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Top Five Tribe Prospects heading into 2008

The Cleveland Indians have become a model organization in building and re-building a minor league system.  Some fans would say to a fault, as Mark Shapiro has seemed to be the antithesis of his mentor, John Hart, in dealing away those prospects.  As Tribe Report has dealt with the numerous trade rumors over the offseason, it has become apparent that perhaps the Indians and their fans may have overrated the prospects.

Over the next three months, Tribe Report will begin to evaluate all of the Indians’ minor league talent, ultimately creating a top 15 list during the week leading up to opening day.  To start things off, let’s take a look at five of the Tribe’s top prospects, in no particular order, with their projected 2008 club.

Adam Miller–SP–AAA Buffalo/Cleveland:  Let’s get this out of the way, Adam Miller has been injury prone, and it’s a worry.  With that said, don’t let the injuries fool you…Adam Miller is a top 10 MLB prospect, and you’ll see him pitching for the Indians this year.  This 6′4″, 175 pound righty is not only the best prospect in the system, but more than likely the only current minor league pitcher that has ’sure-thing,’ top-of-the-rotation talent.  Miller struggled with the finger and elbow issues, that really hindered any sort of consistency this past season.  Still, as Miller’s velocity improves from his injuries, to go along with his wicked slider (Cleveland staple), unhittable splitter and an improving change up, you have a pitcher that should be challenging for a top 2 slot in the rotation in 2009.  This kid’s stuff is wicked good, and again, once his heat gets up to that 95 MPH level, you’ll see him become the prospect we know that he can be.

Jordan Brown–1B/OF–Buffalo:  Who is this Jordan Brown kid?  For many, he’s an unknown quantity, until now.  Brown proved to be one of the top prospects, if not THE top hitting prospect after winning the Eastern League MVP award.  Brown rolled out a .333 batting average, with 11 HR and 76 RBI.  He added 11 SB, and a .906 OPS.  He’s a solid fielder, and more than likely will make enough waves in Buffalo this year that he’ll be mentioned to fill in for the Tribe, should injury issues be raised.  Of course, his chances are better in the outfield, than at first base.  There’s not a lot to like about this kid’s ability, and work ethic.

Nick Weglarz–Outfield–Kinston:  If this is the first that you’ve heard of Nick Weglarz, start paying attention.  Cleveland drafted Weglarz a couple of years ago as a power-hitting, first-base prospect right out of high school in Canada.  The interesting thing about the pick, is I remember reading that he was a liability in the field, and would most-likely be a DH since he couldn’t play any other position than first base.  Of course, the reports read that he was a liability there as well.  Now, he’s an outfielder, and although he’s not going to confuse anyone as the next Sizemore, it goes to show you how good Weglarz has been at improving his play, and how little you should read into ‘experts’ reports.  As a 19-year-old, Weglarz was playing his first full-league season at Lake County, and he more than impressed.  Weglarz batted .274 (with a couple of games in Kinston) overall this year, with 24 homers, and 83 RBI.  He did strike out 130+ times, but his 80+ walks suggest that he’s  not necesarily a free swinger.  His OBP was a much better than average .393, to go along with a .498 slugging %, for an overall OPS of .892.  This kid is still learning the game, and proved that he does his homework.  If you look at his splits, he hit over .300 for the last half of the season at Lake County, including .333 in August.  He also is the rare player that as a lefty, hits southpaws better (.287) than righties (.273), although he does have more power against right-handed hitters.  He’s a long way from the majors, but might be the best raw hitter in the Tribe stable.

Jared Goedert–2B/MI–Kinston/Akron:  Goedert is a rarity in the Tribe organization at this stage, a solid 2B prospect (not counting Barfield at this point).  For those that don’t follow the minors, Goedert was as good as it got in ANY level in April and May.  At Lake County, he hit a robust .364, with 16 homers and 51 RBI.  His OBP was .475 (yeah, not a joke), and his slugging was .715 (yeah, also not a joke).  His OPS was 1.190 (don’t blink).  His numbers dived a bit when he went to Kinston, but don’t let the jump fool you.  He was playing with a bum shoulder for the second half of the year.  Should we expect THOSE first half kinds of numbers every year from Goedert?  Probably not, but I don’t think it would be a surprise to see Goedert approach them yearly, if healthy.  The added caveat to Goedert is that he can play 3B, and was considered a top prospect THERE until the Indians started focusing his attention at 2B during his second half run at Kinston.  Still, the ability to play both with only help the Indians down the line.  It’s not to far a stretch to see the Indians in 2009 with Asdrubal and Goedert playing side-by-side at either 2nd and short, or short and third.  At the end of the day, Geodert’s fielding overall probably precludes him from the top five list (even though I have him here), and he really needs to show the Indians’ brass he can hit two seasons in a row before he becomes a legit top five prospect.

Beau Mills–1B/3B–Kinston:  Admittedly, Mills didn’t have the year many thought he would, after being drafted first by the Indians last year.  Still, there is a lot to like about this kid, that places him in my top five to start this off.  His stats weren’t anything to shout out about this season, so I’m going to ignore them for now.  Let’s talk about what he DOES bring.  He’s a big kid, that most prognosticators felt would play more at first base this year, than his college position of third base.  Ultimately, third base was his predominant position.  I look for him to stay there, with the first base artery nearly closed up.  He’s not in the top five for his defense, however.  What Mills will ultimately bring to the Tribe is above-average power and high average.  Think of a more athletic Travis Hafner.  Yeah, I think he’ll be that good.

You’ll notice a few things about this list, right from the start:

1.  Adam Miller will more than likely be on the major league roster come April, so his time on the list may come.

2.  I didn’t count guys like Josh Barfield, who really aren’t prospects, but players-in-waiting.

3.  Only two players (Miller and Brown) are within shouting distance of the Bigs.

4.  Weglarz is a legit power prospect.

5.  Jared Goedert is absolutely a stretch in my top five…I just put him there so people would notice him.

6.  Beau Mills is purely a pick based on seeing him play, and potential.  He’s probably not in the top five yet, but will be soon.

I absolutely believe that guys like Trevor Crowe and Shin-Soo Choo are guys that are high on the list, but need to either continue a rebound, or prove to be healthy.  They’ll need to be watched.  The problem with the Indians organization, however, as it stands, is their ready-to-play prospects aren’t really there.  That’s to be expected, with most of those prospects (Peralta, Sizemore, Carmona, Lewis, etc.) already on the big league club.  At the end of the day, Cleveland has good prospects, but most of them are several years away.

Look for more prospects to be listed in the coming weeks and months, as Tribe Report begins nailing down its official top 15 list.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, December 26th, 2007 at 1:38 pm and is filed under Top 15 Prospects, Jared Goedert, Jordan Brown, John Hart, Nick Weglarz, Trevor Crowe, Beau Mills, Adam Miller, Shin-Soo Choo, Grady Sizemore, Jhonny Peralta, James Pete, Fausto Carmona, Mark Shapiro, Jensen Lewis, Josh Barfield. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.