A couple things
Just to clear up a few possible misconceptions
The trade
Trading Rauch was the right move. Out of your non-bench players a relief pitcher is the low man on the totem pole. He goes for pretty much anything decent.
I don’t think it was a bad trade. I don’t think it was a great trade. It was a “meh” to good trade, a 6.5 out of 10, a B-.
Why is it not a bad trade? The Nats need middle infielders, and there is potential here. If Emilio Bonificio gives the Nats even just a few years of about average starting play at 2B, it was a win for the Nats (barring Rauch turning into Mariano or something).
Why is it not a great trade? I think the chances of Emilio meeting those modest goals are only about 50%. I think his hitting will always lag behind.
I think the Nats could have done better, but that doesn’t mean I think the Nats did poorly. I’m not down on the deal as much as I’m wary about it.
The deal
This is all dependent of what you think about Guzman.
If you think he is what he’s shown so far .307 / .338 / .419, then I’d say it was a good deal for the Nats.
If you think he’s like his career average .266 / .305 / .382, then it becomes a question of what else, if anything, could have been done.
If you think it’s likely he’ll be hitting below his career average, then it’s a bad deal.
You can guess where I stand.
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3 Responses to “A couple things”
July 24th, 2008 at 9:01 am
What kind of grading system gives a B- for a 65?
July 24th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
I actually think that the deals probably are an exact reflection of the people that made them. Rizzo has apparently been after Benaficio for a long time. Paid slightly over the odds unless he knows something we don’t. I might like to have seen a ‘Matt Chico’ thrown in but there you have it… I don’t make deals for a living so I don’t know. But Rizzo is youth oriented and he made the deal. We needed some youth in the middle of the infield.
The Guzman is classic Bowden. He looked at the SS market for the summer, realised that what he’s have to give up, wouldn’t get him quality, and that the good shortstops would not be signing for the Nationals. If you know you can’t get the best guys snap up the second tier guy before the rich kids wander out of the free agent market and offer more than we have. Tori Hunter anyone? That leaves us scrapping for a player of Guzmans quality but, in a market where other guys are getting four year deals. A team can certainly finish in third or fourth with Guzman in the line-up so he fits where we are going to be for the next two years (if you are optimistic, no less).
The deals aren’t perfect, but they are certainly not bad. Like you say.
July 24th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
im thinking that the brass figured, they paid guz 16m for 1 good year, they are banking that he has 1 good year out of two for the same ROI. maybe a lot to ask. most likely the good (better) year will be 2010 (contract year) or about the same time that a lot of prospects will be prominently featured on the club. i def think that played into the importance of getting a 2 year deal.
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