A look at the Indians pitching before the break–a study in amusement park thrills (or horror)
Indians bullpen--photo courtesy of Laffy4K/flickr
(Second part of a three-part all-star break review by the writers at Tribe Report. Part one focused on the Indians’ hitting, written by Ron Vallo. Today’s focus is the pitching. Tomorrow, the newest writer to Tribe Report, Brian La Shier will write about the Tribe’s front office, and field manager)
The Cleveland Indians pitching staff more resembles a trip to a northern Ohio amusement park, than to the bullpen at Cleveland’s Progressive Field. Watching the bullpen warm-ups before the game has begun to feel a lot like that moment when the high-thrill rides and roller coasters begin to become visible as your car pulls into the parking lot at Cedar Point. There’s that part of you is thrilled that you are going to get to ride some of the best coasters in the world. Unfortunately, the other part of you is walking precariously close to throwing up, knowing that your stomach is likely going to get turned out in knots before the day is over.
Paul Byrd is The Blue Streak. He’s long past his prime, though he can give you a moment here or there that makes you remember that he once was a pretty good pitcher. Jeremy Sowers is the Cedar Creek Mine ride. He had that one year when he was new, but after that, he was just another pitcher. Jake Westbrook is the Gemini. He’s a tried and true starter that can still give thrills, but ultimately he needs repaired far too much. Aaron Laffey is Mean Streak. He’s not the guy that’s going to blow it buy you with speed, but he shows more moxie and toughness, than some of the flashier rides. Fausto Carmona is the Top Fuel Dragster. You may have to wait to see the kid pitch, but when you finally do, it’s like something you’ve never seen before. CC Sabathia was the Magnum. When he was here, he was the best of the bunch, and it wasn’t even close. Cliff Lee is (for those expecting the Maverick, well, not this year) the Millennium Force. Many didn’t think he would live up to the hype with the brilliance of the Magnum nearby. Now, he’s surpassed it.
Unfortunately, you won’t find the bullpen anywhere close to a Cedar Point coaster. We’d best describe the Indians relievers as being similar to the now-defunct Geauga Lake, the once great Cleveland park, that is now more resembling a Wild West ghost town.
I’ve got to get the bullpen out of the way early. To describe the pen as the weak part of the staff wouldn’t be fair to how miserable it’s been. The Tribe pen is currently last in the majors with a 5.13 ERA, and opponents batting average at .277. They are second-to-last in the league with only nine wins, and fifteen saves. They are third-to-last in strike-outs, with only 210. They are fourth-to-last in innings pitched with 252 2/3, which may be a good thing, if it doesn’t run the starters into the ground. They are fifth to last with opponents OBP at .348. They are third in the league in home runs given up, at 37, and fourth in the league in losses, with 18. They aren’t in the top 10 in any major category that holds any importance, that isn’t a negative. No, it’s not good at all.
The failings of Rafael Betancourt is the major cause of the bullpen let down. The righty reliever followed up a season in which he was arguably the best set-up man in baseball, with a season in which he may be one the worst. His ERA stands at an even six (4 1/2 points above last season’s ERA), and he’s given up earned runs in 16 of his 42 appearances. Five of those games, he’s given up three or more runs. Last season, he gave up runs in only 13 games out of 79 1/3 innings pitched. He didn’t give up multiple runs in any appears. This season, he went to the anchor of the pen, to to the ripped sails in a storm. Betancourt miserable year started the mudslide that became the bullpen mess. Grade: F
Joe Borowski had 45 saves last year. I cannot begin to tell you how sick I am of listening to that stat. If Ron, Brian and I were all working in a bullpen by committee last season, we’d have made a run at 45 saves. To be fair, Borowski was the product of the pitchers around him. That case could have been made this season as well. This year? His arm was burnt, his ERA was 7 1/2+, and he nearly blew more saves than he actually saved (4 blown saves, to 6 saves). Combine that with the bullpen mutiny around him, and you have one ugly season for the enigmatic closer. Cleveland dumped him before the break, and not many are going to miss Borowski. At the end of the day, I’d take Borowski’s 45 saves again in a heartbeat (if I had one left after his appearances) if it meant the rest of the bullpen were back to their 2007 ways. Grade: F
My personal biggest letdown has been Jensen Lewis. You could make a strong case that Lewis was a poor-man’s Joba Chamberlain from mid-August to the end of the season last year. He brings incredible make-up, and wicked stuff. At least I thought he did. As the year has progressed, Lewis has gotten worse. It got so bad, that he was sent down to the minors for a month after struggling, and allegedly losing some velocity. He was brought back after pitching well in Buffalo in July, and looked even worse. On May 15, his ERA was a season-low, 2.82. Today, it is 4.73. He’s given up runs in six out of seven games, with four of those seven games multiple runs. Some still say it’s a lack of velocity (although he is popping the gun at nearly the same as last year), or a loss of confidence. I disagree with both. It’s loss of command. If you throw balls down the middle with no movement in this league, I don’t care how hard you throw, you are going to get hit. It’s not about speed for Lewis, but location. He’s lost that, and with it, his consistent effectiveness. What a let-down. Grade: D
Jorge Julio was the mop-up guy for the Tribe, until he got blitzed by the Rangers on May 23rd.He gave up five earned runs, which saw his ERA go up over two runs. Still, to say this guy was anything more than taking up space in the bullpen would be a lie. Sure, he’s got an incredibly live arm, and should be closing games, but at the same time, this guy’s motor runs at about 1 MPH. I’ve heard reports that his life is a domino effect of meandering around the town being an idiot, and it carries into the dugout. This lack of focus is what generally makes his 98 MPH fastball, look about 20 MPH slower. Good riddance to an intriguing talent. Hopefully someone has a mop bucket ready. Grade: incomplete
I owe a shout-out to Craig Breslow, who the Indians also DFA’ed after seven appearances. To me, it was apparent that the Indians got a steal when the Red Sox cut this kid. There wasn’t a Red Sox blog or fan that didn’t say this was a mistake. Well, Wedge, in his utter brilliance, pitched this guy every time there was a solar eclipse. He still was more than adequate in most of those appearances, but Wedge never gave him a consistent shot. Now, he’s lights out for Minnesota. Another managing blunder from Wedge, who makes too many of these types of gaffes. Grade: A, just not for us
Then there is Edward Mujica. I’ve always wondered about this kid. I’m convinced that there is more to him than meets the eye. Like many others before him, I think that Wedge and Shapiro have rubber-banded this kid from AAA to the majors so much, that they essentially set him up to fail. He pitched well in 2006 (up and down three times). He was horrible in 2007 (up and down four times). This season, he’s taken over the slop role that Jorge Julio left. Now, the kid started off pretty bad. Get this though, in his last seven games, 7 2/3 innings of work, Mujica has been good. He’s only given up three hits and a walk, while striking out seven. His ERA during that time period has been 0.00. Not too shabby. Maybe someone to keep an eye on, now that he’s actually gotten some stable work. Grade: C+
Rafael Perez isn’t free of the bullpen bashing that the others have received. Here’s what I will say. On April 24th, after starting the year not quite on, his ERA was 6.52. He had some good outings that were littered with a couple of explosively bad games. Then things got better. He only gave up two earned runs in May. He did give up five in June that had his ERA treading water at about 3.5, but he’s seemingly turned the corner and reverted to his 2007 form. He has moments of struggle here and there, but remember, this kid was an afterthought in the pen before exploding on the scene last year. I think his combination of stuff and savvy is unmatched by the other relievers. He may be the only candidate currently on this team that has the stuff to close long-term. It remains to be seen if the savvy is something that will become consistent, or continue to come and go with greater and greater pressure. Grade: B-
Masa Kobayashi has been the most consistent guy in the pen from day one. It shouldn’t be surprising. He’s a veteran pitcher who has closed his entire career in Japan (227 career saves), and is a workout demon. This is a guy that does it the same thing every day. He’s not the guy that’s going to rip apart a clubhouse if he gets beat. He comes out and does his job. If it’s a set-up, he’s there. If it’s a close, he’s there. For now, he’s the de facto closer. Ultimately, he’ll take over Betancourt’s role as set-up man, if the Indians commit to someone more long-term in the closer roll. Grade: B
Rick Bauer, Juan Rincon, Brian Slocum, Tom Mastny, and Scott Elarton are all nearly non-issues for many different reasons. Rick Bauer was DFA’ed, then refused a trip to the minors. The Indians called him up from Buffalo and promptly used him every 7-10 days between appearances. Not surprisingly, he gave up three runs in three out of four assignments. Yeah Rick, Wedge screwed you, but you didn’t give him much to work with, did you. Juan Rincon is waiver-wire fodder, and just showed it in his last appearance. He’s still on the roster, but it’s only a matter of time before this guy is gone. Brian Slocum has promise, but got absolutely shelled in his recent call-up, and was promptly sent back down. He’s out of options next year, so the Indians will need to make a call on the kid soon. Scott Elarton is out with a non-baseball related injury. It doesn’t sound very good, and we will only say here that we hope whatever the issue, it gets fixed up. Finally, there’s Tom Mastny, who seems to sum up the Tribe pen from game to game. One game, he’ll give you three perfect innings, and the next, he’ll give you three runs in a third of an inning. I’m not buying a ticket on the Mastny bandwagon any time soon. Grade: Bauer-F, Rincon-F, Slocum-F, Mastny-C-, Elarton-incomplete
The overall grade for the bullpen has to be an F. It’s been bad. Perez and Kobayashi have been the only consistent relievers, and even they have struggled at times. Perez has been less consistent than last year, and Kobayashi has middling stuff, but high command. Mujica has had his moments, but this isn’t an arm you build your pen around. The rest of the pitchers have smelled a lot like a backed-up septic system.
As far as the starters go, I have to pull out the old, and often overused Eastwood reference, with a twist. This season’s starters are really all about the Good, the Bad, the Ugly and the Gone.
The Ugly:
Jake Westbrook came into the regular season having pitched as well in the spring as anyone in the league. He was every bit as good in April, until he went on the DL with a strained right muscle in his rib area. He came off the DL, made a start, struggled, and went back on the DL with elbow inflammation. A Tommy John surgery later, and Westbrook is now a question-mark long term, and obviously out for the year. Talk about a promising season lost for the Tribe hurler. Now you have to wonder if at 30+, will he ever be an effective starter for the Indians again. Grade: Incomplete
Fausto Carmona was just as electric this year, as he was last year, if you just ignore the walks. Carmona is only effective when he has command and control of the lower half of the plate. That hasn’t changed this year, but you could make a case that umpires were giving him an excessively tight strike zone. He walked 38 in 10 starts this year, after walking only 61 in 32 starts last year. His strike outs were down as well, which again, could point to the umps being a bit more selective. On the other hand, it’s possible that his pitches were a couple of inches off, as a sign that his arm was slightly off. This stint on the DL will get him right. He should be back soon, and hopefully back to his ace-like status. Grade: Incomplete
My goodness, Tom Mastny had to start a game because Westbrook went down. If that doesn’t say it all about this season, than nothing does. He went an inning and a third, and gave up five earned runs. Ouch. Sorry, I can’t grade this one, but I had to mention it.
The Bad:
Jeremy Sowers started the year battling for the #5 slot in the rotation. He didn’t get it, but was called up in June against the Yankees, and didn’t pitch badly in a no decision. The the Indians began playing rubber band with the lefty after that. Nice thing to do to a guy struggling with confidence. He was decent in his next start, and nearly unhittable in Buffalo, until Jake Westbrook went down and gave him his fulltime chance in the bigs, as the #5 starter. He’s been nothing but bad since then. Now, he’s 0-5 with 7.70 ERA. His best days may be in the past at this point. He’s too young to give up on, but you can see it when he’s on the mound. he’s just not the same kid that blew onto the scene in 2006. Grade: F
Every time I watch Paul Byrd pitch, I keep thinking Eddie Harris from Major League. Byrd started off pitching like garbage, had a rebirth after Bud Selig said his use of steroids was okay, and has been swirling around the bathtub drain ever since. He had the ERA down to 3.61 on May 13 (second 7 inning game with no earned runs in three games). In his 10 starts since then, Byrd has given up two runs once, three, four and five runs each twice, and six runs three times. His ERA is currently 5.47. Cleveland won’t even be able to deal him. At least not for anything worth a hill of beans. So I say to you Paul Byrd, where is the Crisco, the Bardol and the vagisil? Grade: F
The Good:
Aaron Laffey has to be considered good. He’s been consistent since being called up. He’s only 5-5, but the record should be better. He’s had one horrid start, three below average starts, and the rest pretty solid. His overall ERA is a more than respectable 3.45, and he does what every good pitcher should do, throw strikes. This kid has what I thought Sowers had more of, cockiness. He’s the guy that would make Clint Eastwood proud. He’ll look you in the eye, and spit in your face. I can hear it now, before every pitch, “Here it comes…Punk.”Grade: B-
Saying Cliff Lee is just good is utterly ridiculous. This season, Cliff Lee has been exquisite. He’s 12-2, with a 2.31 ERA. He spent the first month of the season with baseball experts wondering if his ERA would ever go over 1.00. This coming after the whole Tribe Nation was hoping he’d be dealt somewhere for a right-handed power bat in the outfield. This coming after rolling out a 6+ ERA last year and being sent to Buffalo. This coming after not making the post-season roster last season. This coming after being forced to battle for the #5 spot in the 2008 rotation. Now? WELL, he’s the unquestioned ace. Ironic, huh? Think about this: in his four no-decisions this season, he’s pitched 30 1/3 innings, and given up a total of four runs. For those counting at home, that’s a 1.18 ERA. This cat should be 16-2 right now. This is the Cliff Lee I saw pitch in AA. Grade: A+
The Gone?
So Long CC Sabathia. He was the worst pitcher in baseball at the beginning of April. On April 16th, his ERA was 13.5. I was personally ready to usher him anywhere but Cleveland at that point. Of course, that’s when he started pitching again, and arguably, better than last year. He made 14 more starts for Cleveland after April 16th, and pitched 104 1/3 innings. He gave up only 25 runs to the tune of a 2.16 ERA. He only went 6-6 in those starts, which shows you how horrid the Indians’ offense truly is. The staff will be worse off without Sabathia, know that. He will be missed, even though the greed is what ultimately led to the trade. Grade: B
An honorable mention goes out to Matt Ginter, who gave us one good start. Unless we have lightning in a bottle, I don’t see Ginter factoring in much between now and the end of the year. Grade: Incomplete
Overall, the starters have to be rated a C. Lee gets an A+, and Laffey gets a B, but the rest are either D’s, F’s, gonzo or incomplete. I’m probably rating it high, but I can’t get those few weeks in late April and early May when the staff pitching as well as any in the league. That alone keeps the C mark.
The entire pitching staff, however, gets a D, and even that may be to high. Let’s just lay the blame on the pen, and it’s inability to do much of anything consistently. Thanks to injuries to the starters, the trade of CC Sabathia, and underwhelming performances behind the brilliance Lee has presented this year, this staff just isn’t all that good right now.
Where do we go from here? There’s not a whole lot of pieces to bring up in the pen or the rotation at this point.
We may see relievers Randy Newsom and Tony Sipp this year, although I suspect that Sipp is a guy that won’t see the majors in 2009. Newsom is a guy I don’t think the Indians’ brass wants to see this year either, but they may not have a choice. Past that, close your eyes and pray that Cleveland can get quality innings out of Lewis and Betancourt, other than the pain of watching them implode every other appearance. If those two can rebound, with Kobayashi and Perez maintaining their current status, the pen could improve. With those four anchoring, you might see a guy like Tom Mastny or Ed Mujica step up with no pressure. Still, there are a bunch of questions, and there doesn’t seem to be many answers. I also believe we may see a trade or two that could address the pen, but anything that they get before the deadline will be for the future, not for this season. Still, you don’t pick up Bryan Bullington and Zack Jackson for the AAA team without intending to use them to replace something…somewhere. Of course, the Indians aren’t exactly rolling with major-league-ready relievers at this point.
As far as the starters go, you start with Lee and hope he maintains his ace status. You get back Carmona, and hope he regains his ace status. That could be as good a 1-2 combination as there is in the American League. I still think there are questions about how long Lee can maintain this brilliance, but for now, there are no chinks in the armor. Carmona is just plain wicked (this year being no exception), and will continue to be so if he’s healthy. You have Aaron Laffey rolling at the #3 slot, and he’ll stay there because they have nothing else. Past those three starters, what is there? This is nothing against Byrd, but he’s just not effective anymore, and Sowers needs to go somewhere and figure out how to pitch again, but who do you bring up?
The Tribe is going to have to grind it out with Byrd and Sowers, to buy some time for David Huff, who is the only prospect in triple-A right now that has long-term potential for the Indians. I suspect Huff will, like Laffey, be a better version of Sowers, but only if the Indians give him the time to season. They just don’t have the time. Past that, there’s Jeff Weaver, who is horrid, and really nothing else worth talking about in Buffalo. It’s amazing how quickly Cleveland went from a team with a surplus of starters, to a team without much of anything.
I do want to mention Adam Miller. He’s done for the year, apparently, but he is worth mentioning for a couple of reasons. First, I think he’s done as a starter. The Indians would be idiotic to think that he’s going to ever be healthy long-term. So, you use him as a reliever, right? We’ll see, but I could see the Indians front office keeping him as a starter, knowing that there is no immediate help anywhere close to being ready, with Newsom and Sipp near ready on the relief end. So, who knows with Miller. The only thing I know about the kid is that he’s someone we all have to stop thinking about.
So when you are sitting around the house with nothing to do this summer, and your friend calls up with tickets to the Indians, you may want suggest a trip to Cedar Point. At least there, you know what you are going to get.






14 Responses to “A look at the Indians pitching before the break–a study in amusement park thrills (or horror)”
July 16th, 2008 at 9:03 am
Wouldn’t Jeremy Guthrie look good in a Tribe uniform now? If he was given even half the opportunity Jason Davis received he would have shown he can get people out. To think he was just let go for nothing….
July 16th, 2008 at 9:22 am
There are a lot of those cases Ted…with Guthrie and Phillips standing out the most…
July 16th, 2008 at 9:38 am
And a lot of those cases with every team as well.
July 16th, 2008 at 9:56 am
Newsome’s like 26 years old, unless he’s been injured (admittedly, I don’t know anything about the guy other than his statline which, this year, is very impressive), I can’t imagine what they’re waiting for. the guy’s getting people out. they certainly know more than i do so there must be a reason.
Well if we’d hung on to him and GIVEN him as many chances as Jason Davis and he didn’t pan out we’d all be saying, “how many Jason Davises and Jeremy Guthries are we going to keep giving ample chances to?!” So it seems to me these guys are almost turning into the Steve Sax of talent evaluators. They’ve got “the thing” when it comes to evaluating young players. they either wait too long or give up too early.
To be fair, when we rip them for their silly decisions regarding the guthries and the phillipses of the world, we fail to mention that the extra chances worked with Lee, and worked with Carmona, and we didn’t give grady sizemore too much too soon and ship him away only to watch him flourish elsewhere (though I still think he’s just a nice player whose star power is vastly overrated…at least so far). We seem to just remember Andy Marte and Brandon Phillips and Jeremy Guthrie, et. al.
July 16th, 2008 at 9:58 am
Exactly, Ron. When you watch follow a team 365 days a year, you tend to exist in a vacuum and forget that other teams have GMs and owners who make decisions that rile their fan base up too. We’ve actually been the beneficiary of some of those poor decisions.
July 16th, 2008 at 10:18 am
I don’t think Newsom was on the radar at all. He just got bumped to AAA, so we’ll probably see him soon. He’s a side-armer…so I’m not really sure how that plays into it at all. I know a lot of organizations think that sidearm pitchers are smoke and mirror guys, and will get figured out sooner or later…
From all indications though, he’s reminding a lot of people of Steve Olin, and I’m talking personality first…
but like Olin…he supposedly hammers the bottom of the strike zone…and plays with the edges as well.
As for the rest of the stuff, about moves we make, and don’t make…of course it’s like that with all teams. Like all teams, at some point, you have to weight the grady moves and Carmona moves with the Phillips moves and the Guthrie moves…combine it with the direction of the club…and figure out if it’s working or not. In a lot of ways, it actually is a vacuum. If you make all your decisions because the guy in Chicago or Detroit is doing something different, it doesn’t make much sense at all…because if Chicago or Detroit make a Phillips mistake, they are able to sign a guy pretty quickly to replace them because they can spend more money.
A move like Phillips in particular, is a bit more costly to a club like the Indians than other teams, because it’s impossible for the Indians to sign a guy like that…most of the time.
I think there is a huge difference in the discussion about Phillips, and Guthrie by the way. I think when you look at Phillips, most people thought that letting him go was a mistake, and I’m talking about people in the organization. With Guthrie, I got the feeling that there were a bunch that didn’t think he had the stuff to make it as anything more than a #4 or #5 guy.
Looking back at both, of course, is Monday Morning Quarterbacking, but I do think there was some organizational weight to losing Phillips, while not so much to losing Guthrie.
Either way, Guthrie or Phillips isn’t going to help this pitching staff any time soon…
Hopefully, the turn in the Rays series is a boon for the bullpen…
I really worry about the starters though. Without Carmona, they aren’t that good. With Carmona, they are decent…but Sowers and Byrd are not real good right now.
July 16th, 2008 at 10:20 am
How old was Guthrie when he left, anyways. It’s not like he was 22 or 23…
July 16th, 2008 at 10:36 am
I think you could have scored the starters a bit ahead of where you had them. They were really good for longer than a couple of weeks.
I do agree that you can blame the teams woes largely on the relief pitching. Betancourt killed this team, and the rest seemed to follow.
Nice piece.
July 16th, 2008 at 11:04 am
We can fault the brain power for lots of things. Trades and moves pan out or they don’t - everywhere.
Where I think Jim is most “on” (although I agree with virtually everything he wrote) is the refusal by Wedge to use the 4-7 guys in the pen. They pitch once a month, get bombed, their head gets played with and then they suck. And the Breslow is the most baffling. He DID pitch decently - even though he had to clear the cobwebs off before he took the mound - and he still was cut loose.
The same thing has been going one for 1 1/2 years now with Andy Marte by the way. He may or may not be good, but his shortcomings are magnified when he’s not used.
July 16th, 2008 at 11:44 am
I saw somewhere about three weeks before the all-star break that our bullpen had blown 13 saves. I’m sure the number is more than that by now. but lets say it hasn’t. You add 13 wins and subtract 13 losses and we’re dead even with the sox. I know it’s not that simple (some blown saves don’t even occur in the 9th inning and you still end up winning the game, others only tie the game and you end up winning … but honestly, how often do we bounce back after a blown save and still win the game no matter when it occurs), but you get the point. Imagine that. As shitty as our offense has been, as much as people have been, as devastating as all our injuries have been, we’re just a lock-down bullpen (a la last season or 2005) away from being tied in the AL Central. Possibly even alone in first, depending on how many blown saves we’ve had (that resulted in losses, of course) since i saw that number.
Makes you wonder why we don’t just stick with the same offense again NEXT year, stick with the same rotation next year, and just commit all our free agent resources to K-Rod and another 7-8th inning guy. But we all know better. Cleveland “doesn’t pay for closers.”
July 16th, 2008 at 2:54 pm
The only major problem I see there is Sabathia is gone, and that’s a big difference. Of course, he’d be gone anyways.
That said…
Say you add a closer…
and then you start adding the LaPorta’s and the Hodges as the year progresses.
You have Jordan Brown sitting there is an OBP guy, and Cabrera comes back.
Say Barfield comes back to the guy he could be (think a lighter version of Phillips)…
Say Hafner comes back to 75%…
Say VMart is VMart…
Without any other moves…there’s hope there.
But a lot of questions.
July 16th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
Ron’s point that the Guthrie/Phillips/Davis/Breslow outcome is a fact of MLB is well taken. The angst this year is magnified by the once exciting expectations this year represented following last seasons success.
I wasn’t as critical of Phillips panning out for Cincy after flaming out for use because while it was happing in real time we were playing great ball and Cabrera burst in to ignite the offense.
As I recall - Phillips got the AB’s and playing time. Marte seems to have suffered the extreme reaction once Wedge got so visably burned.
As both James and Ron’s analysis proves there is a lot of room for hope.
The C.C. trade could become much easier to swollow if Zach Jackson - a once highly regarded prospect - becomes our Phillips allowing the Brass to ship Sowers back to AAA for one last head shrinking.
July 16th, 2008 at 4:54 pm
Jackson has looked good so far, in granted, a small window.
July 16th, 2008 at 5:56 pm
Sorry guys. As a semi-closeted Indians fan, I wish you guys the best. You’ll get ‘em next year.
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