Phils Do The Right Thing By Doing Nothing
Philadelphia is a very tough city to live in sometimes. It’s frustrating to have to deal everyday with the stereotypical Philly fans, who, in all fairness, are much like all other stereotypical big-city fans. This is the type of place where, more often than not, most fans are only appeased when moves are made for the sake of making a move. On this particular July 31, no moves were necessary.
No trade would have improved the Phillies without further damaging the team’s already barren farm system. Yes, this may be the year they have the best shot at competing for a championship, but would trading Jason Donald for Ron Mahay have made much of a difference? Would getting rid of J.A. Happ, who has been very impressive in Triple-A and his brief stint in the majors this year, been beneficial if it was only in return for a two-month lefty specialist like Brian Fuentes?
Many fans have been clamoring for Jason Bay (who went to the Red Sox earlier as part of the 3-team deal for Manny Ramirez.) The asking price in a two-team deal for Bay was absurdly high, and there would have been nowhere to put him. Yes, he would have been an upgrade over Jayson Werth or Geoff Jenkins in right field, but Werth is a player Charlie Manuel loves to have in the lineup, and Jenkins was the Phillies biggest financial offseason signing. They weren’t ready to give up on either of them, especially if it also meant letting go of a plethora of minor league talent.
If the Phillies weren’t on a four-game losing streak, I would have the same thoughts on this season’s trade deadline. Nothing made sense. Nothing was essential. The only piece the Phillies needed a few weeks ago, and still need due to the fact that Joe Blanton just isn’t very good, is a starting pitcher. They missed out on CC Sabathia because they couldn’t compete with the Brewers offer. After his name went off the market, no earth shattering move was close to being made, because nobody else commanded the ridiculous value that teams wanted this year.
The only move that looked very intriguing was the rumored Matt Holliday and Fuentes for Shane Victorino, Happ, Lou Marson, and Carlos Carrasco. Holliday would have given the Phillies an absolutely deadly 3-4-5-6, but the cost was, once again, too high. Had the Phillies made this deal, which was deemed close to occurring by Jayson Stark and Ken Rosenthal, they would have said goodbye to their top pitching prospect (Carrasco), their likely catcher of the future (Marson), a lefty with tremendous upside (Happ), and most of all, a great defensive centerfielder with tremendous speed and decent power (Victorino). Worth it? I’d have to say no again, given that Fuentes would be a rental and Holliday would be hard to re-sign with Ryan Howard and Cole Hamels still awaiting their paydays.
If the Phillies don’t make the playoffs this season, it won’t be because they didn’t pick up a situational lefty or because they didn’t mortgage every bit of their future for rent-a-players. It will be because they failed to create a big gap between themselves and the Mets and Marlins early in the season.
For any of my fellow Philadelphians offended by the first paragraph, let me say this: I love Philadelphia. I love the teams, I love the atmosphere, I love the passion of the fans, and in my 19 years of existence I’ve even grown to love the pain and heartbreak this city has dealt with since 1983. The long drought has only made us all more passionate about our teams, which is understandable. I don’t have a problem with those who call into radio shows and are overly pessimistic about the particular season. They’ve earned that right by being jerked around for so many years by teams that always fall short.
I do have a problem, however, with the obnoxious fans who give Philly crowds the reputation we have, of being loud-mouthed (insert curse word here.) I have a problem with every caller who blasts Pat Gillick for not making a move here, or every caller who yells trade Howard when he strikes out but praises him after he homers. I know it’s hard to be objective or fair all the time, because I, too, get frustrated by Howard when he throws a ball into left field or strikes out in a key moment. But the constant fickleness and necessity to place blame is what gets to me. It’s what possessed me to post this after hearing too many know-it-all’s yell on 610 about how the Phillies are doomed for not making a move.
Sometimes the best trades are the one’s that don’t happen.
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4 Responses to “Phils Do The Right Thing By Doing Nothing”
August 1st, 2008 at 8:48 am
The problem, as I see it, is this - the “farm system” is mostly A and AA ballplayers. Few to none of these prospects are going to be any help to this, or the next few years, of Phillies teams.
This team as constructed can clobber bad teams with bad to mediocre pitching, but has trouble with the Mets, Red Sox, etc. etc. You know, playoff teams.
The old adage that Pitching wins in the playoffs is true, becuase teams shrink their rotations to only pitch good pitchers. Plus, batting, streaky on a good day, is even more so against quality pitching.
So here’s the result as I see it. Assuming the Phils win the division, a big if at this point, they probably lose Game 1 3-2, bats are cold against good pitching. Lose Game 2 4-1. Bats cold. Game 3 they win 13-6. Bats hot hot hot. Game 4 they lose 8-5. Bat hotter, pitching not so good.
August 1st, 2008 at 8:53 am
My point is that this team can’t win, not with any consistency, in the playoffs as constructed. A trade could have bolstered them and maybe given them a shot.
None of the “talent” you want to protect will help this year, next year or maybe even the year after.
plus, its not as if the farm is so stocked that in 3-5 years, when this crop of phils is declining or gone, that it will be able to restock. So why not give up the farm and try to win? Restock the farm in future drafts.
In essence, you’ve chosen a first round, one win, playoff exit and being just above bad to average in 3-5 years because of no farm system over a shot at winning in the first first round, maybe a trip to the WS, and being bad in 3-5. There’s no, repeat NO upside to not trading. Not short term (no chance in the playoffs), not in the long term (no farm to speak of to protect).
August 1st, 2008 at 8:59 am
By the way, just because its your opinion, and is contrary to the majority, doesn’t make it the right one, or any of us any less “loud-mouthed” or irrational.
And no, if the Phils don’t win their division (and if they don’t they probably won’t make the playoffs) it won’t be because they didn’t get a big enough lead early. Baseball is a long season, and the entire thing counts. If they don’t make it, it will be because they weren’t good enough. That will fall mostly on the pitching, but also on the streaky hitting.
Did you know that 100+ of the Phils’ runs this season have come in 5 games? That’s right, 5 games of 20+ runs. In the others they average like 2 runs/game. That’s the Phils’ problem. They seem good, but in reality, they just explode one game, and struggle to win the next three. That won’t get it done in the playoffs.
August 1st, 2008 at 1:03 pm
Bryan - first off, the Phillies have scored 20 runs twice this season. So that fact you gave can’t possibly be correct, but I do see your point about them exploding one night and being stagnant the next, that’s been a problem for years now.
Second, I never stated, nor do I think that guys like Jason Donald, Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson will “save” the Phillies or be their core in a few years, but you never know. Some guys don’t hit their stride for a while, or don’t hit it at all until reaching the majors.
Regardless of what level the Phils top prospects are in, and regardless of what their current skill level is, trading away the best pieces damages the farm system and the future. It damages it by making average players your new top prospects, and it damages it by shackling the Phillies from making any future trades.
Say they gave up Donald for Mahay. Say they gave up Carrasco and Marson (and likely Happ or another prospect) for another starter, or add Victorino in for that Holliday/Fuentes package that everyone would be bashing a year from now. Then, the Phillies would have absolutely ZERO resources to complete any deal in the next few years without taking away key components from the major league team.
And I’m pretty sure you took the first paragraph of the article the wrong way. I wasn’t saying that anyone who wanted a trade was irrational, I was saying that anyone who is blasting Gillick and calling the Phillies a terrible organization for not making moves like the Angels, Dodgers, etc. is irrational. Those teams are in MUCH different positions, and have much more to offer at lower levels.
Of course I would have welcomed Manny Ramirez here, of course I would have loved to have another starter. But with the value every other GM wanted this season, nobody was even close to worth it. Which is why Gillick didn’t make a move. The one exception was Ramirez, who was only sent to the Dodgers for so little because of timing. The Red Sox needed him out, and got him out at the last second.
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