Crystal Ball Predictions
These aren’t things that I want to happen, or things that should happen, but just what the numbers and feelings tell me what happens.
Austin Kearns will have a decent 2nd half. He’s not a great player, or even a good player, (well ok he is a good player but his skills - getting on base, fielding well, just don’t fit with his corner outfielder position, so he’ll never make enough people happy. Imagine how the Lerner’s would feel with a GM who could identify the right high price talent to go after, that’s how the fans feel for Kearns) but he’s better than he has been so far this year. He was plauged with a low BABIP (.234) before the injury, but it’s been high since coming back. Don’t expect any power though.
Zimmerman too will have a nice second half. It’s Zimmerman. It’s the 2nd half. It’s just what happens.
Jesus Flores will continue to struggle (BABIP .341 for the season), Elijah Dukes will struggle coming back from injury (.339), and Guzman will see his average drop below .300 (.332). I suspect that may mean a demotion very soon for Flores (either to back-up or to AAA - LoDuca isn’t going to get traded to someone to play LF and 1B. He needs a showcase)
Odalis Perez won’t be traded. Ramon Ortiz wasn’t. Esteban Loaiza wasn’t. Livan was but I get the feeling that only happened because he made some $. No, the Nats don’t deal decent cheap pitching, even if it is old. Rauch won’t be dealt either. Sorry.
Who will be traded? LoDuca. Lopez. Maaaaaaaybe Young.
Lannan will get to at least 12 wins. I don’t think anyone who comes up will distinguish themselves this year. At best we’ll see a 2007 Chico-esque performance. (prove me wrong Balester, prove me wrong)
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17 Responses to “Crystal Ball Predictions”
July 17th, 2008 at 3:53 am
Wow. That will mean a second half evey bit as disappointing as the first. If the Nats want to keep dirt-cheap pitching, then they should only keep Tim Redding. As for Kearns, I am really hoping that the Mets listen to one of their columnists and get him in a trade.
LoDuca, Lopez and Young would bring next to nothing back in return. That said, I would welcome all three trades. I’d like the trades better if pulled off by a more talented GM, but we have who we have.
July 17th, 2008 at 8:18 am
I’m higher on Kearns than you are, and think (hope?) he’ll go on a little tear. I think Flores stays in DC, but starts 2 days a week and is the first PH. I think you’re dead on on the SP situation.
My questions are (maybe a future post), who’s going to lead this team in wins? Lannan’s predicted 12? Redding? Hanrahan?
And who of the September call ups will earn themselves a good shot at opening day 09?
July 17th, 2008 at 8:53 am
I would predict that our starting pitching will get worse. Perez and Redding aren’t this good, and Lannan I think is pitching over his head. Bergmann could get a lot better or worse.
I agree totally with 1/2 street that if the only guys we deal are Lo Duca, Lopez, and Young then we might as well do nothing. OK, that’s overstating. Young isn’t worthless. If that’s really the only players they deal, then that’s really disappointing. I’m not exaggerating the trade value of our over-27 vets, but Rauch, Rivera, Guzman–these guys should be able to fetch some value.
I also predict that Milledge will hit better.
July 17th, 2008 at 9:41 am
+ 1/2 : It’ll be better. Zimmerman paired with Young gives the Nats two legitimite hitters, and it’ll help Dukes and Milledge out too. The offense will perk up a bit.
bean: I think he can go on a tear but even since being back and hitting well he’s still only slugging .429. There’s just no more pop there. I think Redding and Lannan will end up with 12. One of those two should do it though. Hanrahanwould just be following up on last years leader (Rauch with a mere 8)
Fire Jimbo : Perez might crash (moderately high whip - hasn’t had this low an ERA since 2004) but Redding is what he’s showing. There’s no chance of a step up for him into something better, but if his ERA ends up being much greater than what it is now I’d be surprised. I’d like them to trade more too but their history suggests nothing of the sort. Mainly it’s old relievers that go in those “give-away” deals.
July 17th, 2008 at 10:06 am
I honestly can’t really see a trade happening. There is no worth in this team, except for the young guys who will will/should not trade.
I agree Kearns will not remain as bad as he is right now, but frankly he’s useless to us as anything other than a utility outfielder. We may also have to face the reality that Zimmerman is two years away from being Austin Kearns for a New Generation.
Beantown: Do you know a bar that shows games? I’m in Boston too and haven’t been able to see much.
July 17th, 2008 at 10:47 am
I think it is much more likely that Zimmerman’s comeback will fail and that he will need shoulder surgery that will end his season. I doubt there will be any interest in Young. Who needs a 350 pound singles hitter who can’t play in the field?
July 17th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
I agree with Ben - who would you trade that COULD get you value? The few players who fit that bill are guys you wouldn’t want to trade or shouldn’t trade. You wouldn’t trade Zim (assuming he gets healthy) and really shouldn’t trade Blastings or Duke unless you get a killer deal (which you won’t). If this team is going to be good anytime in the near future, those three have to be a part of it, so you have to recoup that if you trade them.
July 17th, 2008 at 12:34 pm
Guzman is very tradeable, especially since he’s a 4 month rental, but for that same reason, he’s unlikely to fetch a real piece to the puzzle. I think we might send him off for the rest of the season for a Martis-type player and then resign him for something like 2yr/$6m in the offseason. I’d take that.
@Ben: To be honest, I haven’t really looked. Most satellite tv bars will put on what you request, as long as the other 90% of tvs are on the sox
note: so this only applies to bars with 10+ tvs :)
July 17th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
3 trades is a pretty high number but I have to believe they’ve seen all they need from LoDuca and Lopez and will jettison them for whatever they can get. If LoDuca shows he can still catch - he’ll get some interest and someone will take a flier on Lopez who is fixable is a MI with some pop. I also think that Young, a clubhouse favorite, “veteran presence”, guy who can switch hit would be one of those deals GMs love at the trade deadline. But he needs to keep hitting all the way through until then because of his contract
bean; NO WAY guzman signs a 2 yr / 6million dollar deal with anyone. It’s going to be higher and longer unless he just tanks in the 2nd half.
July 17th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
but JimBo says we’ll get a discount!!
July 17th, 2008 at 2:12 pm
Honestly I have to believe that if anyone had offered anything of any worth for these guys they would already be gone, with the exception of Guzman, who they seem to want to resign.
If LoDuca, Lopez and Young are still around it’s because no on has the slightest interest in them. Not that you can blame other teams for this. They are useless.
July 17th, 2008 at 5:56 pm
rauch is the highest value guy who makes sense to deal.
July 17th, 2008 at 6:14 pm
I’ve also got a bad feeling along the lines of what Phil Dunn said about Zimmerman’s shoulder…fingers crossed the rest of the way, I guess.
Bet Rauch gets dealt, probably unlikely anyone else will. But we can still dream…
July 17th, 2008 at 9:03 pm
The team could have Rauch for 2 million next year and 2.9 million in 2010 (if they exercise the option) It’s a good deal (for example - Cordero is making 6.2 million this season). Because of this they’ll only let Rauch go for a top notch minor leaguer, a guy ready to start in the majors.
Won’t happen.
July 17th, 2008 at 9:36 pm
No doubt, Rauch’s deal is good. But I have a hard time making an argument that there’s a better chance guys like LoDuca, Lopez, or Young will be dealt (ie: essentially useless spare parts to any other contending team) before the guy with the highest trade value goes. Rauch is a goner. I bet you a giant Nats #1 foam finger on it.
July 17th, 2008 at 11:15 pm
Rauch is a good deal, but I think that any time you can get a long term deal for a reliever you should take it. If this year has taught us anything, it is that conventional wisdom concerning the longevity of relievers being temperamental is absolutely right.
July 18th, 2008 at 3:05 pm
Harper–If I get what you’re saying, you think Rauch won’t get dealt *because* he’s cheap and desirable from a contract perspective. If you take that approach, when will you *ever* make a trade of any consequence? I mean, you’re basically saying the only players the team would deal are guys whose value is seriously reduced by their contract. I know you aren’t saying this is what they *should* do, but if that’s really what you think the Nationals are doing, that’s quite an indictment. It means that the team isn’t really serious about improving via trades.
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