The future, Kasten?
Stop order on that Furcal jersey.
Guzmania is here to stay.(possibly)
For 2 years. I guess my thoughts that they were going to make a splash in the free agent market were ill-founded.
Who the hell cares who the GM is then. Get a monkey, a bottle of scotch, and a dartboard. (but leave the draft to Rizzo)
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6 Responses to “The future, Kasten?”
June 26th, 2008 at 6:30 am
Nats are one of the worst-hitting teams in the league, and Guzman leads the league in hits. Why not re-sign him? Without him as a stop-gap, the product on the field would be that much more ugly . . .
June 26th, 2008 at 7:57 am
Because anyone who thinks that Guzman is going to maintain that level of performance is probably also using Countrywide as a model for financial probity.
Besides, despite Guzman leading the league in hits his offensive production is barely above average. His OPS+ is 101 — thanks to his 12 walks in 356 PA and below average Isolated Power. His On Base Percentage is actually below the league average.
Guzman’s perceived value is much higher than his actual value. Let someone else pay that freight.
June 26th, 2008 at 9:00 am
I have to say, that all the blog were oh-so-certain _last_ year (when he batted .328, cut short due to injury) that there was no way he could repeat his performance this year. I’m no expert, but perhaps his vision surgery really did make a big difference. (after all, prior to his deathly 2005 performce, he averaged around .280 in the time 2001-2004). He’s only 30, it’s quite possible to get two more good years out of him.
On your second point, agreed, his BB ratio is absurdly low — but even with that, he’s still fourth on the team (active roster) in OBP (and third in SLG). (And singles are worth more than walks — which partially explains why he is also fourth on the team in RBI’s, just four off the lead — pretty good for a lead-off man). (And despite leading the team in AB, by a large margin, he’s 12th in K’s)
In my mind, I see both Dmitri and Guzman as good stop gaps — helping the Nats stay out of historically-disastrous seasons — while the youngsters develop. Surely, if either were blocking the promotion of somebody, I’d get rid of them. But (I could be wrong) I don’t see any SS on the horizon, and the good 1B’s in the minors are both two years away from the bigs.
Again, look at the team: Milledge, Dukes, Flores, Zimmerman are all only 23, and all have upside. It’s OK to have 1-2 30-somethings in the mix, especially when they are both top four in OBP and the biggest weakness of the team is offense (the teams is dead last in in the league in BA, OBP, SLG, and runs scored — while for pitching — on the other hand, we are “only” 14th (of 16) in team ERA! (Uggh)).
Many fans complain that the Nats are squandering good-will by fielding awful teams until “The Plan” comes to fruition. But they can’t have it both ways. Those who complain that they are squandering good-will now can’t also complain that we should trade Dmitri or Guzman for future talent. Yes, neither of them are part of the future. OTOH, if the Nats are only 3 games above the worst record in the majors now, I shudder to think what it would have looked like without those two players.
(Note: I do see one SS prospect in the Nats organization, Esmailyn Gonzalez. He’s got a lot of potential, and worth keeping an eye on (for those geeks who follow the minors, like I do). But he’s not even 19 yet — he’s with the GCL Nationals (Rookie) league this year).
June 26th, 2008 at 9:21 am
I wouldn’t say “good” years but I think you could get two more “Guzman” years out of him. If the alternative is two years of another cheapo SS, I say go with the the cheapo you feel confident won’t be out of baseball in two years time. (I feel more confident about that seeing how Guzman got unlucky in 2005 - BABIP was like .220 something. It was still a bad year but he should have hit like .240 not .210.)
Of course I wish the only options weren’t el cheapo ones…
June 26th, 2008 at 9:45 am
I confess I don’t know the details of the contract extension, but his salary for 2007 was $4.2m — I’m not sure you can get another SS that can hit .310 for that cheap.
June 26th, 2008 at 10:12 am
Yeah and if you believe he’ll hit .300+, even with his side numbers 4.2 mill would be a good deal. Now for 6.5 million a year and .270+ (I think he’d get more - despite just hitting average he’ll likely have the 2nd/3rd best year for a SS going into free agency) I’m not so sure. But I’d rather see that than 2 million a year for .230+….
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