Rangers Notebook: The Clock Keeps Ticking
Is Arizona outfielder Carlos Gonzalez the latest young trade commodity to hit the market? - mwlguide/Flickr.com
With just under 24 hours left on the clock until the end of the 15-day filing period for eligible players to declare for free agency with the league office, all but one of the Texas Rangers’ four impending free agents have obtained their walking papers.
The lone man standing? Jamey Wright. Don’t be too surprised if general manager Jon Daniels and Wright’s agent, Casey Close, manage to reach an agreement on a new 2008 contract for Wright within the coming hours.
Speaking of Daniels, MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan discussed some more potential trade avenues for JD and friends in his Friday piece, and how the exorbitantly high prices on guys like Torii Hunter and Aaron Rowand may convince the club to aggressively pursue a trade for their next center fielder, and subsequently deter them from the expensive path of free agency.
One name that did catch my eye as I perused Sullivan’s fine work was that of 22-year-old outfield prospect Carlos Gonzalez, who finished up the 2007 season with Triple-A Tucson of the Arizona Diamondbacks organization.
If the name rings a bell, that may be due to the fact that he was discussed as part of a potential trade package for first baseman Mark Teixeira back on July 30th, just hours before the eventual blockbuster deal with the Atlanta Braves was consummated.
However, the Diamondbacks waited too long to jump into the Teixeira sweepstakes, and time ran out on D’Backs GM Josh Byrnes in his quest to complete a deal before the deadline. Whether or not that was to Arizona’s benefit remains to be seen, but you certainly won’t find the Rangers complaining about the outcome of the situation. In any event, here’s what I wrote on the night of July 30th on Gonzalez:
Carlos Gonzalez is a toolsy corner outfield prospect, who ranked 18th on Baseball America’s Top 100 rankings this spring and 31st on Baseball’s Prospectus’s Top 100. He’s been less than great this year at Double-A Mobile, batting .271/.312/.469 with 15 HR in 377 AB, but the fact that he’s just 21 years old certainly plays a big factor here. John Sickels ranked him as the 3rd best prospect in the Diamondbacks organization last December, rating him a B+ and noting that “weak plate discipline prevents A- grade.”
PECOTA isn’t too crazy about Gonzalez, projecting him as a 25 HR type power hitter but with less than optimal walk rates, and with EqAs in the .265-.270 range over the next five seasons. His questionable plate discipline is probably the biggest knock against him at this point.
Gonzalez ended up raising his batting line at Double-A Mobile to .286/.330/.476 in 458 AB, and received a late season promotion to Tucson, where he hit .310/.396/.500 in 42 AB. He remains a very intriguing prospect, but as with so many young players who are being designated by the media as “available,” I have to wonder just how “available” he is - or for that matter, what the Rangers would have to place on the bargaining table to even strike up a conversation with Arizona.
Sullivan also mentions that Texas is not especially interested in acquiring an injury-prone center fielder, which would seem to rule Tampa Bay’s Rocco Baldelli out of the equation. Although the rest of the article is mostly a hodge-podge of various trade and free agent possibilities, I did find this snippet rather interesting:
Marlon Byrd and David Murphy are the obvious benchmarks. If the Rangers can’t do better, then they will look at upgrading the corner outfield and see what happens.
That makes for a nice segway into Gil LeBreton’s Sunday editorial in the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, which touches on the subject of Texas’s burgeoning interest toward the Japanese market. The Rangers have reportedly expressed interest in outfielder Kosuke Fukudome, who can become a unrestricted free agent on Monday if he rejects a four year, $15 million offer from the Chunichi Dragons, and right-handed starter Hiroki Kuroda, who became a free agent last week.
The idea of bringing Kuroda aboard scares me for two big reasons: first, he’ll be 33 years old on Opening Day ‘08, and second, he’s currently being viewed as a guy that will top out as a “middle of the rotation” starter, at best. We all know how well that worked out for the last guy who carried that label with him across the Pacific. And as for Fukudome - well, I’ll get back to you on that one soon.
Free agent reliever J.C. Romero re-signed with the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday, agreeing to terms on a three year, $12 million contract with a fourth year club option worth $4.75 million. This deal sets a nice precedent for ex-Ranger Ron Mahay, who has been mentioned as perhaps the premier left-handed reliever on the market this winter. Frightening, isn’t it?
According to Jason Paré of Baseball Prospectus, Frank Catalanotto was the unluckiest player in all of baseball in 2007 in terms of pure batting average. Paré’s calculations reveal that after accounting for various sabermetric contingencies, Catalanotto should have hit .314 as opposed to his actual batting average of .260. Go figure.
And finally, Matt Harrison tossed four more innings of shutout baseball last Thursday against the Peoria Javelinas of the Arizona Fall League, bringing his overall AFL record to 5-0 with a 1.23 ERA in 22 IP. Harrison has now recorded 18 consecutive scoreless innings of work, a streak during which, according to Scott Lucas, he has held opposing batters to a line of .056/.150/.056.
Unbelievable. There’s not much more to say.
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11 Responses to “Rangers Notebook: The Clock Keeps Ticking”
November 12th, 2007 at 7:48 am
I’m confused - I thought the Rangers needed an OF *now*, which is why they wanted to sign a “star” like Hunter or Rowland. I fail to see how Carlos Gonzalez helps us in 2008. If our scouts have watched this kid and think that he’s a legit prospect, and we may have a shot in stealing him away from Arizona, then go for it, I guess. But if he’s just going to cost us one of our good prospects, and he’ll just be in the minors for another couple of seasons, why bother? We already have 2 good OF prospects in the minors whom we are counting on a couple of years down the road - Borbon and Beltre.
It’s one thing to try and save money - or try to spend money wisely when you do spend it - but *someone* has to play OF next season, and unless all three of these guys (Byrd, Cruz and Murphy) have the mother of all breakout seasons next year, we’re going to have a long summer with this as our outfield in the hitting-conscious American League.
November 12th, 2007 at 12:48 pm
Good points JDolla - I suppose the club is simply trying to evaluate all possible options, or in other words, leave no stone unturned. Just a guess, but considering that Gonzalez is pretty highly regarded as a prospect (though more for his “potential” and “raw talent” than his actual results so far), he might cost Texas somebody like Volquez.
FWIW, I don’t think Gonzalez will be dealt anyway, so this may all be moot. As far as maximizing cost/production for solely the 2008 season, the Rangers might be best off by signing Fukudome and executing a trade for somebody like, say, David DeJesus - if he’s even available, that is
Such an arrangement would allow Texas to stick DeJesus in CF, Fukudome in RF and a combination of Byrd/Murphy in LF, which would give the club a pretty solid defensive outfield - and depending on how Fukudome’s offense pans out, perhaps a respectable offensive outfield as well. Catalanotto would move to first base, with Botts filling the DH role.
This is just one idea, of course, and perhaps a major longshot at that. But it’s one that I would still far prefer to the idea of throwing millions upon millions of dollars at Torii Hunter.
November 12th, 2007 at 3:18 pm
With the possible solution to our CF issue already on the 40, although still at least 2 seasons away, finding a young COF mainstay is an intriguing idea in my opinion.
Gonzalez is blocked in Arizona unless they decide to move Young or Upton which I find very unlikely. Gonzalez still needs refinement at the plate but is a very gifted player who, unlike most OF options this off-season, would give the Rangers a player on the upswing of his career while remaining inexpensive for a very long time.
The problem is that Arizona isn’t looking to give him away for free. Unfortunately I think it would take a player like Hurley to start the talks and I doubt JD moves near ready pitching for near ready hitting. I’m on the fence if this were the case. I’m not the biggest Hurley fan for a number of reasons specifically his flyball tendencies but I’m hesitant because of the perceived value of both players right now. Assuming Gonzalez can produce the suggested 25+ homers and an EqA of .270 for the next 5 years, would you feel comfortable dealing a middle of the rotation starter for that production? Probably not. The real question is what if that production turns out to be 30+ homers and a much higher EqA against a pitcher who could really struggle to find success pitching his home games in Texas? Interesting debate.
November 12th, 2007 at 7:04 pm
With all due respect, Jason, I don’t think this is an “interesting debate.” There should be no debate about trading Hurley for anyone other than a top-flight mlb-ready pitcher or prospect. Considering all the guys we could have had for Hurley in trades in the last year, for us to give him to Arizona for a questionable outfielder would be even worse than the Chris Young deal. If that happens, I will quit being a Rangers fan.
No - I think JD is serious when he means we are building for the future - you don’t get to that future by trading away one of your prime building blocks. If the Rangers have learned anything over the past 15 years surely it’s that.
November 12th, 2007 at 8:13 pm
I think Hurley is overvalued by most Rangers fans but of course that is just my opinion. Also, how many teams are going to trade the Rangers a top flight major league ready pitcher for a minor league pitcher with a projected ceiling of a middle of the rotation starter? Those deals don’t happen.
My point was that if JD has doubts about Hurley, taking a closer look at a player like Gonzalez is entirely possible. Now as you pointed out, teams that are serious about rebuilding don’t trade away pieces of their future just to acquire more question marks. I agree with this. The problem is I’m not 100% sold on the Rangers commitment to rebuild from within and I’m not sold on Hurley being the rotation savior he is thought to be.
I understand the attachment to our prospects and I respect your opinions about Hurley, but I think we would be limiting ourselves if we failed to at least explore other opportunities.
November 12th, 2007 at 8:43 pm
Many project Hurley to be a top-of-the-rotation guy. He’s probably not going to be a Johan Santana, but he projects higher by most accounts than anything we have now. In other words, Hurley might not be an ace, but if he’s a 15 game winner who can post a 4.00 era - that’s the kind of player we desperately need. Plus he’ll be young and cheap.
Considering how pitching-starved our organization is, it would be ludicrous to trade a chip like Hurley for an outfielder. We don’t need an outfielder - we need about 4 starters.
I don’t think that we’ll be able to trade Hurley for a 2nd starter - but that’s just my point. We shouldn’t trade him unless we can get something like that for him. Like I said above, what the Rangers need is pitching depth. We have to at least give Hurley a shot and see what he can do.
Furthermore, regarding your comment about not being sold on the Rangers commitment to “rebuilt from within” - I’m confused. Are you saying that you think they should stick with this plan - but you fear they won’t? If that’s the case, then arguing for a trade of the over-hyped Hurley, as you say, would be a strange argument.
I also respect your right to your opinion of Hurley, and of course you might be right. But after watching player after player get traded away from here only to do well elsewhere (Young, Kolb, Davis) - JD owes it to the fans to stick this one out and let us see what Hurley can do.
November 12th, 2007 at 10:48 pm
Sorry for the confusion. I’m not trying to argue for a trade of Hurley. My original point was that nobody in our system should be considered untouchable. JD has been willing to trade our #1 propect for a player he thought had a higher ceiling before so I wouldn’t rule out him dipping back into the farm again if the situation presents itself. I also not trying to advocate a straight up trade of Hurley for Gonzalez. I apologize again if I wasn’t very clear.
November 13th, 2007 at 5:56 am
Ahh… Okay, that makes sense. Thanks for clearing that up.
November 13th, 2007 at 8:46 am
I would like to respectfully disagree with one thing, though. To me, at least at this point (this year and perhaps next) the following players are definitely “untouchable”:
Kiker, Hurley, Beavan, Harrison, Davis, Duran, Beltre and Borbon.
That’s my opinion at least.
November 13th, 2007 at 10:14 am
Oh - and add Andrus to that list.
November 13th, 2007 at 8:40 pm
Great discussion, fellas.
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