Garrett Atkins hitting a homerun--photo courtesy of guano/flickr
Tribe may be targeting Matt Holliday, Garrett Atkins or Brian Fuentes
The rumors are getting ready to fly, with the Cleveland Indians’ offense serving dud after dud. According to FOXSports.com’s Senior Baseball Writer Ken Rosenthal thinks that could be changing soon, as the Colorado Rockies may be ready to deal some of their biggest pieces.
The Rockies find themselves 11 games under .500 after last season’s World Series appearance. Matt Holliday can become a free agent at the end of his two-year deal that is paying him $23 million (9.5 this year, and 13.5 next season). Garrett Atkins, who can’t become a free agent until after the 2010 season, is making $4.9 million this season. It’s believed that the Rockies won’t be able to afford either when the time comes. According to Rosenthal,
“Holliday probably would want a contract closer to the eight-year, $152.3 million deal that the Tigers recently awarded Miguel Cabrera.”
The Rockies have already stated that they won’t be able to compete with that kind of money that’s sure to come Holliday’s way, and are believed to be ready to offer a 6-year contract worth slightly under $100 million.
Colorado is likely looking to sign Atkins to a similar deal that Holliday signed before this season. Atkins is an arbitration-eligible player until after 2010. Colorado may look to deal Atkins if they don’t think that they can sign him either to a two-year deal to lock him up through his free agent year, or a longer term deal to avoid paying the higher price he’s sure to get once he does become a free agent.
Cleveland is in the market for a right-handed hitter, either a power hitting, corner outfielder, or an offensive minded infielder. It just so happens that Holliday and/or Atkins can provide both.
The best part about it is that the Indians and Rockies have a good relationship in dealing, as well as in sharing player information.
Colorado general manager Dan O’Dowd spent several years in the Indians’ organization, and was John Hart’s right-hand man before leaving for the Rockies vacant G.M. position in 1999. Mark Shapiro took over O’Dowd’s role as assistant general manager. There’s certainly a relationship between the two. O’Dowd and Shapiro have made a couple of deals over the years. The first was in 2001, when the Rockies sent Josh Bard and Jody Gerut to the Indians for Jacob Cruz. The other came before this season, with the Rockies sending Jamey Carroll’s contract to the Indians, who was looking for a veteran utility man.
O’Dowd and Shapiro have also done a bit of sharing information about players in all their dealings. O’Dowd has signed players off the waiver wire from Cleveland, and has signed a couple of rule V players, including Luis A. Gonzalez. Cleveland and Shapiro have as well, including Ron Belliard and Scott Elarton.
The Indians likely will focus their attention on 28-year-old Garrett Atkins. Atkins seems to be the perfect candidate for Mark Shapiro to trade for. Atkins would fill several needs for the Indians. He would give the Tribe their first cornerstone infielder since Jim Thome, and first legitimate third baseman since Travis Fryman’s solid year in 1999. He also would fill a need for the Indians in the lineup, providing the Tribe with a solid right-handed bat that they could insert into the three-hole. Atkins is a lifetime .305 hitter, and has hit 20+ homers over the past two seasons. There is no concern about what he would do outside of Colorado, since his numbers are nearly the same at home, as they are away. Atkins has played well in Cleveland, going a lifetime 5 for 13, with two runs and three RBI. O’Dowd may not be willing to deal Atkins just yet, instead preferring Holliday, who is the same age, and will be free to leave in a year-and-a-half.
Holliday, also 28, has even bigger numbers than Atkins, and has more pedigree for sure. The concern for Holliday has to be his road numbers. Unlike Atkins, whose power numbers are similar at home and away, Holliday is definitely better in the confines of Coors Field. His career splits have Holliday hitting 73 homers, with 263 RBI and a .426 OBP at home. On the road, he’s only hit 36 home runs, with 154 RBI and only a .336 OBP. His average is nearly 100 points higher at home. Cleveland does remain an offensive park, however, and Holliday is a .333 hitter in his 12 at bats. His numbers would surely be somewhere in between his splits. Is that good enough for what it might cost the Indians?
Colorado would probably be willing to deal both players, but that deal would be massive, and Shapiro isn’t going to guy his team for two players who probably won’t be here in four years. Cleveland will focus on one or the other, and more than likely get Colorado to throw in closer Brian Fuentes, who could help shore up the Tribe’s lackluster bullpen. Fuentes has been a solid closer option for Colorado for the past three years. He’s got a lifetime ERA of 3.48, and has 90 saves during his career. 86 of those saves have come 2005-2008. He could be exactly what the bullpen needs.
Rosenthal seems to think that Colorado would be willing take some high-ceiling guys from the low minors, since their upper minors seem to be stacked. This is ridiculous thinking, although the numbers make it look like it should make sense. Colorado will most likely be looking to get the offensive struggling American League into a bidding war for their two star players not yet signed to long-term deals. Don’t listen to the low-minors, gift-garbage that will be sold over the next month or so. Look for the Rockies to look to add a package of players similar to the one that Oakland got for Dan Haren. They have the ability to wait this out until the offseason, with Atkins arbitration-locked to the Rockies for two more seasons after this year, and Holliday signed to one more season. They have the caveat of saying they won’t make a deal until it suits them.
Look, I would love to sit here and tell you that the Indians could give up a combination of Michael Aubrey, Chuck Lofgren, Wes Hodges, David Huff or Jeremy Sowers to get one of those players. That’s a lot, but I think that Mark Shapiro would do that deal 100 times over. O’Dowd should be fired the day after that trade happens.
Instead, look for O’Dowd to focus on four players, Adam Miller, Sowers/Laffey, and Nick Weglarz. The first will be a must for O’Dowd, and that’s going to be Adam Miller. He’ll start there, and say the deal won’t go anywhere unless his name is included. He’ll then probably focus on Jeremy Sowers or Aaron Laffey, preferring Laffey at this stage. He’ll then go after Nick Weglarz, who is a low-level prospect who has left-field superstar written all over him. He is a young Matt Holliday, who can hit outside of Colorado. On top of that, O’Dowd will probably target Franklin Gutierrez or Ben Francisco, Andy Marte, Asdrubal Cabrera and maybe an Aubrey as a throw in. No, I don’t think they’re going to ask for them all, but I would bet that Miller, Sowers/Laffey and Weglarz are at the top, with two of the others a necessity.
I don’t think the Indians make that trade. My bet is that Cleveland will either deal Miller, or Laffey and Sowers. The ceiling on Miller is much higher, and even with injury issues, could become an ace. Laffey and Sowers will be solid #2’s or #3’s for years to come. They are obviously more of a sure thing right now, but would be a tremendous value to anyone who gets them. Both are young, and could anchor the Rockies staff for years. I’m sure Cleveland would gladly give up Francisco and/or Gutierrez, and any of those other guys with the exception of Weglarz.
My big question here is whether or not the players that Cleveland offers to the Rockies, if this should happen, will be enough, or are valued very highly by Dan O’Dowd. O’Dowd certainly doesn’t know as much about these guys as previous players he’s wanted from the Indians, since they were all signed after he left. At the same time, if there’s any GM who trusts the Indians’ minor leagues, it’s O’Dowd, who helped build them after coming over with Hart from Baltimore.
At the end of the day, Cleveland needs to add a stick, and these two guys fit their needs. If they don’t make a deal for a guy of these two’s caliber, then you will have to question how badly Shapiro wants to gamble to win a World Series title. I don’t see this team being 100% complete yet. They have the pitching, but lack a couple of bats, and some bullpen help, before the Indians can win it all.
They will have to give to get. Fortunately, what they’d be getting in this deal, would be the value they need to go the distance.
This entry was posted
on Sunday, May 18th, 2008 at 10:58 am and is filed under John Hart, Coors Field, Michael Aubrey, Travis Fryman, Chuck Lofgren, Dan O'Dowd, Adam Miller, Scott Elarton, Progressive Field, Wes Hodges, David Huff, Ron Belliard, Luis A. Gonzalez, Ken Rosenthal, Jacob Cruz, Mark Shapiro, Jamey Carroll, Jody Gerut, Matt Holliday, Jeremy Sowers, Miguel Cabrera, Garrett Atkins, Andy Marte, Cleveland Indians, Dan Haren, Brian Fuentes, Asdrubal Cabrera, Ben Francisco, Aaron Laffey, Franklin Gutierrez, Josh Bard, Jim Thome, Colorado Rockies.
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47 Responses to “Tribe may be targeting Matt Holliday, Garrett Atkins or Brian Fuentes”
May 18th, 2008 at 2:38 pm
we NEED matt holliday but we cant give up Asdrubal. what about barfield?
May 18th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
Matt Holliday is going to cost us a couple of things we don’t want to give up, and a couple of things we would hesitate to give up.
It’s the nature of the beast.
I’d rather have Atkins…
May 18th, 2008 at 6:21 pm
I’d rather pass. Coors Field enhances offense to such an extent that almost every hitter is grossly overrated and almost every pitcher is incredibly unappreciated.
Atkins has 1,030 at-bats away from Coors field– roughly two seasons– and here’s what his career totals translate to
AB R H D T HR RBI W K BA OBP SLG OPS
515 68 142 31 0 19 84 53 85 .277 .345 .448 .793
Not a bad player (this is about 140 games played), but not anyone you strip the farm clean for. To put the .793 OPS into perspective, last year’s starting 3B, Casey Blake, posted a .776 OPS– Jhonny Peralta was .771. At 28, you figure he’s done pretty much all the blossoming he’s going to.
Holliday’s home/road split is even more pronounced– here’s what his road stats translate to:
AB R H D T HR RBI W K BA OBP SLG OPS
571 80 156 36 4 18 77 48 169 .274 .336 .444 .780
A welcome sight indeed for eyes accustomed to the stat lines of Jason Michaels and Trot Nixon. But not the all-world player when you strip away the 1.089 OPS in the thin air of his home park. And certainly not worth the all-world salary.
If anyone doesn’t believe that a home park can affect offense that much, check out the career of Larry Walker. He was a good player in Montreal– 16-23 homers and an average of .265 to .322 over five years. He gets to Colorado and he hits 35+ homers with a batting average over .350
Fuentes might be one of the few pitchers in Rockies’ history who actually pitches better at home than away. His career ERA in Coors is 3.25– and it’s 3.74 away. Since he’s 33, he’s not real exciting.
I’m pretty sure you’re correct about what it would take to get one of these guys, James. Actually, I’m pretty sure that O’Dowd would insist on Miller. The statistical research shows that the players least affected by the thin air are the guys who throw really, really hard. The guys who struggle most are finesse pitchers who rely on their breaking balls. (The ball just doesn’t break as much).
If he takes Laffey or Sowers, they’re likely to wind up pitching like Darryl Kile or Mike Hampton. Miller would probably pick up a few MPH in Coors.
I guess I should be happy that the Indians are looking at solutions but this would be a really risky one. The possibility of a Josh Barfield scenario– where the guy also struggles with the AL style of pitching (fewer fastballs thrown, and many more breaking pitches used in ‘hitters counts’) would be very high.
May 18th, 2008 at 7:06 pm
holliday hits better off of curves than he does off of fastballs though. hes hitting 385 off of curveballs right now as compared to his 329 off fastballs. last year he hit almost 400 off of curves so maybe it could be a good thing
May 18th, 2008 at 11:50 pm
Atkins is one of the best pure hitters in the game. He can hit in any park. Coors Field is not the park it used to be when Walker played there … it is still a hitters’ park with the big gaps but the humidor has cut home runs way down. Atkins actually has more career home runs on the road than at home. This year, he is batting .347 with 5 home runs and 17 RBI on the road. Last season, he had 58 road RBI which was the 4th best mark in the NL and he hit 15 of his 25 home runs on the road. Over the past 3 seasons (his first 3 seasons in the bigs), he has 144 road RBI which is 13th in the NL. In 2006, he had a .313 road batting average which was tied for 9th in the NL.
May 19th, 2008 at 8:04 am
Matt, I haven’t seen the data you’re pointing to. Is there a site I can visit to have a look at it? I still would be reluctant to get Holliday, merely because the Indians really can’t afford a Miguel Cabrera-type deal.
Mario, you’re quite right about the Coors park effect being smaller now. The Rockies have normalized conditions to some degree. But Coors is still by far the best place in baseball to hit.
I cited Larry Walker because he had clearly established his level of ability before joining Colorado. That seemed fairer than picking Kaz Matsui or Willy Taveras, but if you have a better comp, cite him..
Also, no offense intended, but you’re cherry-picking a bit. You point to his 2006 road batting average, but you don’t mention that:
1. He hit .346 at home– 32 points higher– that year.
2. In 2007, he hit .349 at home and .254 on the road.
3. In 2005, it was .338 at home and .238 on the road.
For stuff like this, I prefer career totals. It’s not unusual for a player who has a pronounced tendency to have one year with little or no advantage– or even a reverse split. The guy usually goes back to normal next year, as Atkins has done
I’m not saying that Garrett Atkins isn’t a good player, or that he wouldn’t help Cleveland. I just think it’s a bad idea to pay for David Wright’s stat line if you’re likely to get Casey Blake’s.
Dan O’Dowd is going to want as much as he can get, and some GM is likely to ignore the numbers and give it to him. Since the Indians don’t have tons of talent to spare, it would be a bad idea to overpay.
If I were going to pick up a short-term player, I’d be more likely to pursue the “Sabathia-Wright” deal sometimes kicked around on this site.
May 19th, 2008 at 9:16 am
I’m with Geoff on this one. We’ve got to trade CC when we can get something for him.
Also, I like Atkins but wouldn’t give up the farm (so to speak) for him. Sowers rather than Laffey. Not Adam Miller. Barfield or A-Cab. Throw in a spare piece if necessary (Blake, Dellucci, Crowe, Snyder, etc.).
Whatever we do, if Grady doesn’t hit 20-30 points higher AND Pronk doesn’t come back, we’re toast anyway. That’s why I’d trade CC now.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:14 am
If the Indians deal from surplus pitching it must be Sabathia or Miller. You can’t deal surplus arms and then have CC and Byrd leave at the end of the year. That makes you short next year. If you have capable replacements in Laffey and Sowers, you need to keep them for years to come. I say Miller can go because I’m not convinced he’ll ever be healthy enough to stick.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:15 am
My guess is that you could get a TON for Lee right now. In all reality, he’s not much different than Laffey, except that Laffey keeps the ball on the ground more.
May 19th, 2008 at 2:05 pm
hey geoff espn has those stats if u click on scouting on the player page. you have to be an ESPN insider though. his stats from last year arent up anymore but i sorta remember them cuz holliday is my only favorite player who is not an indian
May 19th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
Matt: That’s why I haven’t seen them– I don’t pay for sportswriting. I’m thinking about buying access to Bill James, but most of the guys at ESPN don’t strike me as being worth the money.
Dave, I don’t think any team is toast in this year’s AL Central. The Tigers have collapsed, the Twins and Royals are struggling to rebuild and the White Sox are highly erratic. The odds that the AL Central can be had for 85 wins are growing.
The Indians couldn’t advance if they play like they are now… But if they can put it together down the stretch, strong pitching and timely hits from a few veterans can take you places, as the 2006 Cards showed.
I’m not saying I would trade Sabathia. I just said I’d move him before I sent a raft of prospects to rent some bats that are just pretty good and might leave if they don’t get the money they believe they deserve.
The reason to trade Sabathia is that you don’t know if he’s gonna stay. Plus, his reputation can bring you more than a group of prospects– even if they collectively have a higher ceiling. At this point, for example, the Yankees are kicking themselves for not getting Johan Santana and would probably let a club defoliate their farm system in exchange for a reliable starter
I don’t think it’ll happen, because the Indians believe they can re-sign him. Barry Zito is showing why it is unwise to take top dollar over a good situation. The Giants’ response to his struggles is also an argument to stay where you’re known and loved. They’re not treating him like a family member in trouble (as the Indians did with Sabathia a month ago), but as a mercenary who’s reneging on his contract.
Whether stuff like that will induce Sabathia to stay in Cleveland– or whether it’s self-deception– isn’t something I’m prepared to guess at. He isn’t represented by an agent (Jeff Moorad, Arn Tellem, Scott Boras) who always moves his client for to dollar, but I usually don’t like to bet on a player’s loyalty. That said…
Tim, I’d be shocked if Byrd went anywhere. He likes it here and they love him. A dispute on whether he should get a one or two-year deal– or how much the guaranteed money should be– might be a sticking point. But he’d only go to a team with a real chance at the playoffs… and the Indians are so good at structuring deals that I don’t see it happening.
I don’t know what Lee would bring. To me, he’s the same guy he was a year ago– you know he can pitch well, but you never know when or for how long he will. I can’t see why most GMs wouldn’t think the same thing, but they often do.
As for the other guys, I’d have to be overwhelmed before I let Laffey or Cabrera go, and I’d be very reluctant to lose Franklin Gutierrez, despite his struggles with off-speed pitches. The only other person I’d really balk at would be Nick Weiglarz, although Chuck Lofgren has promise.
Like you, I wonder how successful Miller will be, given his injury history. If he could stay healthy, I’d like him a lot more.
May 19th, 2008 at 6:32 pm
According to Baseball Prospectus, Progressive Field has played as a poor offensive park for several years–I believe it rates a 0.96 where a 1.00 represents a neutral offensive park.
May 20th, 2008 at 7:49 am
This is when the G.M. earns his salary. Is he able to pull off a fair deal (if not a favorable one) or does he panic and allow the farm system to get raped? I’d rather see no deal than a bad deal. It wasn’t very long ago that Tiger fans were ready to start printing world series tickets after the acquisitions of Cabrera, Willis and Renteria. As such, we should be mindful that there are no “sure things” or “magic bullets”. If we give away too much and Holliday or Atkins disappoint, it could set the franchise back for 3 years or more. Just don’t talk as if a deal with the Rockies is a guarantee of anything.
May 20th, 2008 at 7:50 am
As an ex-pat Clevelander living in AZ I’ve seen both these guys and I like the Atkins solution. Holliday is just now comming into his own as a monster MVP caliber player - I can’t see Shapiro trading CC or any combo for another 100+ mil problem in ‘09. Atkins on the other hand is an upgrade on the defensive and despite the road split hair splitting I’ve been reading I think he’d be a great addition. Chad Tracy in AZ is probably expendible and might even make a better fit because the Dbacks GM has already pulled the trigger on his big deal with Haren - the teams prospering - and he would be more willing to look to restock at the double/triple A level.
But. The Tribe has got to make a move. They have gotten execellent pitching - with the occational bullpen laps - and the offense is pathetic. I had to say this but I don’t think Hafner is ever comming back. Blake, Hafner, Peralta and even Grady are striking out way to much.
Fortunatley, the Tigers have flopped and like Beckman noted - nobody else is dominating.
I have loved what Laffy has shown at the big leauge level, and Lee’s return has been fantastic. I don’t understand the clinging to Miller as such an uptick because he’s ALWAYS had injury issues!
The point is that Shapiro is in the most enviable postion of any GM out there who has to make a move. We have a surpuls of pitching - plus a deep bench - nobody has even mentioned Soo - who put up excellent numbers when he got a shot - Barfield, Marte, BLAKE (I wouldn’t be surprised - he’s highly respected for his versitility).
I hope the Tribe does pull the trigger on a blockbuster because this team needs a major shake up.
With a healthy Westbrook and the way Lee is going plus the signs Laffy has shown - I wouldn’t be surprised if CC is traded - it would be maximum benefit to do so now.
One thing is clear. If this team as it’s present’y assembled had just barely hit .250 and a little better situationally - we would be closer to the Red Sox and easily 5 games up in the Central.
Instead there isn’t any fire on this club right now and they have squandered outstanding pitching and fallen into medocrity.
It would be criminal if Shapiro sat back - when he has such a strong hand to deal.
May 20th, 2008 at 11:19 am
Thinking back to, I believe, 2001 when they had all of those pitching injuries, the Tribe dealt away Richie Sexson for Wickman, Steve Woodard and was it Ben MacDonald? They panicked and caved to public outcry to “do something.”
That was a poor bit of decision making because they had so many injuries and sold the farm to try to overcome them.
This is different because the problem lies within the structure of the team and what players they have. They also need to take advantage of the strong pitching they have this year with CC still here — something needs to be done in this situation whereas in 2001 they should’ve just road out the storm because of the ridiculous amount of injuries.
May 20th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
As always, it depends on who we’d give up … but all three would be great improvements for team. Let’s see if Shapiro can work something out. I would guess that Holliday is unrealistic, but maybe we can work something out with Atkins and/or Fuentes.
May 20th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
I used to play Monopoly with a guy like Shapiro– even looked like him a bit. Never wanted to make a deal if there were any property tiles left on the board– even the light blues and purples.
And, once everything was off, it was still nigh-impossible, because he could always see the negatives more easily than the positives. Reds got landed on more than Yellows, so he didn’t like to trade those away– but the Yellows brought more rent, so he wasn’t real wild on giving them up, either.
What usually happened was that he–and the person who had to trade with him– lost because the other 2-3 guys would do a deal and get just enough to throttle everyone else.
It is nothing short of amazing that this team has five proven starters (counting Westbrook), three hot prospects (Laffey, Sowers, Miller), two guys no worse than players in some rotations (Scott Elarton, Jason Stanford), and even an excellent minor-league starter who was shifted to the bullpen (Rafael Perez; Jensen Lewis was not successful)… but they haven’t been able to make a trade.
I was talking with him about this over lunch and he said “What happens if you make a bad deal?” Yeah, but what about the costs of not making a trade?
One option, which I outlined earlier, is they do nothing, the players recover (as they have from every slow start except in 2006), they win the division and who knows what happens next.
If they don’t act, and things don’t improve, Cleveland might end up with three players (Garko, Hafner, Blake) who are virtually untradeable. If Barfield spends a season in Buffalo hitting .255, he’ll be as tarnished a prospect as Brandon Phillips or Andy Marte. Peralta will be Cliff Lee with a bat– you know he can help you, but the question in any given year is “Will he?”
A year from now, Gutierrez, Cabrera and Shoppach still aren’t established and they aren’t as attractive as they were. That’s also true, if their ERAs rise into the 4’s or high 3’s, of Lewis and Perez. Teams will invent reasons not to want Sowers.
And we know Lee won’t stay unhittable forever. If he levels off under 4.00, no big deal. But if he’s in the 4’s or 5’s, his value drops accordingly.
A business can wreck itself by moving too quickly, or making a panic decision. But it can be just as dangerous not to respond. On Monday, the Padres announced that they’re going to make changes to try to recover. The Tigers are pondering various moves. The Phillies and Mets are getting itchy. And we know the Yankees will freak at some point.
If several teams are bidding, the cost of players rises sharply. And being smart shoppers– not wanting to overpay– decreases the chance of landing someone.
I can’t help thinking of the parallel to the Cavs– who also stood pat and then found it very difficult to land any of the premium guys when teams began holding fire sales.
Obviously it would be bad to strip the roster to end up with Jason Kidd (who was over the hill)– but getting players late and struggling to fit them in (as Danny Ferry did) is a risk of a different sort. The operating assumption– that a new player will just fit right in– is often not true. Making a July trade– and then watching the acquisition struggle for six weeks– won’t be very helpful if some other team in the division puts things together first.
I’m sure I’d be somewhat cautious if the rest of my professional life depended on the result of a trade– but I have the strong impression that the more they wait, the less likely this season is to end well.
May 21st, 2008 at 11:53 am
Man, even Grady’s stinkin’ it up. These guys can’t hit.
May 21st, 2008 at 9:42 pm
im getting real tired of watching this offense (or lack thereof). we gotta do something soon
May 22nd, 2008 at 7:24 am
They stink.
Geoff, were you actually speaking to Mark Shapiro or to your Monopoly friend over lunch?
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:26 am
The friend I used to play Monopoly with. Except for the few cases where we have been at the same banquet (United Way), I have never had lunch with Mark Shapiro.
May 22nd, 2008 at 8:24 pm
alright this is getting rediculous i cant even watch this offense any more. we gotta do something big i dont even care what. put sabathia in left to get his bat in the lineup i dont care
May 23rd, 2008 at 1:48 am
Geoff, that monopoly story likening your friend to Shapiro was nothing short of brilliant.
May 23rd, 2008 at 9:50 am
Things are so bad, james stopped writing about it. what a sad day. cheer up, james!
May 23rd, 2008 at 1:34 pm
Let’s see here . . .
2004, slow start, just not very good - bad season
2005, slow start, make run at Twins, falter at end - good season
2006, pretty much stink from beginning - bad season
2007, slow start, get hot late, lose 3 in row to Sox - good season
2008, slow start, stinking again, can’t hit except in bunches . . .
anyone see a disturbing pattern here?
1) This team is equal to a team of relief pitchers, good one year, bad the next.
2) Eric Wedge’s teams almost always start out slowly
3) This particular team can’t hit, has been carried by good starting pitching and heavily relies on power hitting (although they have very little of it).
4) This “all or nothing” offense has existed over the duration, it has just been hidden by strong runs by Victor (last year) and Pronk (2005-2006) that carried this team offensively.
5) It’s a bad team, positionally, that really hits poorly in intelligent “baseball” situations - like striking out 5 of 6 at bats with a runner on third base.
That’s all I’ve got today, this losing streak sure is fun, eh boys? Maybe it’ll spur on a CC move.
May 23rd, 2008 at 1:35 pm
Oh, and concerning the relief pitcher angle . . . can’t wait ’til NEXT YEAR!
May 28th, 2008 at 9:45 am
Pluto just wrote an interesting article in the Plain Dealer about putting Hafner on the DL. I think that sounds like the rights move to make because something is clearly wrong, and if nothing is physically wrong, maybe some time off during the year to think is what he needs. Something needs to be done with him because right now all he is is a very expensive wasted roster spot.
Pluto also mentions if they do that they should give Marte a shot at third again to see what he can do and rotate Blake in to the first base/outfield mix. This is also an interesting idea because it would be giving marte the shot we never gave brandon phillips. Knowing our luck Marte won’t be close to Phillips, but at least we would be giving it one last shot.
Thoughts?
May 28th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
Tim,
this every other year theory about the bullpen is turning out to be brilliant. Good work and damn you at the same time.
May 28th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
Andrew, let me quote a column from Cleveland.com:
“Hafner, mired in a prolonged hitting slump over two seasons, told the media before this afternoon’s game against the Chicago White Sox at Progressive Field that he has been receiving treatment for a sore right shoulder, but did not blame that nagging injury for his hitting woes…
“The shoulder problem has flared up twice this season, the first when the Indians visited Minnesota on April 18. He received a cortisone shot then and had another on Tuesday.”
Players don’t consume cortisone the way Hugh Laurie pops Vicodin on TV. It’s given for one of two reasons:
1. You have absolutely mind-numbing pain– you can’t move the joint without screaming.
2. You’ve been feeling discomfort for a long time, and you finally ask the doctor to make it go away.
Possibility #1 suggests that something has finally broken down– something that will need to be repaired (assuming it can be done)– in the last 30 days.
Possibility #2 might be worse– it means that Hafner has been feeling pain for who knows how long, and it finally wore down a guy with the pain threshhold of a rhino.
And if anyone doubts Hafner’s desire to play (or whether his IQ is in triple digits), this quote demonstrates what we’re dealing with:
“Optimistically, I’ll feel good Friday and get things going,” he said.
Realistically, the normal procedure for cortisone is 6-8 days of rest, to let the joint heal. If you’re in the playoffs, you might take a day or two off.
With a serious injury, you take 1-2 months– rest, followed by therapy to try to build up the strength.
I think we can pretty much guess when this started now. In April, 2007, Hafner hit .338, with his customary 1.021 OPS. Actually, that was down from .390 and 1.127 on April 23.
Hafner hit .228 in May of ‘07 (OPS 849) and then .218 (OPS .702) in June. To save everyone the trouble of looking it up, he signed his extension on July 12, 2007.
There was some question about why Hafner decided to sign in mid-year, and I think we have our answer. He wasn’t hitting, he told his agent his shoulder was killing him, and the agent said “Jeepers, man– let’s get you signed now.”
Whether you want to kick Hafner for that, blame the agent for negotiating in bad faith or point the finger at the Indians for not guessing what was happening– or some combination of the three– is up to you.
I’d go with a mixture of the latter two, simply because Hafner has never struck me as Barry Bonds. He’s an amiable oaf who watches wrestling, plays video games and is used to playing while hurt. If he’s a donkey, I’ve always imagined him as Nestor The Long-Eared Donkey (from the Christmas specials), rather than the mean donkeys in Pinocchio (who kick boys who try to ride them and refuse to work unless they’re whipped).
As to why he didn’t fess up? Very few guys admit that they’re hurt, because coaches tell them that real men don’t give in to pain. (And because fans pillory them for asking out of games.)
Doesn’t change the next step: Shut the big donkey down until you figure out exactly what is wrong and precisely what is causing it. Since they’re paying him $57 big ones, they need to find a way to get him as healthy as they can, so he can try to earn it.
The good news– maybe– is that if there is something physically wrong, there is at least a chance of fixing it. Thank God he doesn’t play for the Browns– at least we don’t have to worry about the possibility of a Staph infection.
May 29th, 2008 at 10:14 am
I think it is pretty obvious that Hafner has been feeling pain in his arm for quite some time. Whether this pain in his shoulder is new, or how new, is a different matter, but he has always had some sort of arm problems that have kept him from trying to play first consistently (that and as Geoff pointed out he is an oaf). He needs a DL stint, and if necessary surgery. If he gets some sort of procedure done now, we can hope that he might be able to recover by the stretch run and/or playoffs (assuming its not a major procedure thats necessary).
The fact is we are not winning with him in our lineup, and he isnt hitting, so why not try something new to make sure he gets back to the Pronk he used to be.
May 29th, 2008 at 3:03 pm
i dont know if time on the DL will do much for pronk. He had the whole offseason to rest his shoulder and if that was not enough time, the DL wont be either. I think if his problems are injury based, surgery is the only solution
May 29th, 2008 at 5:46 pm
i’m inclined to agree with geoff in this forum — mostly because he does a ton of research and let’s the stats do the talking. in my opinion, that’s the most sound way to run a ball club (or business) — and to comment on each.
however, i’m also inclined to believe that making a move for the sake of making a move is never a good option.
will making a move for any (or all) of the players mentioned above take every bat hitting below .250 for the last 30 days out of the lineup?
nope. the indians have eight holes in their lineup right now (sorry, vmart, you’re paid to catch AND get extra-base hits), and a trade might (temporarily) fill two of those holes. might.
will making a move prove to be the turnicate the bullpen needs? maybe. but why not simply waive some of the offending batting-practice throwers and bring up some dudes who can at least hang their hat on the fact that major leaguers haven’t seen them just yet?
jorge julio was casualty no. 1 in what i expect will be a methodical restructuring of the ‘pen.
my point is, this team is very nearly the team that won 96 games last year. arguably, the starting pitching is BETTER than it was last year. the main problem (news flash) is that every indian except francisco is hitting below his career average by a long shot. (and if pitchers start making adjustments on the freshly minted francisco, the lineup’s collapse could be complete.)
however, if these guys start hitting to their career averages, good things will happen (wins).
May 29th, 2008 at 11:11 pm
Time on the DL is a necessary first step. It lets you give the roster spot to someone else, while you try to figure out what the problem is and how– or if– you can fix it.
I do not know the policies and procedures of the Indians’ training and sports medicine departments. I’d like to think that Hafner received a full physical, with every scan known to man, before he signed the extension.
But I have been stunned by the number of seemingly-obvious things that teams don’t do. For example, every year, you read about 2-3 athletes who’ve been diagnosed as diabetics after they fell ill.
Since that can be tested (both for confirmation and risk factors) by collecting one vial of blood (which can also test for about five other things a team might want to know) you’d think that’d be done annually, right? Maybe the very first thing you do when the players report– and the last thing you do before they leave?
Aside from catching something, it would give you an accurate baseline on weight, body fat, etc…so you can guess how many Twinkies C.C. Sabathia ate over the winter or during the year. But teams don’t do much of it– and it’s not entirely the fault of the union, either.
Assuming it wasn’t done, the first step is to treat Hafner like a piece of checked baggage that is ticking and see what can be found. I hate to be a downer, Matt, but my guess is that a problem that has required monthly injections of cortisone to keep Hafner over the Mendoza Line is probably a 90-120 day fix.
As to Joe’s point, the Indians have suddenly and abruptly snapped out of a self-induced coma (bullpen, offense or both) several times in the Wedge era. In many cases, things were just as black as they seen now.
That said, when they were doing it, they were a young team trying to find themselves– and the reversal usually occurred as some young players blossomed. This is a veteran team now, and it’s much less likely that they will regain form.
Also, there were frequently personnel changes– getting bad players out of the lineup and getting new players in. There aren’t any unheralded hitters in the system likely to step in and shine.
It could happen… and you can fill in the Mike Meyers punchline.
May 30th, 2008 at 1:26 pm
Kudo’s and a breath of logic to Beckman on the Pronk report. It’s a relief to get some hope that Hafner can come alive again. But there are all kinds of blaring red alerts here that maybe I have overrated Wedge and under appreicated the amiable oaf’s struggles.
Last year Wedge earned his place atop the managerial heap with asstute moves all season long. But now this is also his mature team - even though Cabrrera and Garko as well as the newly minted Franscisco and Gutierrez hardly qualify as veterans with one post season run.
The fact is Wedge is comming off like a panicky crank. His Dellucci/Michaels platoon - which was very effective last season - has already imploded.
Worse, he may have trashed this bullpen with his skittish demands when shuffling - turning Betancourt & Perez into a much less dynamic duo - and failing to step up and make a choice with Kobayashi.
I hoped that an early DL for Borowski would prove a god send to solidify what was a glaring weakness despite the saves in ‘07, but instead it’s been a minor disaster salvaged only by strong starters.
Lets set aside the Jensen Lewis story - for the sake that a stint in the minors may yet rescue it.
Rightly or wrongly when a team with such promise flounders like this one has it is squarely on the shoulders of the manager and the GM - esspecially when that GM conspicuously stood pat in the off season.
Sure it is early, but after what Cinci did to us, and the way the White Sox have pushed us arround, it is thin ice in June folks.
Right now Pronk may need surgery but Wedge needs a prosthesis! He isn’t shouldering squat. He has blown his biggest challenge of the season with the bull pen and gets barely a D on mixing and matching to spark some big O.
The least we should expect is feeding us dissapointed fans the hitting coach’s head on a plate; since nobody but VMart has come within a ten foot pole of connecting at home plate with any consistency.
As for Shapiro - he has now entered the John Hart realm as far as expectations. Having rebuilt this franchise with Wedge at the helm it’s time for him to earn his salt.
Jettisoning Michaels hardly offsets that Dellucci is living down to the low regard most teams held him in, despite his clubhouse manner.
This team put together a 7-3 run beginning to resemble what we expected only to turn around 180 with a pathetic waste of outstanding quality starts - batting what 1.70 in situational hitting? 2-3 games blown with shoddy defence? It’s painful.
If that isn’t immediately rectified and this team goes into the All-Star break a sub-.500 club - then all the prior questions I believed Wedge answered last season will re-emerge.
Wedge is yet in this early season warranted a bit of the jitters. This is his first real season when his team is expected to win. It follows coming within a game of taking the ‘07 crew to a Series appearance.
But there is no place to go and no more excuses. His outbursts with the media are a bad sign that he is finding it difficult to handle the heat. Browbeating and blowhard comments are not proving fruitful.
If he hasn’t chewed off Shapiro’s ear on the necessity to make a move there will be no joy in Cleveberg this year.
And he will have sentenced himself to baseball oblivion - he can look Wally Backmen up in Latin America for a drinking buddy - because he won’t be managing in a major league uniform.
Sorry to be blunt. I can’t scream loud enough that I believed all along Shapiro stood pat to time the market for a shrewd deal prior to the trading deadline.
But the Tribe is tanking and now is the time for action.
The ‘making a move for the sake of…’ argument is bunk. I’ll say it again as I have said it before - there isn’t a GM out that who has as strong a hand with movable parts as this GM.
Their luck has run out - because nobody has really taken a grip in the division. But don’t kid yourself - the Tigers are not going to be this bad all year - and the Sox and the Twinkies are no roll overs.
They can’t rely on others stumbling anymore.
May 30th, 2008 at 7:10 pm
I’ve got family arriving as I speak, but a couple of comments:
1.Wedge hasn’t had any outbursts– the blast at Betancourt and the words about the offense were composed in advance for delivery when (or if) it became necessary. If you get to see a video of him, watch his eyes– there’s no animation or overflowing emotion in them, like Ozzie Guillen or Jim Leyland has.
Also, when a guy is blowing his stack, he doesn’t tick off a list of points in order and say things like “as I referred to earlier”, as Wedge did about Betancourt.
As to why– Wedge seems to have a progression when a player has a problem, which is something like:
A. He’ll have the coach say it privately to the player.
B. He’ll say it privately to the player.
C. He’ll let the coach say it to the player in front of other players.
D. He’ll call the guy on it in front of the other players.
E. He’ll say it generally to the media (”we need to focus on finishing off at-bats”)
F. He’ll go into specifics with the media, mentioning a player by name and saying exactly what he thinks is wrong.
G. The guy disappears– or his playing time does.
I find this hard to believe, but everything I’m seeing suggests that Betancourt is on his last life– that if he doesn’t start throwing the ball inside, something is going to happen to him.
2. I have absolutely no idea what Wedge felt about the decision to stand pat over the winter. I am guessing that he wanted to make some moves to improve the team, but only because all managers always want that.
Usually stuff leaks when a guy comes out of a closed-door meeting feeling like the other people didn’t really pay attention to what he said– he wants to repeat what he said to a sympathetic listener, so he can get emotional reinforcement by having the guy agree with him.
Wedge seems to have absolutely no need to do that. I don’t know if he is absolutely certain that he is right– and does not need to have people tell him he is– or if he only does that with people that he is certain will never repeat anything.
I think it’s the latter, because the coaches who’ve left the team quickest are the guys who talk to the press. Mike Brown, who loved to hold court, didn’t make it through spring training.
3. The failure to act isn’t because nobody wants to do anything. It’s because Mark Shapiro doesn’t like to make a decision until everyone pretty much agrees, and there is still no consensus about what is best. They’re only taking steps that no one expresses a strong objection to (like “Jorge Julio sucks and let’s dump him”).
The Hafner DL move was a good example. They could have shut him down for a long time, but telling the other hitters “You’ll have to do this by yourself, guys” arguably puts pressure on them.
They could have shut him down for 15 days, but then people wonder if he’ll ever be back– if you just didn’t do that as a prelude to shutting him down, by transferring him to another list.
Putting him (as they did) on the 15-day list, but back-dating to the point where he’ll only be out (I think) 7 days sounds temporary, and it opens a spot for Shin-Soo Choo. Plus, you can always shut him down later.
I don’t think nibbling at options will solve things, either– I think, by the time everyone agrees that drastic steps are required, it is likely to be too late. (I’d figure the next step is to send Mike Aubrey down, because he’s the least controversial choice.)
But this is how this organization makes decisions, and given their track record (two 90+ win seasons in three years, they tore down a 90-win team to bare metal and rebuilt with no quick-fixes in five years), they have a lot of confidence in how they do things.
They’re not likely to alter their methods until they see proof that they need to– and the proof would probably need to be a mediocre season in 2008.
June 5th, 2008 at 8:28 am
Anybody know where these guys disappeared to? Another blog perhaps? I enjoyed the write-ups…..
June 5th, 2008 at 2:32 pm
yeah, I enjoyed them too. i think it’s just hard to write about such a bad team night in and night out. They’ve been smacking the ball the last few games though. Unfortunately, it may just be the result of some pathetic Texas pitching. One can hope it will at least give them some confidence and momentum.
June 5th, 2008 at 10:08 pm
I don’t know where James is. Frustration about the team (he thought they were going to be much better than they were last year), coupled with the growing realization that the front office wasn’t going to do anything substantive to fix it, drove him away.
Of course, a lot of moderators quit MVN very abruptly, giving very little or no explanation why. It might have nothing to do with the team and something to do with the site. Or he might just have been run over by a bus.
After about a week with no posts, I wrote to the e-mail address for people who wanted to write and volunteered to post some things, suggesting that they look at some of my comments as a sample of what I could do..
I admitted that my availability varies– that I couldn’t guarantee that I could post every day for the rest of the year (like James had). But I thought I was better than nothing.
After a week, when they didn’t answer– not “No thanks”, but no response– I figured I had better things to do than try to get the number of comments on Ken Rosenthal’s silly speculations into triple digits.
I check back every few days, to see if MVN is going to keep their Mark Shapiro impression up, and if this site ever goes live again, I might be back.
If not, Res Ipsa Loquitor– they still can’t hit (unless it’s against the worst staff in baseball), can’t field and are now lowing the ability to pitch. I’m not sure who’ll win the AL Central (I still like the Twins over Chicago), but I know who won’t do it.
June 6th, 2008 at 7:16 am
I would anticipate an update on the site situation soon.
Sorry, but I can’t say any more than that right now, other than to ask for a little patience. (Yes, I know. The way this season is going, most of us don’t have a whole lot of patience left over for anything…)
June 6th, 2008 at 10:41 pm
So, gentlemen, examining the Indians’ current state of affairs, let’s pretend we’re the big sites’ “experts” and do a little prognosticating ourselves.
Seeing as the Indians took out the hapless Tigers this evening, and the Kitties are on a skid of their own that has them bungling below the Tribe’s lofty status, I’m going out on a limb and saying they’re old, not very deep and DONE. I am going with this:
Chicago - 87 wins
Cleveland - 84 wins
Minnesota - 82 wins
Detroit - 81 wins
Kansas City - Drafting really high next year . . . again
I still hold out a small glimmer of hope for the Tribe but am pretty disappointed in the management of this team at this time. Yet, what are they really supposed to do? If you’re Mark Shapiro who exactly do you trade? Everyone (except Cliff Lee) is currently at their lowest value, and it’s not that nobody wants them, it’s just that nobody wants to GIVE anything for them.
If you don’t have two pitchers on the shelf you could seriously look at dealing Sowers, although Laffey has more value, but we all wish to keep him now, don’t we?
CC is the one I’d deal and I’d do it quickly before he gets hurt for the rest of the year and you go out empty handed. If the Dodgers could get a whiff of a contract extension window they might consider potential closer Jonathan Broxton and Matt Kemp if the Tribe sweetens the deal with maybe a Chuck Lofgren, Trevor Crowe package. And throw in Andy Marte for good measure. They’d probably want Ben Francisco or Franklin Gutierrez instead, but I personally would love to see a Choo/Gutz monster in right field with Grady and Kemp manning the other two positions. That’s a nice outfield. Francisco could be in that mix as well. Whatever you have to do, do it. It’s not a complete fix for this season and it’s risky by making you short in starting arms, but CC will bolt after the year, it’s a position of strength in the system and you need to find a closer somewhere. Getting a young stud from the crowded Dodger outfield would be a fine way to go.
They have to do something, but dealing for a single bat is not going to fix what ails this offense, so in the process of trying to jump-start the Tribe, you might as well build for the future in the process.
Good luck Mark . . .
June 8th, 2008 at 10:47 am
Halifax,
Definitely nice to have you back on the site. I love that deal you have set up with the dodgers, and it would definitely help the dodgers a lot too. As much as I would hate to see gutz go at this point, if he is needed to get broxton and kemp, I would do that. Other teams which I think would give up a lot for CC, or a less for Sowers, Yankees, Phillies, and possibly the Cubs. Based on past experience, I think we could probably get the most back from the Cubs. Carlos Marmol would be a huge pull from them if they are interested in dealing him. The guy averages almost two strikeouts an inning, and with the success of Kerry Wood and Howry, they might deal him to get another starter.
June 9th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
Just to let you know, I found out that James Pete was involved in an accident a few weeks ago and is a bit banged up. He is hoping to return to the site soon.
June 9th, 2008 at 4:41 pm
Sorry to hear that– Hope James is OK. Tell him not to handle his rehab like Victor Martinez or Travis Hafner– exacerbating his injury for months will not be helpful.
June 9th, 2008 at 5:48 pm
Definitely, James should take as much time as he needs. Hope all is well with him and he has a speedy recovery.
June 11th, 2008 at 8:56 am
Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Dodgers may be willing to move outfielder Matt Kemp for a slugger. I wonder if they’d deal him for an ace in Sabathia? CC just upped his trade value last night. Keep it up, big guy!
June 13th, 2008 at 6:23 am
Man … being associated with the Indians is just bad karma this year. Get well soon, James!
June 16th, 2008 at 8:56 am
Wang is out for an extended period of time now for the Yankees. What does this mean for the tribe? While the guys seem to be playing better of late, Yankees bloggers have been throwing around some pretty interesting trade scenarios for the big guy. One blogger suggested that the Yankees woudl ship Cano, Jose Tabata, and another pitching prospect for CC. What does this do for the Tribe?
First, it gives us a top notch second baseman, both defensively and offensively. Second, it allows us to move acab, if he gets his offense fixed down in triple a, to shortstop, giving us a premier middle infield. You get a top rate outfield prospect in Tabata. He has some problems, but is regarded as one of the better outfield prospects in the league. Plus one quality arm from their farm system (the suggested becantes who I know nothing about). With Laffey proving himself at the big league level, and Carmona coming back soon, this trade may be a great thing for our future. Downside, it shows that we are giving up on this season, attendance will tank even more than it already has (which by the way the Pittsburgh paper wrote about this weekend, thats right Pittsburgh paper writing about our poor attendance), and another frustrating summer.
Anyone have any thoughts? My feelings are conflicted. This is as much as we are going to get for CC without a doubt at this point, and it looks highly unlikely that we will resign him. On the other hand I am not comfortable giving up on this season yet, and I hate helping the Yankees.
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