MVN - Most Valuable Network

The 2008 Mets: Jessica’s Second 41.36% Preview

Originally, my plan for All-Star Break content was to write a little bit about the game once it ended last night. That kinda sorta went out the window around the 12th inning or so. I will say this, however: Quite often I find myself dozing off to sleep while trying to watch the midnight edition of Baseball Tonight. Last night’s All-Star Game didn’t end until about a quarter to two (also known as “just over four hours until Jessica has to get up for work”) and I was still wide awake when Corey Hart’s throw came a bit short of allowing the remaining hell to join the rest that had already broken loose. The game often gets a bad rap for everything from the manner in which players are selected to the consequences linked to the outcome, but anyone who tuned out due to one or more of those gripes missed a heck of a ballgame, one that was beautiful in its wild and crazy imperfections in the way that so many games are over the course of the season. Other All-Star Games may have boasted a more impressive collection of players, other games may have been more crisply played, but this was easily the most exciting one of my baseball-loving lifetime. (Also, you have to feel a bit bad for Justin Morneau: All the guy did was win the Home Run Derby and cross the plate to end the All-Star Game, but even most of those who noticed won’t remember that a week from now because of all of the other drama surrounding each of those events.)

Anyway, enough about the All-Star Game. Are you ready for some number-crunching about what we can expect from individual Mets over the remaining 67 games of the season? If so, you’ve come to the right place!

As you may have guessed from the title of this post and other comments I’ve made, I’m not a big fan of calling whatever baseball took place prior to the All-Star Break the “first half” and whatever takes place after it “the second half.” As far as I and the concept of dividing by two are concerned, the first half of the season ended two weeks ago; the fact that more games are played before the All-Star Break than after it makes the notion of it splitting the season in half a bit silly. Of course, you could draw the parallels between the season and a Broadway show with an intermission - the first act of the show is almost always longer than the second act, and by the time intermission comes around you have a pretty good idea of where the show is going but there is still some room for surprises or redemption or the squandering of promise.

The Mets have won 13 of the 18 games they have played since I wrote my first-half review, and in that time they’ve made significant strides towards pre-season expectations. They are now up to 4.84 runs scored per game (within shouting distance of the 4.93 that PECOTA pegged them for) and down to 4.43 runs allowed per game (a lot closer to their 4.24 projection than they were even a few weeks ago). They would have to play .582 ball the rest of the way to reach 90 wins, and their once-grim playoff odds are now better than 50/50.

So, with the curtain about to rise on Act II of Your 2008 New York Mets, what might we see before this cast of characters takes its final bows at the current theater? Thanks to Sal Baxamusa’s recent gift to every spreadsheet-savvy baseball fan, we can get updated Marcel projections that account for this year’s performance in their forecasts. Without further ado, let’s see what the shiny new toy thinks certain Mets will do for the rest of the year:

Jose Reyes - .291/.352/.451
David Wright - .306/.395/.521
Carlos Beltran - .265/.353/.486
Carlos Delgado - .256/.342/.473
Luis Castillo - .278/.352/.355
Brian Schneider - .248/.326/.347
Ryan Church - .277/.352/.467
Endy Chavez - .268/.318/.370
Damion Easley - .252/.322/.400
Fernando Tatis - .267/.325/.423
Marlon Anderson - .256/.314/.406
Angel Pagan - .264/.328/.413
Ramon Castro - .259/.329/.444

Johan Santana - 3.38 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
Mike Pelfrey - 3.94 ERA, 1.44 WHIP
John Maine - 3.99 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
Oliver Perez - 4.66 ERA, 1.42 WHIP
Aaron Heilman - 3.71 ERA, 1.32 WHIP
Pedro Martinez - 3.97 ERA, 1.46 WHIP
Duaner Sanchez  - 3.94 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
Joe Smith - 3.84 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
Billy Wagner - 3.39 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
Scott Schoeneweis - 4.50 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
Pedro Feliciano - 3.96 ERA, 1.36 WHIP

This entry was posted on Wednesday, July 16th, 2008 at 7:08 pm and is filed under 7 Train. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.