MVN - Most Valuable Network

Blockbuster In Texas: Analyzing The Mark Teixeira Trade

When Mark Teixeira flipped his cap into the Kansas City crowd after Sunday’s 10-0 loss to the Royals, many wondered if it was a sign that Teixeira knew that he wouldn’t need it again. Or in other words, that he knew that he was good as gone.

36 hours later, it sure looks like that was the case.

Although Monday’s blockbuster trade has yet to be finalized, the deal is basically done: the Rangers have agreed to send former All-Star first baseman Mark Teixeira, along with left-handed reliever Ron Mahay, to the Atlanta Braves for catcher/first baseman Jarrod Saltalamacchia, shortstop Elvis Andrus, right-handed pitcher Naftali Perez and a player to be named later. T.R. Sullivan is reporting that the PTBNL will be left-hander Matt Harrison, so for the purposes of this article, I’ll assume he’s the final piece of the deal.

Texas fans already know the story from cover to cover on Teixeira and Mahay, so I’ll touch on the somewhat unknown, that being the four players the Rangers are getting in return from Atlanta.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, the 22-year-old centerpiece of Atlanta’s trade package, was listed as the 36th best prospect in the game on Baseball America’s Top 100 rankings this spring (as well as the Braves’ best overall prospect, and the best catching prospect in baseball), and 51st on Baseball Prospectus’s Top 100 rankings. “Salty,” a switch-hitting catcher by trade who has received some work at first base this year, hit .284/.333/.411 with 4 HR in his first 141 career at-bats with the Braves in 2007.

While many feel he has tremendous upside, PECOTA projects him to develop 20 HR power with a batting line resembling something close to .260/.350/.460 over the next five years; however, given that he’s just 22, he has plenty of room and time to really break out. Although his defense behind the plate still needs improvement, the sky’s nevertheless the limit with Salty, who will apparently get work at both catcher and first base during the last two months of the season to see where he fits in the Rangers’ long-term plans.

Elvis Andrus, a phenom shortstop prospect out of Venezuela, was ranked #65 on BA’s Top 100 this spring. Andrus was batting just .244/.330/.335 in 385 AB in the Carolina League this season before the trade - however, he’s only 18 years old, and has been playing nearly half his games at high-A Myrtle Beach, one of the worst hitter’s parks in all of professional baseball.

Andrus is a classic “toolsy,” highly projectionable prospect; BA has praise for his above-average defense, but notes he’ll need to improve his strength and plate discipline to continue progressing offensively. PECOTA believes he could be quite valuable by his age 22 season, to the tune of a .287/.342/.439 batting line at the major league level. By the time 2011 rolls around, Michael Young could be just about ready to move from shortstop to a less demanding position, such as third base.

Matt Harrison, a 21-year-old left-hander, was ranked by both BA and BP as the Braves’ best pitching prospect this spring, as well as coming in at #90 on BA’s Top 100 and #79 on BP’s Top 100. The 6′5″, 210 pound Harrison profiles somewhat similiar to another former Rangers pitching prospect in terms of size and stuff - John Danks. Harrison’s sinking fastball, which he complements with a plus changeup and curve, runs in the high-80’s and can touch the mid-90’s.

Harrison has had very good walk and home run rates throughout his minor league career (1.91 BB/9 and 0.66 HR/9 in 547.1 IP), but his middling strikeout rates and inability to miss bats consistently prevent him from profiling much higher than a #3 or #4 starter. Although PECOTA isn’t bullish on Harrison in the least, he does seem to be just the kind of pitcher who could thrive in hitter-friendly Arlington.

One quote to remember: before the season, BA said that Harrison was “the closest thing Atlanta has had to Tom Glavine since Glavine left as a free agent.”

A dip in velocity during Harrison’s most recent start for Double-A Mississippi apparently led the Rangers to check into his health records; he has reportedly been placed on the 15-day disabled list with left shoulder tendinitis, meaning he cannot be traded until he is activated - hence, the PTBNL label. T.R. Sullivan says the Rangers will double-check all of his medical records before officially announcing the deal, but they seem to believe that Harrison will be fine.

The final piece of the deal is 19-year-old Dominican Republic native Neftali Feliz, a flamethrowing right-hander who currently has a 2.05 ERA in 26.1 IP for the Danville Braves in the rookie Appalachian League. Feliz came in at #98 on BP’s Top 100 this spring. Although he has yet to progress to full season ball, Feliz’s fastball has been called the best in the Braves’ minor league system, working consistently in the mid-90’s and occasionally touching triple digits.

Feliz also possesses a slider and changeup, but has yet to harness the command of his pitches, as evidenced by his high walk rates thus far in his professional career. Nevertheless, this is exactly the kind of guy you want to see the Rangers getting at the back end of a blockbuster trade such as this: a young, raw and extremely talented pitching prospect, who could become a dominant starter or reliever someday.

So to recap from both major online baseball publications, Baseball America ranked Salty, Andrus and Harrison in order as the top three prospects in the Braves’ organization this spring, while Baseball Prospectus ranked Salty, Harrison, Feliz and Andrus as the Braves’ first, second, third and fifth best prospects, respectively. This is the kind of high impact, potentially franchise altering return that could eventually turn around the fortunes of the habitually struggling Rangers.

Obviously, I’d like this deal better if the Rangers would deal Gerald Laird and put Salty behind the plate full-time. Barring a major offensive breakout, he’s going to lose quite a bit of value playing regularly at first base, as I outlined several days ago. However, according to club officials, the Rangers have no intentions of dealing Laird before the trade deadline, so we’re probably going to be seeing a platoon situation develop.

In a perfect world, Ron Washington would bat Catalanotto (LF), Salty (C) and Wilkerson (1B) against right-handers, and Wilkerson (LF), Salty (1B) and Laird (C) against left-handers over the final two months of the season. That would be the best way to optimize the Rangers’ offensive production; then again, this is the same guy who put Jerry Hairston Jr. and his “gritty” .247 OBP in the leadoff spot this past weekend against the Royals, so I’m not holding my breath.

Realistically, this is likely the best possible return Jon Daniels was able to get for Teixeira; the L.A. Daily News reported early Monday that the Dodgers never offered James Loney or Andre Ethier to the Rangers, and the Diamondbacks were apparently reluctant to step up their offer beyond Conor Jackson and Carlos Gonzalez.

The Teixeira deal was first reported by Ken Rosenthal at approximately 10:00 AM CST on Monday, and that would seem to correspond with the rumor late last night that Braves GM John Schuerholz would not let this thing go too far past noon EST on Monday.

With the Angels not budging from their Kotchman/Saunders offer, the Dodgers and Diamondbacks refusing to step up, and a possible Schuerholz-imposed deadline staring him in the face, Daniels probably decided it was time to pull the trigger. Wise decision, and I don’t think you can argue that Daniels played this thing out as far as he possibly could.

Reactions from around the baseball world seem to be quite positive in favor of the Rangers - although realistically, this is a solid trade for both clubs. The Braves desperately needed an upgrade over Julio Franco’s fossilized remains at first base, while the Rangers needed a big-time return that could fortify the farm system, as well as the big league club, for 2008 and beyond.

Congrats to Thad Levine, Don Welke, Ron Hopkins, AJ Preller and everybody else in the scouting and personnel departments for a job well done. And thumbs up, JD. You’re two-for-two so far this week.

And farewell, Tex.

Finally, Evan Grant is reporting tonight that the Rangers are likely done in the trade market before Tuesday’s 3:00 PM CST deadline, even though they hold perhaps the most powerful trade piece still on the market in Eric Gagne. The Yankees, Red Sox, Mets and Brewers are all reportedly in on Gagne.

No word on Sammy Sosa, Jamey Wright, Brad Wilkerson, Joaquin Benoit or any of the other Rangers who have had trade rumors attached to their names in recent days.

Somehow, I have a feeling Jon Daniels has one or two more tricks up his sleeve that he’s going to pull before this is all said and done.

14 hours until the trade deadline.

This entry was posted on Monday, July 30th, 2007 at 10:53 pm and is filed under The Season. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.