MVN - Most Valuable Network

Can I still defend the offense?

Record:

2007: 6-13

2008: 5-14  

About a week ago I was commenting about how the Nats were finding themselves on the losing end of games not because of their offense, which was producing average numbers at the time, but because of their starting pitching.  Like clockwork, the Nats’ offense went into the tank and their starting pitching had some very good outings.

Past 7 days

Nats offense:    .191 BA / .288 OBP / .278 SLG  3 HRs, 16 runs scored

That’s hot. (if by “hot” you mean “very, very, very bad”. )   OK, so the past week of shame can clearly be layed at the feet of the Nats bats.  Let’s check out some more numbers and see if there’s any chance we can still absolve the offense of the overall suck-itude.  Let’s look at the comparison to last year which 10 days ago, showed an offense that had improved and a pitching staff that had not.

Offense (through 19 games)

2007:  .241 / .324 / .343, 10 HR, 62 runs

2008:  .219 / .300 / .334, 11HR, 67 runs

Pitching

2007:  4.99 ERA, 117K, 95BB, 107 R

2008: 4.73 ERA, 138K, 78 BB, 100R

Any advanatage the offense had in comparison to last year is gone.  They are scoring a few more runs, the pitching staff is saving a few more.  Congratulations, the Nats are now in the 6th circle of hell, as opposed to the 7th. 

Another things I noted (I think in a comment) was the Nats actually had a decent isolated OBP and SLG numbers.   That means that on a whole the Nats hitting woes were mainly due to an abnormally low batting average - something the team should be able to come back from.  Is that still the case?

isoOBP: 0.081 (5th in the NL). This number is pretty good.

isoSLG: 0.115 (14th in the NL).  This number sucks brisket.

The Nats are still doing a decent job of getting on base outside of, you know, hitting their way on, but the power has continued to drop.  (If you’d like you can imagine Scotty from Star Trek screaming “I need more powerrrr, captain!”.)

Will it get better?  What does the BABIP say?  Are the Nats suffering from some bad luck, seeing all their batted balls go right to the other team for easy outs instead of solid singles? 

BABIP .252!

OK that’s some bad luck. It seems to suggest the Nats are getting unlucky to some degree with balls hit in play.  Add that to the fact they don’t hit balls over the fence, out of play, this ends up being big trouble.

The Nats should show some better offense, our own intuition and the numbers both suggest that.  How soon will that be?  Tought to say.  We expect to see improvement at3B once Ryan starts heating up with the tempature.  But the other positions giving nothing….Catcher could very well be a lost cause in 2008 if they really don’t have any intentions of bringing up Flores (and even then…).   Belliard might be done at 2nd base.  Kearns might hit for a higher average but the Nats need power and that’s not his strong suit. 

Left Field is the most worrisome to me.  You can’t blame the Nats for what happened in their OF.  A week or two before the season started they lost their starter and their back-up to injury.  You don’t plan for that.  Sure it showed how weak the 5th OF was on the bench, but dammit that was the 5th OF.  Willie Harris was here to run and catch, not hit. The problem is they panicked and brought back Wily Mo too early.  His lack of rehab could put him in an extended slump or worse aggravate the injury.  And then what?  Do they panic again and bring Elijah Dukes in? 

The Nats will have a better offense, but unless Belliard and LoStrada wake up, it could be a while away.  Enough time must pass for Wily Mo and/or Dukes to get healthy and back in the swing.  Enough time for Zimmerman to get hot.  Nats fans could be looking at another 9-25 start. 

This entry was posted on Monday, April 21st, 2008 at 8:33 am and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.