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Oliver Perez and Unearned Runs: An Investigation

In many ways, Oliver Perez was one of the major success stories of the 2007 Mets. A lefty with a low-90s fastball and an absolutely devastating slider, Perez was able more often than not to overcome the control problems that have plagued him throughout his career (it is worth noting that even in his fantastic 2004 season with the Pirates when he had a 2.98 ERA and 239 strikeouts in 196 innings, Perez still walked 81 batters) and make opposing hitters look foolish. Perez’s 3.56 ERA was among the top 10 in the National League for starting pitchers, his .229 opponent batting average was bested only by Jake Peavy and Chris Young, and he struck out 8.85 batters per 9 innings, a rate topped only by Peavy among NL starters.

However, there was one particularly troubling aspect to Perez’s season, one that was mentioned with increasing frequency by the SNY broadcast booth as the season progressed. The Mets allowed a total of 61 unearned runs in 2007, and 20 of those were charged to Oliver Perez. How could a pitcher who pitched about 12% of a team’s innings be responsible for nearly a third of its unearned runs? Was he (as Gary Cohen, Keith Hernandez, and Ron Darling speculated) more prone to melting down after an error than other pitchers? Did the Mets play uncharacteristically poor defense in his starts? Was there some other explanation?

In order to attempt to answer these questions, I went to baseball-reference.com and looked at the gamelogs for each of Perez’s starts this year, looking for all instances of an error being committed while he was on the mound and all instances of Perez allowing an unearned run. The following is a list of those instances.

May 2: Against the Marlins, Perez allowed 3 runs, 2 of which were unearned thanks to David Wright’s second error of the day. Wright’s first error did not lead to a Florida run, and the second error occurred when the bases were loaded with 2 outs. Perez was pulled immediately after that error.

May 7: In one of the ugliest innings of the entire season, Perez gave up 8 runs against the Giants, 6 of them unearned. Two quick outs after a 2-run home run were followed by a single and back-to-back errors by Shawn Green and Damion Easley when a successful play by either one of them would have ended the inning. Instead, another run was in and there were still 2 men on base for Rich Aurilia to drive in with a home run. After allowing the next 2 batters after that to reach base, Perez was pulled and Lino Urdaneta (who was just one day removed from the crowning achievement of getting his lifetime ERA below infinity) served up Bengie Molina’s second home run of the inning. While Perez did unravel after the back-to-back errors, one of the unearned runs charged to him scored as a direct result of the second error, and 2 more crossed the plate after he had been removed from the game (keep in mind that Urdaneta came in with 2 outs and men on 1st and 2nd, with the man on 2nd not a sure bet to score on a single).

May 13: David Wright and Jose Reyes each made an error. As Perez took a 1-hit shutout into the 9th inning against the Brewers, I think it’s safe to say he wasn’t affected by either error.

May 18: Carlos Gomez’s error was of the “dropped foul pop-up to extend at-bat” variety, and Perez got the batter (Derek Jeter) out anyway.

June 3: Reyes’s throwing error on a 2-out infield hit by Mark Reynolds allowed Eric Byrnes to score from 2nd. However, the run was earned because Perez threw a wild pitch before retiring the next batter.

July 15: Another Reyes throwing error on an infield hit, this time letting the batter, Brandon Phillips, get to 2nd. Phillips did not score.

July 26: 5 unearned runs against the Pirates. However, the error that led to those runs being unearned was Perez’s own. I’ve always felt that when a pitcher commits an error that leads to scoring, the run(s) should be earned. The earned/unearned distinction (pitcher’s fault/other player’s fault) is made between wild pitches and passed balls, why not on pitcher errors and all other errors?

August 1: Perez’s error in this game was immediately followed by a Prince Fielder 3-run bomb. The error led to one of runs being classified as unearned, but I’ve already made my opinion on that clear.

August 12: An errant pickoff throw on which both Perez and Carlos Delgado were charged with errors let Cody Ross go from 1st to 3rd with 1 out, but Perez struck out the next batter and Mike DiFelice picked Ross off 3rd to end the inning and avert the threat.

September 4: After a dropped 3rd strike by Paul Lo Duca allowed Norris Hopper to reach base, Jeff Keppinger doubled down the line to drive in Hopper, then scored on a sacrifice fly that would have been the final out of the inning had Lo Duca held on to strike 3. Perez unraveled a bit at this point, walking the bases loaded before getting out of the inning without further damage.

September 16: The Mets committed 6 errors in this game, 4 of them with Perez on the mound. A 1st-inning throwing error by Lo Duca didn’t cause any damage as Perez struck out the side, but 2 unearned runs scored when Reyes made 2 errors on one play with 2 outs in the 2nd inning, and Moises Alou dropped a fly ball in the 4th inning that led to another unearned run.

September 22: Wright’s error in the 5th did not lead to a run scoring, but Alou’s in the 8th (with 2 outs and a runner on 2nd) did.

There was at least one Met error in 12 of Perez’s 29 starts, including 10 in which at least one Met other than Perez committed an error. 20 errors were committed while he was on the mound, including 3 that were his own. As a team, the Mets committed 101 errors in 2007, 9 of those by pitchers. 17 of the 92 errors committed by position players took place while Perez was on the mound, a higher percentage than one would expect given the percentage of the team’s innings that he pitched. It is safe to say that the Mets did an unusually bad job of fielding the ball when Perez was pitching, at least with regard to errors (it is worth noting that the team’s Defensive Efficiency while Perez was on the mound was greater than their overall Defensive Efficiency, something that is not all that surprising given Perez’s extreme flyball tendencies, as fly balls that do not leave the yard are more likely to be converted into outs than ground balls are).

How much, then, is Perez to blame for the high unearned run total? While he is clearly not totally innocent (30% of the unearned runs he allowed scored as a result of his own errors, and there are some instances where he appeared to melt down after being let down by the defense behind him), there are some instances in which it is tough to blame him. 6 of the unearned runs (the same number as those due to his own miscues) were the result of 2-out errors where the run(s) scored on the play, and 2 more were the result of a bad and long since forgotten reliever allowing inherited runners to score where a competent one would have likely stranded them.

What does this all mean for the Mets, and for Perez, going forward? It is worth noting that Perez’s previous career high in unearned runs allowed was 8, and he achieved that mark last season while pitching terribly for a good portion of the year. As long as the Mets do not continue to commit a disproportionately large number of errors while he is on the mound, I believe that 2007 will be a fluke in terms of the quantity of unearned runs allowed by Oliver Perez.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, October 17th, 2007 at 6:50 pm and is filed under 7 Train. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.