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2008 Season Preview: STARTING PITCHING

An area the team would like to see substantial improvement this season is the starting pitching. Last season, no starting staff in the NL was worse than the Marlins on an ERA basis. Their 5.58 SP ERA, in addition to being unsightly, was a near half-a-run higher than their next closest counterpart, the Washington Nationals.

Many factors played in to the team’s poor starting pitching:

• Injuries to Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez, two valuable contributors to the 2006 team. They appeared in a combined 10 games in 2007.
• Dontrelle Willis devolving from staff ace to staff disgrace
• Scott Olsen’s off-the-field issues, numbers dropped off significantly from ’06 to ‘07
• An injured Ricky Nolasco, a serviceable back of the rotation starter
• The ginormous injury bug that hit the staff generally speaking, forcing pitchers like Rick Vanden Hurk and Daniel Barone into big league duty

What does this mean for 2008?

Johnson is still rehabbing from 2007 Tommy John surgery, an operation he underwent last August that generally requires 12-18 months of recovery, rehab, and return to full strength. His return to action is slated for August at the earliest. Even then, how effective will he be upon his return?

Sanchez is still rehabbing his repaired torn labrum and his projected return is around the All-Star break.

Willis, the ace of the staff prior to his ’07 implosion, is now a Detroit Tiger. His 5.17 ERA was over a full run higher than his 4.02 ERA in ’04, his previous career high. It will be interesting to see what’s in store for him both in Detroit and the AL.

Olsen? Whether he can return to his 2006 form or potentially surpass it remains to be seen. He has a chance to be the staff ace on a staff with no true staff ace. This spring he is already battling tendonitis in his throwing shoulder, which if it lingers will put a dent into those plans.

Needless to say, the Marlins’ medical staff will go a long way in shaping Olsen’s performance this season. And that’s assuming his off field issues are completely behind him.

As for Nolasco, while I think he can provide quality innings for the back of the rotation, it should be noted that in 2006, his ERA as a starter was nearly a full run higher than his ERA as a reliever (4.96 vs. 3.98). But with spring injuries to Olsen and Sergio Mitre, a fairly stocked cupboard in the bullpen, and Nolasco’s performance this spring, he will start the year in the rotation and remain there for the time being.

There are two new additions to the staff this year. One lefty was sent packing in Willis, but two more have come aboard in the form of promising youngster Andrew Miller (one of the players in the Willis/Miguel Cabrera trade) and 6-foot-9 veteran Mark Hendrickson (one-year FA signing).

Hendrickson is 33 years old and has a career ERA over five. He has a 43-55 career record, and is joining a team that’s not projected to do a lot of winning this season. Something like 140 innings, 8-9 wins, and a 4.7 ERA is about all one can reasonably expect optimistically for the Marlins’ meager investment. Anything more is gravy

Miller is a player that’s very much intriguing. He has the stuff to become a front line pitcher in this game. At this stage, however, he’s an extremely erratic pitcher that’s not at all shy about issuing walks. Last season with Detroit he made 13 starts and had a WHIP of 1.75. In two starts with AAA Toledo that season he had a WHIP of 1.83. In 2006, he appeared in eight games with Detroit and posted a WHIP of 1.74. A quick peek at his stats this spring has him issuing 10 BB and 10 hits in 13 innings of work, so it appears control issues will continue to plague him in 2008.

There will be times this season where Miller will look dominant. There will also be times this season where Miller will inexplicably lose command of the strike zone and send Dolphin Stadium into a collective groan.

Evaluating the rotation as a whole, no matter how the starting five shakes out, there isn’t a single starter that doesn’t have either a question mark or uncertainty attached. While there’s a chance a guy like Olsen improves dramatically, or Miller steps up with a better-than-expected season, I don’t believe it will be enough to elevate them above the bottom or near bottom of the league.

My main issues are: 1) No defined or proven ace, 2) unproven youngsters with mediocre/sub-mediocre veterans, 3) pre-season injury concerns to Olsen and Mitre, 4) no JJ or Sanchez for a big chunk of the season, and 5) they play in a division with three of the top four run-scoring offenses in the NL from last season (PHI, NYM, ATL).

The 2009 season should be a much better year for the staff. They’ll have JJ and Sanchez from the beginning, and Miller and Olsen will be one year further into their development.  Their best chance at an emerging ace in 2008 will likely come from Miller or Olsen.  Should that happen, you add a healthy JJ and/or Sanchez to the mix, and that gives the Marlins a promising young rotation for the foreseeable future.  Perhaps players like Rick Vanden Hurk or Gaby Hernandez will be ready to make an impact as well.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, March 12th, 2008 at 2:00 pm and is filed under Sergio Mitre, 2008 starting pitching, Anibal Sanchez, Scott Olsen, Josh Johnson, Dontrelle Willis, andrew miller. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.