more likely).
December 20th, 2007 at 11:46 pm
I just don’t want Huston Street…
December 21st, 2007 at 12:02 am
Again PC, I’m not trying to put down your stats…if you plug relievers into a computer, out pops 33. That’s all fine and good…but I’m just not sure how you quantify the 7th or 8th inning mentally as important as the ninth.
The ninth inning IS different. It IS psychological. It’s probably NOT as big a difference as it sounds like I’m trying to make it. At the same time…it’s probably a BIGGER difference than you are trying to make it.
It’s like trying to make a two-footer for a birdie on the 2nd hole, as opposed to the 18th hole for the victory. The put on the second still gives you your stroke, and your victory if you have the score. The shot on the 18th, however, is much more difficult because of the impending doom, or glory, less than seconds away.
There is something sublimely different than the 7th inning bases loaded jam…compared to any time during the 9th inning of a close game.
I 100% agree that the ninth isn’t always the most important inning, and I’m not really trying to defend the save…as I agree that it’s overrated. At the same time, you just can’t look at it strictly by the numbers. I’ve seen pitchers lose complete control of their pitches when they move to closer. I’ve seen pitchers go from lights out, to lit up going to closer.
I’m probably just arguing to argue anyways…
It happens.
In a vacuum, I agree that any closer on the planet could have 33 saves. But that just doesn’t take into account a pitchers’ make-up.
December 21st, 2007 at 12:21 am
I want Betancourt to be a two-inning closer, and I want Borowski to stick around for mop-up work.
I am pretty sure I am alone on this, though.
December 21st, 2007 at 7:13 am
I’m one of the sickos who likes watching guys like Wickman and Jobo muddle through the ninth, invariably give up a solo HR with a two run lead, allow the tying run to steal second without even looking over, and still end up with the save.
But, James, you’re right, when you really break it down through all the bullpen arms, you can see we’ve got some good depth. It’s a good problem to have.
I expect Jensen Lewis to be the closer in 2010, if not 2009, if not 2008.
But Miller is an interesting idea. At this point in his career, though (which currently is WAY before the Prior/Wood days of injury #427) he might still have more value in a trade than anywhere else.
December 22nd, 2007 at 7:22 pm
What Borowski is still an Indian?!! As I have been saying forever, GET RID OF HIM!!!!!! I have gotten in so many arguments about that guy with fellow Tribesmen. What shall we argue: ERA? Too high! Hits? Too many! Saves? Miracles! Now lets get down to it and see how many runs he has given up each time he came in - period! Wow I didn’t realise that! Well, well all of you so - called Tribe fans, if you are truly paying attention to each game all season long, as we “True Fans” do; you’d of called for Borowski’s ouster a loooong time ago! The only people I found talking about how great Joe Borowski was: were our opponents. Imagine that! You think they had something there?!
the:
“Nite”
Owl
16
GOOOOOOOOOOOO TRIBE
December 26th, 2007 at 9:36 pm
Thank you, Christopher, for enlightening us about “True Fans”
January 13th, 2008 at 10:20 pm
Considering the Foulke situation last year the signing of Borowski worked out well for the Tribe, but that was last year. The development of the young arms in the pen has been amazing to see, that being said, a team with as much promise and as terrible of a pen as the Tribe had in ‘06 had to make some big changes. But after getting so close last year and having everyone back for ‘08 situation is very different. World Series or bust! I do not want to see Borowski on the mound in game 7 with a one run lead. He got by last year but the options the tribe have at the backend of the pen are too good to pass up. Lewis is a stud and has the stuff to be a dominating closer which would be nice to see on a regular basis for a long time to come.
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