MVN - Most Valuable Network

2010 a Nats Oddessy

Positive…positive…positive… ACK! 

The season is over.  Any “if only they put it all together” delusions have been stomped out by the cleated foot of reality.  The Nats swung and missed on a meaningful season like they’ve swung and missed at a lot of things this year.  Even if you are that eternal optmist who thinks  that good times are just around the corner,  and you think that the Nats could sneak into the playoffs with say…88 wins or so.  That’s a 64-40 pace, basically a 100 win pace over 2/3rds of a season.  Do I think the Nats can do that?  No.  And neither should you.   Stop being so stupid.

So with the season over it’s time to focus on the future.  And by the future, I don’t mean next year, which will likely be alot like this year with a new set of faceless, punchless bench players.  I mean the 2010-2012 stretch, which is the first time any reasonable Nats fan can hope for a competitive team. (hope being the operative word). This, in my mind, means questions like “is Guzman going to be SS?” and  ”will Kearns ever earn his paycheck?”  become moot.  Too old.  Who cares.

To me the future belongs to the guys either entering their prime (late 20’s) or still with their prime in front of them.  Of course that doesn’ t mean the future is bright, but then again maybe it does (but then again maybe it doesn’t) These are the guys you should pay attention to the rest of the year, if only to focus on something to keep the relentless Chinese Loss Torture that is the Nats season from driving you insane.    

Who are these guys and how are they doing this year?   On offense we have…

THE INFIELD

Not much.  Not even on the bench.   Just Jesus and Ryan. 

Jesus Flores (23)  .338 / .408 / .574

Seriously, LoDuca?  Maybe they wanted to save year of service, maybe they just thought he needed more time, but whatever the reason, Jesus is up and Jesus is ready.  Granted the at bats are a bit limited, but he’s played very well.  Well enough to earn the starter role and GOD PLEASE don’t let it take it away from him.   I don’t care if he starts hitting an empty .250.  No LoDuca.  None.

Ryan Zimmerman (23)  .257 / .291 / .427

Yeah, he started out rough but really their are only two sets of numbers you need to look 

APR .233 / .270 / .362 

MAY .289 / .319 / .511

He’s fine, stop worrying.  (well except about the shoulder) We don’t know why it happens but it does.  The grass gets green. The flowers bloom.  Ryan stinks.  The grass gets greener. The flowers wilt away.  Ryan gets better.  Maybe it’s allergies.

 THE OUTFIELD 

Part of me hates talking about the OF as if they were 3 triplets covering the great open spaces because really they are 3 players at entirely different places in their major league life. Dukes hasn’t yet proven he can stay in the majors. Milledge (the youngest by the way) has a couple part-seasons of halfway decent baseball under his belt.   Pena is a veteran of several years with a lot of major league numbers to judge him on.   And they have different skill sets.  Dukes can field ok, and hits for power.   Milledge can pass as a corner OF and hits for average.  Pena is a power guy who needs to DH.  Even if they all had the same numbers you’d have to reach different conclusions.

Lastings Milledge (23) .246 / .315 / .357

Milledge is the one to hang your hat on.  Sure his numbers don’t look great but he slumped.  It happens. He hit well the first two weeks, crappy for a month and better in the last two weeks.  That shows me something.  Still even with the mediocre numbers above he’s the Nats best hitting OF.  His previous numbers show me he can hit major league pitching enough to contribute.  Plus I think average guys make the transition easier to the majors.  If you can hit .300+ in AA/AAA you likely can do something in the majors.

Elijah Dukes (24) .148 / .284 / .185

Dukes is the guy with all the talent but hasn’t put it all together yet.  Forget about the off the field issues for a moment.  This is a guy yet to hit over .200 in the majors.  He showed power and patience in the minors and in the majors but I’m less inclined to believe he can make it than Milledge.  A power guy still has to hit the ball to make an impact.  He hasn’t shown he can do that.

I will say that it’s been a short season so far and like Milledge, Dukes has shown improvement as the year has progressed.  This next month will be interesting, because another downturn and you have to wonder how long he can be kept in the lineup.  It’s one thing to stick with a guy, it’s another to play someone who doesn’t seem ready.

Wily Mo Pena (26) .209 / .264 / .270

It’s almost time for Wily.  He can’t field.  So he needs to hit. He needs to hit for power.  The knock was he needed more playing time.  That seemed reasonable especially after he got that playing time with the Nats at the end of last year and hit the ball all over the place. But he’s gotten all the playing time he can handle this year and he’s done nothing.

There are some disturbing trends too. His last year in Cincy? A step below the year before.  The last 1/2 year in Boston?  Two steps below the year before.  It seems like pitchers can figure him out. Power numbers decreasing each year since 2004.  And unlike Dukes and Milledge there hasn’t been a noticeable improvement at the plate.

CONCLUSION

What do the 2010 nats have then?  At least 3 starters entering their best years in Milledge, Zimmermam and Flores and one OF in Dukes likely to have some role.  This is good.  This is a base.  This is a core.  The bad news is that it’s probably not the core of a winning team.  It’s not a set of players where just a few right vets will make them a contender.  Flores could be anything right now.  Zimmerman still has the potential to be a special player but each passing year it looks like he’s going to top out at “Very good” rather than “Great”.   Milledge is never going to be that slugging OF star.   Dukes may not even make it. 

Most likely it’ll be a slightly above average C,  a very good 3B, and a average OF.  That’s not a bad thing.  They are young and cheap and a team can be built around them. It’s the core of a team with the stud players taken out.   The Nats need to get those stud players to take the next step.   They are hoping it’ll come from within but right now that doesn’t look likely.   

It brings us back to the question I have had since Day 1.  Will the owners spend money on free agents to make the team good?   We may have to see this offseason.  The fans are getting restless.  They feel they were promised if not a good team, at least an improving team and they don’t see it.  Unless things start falling into place they’ll demand some front office action this offseason.  Will the front office be willing to do it (and smart enough to do it right?).   Kasten must pray every night for Milledge and Dukes….

[Side note nothing to do with the Nats - is it just me or have we stepped into a Bizarro baseball world with the whole Joba Chamberlain thing.  Yes the coverage is overblown because it’s the Yankees.  It’s who they are (and it’s great!), but what strikes me as crazy is how many people who cover sports, who cover baseball, are saying it’s a bad move.  Are asking “Who is going to pitch the 8th inning”?   WHO THE HELL CARES? It’s the EIGTH INNING.   At what point are we going to have pundits advocating turning great lefty starter prospects into LOOGYs because a team won back to back games in that role?   “Oh Kasmir is back from injury and he’s been great against lefties coming out of the pen.   Why fix what isn’t broken? Keep him in the pen,. dog!”

Of course the problem is one of expectations.  Once a fan sees a team enter the 6th and beyond with a lead, they want that win secure.  They don’t care as much about GETTING to the 6th with a lead because I think they accept an inherent “anyone can win” philosophy going into a game.  But once you get to the late innings they want that win sewn up and they don’t care if it actually costs them overall wins for an increased certainty to hold onto late leads.   Stupid fans.  Be less stupid.]  

This entry was posted on Tuesday, June 3rd, 2008 at 10:37 am and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.