MVN - Most Valuable Network

Rangers Notebook: A Bullpen Primer

As a die-hard Green Bay Packers fan living in north Texas, I can’t say that I particularly sympathize with the Dallas Cowboys, or their undoubtedly still shell-shocked supporters, after their stunning playoff loss to the New York Giants at Texas Stadium on Sunday night.

But being that I’m also a rabid Texas Rangers fan - one who has seen his fair share of heartbreaking finishes from his team on the baseball diamond - I can most certainly relate to the painfully fresh plight of the Cowboys.

For as much fun as the Rangers’ 2004 “miracle season” was, the cold and harsh reality of the matter is that they still failed to reach the post-season.

And they haven’t sniffed it since.

Granted, it’s nothing short of a miracle in itself that Texas managed to climb to within two games of the AL West divisional lead with ten games to play that year - but much like the ‘07 Cowboys, the ‘04 Rangers also suffered from a disastrous collapse down the stretch (losing five of six after the legendary “Dellucci Double” on September 23rd) that served to crush their respective championship dreams.

It can be argued, perhaps even rather convincingly, that one is completely unlike the other. After all, who honestly expected at the onset of the 2004 season that the Rangers would even remotely compete for a playoff spot? Conversely, the most pressing question concerning the Cowboys going into last fall was not whether or not they’d be a good team, but just how good.

At second glance, however, both teams do share one key similarity: when it mattered the most, both the ‘04 Rangers and ‘07 Cowboys folded like a lawn chair. That’s not intended as a condemnation of that memorable Rangers squad in the slightest; that entire season, with its many thrilling twists and turns, transformed me into the die-hard baseball fan that I am today.

But in the end, the ultimate measuring stick by which any team’s success in a given season has to be evaluated is their success, or lack thereof, in reaching and excelling in the post-season. And using that logic, one word can both accurately and succinctly sum up the recent fortunes of the Cowboys and Rangers, two professional sports franchises that have both failed to notch a playoff win in more than a decade.

Disappointment.

Returning to present day, it’s definitely beginning to appear as though the Rangers’ 2008 squad is finally falling into place. Free agent right-hander Jason Jennings underwent his team physical in Arlington on Monday, and apparently passed with flying colors, as the 29-year-old sinkerballer is reportedly set to be added to the roster later this week.

Meanwhile, Chris Shelton’s departure from the 40-man roster has given rise to an entirely new debate surrounding the club’s utility infielder job. Team officials have openly acknowledged that minor league infield prospect German Duran, who has already been tendered a invitation to big league spring training, will be granted an opportunity to make the Opening Day roster as the Rangers’ utility man:

“He’s coming to camp to be evaluated for a big league spot,” Rangers general manager Jon Daniels said. “We’re not labeling him as a utility player, but some guys do break in the big leagues that way.”

Duran, 23, batted a stellar .300/.352/.525 with 22 HR and 11 SB in 480 AB for Double-A Frisco in 2007. Most notable, however, was his tremendous offensive production against southpaws: in 135 AB against left-handers, Duran hit a whopping .341/.399/.637 with 10 HR.

It is that latter statistical line which undoubtedly has the Rangers intrigued in opening up their 2008 campaign with Duran on the active roster. Texas could certainly use a decent right-handed bat off the bench, and with first baseman Ben Broussard still likely in need of some type of platoon partner (his lifetime .227/.290/.399 batting line in 348 AB vs. LHP is a testament to that fact), Duran would seem to be a perfect candidate to snag some playing time at first base.

The problems with this idea, of course, are twofold: not only has Duran yet to play a single game professionally above Double-A, but he has also yet to play a single game professionally at first base. He has also played just one game at third base, with the remainder of his time in the field being split 75/25 between second base and shortstop. And his less than impressive 5′10″ stature would make him one of the shortest (if not the shortest) first basemen in baseball.

Now, does this mean that Duran can’t eventually develop into a useful, super-sub type player that can regularly chew up at-bats at every infield position with competent defense? Certainly not. But at the same time, asking Duran to semi-regularly platoon at a position which he has virtually zero experience playing at strikes me as a somewhat risky proposition, at best.

Another area of this team which remains open to debate is the bullpen, though the main core is admittedly beginning to shape into form. C.J. Wilson, Joaquin Benoit, Kazuo Fukumori and Eddie Guardado have locked in four of the seven available relief spots - but the other three jobs remain up in the air, to a large extent, and will almost certainly be filled based on spring training performance.

So, who else will break camp as part of the Rangers’ seven-piece bullpen unit? It’s still hard to say definitively, but here are some semi-educated guesses:

• RHP Frankie Francisco (80%) - Has the inside track on one of the three remaining spots, according to T.R. Sullivan, but “is not a lock.” Struggled with an infuriating lack of control (38 BB in 59.1 IP in 2007) in the wake of April 2005 Tommy John surgery, but his velocity returned to the mid-to-high 90’s by late September. Command is usually the last thing to return after elbow surgery, so there’s plenty of reason to believe that Frankie is ready to break out.
• LHP John Rheinecker (60%) - Held left-handed batters to a puny .229/.289/.371 batting line in 2007, though he fared much worse against right-handers (.328/.426/.526). Carrying Rheinecker would require rolling with a bullpen consisting of three lefties out of spring training, something which I’m not sure the organization is thrilled about doing - but he’s out of options, and would almost certainly be snapped up off waivers by a team in need of a LOOGY if Texas attempted to outright him to the minor leagues. As a result, there’s a better than decent chance he’ll stick around.
• RHP Jamey Wright (40%) - Ah yes, “The Electrician.” Dominant relief work in 2007 (2.05 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 19 K, and just one HR allowed in 30.2 IP) and a possible need for an additional “veteran presence” in the bullpen alongside Guardado could result in Wright being penciled in as a situational middle reliever and regular long reliever.
• RHP Kameron Loe (30%) - Despite now being a four-year Major League veteran, the Rangers still haven’t decided whether or not “The Snake” is a starter or reliever; granted, the correct answer is almost certainly the latter at this point. Loe’s probably headed for Triple-A Oklahoma out of spring training, but he’ll almost certainly be at the top of the Rangers’ emergency call-up list due to his versatility - the one positive side effect to be derived from his lack of a definitive role.
• RHP Wes Littleton (25%) - Needs to find a way to strike out more batters (a K/9 ratio of 4.39 simply won’t cut it in the big leagues), as his deceptive sidearm delivery will only take him so far. Still, Littleton’s a nice pitcher to have lying around for depth purposes - and he still has one option remaining.
• RHP Scott Feldman (15%) - Texas will almost certainly want Feldman to work on his retooled three-quarters delivery in the minor leagues at the onset of the 2008 season. He possesses the stuff to become a serviceable big league reliever, but his command has a long way to go.
• RHP Jason Davis (10%) - Another pitcher with above-average stuff who has underachieved for much of his career. Davis may be just 27, but he needs to finally put it together. He’ll make $650,000 guaranteed if he makes the team out of spring training, but he can also ask for his unconditional release if he’s not added to the 25-man roster by March 29th; either way, he’ll need a big spring to make the team.
• RHP Robinson Tejeda (10%) - How quickly things can change in a year. Now out of options, Tejeda’s only chance of breaking camp as part of the Rangers’ Opening Day roster is probably to win a job out of the bullpen - and his still mediocre to poor command makes even that possibility remote, at best. Realistically, he’ll be designated for assignment sometime before Opening Day at the latest, and perhaps whenever Jennings is added to the 40-man roster at soonest.
• RHP Josh Rupe (10%) - Numerous elbow problems have prevented this once promising sinkerballer from breaking through as a starting pitcher, and have forced the Rangers to permanently relegate him to the bullpen. Rupe simply has to prove that he can stay healthy, once and for all - or his baseball days could well be numbered.
• LHP A.J. Murray (5%) - Murray made 12 appearances out of the Rangers bullpen in 2007, but the organization wants to groom him as a starter. He’ll almost certainly head to Triple-A Oklahoma to begin the 2008 season, but injuries to Wilson, Rheinecker or Guardado could force him back into temporary bullpen duties at the big league level.
• RHP Luis Mendoza (5%) - Perhaps the lead candidate to win a rotation spot out of spring training if one of the tentative starting five (Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Brandon McCarthy, Jason Jennings and Kason Gabbard) badly falters or suffers a serious injury. The Rangers appear to be much more interested in what Mendoza can do as a starter than as a reliever, in any event.
• RHP Elizardo Ramirez (2%) - Pinpoint control can only take you so far when you’re not good at preventing hits or striking out opposing batters.
• RHP Franklyn German (1%) - The 27-year-old Dominican Republic native has surrendered 106 walks in 137 Major League innings to date, and allowed 46 walks in 59.1 IP with the Redhawks in 2007. Yikes.

Several other local columnists have chimed in with preliminary positional breakdowns; T.R. Sullivan has penned a blog entry at “Postcards from Elysian Fields” which runs down the pitchers currently slated for a trip to Surprise next month, and has also issued his latest piece into MLB.com’s “Around the Horn” series, in which Sullivan takes an in-depth look at the Rangers’ organizational depth at the middle infield positions.

Along these same lines, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram has a piece out examining the Rangers’ stability (or lack thereof) at each position, and includes a curious throwaway line suggesting that first baseman Nate Gold might be given a look as Broussard’s platoon partner in spring training.

In addition, Baseball Prospectus’s Christina Kahrl has also acknowledged the possibility of Nate Gold finally breaking through into the big leagues this coming season:

It’s possible that the Rangers might lose Shelton on a waiver claim, but that would hardly be debilitating. They’re not going to win the division, and having picked up Ben Broussard as well, it isn’t like picking one or the other offers all that much upside. Shelton is cheap, an uncertain proposition, and disposable, even more so with Nate Gold likely to start pushing for playing time at first base at some point early on during the 2008 season. The problem there is that the Rangers’ 40-man roster is already fully stocked, and Gold’s not yet on it. That should make for some interesting decision-making, certainly.

There’s just one teensy, weensy little problem with this idea: despite hitting from the right side of the plate exclusively, Gold batted just .250/.316/.426 in 136 AB against southpaws with Triple-A Oklahoma in 2007.

This could be nothing more than an odd statistical anomaly, a possibility which is difficult to prove or disprove given that Minor League Splits currently has data available for only the most recent season. Nonetheless, this serves as a fairly damning piece of evidence against Gold’s case for becoming Broussard’s regular platoon partner.

T.R. Sullivan also weighs in on the Gold issue in his latest MLB.com mailbag, with his stance more or less being that the Rangers’ apparent reservations towards Gold probably exist for a good reason. Perhaps more significantly, T.R. notes that while the Rangers “could use” Dodgers infielder Nomar Garciaparra, they “aren’t going to get him away.”

And in the wake of Sullivan’s recent Nomar lovefest, that’s very encouraging news.

Of course, what T.R. Sullivan mailbag would be complete without an absurd and totally inconceivable fan-engineered trade proposal?

Do you think it would be a good trade for the Rangers if they gave up Michael Young, Josh Hamilton and possibly C.J, Wilson to the Red Sox, in return getting Kevin Youkilis, either Jon Lester or Clay Buchholz, and another prospect?
– Chris L., Dallas

I’d rather have Young than Youkilis and don’t want to give up both a potential cleanup hitter and closer for a highly regarded but unproven starter and an unknown prospect.

Sigh.

Getting back to reality momentarily, Baseball Prospectus’s Joe Sheehan has pegged second baseman Ian Kinsler, who is coming off an impressive 20-20 sophomore campaign, as a potential breakout candidate in 2008:

Starting with McLouth, we get into players who aren’t quite as strong candidates. Kinsler made small improvements across the board in ’07, hitting more fly balls, walking a bit more, stealing more bases at a better rate and playing better defense. Given a full season—Kinsler has missed 74 games in two seasons—he could put up Dan Uggla’s numbers, with much better defense and a higher OBP.

The Rangers reportedly began discussing a potential five-year contract extension for Kinsler with his representatives, Jay Franklin and Jeff Frye, in early November. But negotiations between Ian’s camp and the organization reached a stalemate soon thereafter, with the two sides being alleged to be far apart financially, and there have been no new public developments on this front since mid-November.

I won’t claim to have the faintest clue of how much “fiscal security” Ian is purportedly seeking, or how much the Rangers chose to place on the table before negotiations collapsed. However, I will say this: sooner or later, Tom Hicks may come to regret his unwillingness to pony up the necessary cash to lock up Kinsler through the 2012 season.

And if Ian does indeed break out in 2008, perhaps much sooner than later.

Since the last time I chimed in with an full length piece, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News has named Max Ramirez, Neftali Feliz, Julio Borbon, Matt Harrison, German Duran, Fabio Castillo, and Luis Mendoza as the 11th through the 17th best prospects in the Rangers organization.

Both Harrison and Duran seem slightly underrated by Grant relative to some of the other top prospect lists floating around out there, but these things are so tremendously subjective anyway that it’s hard to get too riled up.

Mike Hindman of “Rangers Farm Report” has published his evaluation of the 6th through the 10th best outfield prospects in the organization, which seems to speak more about the organization’s dearth of quality at that position than anything else. Every player listed by Hindman has some type of major red flag surrounding their respective skill set, from poor strike zone recognition to abhorrent walk rates to below-average defense.

In the case of the Rangers’ first round selection of the 2005 MLB Draft, John Mayberry, it’s a little of all the above. And that’s extremely disturbing.

But if you’re desperately hoping for a high note to conclude on, here you go: just 30 days remain until Texas pitchers and catchers report to spring training in Surprise, Arizona.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, January 16th, 2008 at 3:58 pm and is filed under The Off-Season. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.