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Tony and the Big Four

First came the argument, posed by the Post-Gazette’s “Stats Geek,” Brian O’Neill, that the Pirates have a chance—however slim—of winning a weak NL Central Division in 2007.

Charlie from Bucs Dugout didn’t agree, and he made his opinion known. So known, in fact, that Stats Geek found out and published a re-rebuttal, if such a concept exists. (And, for what it’s worth, Charlie fired back once more.)

This morning, O’Neill continues on with the discussion topic, providing “A to-do list for a winning ‘07 for [the] Pirates,” excerpted here:

…The Pirates could contend in their division (and only their division) if “absolutely everything goes right”:

• Three Who Can Hit go to the plate 1,600 times or more.
• The young quartet of starting pitchers betters its 4.56 earned run average in 107 starts last year.
• The gloves cover more ground.
• Duffy plays like it’s late summer, and not spring, all season long.
• The bullpen doesn’t miss a beat.
• Backup catchers can’t hit so weakly when they start semi-weekly.
• The Joses and Jack Wilson have to hit like the average middle infielder.
• Xavier Nady shows some power, learns to hit right-handed pitching or finds a left-handed partner.
• Tony Armas Jr. throws 150 innings with an ERA at 5.00 or below.
• If the Pirates are in the hunt in July, they should pick up a left-handed bat or a pitcher from a team that needs to dump salaries.

In short, I suppose you could say the Pirates need to hit, field and pitch better than they did in 2006 if they want to improve on their 67-95 record. I think that’s a fair assessment.

I’m sure O’Neill would admit that for all of those events to occur, Jim Tracy would need to squeeze the perfect season out of his 25-man roster.

It’s not hard to believe that one out of Jack Wilson, Xavier Nady and the “Joses” will have a strong 2007 campaign—they’re all players with room for improvement, and having all four regress this year would take some mighty awful baseball. Similarly, asking for all four to peak is going too far, in my estimation. By year’s end, a couple of those guys will still be question marks—the replacement players in VORP.

Sending Jason Bay, Freddy Sanchez and Adam LaRoche to the batter’s box for 1,600 plate appearances isn’t an unthinkable task. Freddy’s hard-nosed style of play would make him the biggest injury risk, but I’m not particularly worried. Bay will play 155 games again. LaRoche will, too, as long as he can hit lefties. All three will be penciled into the lineup daily from April ’til September, as definite a 3-4-5 combo as exists in baseball. Knock on a Louisville Slugger.

Chris Duffy’s offense will directly impact the defense. If he (or Luis Matos) can hit enough to stay in the lineup, the Pirates will be better for it. If McLouth or Bautista have to play center regularly, it won’t be a pretty sight. Bay and Nady will be mediocre in the corners; Duffy’s leather is needed in center. My gut says Jack Wilson’s going to field like he did in 2005, and that he and Freddy will be a top-flight double play combination. If Chris goes .275/.335, then the middle will be strong.

As for the backup backstops hitting more: Not having Humberto Cota as our Sunday catcher will do wonders for its batting average. I have (limited) faith in Doumit’s offensive abilities, if not in his skills behind the dish. As long he’s not forced into duty for long stretches of time, he should be an attractive second stringer. He doesn’t need to be Pudge Rodriguez.

As we get into the pitching, more questions arise. O’Neill says that “the bullpen [can’t] miss a beat,” and I agree. Josh Sharpless and Dan Kolb must eat up the innings Sully loses as closer. Shane Youman and/or Juan Perez will need to hold the fort until John Grabow’s elbow heals. Matt Capps and Damaso Marte need to be anchors in the eighth inning. Shawn Chacon can’t be used when games are on the line. As I’ve argued earlier, I think there’s a good possibility those things happen. Dave Littlefield has an innate ability of putting together a strong relief corps.

Let’s say the stars align and 20 Pirates perform at (or beyond) the expectations O’Neill sets for them. I’m still concerned about the last five guys who hold the Pirates’ fate in their hands.

Tony Armas and the Big Four.

Can they do everything Stats Geek asks for, and then some? Yes, most certainly. No one argues with their potential. What we need to win the Central, though, requires more than potential. It’s not “can they” any longer … it’s “will they.”

We need starters 1-5 to make about 140 starts at slightly above league average, according to O’Neill. Four young pitchers must stay healthy, and Tony Armas has to pretend he’s still in Montreal.

That’s where the plan falls apart.

I don’t see the Pirates’ rotation making it through 2007 intact. Paul Maholm and Ian Snell have had strong springs—as have Duke and Armas, depending on the metrics you use for analysis—but Tom Gorzelanny has been downright abysmal. Even if you don’t take Grapefruit League stats into account, with the Pirates’ history of injury-riddled personnel, would you count on those guys to make 30 starts each?

No. A thousand times no.

The way I see it, we need everything O’Neill asked for, and then one more bullet point …

We need Sean Burnett or Bryan Bullington or Yoslan Herrera or (wouldn’t this be a story) Masumi Kuwata to burst onto the scene and make ten or 15 lights-out starts, a la Francisco Liriano. An extra eight or ten wins from an unlikely source might give the Bucs just enough of an edge to eke out a win in baseball’s worst division.

Long story short: We need a miracle. If everything falls into place as scripted, Bodog’s 20-to-1 underdog (substantiated by John Beamer) might pay off in a big way.

Just don’t hold your breath.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, March 20th, 2007 at 9:41 am and is filed under Paul Maholm, Tony Armas, Jr., Tom Gorzelanny, Ian Snell, Players - Pittsburgh Pirates 40-man, Zach Duke, 2007 Pittsburgh Pirates. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.