Guzman leads a pack of early American slap-hitters to a West Coast road trip
Guzmanifest Destiny
“And that claim is by the right of our Guzmanifest destiny to overspread and to possess the whole of the lineup which Providence and Parsimoniousness has given us for the development of the great experiment of light hitting and federal league talent entrusted to us.”
This is all an overly elaborate way of saying I’m not happy with the way things turned out yesterday. First things first. As you might imagine, I think it was a bad deal. Apologies to those that think it isn’t, but it is. Guzman isn’t good. He doesn’t get on base. He doesn’t hit for power. He’s ok in the field. That’s not worth 8 million dollars.
Yes, he’s had a good past year or so of at bats, but it’s far more likely to be a fluke than a lasting change. History tells us Guzman is a .270 / .300 / .380 hitter. That’s pretty much what he was from 24-26 before the flukey horrible season, the injury, and now the balancing flukey good stretch. Trends tell us that he’s not as good as he’s hitting now. His power is trending down (.487 in May, .380 in June, .356 in July). He’s not getting on base at a better rate (isoOBP hovers at about .030 each month - which is a fancy way of saying he don’t walk much at all). Age tells us he should start to decline. Why shouldn’t we believe the combination of historical stats, current stats, and basic older=worse knowldege?
He’s had success this year mainly because he’s been able to cut down on his strikeouts, and leg out those 2-3 extra base hits a month. That was fine in April and May but as the year goes on you get a little more tired, a little slower out of the box. If it wasn’t for a little luck with his BABIP in June and July we would have seen a more pronounced decline. His K rate is also heading back in the wrong direction. It’s likely to be a declining second half for Guzman.
So to keep that type of player around is questionable in itself, but we all know by now the Nats really don’t have anything in the minors to replace him, so maybe you do hold onto Guzman. He shouldn’t be awful, just below average. But to do it for 8 million a year is where it gets crazy. It’s one thing to send out a bleh shortstop, it’s another thing to make him the team’s highest paid player. The ONLY saving grace is the time frame, as two-year deals don’t hamper a team for two long.
I also wasn’t too happy with the deal for Emilio “Guzman II: Guz Harder” Bonifacio. Not that I was sad to see Rauch go. I was certainly surprised to see that happen, after so many years of not dealing Cordero, but I guessed they learned from that. Rauch was good, had a good chance of staying healthy (his starters history gives him better arm strength in my opinion), and was cheap, but relievers are fungible and you should deal them if you can get something interesting back. So they did, for someone just barely interesting, someone exactly the type of player Guzman is.
[Harper - note - I was a bit too harsh here. Bonaficio is an interesting prospect to be sure. Not a great one, maybe not even a good one, but one certainly with enough talent and of the right age to take a look at]
If you take a look at Bonafacio’s minor league stats you see a guy who doesn’t walk or hit for power, who K’s alot, whose offense must be based on legging out a lot of slap hits. Chances are he’ll likely struggle to hit in the majors. Supposedly his defense is top notch, and that’s certainly a plus, but on a team as offensively challenged as the Nats you can’t afford to have a player that can’t hit, not when there are so many others that have the same problem, not right after you signed a deal for a guy who can’t hit. Defense isn’t the #1 reason this team is losing games. In itself it’s not a horrible deal, but taken with the Guzman signing it looks like 2 years of having 3 useless hitter slots in the lineup. That’s tough to swallow.
And just to top it off we get Bowden crowing again
general manager Jim Bowden went so far as to say that Bonifacio is slated to be the everyday second baseman and leadoff hitter for the Nationals in 2009.
For the love of GOD someone stop this man from talking to the press. The kid has all of 7 major league hits. He seems ready for a longer major league tryout but then again those are PCL stats and he’s below average overall (though probably not for a 2nd baseman). He should get a try, but don’t proclaim him a long-term solution just yet. Of course you can’t can you? Pretty soon he’ll be 2nd base version of Jose Reyes, or hell, why not Chase Utley? Joe Morgan? Hornsby? If you’re going to say stupid things at least try to top your previous stupidities.
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21 Responses to “Guzmanifest Destiny”
July 23rd, 2008 at 1:51 am
Amen!
July 23rd, 2008 at 4:08 am
At least he has stellar defense.
July 23rd, 2008 at 8:19 am
I haven’t even read the article yet, but …
Guzmanifest Destiny?
Best headline ever on this site.
July 23rd, 2008 at 8:23 am
“The Plan” appears to be to assemble a historically bad offense. I can only imagine the team then hopes to use their lack of punch to lull opponents into a false sense of security during which the Nats can hit a bloop home run, or a couple slap singles in a row.
July 23rd, 2008 at 8:50 am
I don’t mind Guzman but that’s an awful lot of money for him…
I think the Dbacks got Rauch on the cheap. Surprised this is the most they could for Rauch. I know there’s a paucity of M’infs in the organization but I hate hearing about a guy’s speed.
Regardless of sport, when someone raves about speed it’s usually b/c the other skills aren’t up to snuff. It’s great to take a flier on speed, but for Rauch it would have been nice to get something more.
July 23rd, 2008 at 9:13 am
You are never going to get a top talent for a reliever. Relievers are notoriously streaky and inconsistent from season to season. Rauch may be just about the most consistent reliever ever, but no smart GM is ever going to sell the farm for relief pitching. For every Rivera (Mariano) there is a Cordero or Rivera (Saul) and Madjewski (or however you bloody spell it!)
The stat that gives me hope for Bonifacio is that other that one exceptional year at single A, his stats have improved at every level. That shows, to my mind, that although he may not have great discipline at the the plate he is constantly learning, and adjusting to the level he’s at. But what do I know. Four years of being a Nat’s fan, and twelve with the Expos means the shakes has reached a pretty advanced stage. I’m easily fooled
The Guzman deal just shows that the team doesn’t think it’s going to compete for another few years. He staves off having to wade into a terrible free agent market at SS this year. Or maybe he’s actually this good. He does have a good arm, and he can play third base apparently. Now where’s that gin…
July 23rd, 2008 at 9:18 am
The Plan…ha! The Plan is now pretty much exposed as a half-plan. Build the minors until the Nats get a decent young team. Until then in the majors: Throw up our hands and say “What a nice park! Buy Tickets!”.
As for EB, you can’t teach speed, right? unfortunately I don’t think you can REALLY teach hitting. Tweak it here and there - but talent is going to win out and we just don’t know if he’s got that talent.
I think everyone is feeling the same way about the deal - not enthused - bit disappointing.- needed but thought we could get more.
July 23rd, 2008 at 9:31 am
Ben - I guess Bonaficio is a B- type prospect when the Nats fans thought the team could get maybe a B+ one. What you say is totally what we would do as GMs but that’s not what all GMs would do.
as for Guzman - yeah I don’t think they think they;ll compete for a while but I’d love to see them not sign Guzman and say not sign LoDuca and then use that 13-15 million for the next 2 years to make a run at a good player. shorter term deal.
July 23rd, 2008 at 9:59 am
Like you say, if you and I were GM… No Guzman, no Lo Duca. But if they didn’t sign him we’d be saying they’re too cheap. My feeling is stick Desmond in there, and he can merrily dissapoint us for half the money, or spend your money on a really good free agendt. This is just half-arsed.
Like you say, it’s not ‘The Plan’, it’s not abandoning the ‘The Plan’. It’s just half arsing the The Plan.
July 23rd, 2008 at 10:06 am
“s for Guzman - yeah I don’t think they think they;ll compete for a while but I’d love to see them not sign Guzman and say not sign LoDuca and then use that 13-15 million for the next 2 years to make a run at a good player. shorter term deal.”
Even with Guzman doubling his salary, team will be up $7+ million w/o Lopez, Estrada, LoDuca, Rauch. So I think they can sign Guzman and make a run at a $15 million player and still be possibly under the MLB average. I’d guess they’d go for a corner OF, SP or 2b, b/c the rest of the team seems pretty set unless they trade Young or Nick johnson. For 2009, team is now set at SS, 3rd, 1st, C, CF and arguably LF with Dukes.
And given the track record, i’d be shocked if they plunked down 10+ million plus for a SP when the reclamation projects have mostly worked out and they’re treading water for a few more years.
BTW, with Bray having a very good year and Majewski no longer sucking the trade isn’t quite as bad from a Reds perspective. Still think it was a great trade for the Nats even with Lopez implosion.
July 23rd, 2008 at 12:44 pm
I wouldn’t even say it’s half-assing the plan. “The Plan” never had that major league component. It was just (logically) added in by us fans.
Our Plan : Build up the minors and in the meantime try to field a competitive mid-range payroll team.
Their Plan; Build up the minors.
That’s why I don’t see them going after anyone this offseason, despite what the Nats could use. There is no improvement plan through free agency. Doesn’t exist. That 7 million they are”up” will likely be tossed into 5-6 more back-up type players.
July 23rd, 2008 at 2:47 pm
That’s why I don’t see them going after anyone this offseason, despite what the Nats could use. There is no improvement plan through free agency. Doesn’t exist.
Said it over at my place too: I can picture the organization trumpeting this Guzman signing during the offseason when they don’t go spend money anywhere else: “See, we committed $16 mil to an All Star! We care about the here and now! Now, re-up your season ticket packages, suckers! (see you in 2011!)
July 23rd, 2008 at 4:00 pm
I usually like your stuff, but I disagree with about everything here. A few points:
1. Guz was in the last year of his contract. There’s no one else to play SS if Guz leaves, no one anywhere near ready in the minors. You can knock is weak SLG all you want, but it’s only .007 behind Zimmerman’s. Guz is also second on the team in RBI’s — not bad for a guy who’s played lead-off so often. You want Felipe Lopez to be the regular SS? And, really, leading the league is hits is not chopped liver. (He leads the team in doubles, too). The teams biggest weakness is runs scored — Guzman leads the team. If you think the team s*cks now, try it with, say, Lopez playing instead of Guz all year at SS. Spend our money of a really good free agent? At SS? Yeah — like who? Furcal?
2. Yes, the loss of Rauch hurts. But you have to give something to get. There are some that hold the theory that a everday position player is usually worth more than a reliever, unless the latter is truly outstanding.
3. Everyone here is way too harsh on Bonifacio. His speed is real (he stole 41 bases last year, ande over 50 in each of the prior two years), and he made the all-star team in the Pacific Coast League, which is pretty good for guy who just turned 23 (he was Southern League (AA) all star the year before, and Calf League (high A) all start the year before that). Is he guaranteed to be a star? No. But the fact that he’s hitting over .300 at PCL and still has obvious areas of improvement (just keep Lenny Harris away from him!), tells us that it’s a gamble with potential for big upside. *If* he ends up being a pretty good every-day player and lead-off man, this trade will look pretty good.
4. Why is everyone criticizing THE PLAN so much? We all knew it would take years. Has anyone been following what’s been going on in the minors? The list of accomplishments is too long to list here. There are a whole slew of players with major potential (almost all of them pitchers) coming up. Potomac kicked butt the first half of the season, and most of those players have already been moved up to AA, and a few, quite recently, to AAA. Most of the players — if they continue to progress — won’t hit the Nats until 2010. (A few, perhaps sooner, and a very few may get some Sept call-ups this year).
So, what do you do until these guys hit the big-leagues in two years? Well, when hitting is one of your weak spots, you keep guys who can hit .300 — like, say, Guz, for two years.
July 23rd, 2008 at 4:32 pm
1) Guzman leads the team in a bunch of stats because he’s had what is becoming an average year where everyone else on the Nats has been bad or injured. He leads the league in hits, in part because he leades the league in at bats, He’ll probably be better than the free agents the Nats could get but that’s only in comparison. The question you have to ask is whether or not the difference between a Guzman and a crappy FA is worth the 6-7 million per year. I say no
(I also say no way Guzman ends the year .040 within Zimmerman’s slugging)
2) I’m fine dealing Rauch. He’s a good player to keep because of his positives but that also makes him a good player to deal and if you can get something back for him, by all means deal. Even though I’m not enthused about this deal, it’s far better than if they didn’t deal him, in my mind.
3) Sorry but I don’t see the potential for big upside. That’s not to say the deal doesn’t work. I agree that if he makes it as an everyday 2nd baseman for even just a few years the trade works out in the Nats favor. Doesn’t even have to be pretty good - he can just be completely average. However, I look at the minor league stats and think the chances of even that are a coin flip.
Again - it’s not a bad trade and it may work out just fine (if he ends up being pretty good it would work out great). You just get the feeling the Nats might have been able to do a little better.
4) I think criticism of the Plan went up when people realized they were serious about not spending any serious money on the majors. Sorry, but fans want the team in front of them to be at least decent and the Nats have barely scraped that the past 3 years. EVERYONE loves the success in the minors, not everyone believes it had to come at the expense of quality in the majors.
July 23rd, 2008 at 6:38 pm
I don’t understand the dislike of the Guzman deal. We weren’t going to get a better SS and there isn’t a SS ready in the system. Guzman might not be amazing but he is above average which on the Nats makes him our best player. 8 mill a year is less than he would have gotten on the FA market and less than we would have had to pay for a FA SS who wasn’t just a tomato can. I just don’t understand how on one hand people can be upset about the team not focusing on the major league squad and then on the other not be happy with them paying money to secure the best player on the major league team for the next two years.
I’m just happy the team spent money at all.
Also, I don’t know how good Bonafacio could be, but I imagine Rizzo knows a lot more about him than you or I.
I think it is a mistake to value Rauch as what he was for our team which was the best pitcher and the closer and rather look at how other teams valued him which was as a middle reliever. 2B prospect for middle reliever I will take.
July 23rd, 2008 at 6:45 pm
How do you not see at least _potential_ for upside? .302 in the PCL for a 23 yo, despite having some possibly easily correctable weaknesses is a good combination for “potential”. And he’s been in all star at three different levels. And he’s had 40 or more stolen bases four straight minor league seasons . . .
As for your statement: “Guzman leads the team in a bunch of stats because he’s had what is becoming an average year where everyone else on the Nats has been bad or injured” — well, yeah, that’s kind of the point. But if you call his hitting over .300 “average” for him, then all the more reason to sign him.
Most guys like Guz get 4 year contracts. We signed him for two. I don’t think it’s a bad move, especially for those who complain that we need a better product now.
July 23rd, 2008 at 8:50 pm
I agree with Patrick and DC Wonk. You’re way too negative, dude. It’s so easy to whine and complain when the team is not succeeding. But I am confident they are on the way and that these moves (mainly the Bonifacio pickup), are building blocks.
I know bloggers are supposed to act kinda cranky, but give it rest.
July 23rd, 2008 at 9:18 pm
1) bloggers are cranky
2) i don’t like cranky people
3) i read blogs
what am I missing?
DC Wonk — .302 is fine, but the PCL and Tucson especially are BIG hitters leagues. .302 there isn’t like .302 at RFK. It’s more like .302 at Coors Field. Good enough, I guess, but it’s superficially high. Look at his other stats. He doesn’t walk. He doesn’t hit for power. The sum total of his batting approach: hit singles.
That works when you’re in a hitter’s park playing against minor league defense, but… Sure, he COULD break out, but he’s just as (if not more) likely to just flame out.
Try this: go to baseball-reference.com. Look for some hitters that you think he could turn into: Castillo, Reyes, Taveras, Bourn, etc. There’s a little link there for each of them “minors”. Click on that and see what they hit by way of comparison. I haven’t done it myself, but I’d bet anything that he’s a hell of a lot closer to the last two than the first two, and even then, I’d bet that those two (maybe not Bourn?) outperformed him in the minors.
July 23rd, 2008 at 9:25 pm
Patrick - I guess the Guzman deal comes down to whether or not you really believe Guzman is “the best player on the major league team” as you say. The player having the best season this year, sure but I would put him behind Zimm, Nick, Dmitri, and would be real tempted about placing him behind Dukes, Flores, maybe even Kearns going forward…
DC Wonk - I said potential for BIG upside. I can see upside, a scenario where Bonaficio becomes a .290 / .330 / .420 type hitter and plays second base flawlessly everyday. That would be a very useful 2b, very cheap, but not very good. Just pretty good. I don’t see pretty good as big upside. I also don’t think guzman hitting .300 is average. I think he’s above average now but heading to his level, like .270 or though. His strong start will keep him from hitting it though.
July 24th, 2008 at 9:35 am
Chris — if you last name is Needham I have to tell you I very much miss your blog!
I only had time to check for one — I picked the first on your list, Luis Castillo. He batted .287 in his last full season of AAA! (Doh! ;-) )
As to your assertion that the PCL is a big hitters league — I was unaware of that. But then why did he make the all-star team? (for the third straight year in his third level)
Harper — you say that you could see him hitting .290 in the bigs. You think that “not very good”?
As I’ve said — I’m not saying Bonifacio’s going to be great. But a 23-yo who strikes out too much but still hits .302 in AAA seems to have potential for improvement.
But I’ll admit I’m biased because everyone says Rizzo is awesome, and Rizzo’s the one who wanted Bonifacio.
July 24th, 2008 at 9:45 pm
an empty .290 - lots of singles, no walks, is just ok. if he doesn’t get on base it means he’s creating a lot of outs and that’s bad. Now he can make up for it in peripherals…an empty .290 with 60 out of 65 in stolen base attempts and gold glove defense, that starts getting there but we’re asking for flawless baserunning and fielding. I don’t think you can rely on that.
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