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Rangers Notebook: Gagne Out, Ethier In?

Scratch another name off of the Texas Rangers’ rapidly shrinking list of free agent targets.

According to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, the Rangers have discontinued their pursuit of free agent right-hander Eric Gagne, due to what Grant describes as an unwillingness on the part of the organization to tender a multi-year contract offer to Gagne and his agent, Scott Boras.

Although this reason strikes me as the most plausible explanation for the Rangers’ sudden change of heart, Grant further hypothesizes that perhaps the financial demands from Gagne’s camp on a one-year deal grew beyond the team’s “comfort zone.”

That bothers me, on multiple levels.

It’s no secret that Gagne, who will be 32 on January 7th, struggled mightily as a member of the Boston Red Sox during the final months of the 2007 season; granted, those struggles were most likely attributable to his sudden change in roles. But putting all of that aside for a moment, the fact remains that Gagne delivered 33.1 innings of quality relief out of the Texas bullpen last year, during which the 2003 NL Cy Young winner recorded a filthy 2.16 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 29 strikeouts.

Additionally, Gagne, despite his relatively low IP totals with the Rangers due to a pair of early season stints on the disabled list, compiled a 14.4 VORP - good for 4th on the Rangers staff, behind Jamey Wright (17.1 VORP in 77 IP), C.J. Wilson (21 VORP in 68.1 IP), and Joaquin Benoit (27.2 VORP in 82 IP). Regardless of your personal thoughts concerning the various merits and faults of Gagne, there’s no denying that he was one of the Rangers’ most valuable pitchers in 2007.

And despite there being an apparent mutual interest between both Gagne and the Rangers during the winter meetings, it now appears that ship has sailed, leaving Texas to pursue less savory bullpen options - such as free agent right-hander LaTroy Hawkins, who will not only be 35 on December 21st, but is also suffering from a rather disturbing falloff in his K/9 ratio, and will likely not benefit too greatly from the transition back to the American League.

Now, I can certainly sympathize with the front office’s wishes to avoid committing to multiple years with Gagne, considering that he remains a pretty serious injury risk going forward. In fact, such a proposition would have toed the line between foolhardy and dangerous, since the guaranteed value of the contract would have probably exceeded $10 million annually.

But if, on the other hand, the issue was that Gagne wanted a one-year deal, but the price tag exceeded what the Rangers were willing to spend - well, that’s another matter altogether. I fully comprehend that Jon Daniels and company are attempting to see the current rebuilding plan all the way through; trust me, I want this club to succeed as much as every other die-hard Rangers fan out there.

However, signing Gagne to a one-year deal, even with a club option year attached, does nothing to detract from that rebuilding focus. Even though it’s fairly common knowledge that 2008 is not the targeted liftoff point for Texas, the organization still owes a certain obligation to their fanbase to put a somewhat competitive product on the field.

And right now, I’m beginning to have serious doubts as to whether or not the Rangers will even be able to accomplish that goal in 2008; indeed, they may be lucky to win 70 games. Depending on your choice of metric, Gagne, conservatively speaking, likely would have added somewhere in the range of 3-4 wins to next year’s club - not exactly earth-shattering, but nothing to sneeze at either.

Keep in mind that this entire argument operates off of the assumption that Gagne and Boras were seeking additional money in the negotiating process, rather than additional guaranteed years. Perhaps Evan Grant’s original hypothesis will prove to be correct, and this whole rant will be rendered completely moot.

But in any event, I wish owner Tom Hicks the best of luck in luring those coveted season ticket holders out to Rangers Ballpark in Arlington next year.

I have a feeling he’s going to need it.

Meanwhile, MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan touched on the Rangers’ ongoing search for outfield help in his Friday evening piece, noting that the club is not interested in free agent center fielder Corey Patterson beyond a one-year commitment. I would express some frustration at the Rangers for their stance here as well, if not for the fact that Patterson’s mediocre offensive upside makes him an unattractive long-term option anyway.

Curiously, Sullivan also says that Texas is “openly interested” in Dodgers outfielder Andre Ethier, who has reportedly shot to the top of the Rangers’ wish list. The signing of center fielder Andruw Jones to a two year, $36.2 million deal on Thursday night has complicated the outfield situation in Los Angeles, making it probable that one out of the trio of Ethier, Juan Pierre and Matt Kemp will be dealt this winter.

Ethier, 25, hit .284/.350/.452 with 13 HR in 447 AB for the Dodgers in 2007, good for a .269 EqA; in 2006, the lefty outfielder slugged 11 HR in 396 AB, while compiling a more impressive .308/.365/.477 line at the plate.

Although capable of playing either corner outfield spot, Ethier made 102 appearances in right field for the Dodgers during the 2007 season, compared to just 60 in left field. Furthermore, Ethier is considered as a quality defensive outfielder: among all players who recorded at least 700 innings in right field in 2007, Andre’s RZR (or Revised Zone Rating) came in at .918 - ironically, tied with Houston’s Luke Scott for the highest mark in the game.

On top of that, John Dewan’s “The Fielding Bible” rankings peg Ethier at +16 in right field, good for third best in baseball during 2007. Couple Ethier’s league average offensive production with his well above average defensive capabilities in right field, and you have the makings of a very solid young ballplayer - and coincidentally, one who would be under club control for another four years. Count me in, if the price is right.

Sullivan does conclude by mentioning that the Rangers continue to keep tabs on free agent Japanese outfielder Kosuke Fukudome, who has yet to formally announce his intentions to play in America next year. That being said, FOXSports.com’s Ken Rosenthal reported on Friday afternoon that Fukudome’s decision to cross the Pacific was imminent, so it doesn’t sound as though there’s any chance of him staying in Japan at this point.

The Cubs and Padres continue to be named as the front-runners for his services, with several other clubs (including Texas) on the periphery. Baseball Prospectus’s Joe Sheehan did weigh in on the situation during his Friday afternoon chat session - and his answers may surprise you:

Richard (San Diego): How much do you think Fukudome will ultimately sign for?

Joe Sheehan: 4/52.

[…]

Travis (San Diego): Fukudome - Pads, Cubs, or Other?

Joe Sheehan: Other. I think this one is going to come out of the blue.

Sheehan’s last response, in particular, is very intriguing. Does he know something that we don’t? We’ll find out soon enough.

The Baseball Writers Association of America opened its doors to web-based baseball writers for the first time on Wednesday, and subsequently voted in 16 of the 18 writers submitted for approval, including the likes of ESPN’s Peter Gammons, Tim Kurkjian, and Buster Olney, SI’s Jon Heyman and Tom Verducci, and the aforementioned Ken Rosenthal.

Who failed to make the cut? ESPN’s Rob Neyer and Keith Law, the only two national baseball writers that I can confirm have read my work here at Baseball Time in Arlington. The BTiA Jinx, perhaps? I doubt it could hold a candle to the infamous “BaD Radio Curse,” but it’s worth pondering.

In any event, Rob Neyer has plenty of thoughts about the entire debacle over at Baseball Think Factory; meanwhile, a nasty public feud between Law and several prominent BBWAA members appears to be on the verge of breaking out, making this a situation definitely worth keeping an eye on.

And finally, if you’ve been waiting for a news story that combines both the Texas Rangers and thuggish NFL players, this is probably a big day for you:

Suspended NFL player Adam “Pacman” Jones will be sentenced to one-year probation after pleading no contest Thursday to a reduced charge of conspiracy to commit disorderly conduct in a Las Vegas strip-club melee during the NBA All-Star weekend in February.

Jones, 24, said little during the arraignment. He wore a blue Texas Rangers baseball cap into the courtroom, taking it off and handing it to a lawyer as he answered questions from the judge.

Yep, that’s the Rangers in a nutshell: making news for all the wrong reasons.

This entry was posted on Saturday, December 8th, 2007 at 1:08 am and is filed under The Off-Season. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.