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Rangers Clean Up In ESPN, BP Top 100 MLB Prospect Rankings

After a seemingly endless winter in hibernation, the onset of the month of February is nigh upon the Texas Rangers.

With two weeks left remaining until the official commencement of spring training across the baseball landscape, many writers, both locally and nationally, have turned their attention to the infusion of electrifying talent coming down through the sport’s minor league pipeline.

In recent weeks, we’ve received both specialized and generalized top prospect rankings concerning the Rangers’ rejuvenated young farm system from the likes of Jamey Newberg, Evan Grant, Mike Hindman, Scott Lucas - and even a somewhat abbreviated list from myself, which I look to expound upon further very, very soon.

And now today, with the calendar page on the brink of being turned once again, we now have at our disposal the clearest snapshot yet of how the top prospects within the Rangers organization rank on a national scale, compared to their similarly gifted peers across baseball.

Both Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus and Keith Law of ESPN.com have released their widely anticipated top 100 prospect rankings today, prompting much excitement and opportunity for debate among stat geeks, old schoolers and everybody else in between.

The methodologies utilized by Goldstein and Law in evaluating baseball’s brightest young prospects differ dramatically, which helps to explain the rather large disparities between their respective rankings on some of the players listed below. Goldstein, for instance, tends to value toolsy, high ceiling players oozing with raw potential more highly than Law, who includes factors such as “expected time to reach and contribute in the majors” as part of his evaluation process.

Of course, this doesn’t make one set of prospect rankings more or less accurate than the other; at this stage, it’s impossible to differentiate between the two. But despite their many disagreements, both Goldstein’s and Law’s rankings do concur on one thing: the Rangers’ farm system is good. Really, really good.

Seven Rangers prospects registered on the BP Top 100 (tied with Boston and Oakland for the most in baseball), with six gaining admission to ESPN’s Top 100 (second behind only Tampa Bay, who had a whopping nine players ranked). It’s a testament to the superb job performed by general manager Jon Daniels and his vast supporting army of domestic and international talent evaluators, without whom this unprecedented surge in young talent would have been impossible.

And now, without further ado, enjoy this easy to read compilation of in-depth scouting info from Goldstein - which was lifted from his fantastic December 23rd, 2007 “Future Shock” segment - and Law, along with their respective rankings on each player:

* * * * *

SS Elvis Andrus | DoB: 8/26/88 | 6′ 0″, 185 lb.
Acquired via: Trade on 7/31/07 for 1B Mark Teixeira, LHP Ron Mahay
BP: #58 (Unranked in 2007) | ESPN: #31

Defensively Andrus is a special prospect, with great instinct, tremendous range, very quick hands, and a strong, accurate arm. Offensively he has a feel for contact and uses the whole field, while also showing an excellent approach for such a young player. While his offensive numbers have been far from impressive, he’s also been very young for his level, often facing pitchers three to four years older. He’s a plus-plus runner who should steal 30-40 bases annually.

[…]

Andrus’ offensive ceiling is debatable. He’ll never hit for much power, and some wonder if he’ll do enough other things to be worthy of a spot at the top of a lineup. Defensively, he’s still prone to errors when his flashiness overtakes his fundamentals.

- Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus

Atlanta pushed Andrus very aggressively while he was in its system, moving him to high Class A ball at an age when most prospects are still in short-season ball. His baseball skills are slowly catching up to his tremendous athletic ability, and if Texas manages him carefully, the Rangers have a potential star on their hands.

Andrus has a very easy, almost effortless swing, and the ball flies off his bat. He has an advanced approach for such a young hitter, working the count, making the pitcher throw strikes and using the entire field. There is average power to come, and he is a plus runner who needs some work reading pitchers. He is an excellent defensive shortstop with quick reactions and good range in both directions, as well as a strong and accurate arm. He should be hitting at or near the top of the Rangers’ order by 2011.

- Keith Law, ESPN.com

* * * * *

OF Engel Beltre | DoB: 11/1/89 | 6′ 1″, 169 lb.
Acquired via: Trade on 7/31/07 for RHP Eric Gagne
BP: #62 (Unranked in 2007) | ESPN: #98

Engel’s raw tools are absolutely tremendous, with both his power and speed rating as well above average. He has strong wrists and incredible bat speed, and some see him as a 30/30 player down the road. He shows good instincts in the outfield and has a solid arm. On a purely athletic level, there’s really nothing he can’t do.

[…]

Beltre’s approach is still far from refined, and his inability to lay off pitches out of the strike zone could affect him in a more negative way against more advanced competition. He’s clearly going to develop more power as his body matures, but it’s unknown how much of his speed he’ll maintain.

- Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus

Beltre was the key guy going back to Texas in the Eric Gagne trade. He has a clean swing with some loft in it, a plus arm, and should be an above-average glove in right. Beltre hit nine home runs in just over 200 at-bats in rookie ball, despite the fact that he played the whole season at age 17.

- Keith Law, ESPN.com

* * * * *

3B Chris Davis | DoB: 3/17/86 | 6′ 4″, 235 lb.
Acquired via: 2006 MLB Draft, 5th Round (148th overall)
BP: #74 (Unranked in 2007) | ESPN: #69

To simply say Davis has plus power doesn’t come close to doing it justice. He has mammoth, gargantuan power, and when he centers a ball is capable of tape-measure shots. His only other plus tool is his arm strength, but there is some question of how much value that will hold down the road.

[…]

The biggest knock on Davis is his defense, as he’s a slow third baseman with bad hands. The Rangers are leaving him there for now, hoping that off-season foot surgery will improve his agility, but most feel a move to first base is inevitable. Davis needs to become a more disciplined hitter, as he struck out 150 times last year while drawing just 35 walks in 495 at-bats. With his power-focused swing, the strikeouts will likely always be an issue, but he needs to be less aggressive early in the count and trust his strength more, as opposed to trying to pull everything.

- Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus

We’re comfortably in one-big-skill territory in this section of the rankings, and Davis has — you guessed it — one big skill: raw power that grades out comfortably at 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale. Davis is extremely strong and powers balls out to right and right center with a pull-oriented approach. His plate discipline is weak and he’s susceptible to even average offspeed stuff. His future at third is questionable, with a move to first the most likely outcome.

- Keith Law, ESPN.com

* * * * *

2B German Duran | DoB: 8/3/84 | 5′ 10″, 185 lb.
Acquired via: 2005 MLB Draft, 6th Round (189th overall)
BP: Unranked (Unranked in 2007) | ESPN: #48

Duran’s greatest strength is that he does nearly everything well. He has solid bat speed, good hand-eye coordination, and at least average power. Defensively, he’s fundamentally sound with soft hands, and he turns the double play well.

[…]

Duran’s greatest weakness is the flip side of his virtues–he does nothing exceptionally well. He needs to develop a more patient approach at the plate, and he’s no more than average defensively. He’s also just an average runner. Short and with a blocky build, there’s not a lot of projection in him. His stats are a bit padded by a .338/.394/.648 showing against lefties.

- Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus

Duran wasn’t a highly regarded hitting prospect out of Texas Christian University in 2005, going in the sixth round, 16 picks behind potential 2008 first-rounder Lance Lynn. But he exploded on the scene in 2007 with strong showings in Double-A, the Futures Game and the Arizona Fall League.

He has a very quick bat and takes a short path to the ball, centering very well. He is so strong up top that he drives balls out to left and left-center, helped by excellent follow-through in his swing. He has plenty of arm for third base and has average range at second base, giving the Rangers plenty of flexibility on his future position.

- Keith Law, ESPN.com

* * * * *

RHP Neftali Feliz | DoB: 5/2/88 | 6′ 3″, 180 lb.
Acquired via: Trade on 7/31/07 for 1B Mark Teixeira, LHP Ron Mahay
BP: #30 (#98 in 2007) | ESPN: Unranked

Feliz has pure gas now and projects for even more. He sits at 94-96 mph consistently, while touching 98 nearly every time out, and his heat features a hard boring action as well. He makes it look effortless with smooth, clean mechanics, and many feel there’s more in there once his skinny frame fills out a bit. His breaking ball has improved considerably from when he first signed, and he earns rave reviews for his work ethic and maturity.

[…]

Feliz can still overthrow at times, costing him command and flattening out his secondary pitches. His changeup is still a work in progress. He’s been so dominant with his fastball that he’s rarely felt the need to work on his other pitches. All in all, Feliz just needs innings and experience, and needs to learn the lessons that only come from getting hit around a bit, which as one scout put it, “might not happen for awhile.”

- Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus

* * * * *

RHP Eric Hurley | DoB: 9/17/85 | 6′ 4″, 195 lb.
Acquired via: 2004 MLB Draft, 1st Round (30th overall)
BP: #49 (#38 in 2007) | ESPN: #60

While he lacks the ultimate ceiling of many, Hurley is more of a complete package than most power righties. He has an ideal frame and sound mechanics, sitting in the low 90s with a two-seam fastball and dialing his four-seamer up to 95 when he needs a little extra. His slider is also a plus power offering with very good depth and tilt, and he commands both pitches well.

[…]

Hurley needs to improve his changeup in order to become more effective against left-handers, who have consistently hit him hard throughout his career. While he maintains his velocity well, his secondary pitches often falter as his pitch count increases. As a fly-ball pitcher, he’s not the best fit for Arlington.

- Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus

Hurley projects more as a two-pitch reliever than as a starter in the big leagues, although the Rangers will probably give him a shot in the rotation before they force a conversion. He has a fastball just above average, 91-94, touching 95, and a power slider with good tilt and depth. His delivery leaves a lot to be desired, as there’s a fair amount of effort required and he doesn’t get his lower half involved, and he has yet to develop an adequate third pitch to get lefties out consistently.

[…]

He also has a tendency to get under the ball, which will lead to a lot of home runs in Arlington. The arm is live, he throws strikes and he works well to both sides of the plate, so he’s going to have success in some role, but he’ll need at least a third pitch to earn a spot in the rotation.

- Keith Law, ESPN.com

* * * * *

RHP Michael Main | DoB: 12/14/88 | 6′ 2″, 170 lb.
Acquired via: 2007 MLB Draft, 1st Round (24th overall)
BP: #73 (Unranked in 2007) | ESPN: #46

Main’s stuff was actually better than it was during his final high school outings, as his fastball sat at 92-94 mph while touching 96 and he also showcased a power curve that already rates as plus. He’s one of the most athletic pitchers in the minors, with very smooth mechanics and excellent fielding skills.

[…]

Main’s changeup is a work in progress, though he’s shown some feel for the pitch. He needs to improve the command of his secondary pitches, and work them more effectively into his repertoire.

- Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus

Main, one of the top two-way talents in the 2007 draft, could have been a first-rounder as a hitter but was a definite first-rounder off the bump. On his best days, he will pitch 95-96 mph and hit 98 mph, and on his worst days, he will pitch at 92-95 and hit 97. His power curve has a sharp downward bite, and he is becoming more consistent with the pitch, while his changeup also is showing progress.

He is a superb athlete who probably could serve as a fifth outfielder in the big leagues if the manager were willing to be clever with his bench. Main repeats his delivery well, and with improvement in his command and secondary pitches, he has a shot to develop into a No. 1 starter. Right now, he projects as a No. 2 or 3.

- Keith Law, ESPN.com

* * * * *

C Taylor Teagarden | DoB: 12/21/83 | 6′ 1″, 200 lb.
Acquired via: 2005 MLB Draft, 3rd Round (99th overall)
BP: #77 (Unranked in 2007) | ESPN: #40

Teagardan provides good value both at the plate and behind it. Offensively, he’s a remarkably patient hitter with above-average power, as evidenced by 34 home runs and 107 walks in 148 career games. Defensively, he’s above average in every way, from blocking balls to cutting down the running game, and he’s a natural leader on the field.

[…]

Teagarden’s elbow continued to bother him during 2007, and while he was outstanding defensively when he played behind the plate, he was limited health-wise to only part-time duty there, leaving his ability to catch 140 games a year in some doubt. His swing is long and hitchy, and high strikeout totals will be with him forever. At 24, he’s only played 29 games above A-ball, and has little projection left.

- Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus

Teagarden was drafted out of the University of Texas as a plus defensive catcher who might hit a little. He blew out his elbow after signing and required Tommy John surgery, but he has developed into a better offensive player than the Rangers could have hoped for. He has a strong base at the plate and centers the ball extremely well, peppering the middle of the field with line drives, staying back well on breaking balls and showing a good two-strike approach.

His main remaining question mark is his arm, which finally showed signs of a full recovery in Arizona. It’s not a swing or hitting plan that is going to produce more than doubles power, but a catcher who works the count, hits lots of singles and doubles, and has a plus arm and good receiving skills will be one of the top 10, maybe top five, catchers in the game.

- Keith Law, ESPN.com

* * * * *

Awesome.

This entry was posted on Thursday, January 31st, 2008 at 2:14 pm and is filed under The Off-Season. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.