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Texas Rangers Draft Primer: A New Chapter

One - The number of homegrown first-round picks the Texas Rangers have developed and graduated to the big leagues as everyday players during the course of this decade.

Five - The number of draft picks general manager Jon Daniels and his estimable cabinet of advisers, headed by veteran scouting director Ron Hopkins, will have at their disposal on Thursday afternoon. Texas makes selections at picks 11, 57, 89, 123 and 153 before Day One goes down in the record books.

Eleven - The all-important, future-altering first pick that will join an increasingly dangerous stable of dominant minor league talent, collected not only through last summer’s assorted, carefully procured trade windfalls and tremendous drafting efforts, but also via international minor league free agency, thanks to the organization’s revitalized focus on inexorably stockpiling Latin American talent.

In the spirit of proper preparation - and celebration - of the momentous day which is immediately at hand, let us carefully examine the Five P’s of the 2008 Major League Baseball Draft as they pertain to the Texas Rangers: Primer, Plan, Prospects, Projections and Prognosis.

All buckled in? Then let’s get started.

Primer

What: Major League Baseball’s First-Year Player Draft (Rule 4 Draft).

When: Thursday, June 5th (1:00 PM CST to 8:00 PM CST, spanning rounds 1 through 5) and Friday, June 6th (10:30 PM CST to the end, spanning rounds 6 through 50).

Teams are allowed to select players in all 50 rounds, but are by no means obligated to do so. That being said, few teams in recent years have dropped out before the conclusion of all 50 rounds.

Where: Disney’s Wide World of Sports Complex at Lake Buena Vista, Florida.

Each team will send at least one representative to the event; for the Texas Rangers, club vice president Jim Sundberg, veteran scout Mel Didier and former second baseman Mark McLemore will be in attendance.

The first and supplemental rounds will be simulcast live on ESPN2 and MLB.com, while all remaining rounds on Day One will be aired exclusively on MLB.com and logged via MLB.com’s Draft Tracker. Five minutes will pass between each first-round pick, while just one minute will pass between each supplemental-round pick.

MVN’s MLB Draft University will also present a special interactive live broadcast chronicling the day’s events with comprehensive team reports, prospect profiles, interviews with draft experts and real-time reaction to the first-round picks as they are announced.

And XM Satellite Radio will carry the draft live, without commercial interruptions or commentary from anchors, on XM channel 188; news and analysis of the draft will also be carried on XM channel 186, featuring former New York Mets general manager Jim Duquette and XM sportscasters Holden Kushner and Grant Paulsen.

Who: Click here for much more detailed information direct from world-renowned baseball publication Baseball America on who is and is not eligible to drafted, as well as the inner workings and specifics of the drafting process.

Plan

From Anthony Andro’s excellent, in-depth interview with Jon Daniels in the June 1st edition of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram:

Will you draft for need or for talent?

We don’t believe in drafting for need. We don’t try and identify a certain position. That’s dangerous. What we try to do is put the board together based on talent. We try and take the best players available when it comes time for us to pick.

How important is it to find talent in Texas?

Without a doubt, one of the things we’ve talked about is we want to do well in our own backyard. It helps to have a hotbed. But it doesn’t seem like it’s as strong a year in Texas as it has been in previous years.

How much does signability factor into your decisions?

We line up the board exclusively on talent. We try not to let the signability part of it affect the view of the player. The signability only becomes a factor when you’re down to a couple of guys that have similar traits. We’ve shown a willingness to go above and beyond the slot if it’s the right player. But we try not to do that if it’s not necessary.

Do you plan on focusing on offense or pitching in this draft?

You can always use both of them. We’d like to continue to infuse the system with high-end pitching. Of course, every 30th pick you’ve got to make the best decision and select the best player. If you get specific, you may pass over the best player. We try to stick with that, but we’re certainly open to upside pitching.

From these insightful paragraphs, we can glean an all-encompassing, single-sentence organizational draft philosophy:

Texas will draft the best available player on the board, though possibly with a certain degree of partiality towards pitching, and, to a much lesser extent, towards signability.

Okay, so that probably didn’t tell you quit as much as you were hoping to learn. How about we dive into the most likely potential first-round picks for the Rangers at pick #11?

Prospects

1B Yonder Alonso | DoB: 04/08/87 | 6′ 2″, 215 lb.
School: University of Miami
BA: #12 | BP: #12 | Scout.com: #14

Pros: Polished, consistent college slugger with fantastic plate discipline and a reputation for being one of the draft’s safer upper-tier prospects. Flashes massive raw power to all fields and can hit for average with the best of them. Great offensive approach and outstanding makeup. Signability not an issue.

Cons: Mixed reviews on his defense; most believe he possesses above-average fielding potential at first base, while one report suggests his “poor” defense could cause National League scouting directors to shy away. Not known for having a overflowing toolbox, as his arm and speed range from subpar to adequate. Struggled against southpaws during his junior year.

Best Case Scenario: Franchise cornerstone that will pound 30-plus home runs and draw 75-plus walks per season.

1B Eric Hosmer | DoB: 10/24/89 | 6′ 4″, 215 lb.
School: American Heritage High School, Plantation, Florida
BA: #7 | BP: #6 | Scout.com: #6

Pros: Best high-school prep hitter in the draft with tremendous power to all fields and excellent contact skills, thanks to a quality offensive approach and plus-plus bat speed. Solid all-around athlete with above-average defensive potential at first base, not to mention a great arm that regularly pumped 95 MPH heat while closing for the American Heritage High School Patriots. Draws regular comparisons to Anaheim’s Casey Kotchman.

Cons: Advised by Scott Boras and thought to be seeking an enormous $7 million signing bonus, which would tie Josh Beckett and Rick Porcello for the largest ever doled out to a prepster; inking him will require going well over slot, in any event. Power arm is largely wasted at first base, but below-average speed and large frame likely prevent him from moving to right field. Some scouts question his pitch recognition skills.

Best Case Scenario: An elite power-hitting first baseman.

1B/3B Brett Wallace | DoB: 10/02/89 | 6′ 2″, 170 lb.
School: Woodrow Wilson High School, Long Beach, California
BA: #20 | BP: #17 | Scout.com: #10

Pros: Perhaps the draft’s best pure college hitter, Wallace possesses superb plate discipline, bat speed and contact skills. Above-average raw power, if not jaw-dropping. Deceptively quick baserunner and proficient basestealer, swiping 16 bases in 20 tries during the course of a monster .414/.531/.762, 21-homer campaign for the Sun Devils.

Cons: Essentially a one-trick, “bad-bodied” pony, as many reportedly believe he’s actually far north of 250 pounds and is therefore defensively limited to first base over the long haul, or perhaps even designated hitter. No word on whether he’s been adhering to the Jeremy Brown Whataburger diet.

Best Case Scenario: The left-handed Kevin Youkilis, plus 25 or so pounds?

OF/RHP Aaron Hicks | DoB: 08/26/86 | 6′ 2″, 235 lb.
School: Arizona State University
BA: #13 | BP: #10 | Scout.com: #18

Pros: Perhaps the best all-around high school athlete in the draft, Hicks is the proverbial five-tool talent, profiling similarly to Adam Jones and invoking a Darryl Strawberry comparison from Baseball America. Spectacular speed, excellent raw power potential and a ridiculous arm that is capable of dealing mid-90’s heat - as well as the makings of three plus secondary pitches - has his tremendous upside soaring through the roof.

Cons: Is said not want to pitch professionally, though there are rumblings he has somewhat backed off that stance. That wouldn’t be such a problem if there weren’t mixed reviews about his ability to make consistent contact at the plate over the long haul, as well as his overall polish. Teams will have to decide whether his extraordinary athleticism is better suited for the mound or the outfield.

Best Case Scenario: Elite defensive outfielder with 25-plus homer potential.

LHP Christian Friedrich | DoB: 07/08/87 | 6′ 3″, 210 lb.
School: Eastern Kentucky University
BA: #14 | BP: #13 | Scout.com: #15

Pros: Solid-average fastball that consistently sits anywhere from 89-to-91 MPH and can be ramped up to 94 MPH when needed. His bread-and-butter pitch, however, is a filthy, over-the-top mid-70’s curve that might just well be the best in the draft. Also has the makings of an average changeup and slider, the latter of which purportedly moves more like a cutter. Big, athletic frame, deceptive delivery and good makeup have his stock on the rise.

Cons: His uninspiring label as a “safe” choice is both a blessing and a curse, as most look at Friedrich and see a polished, upside-limited college southpaw, albeit one that could advance very quickly through the minor league ranks. Though he’s the second-best lefty in the draft behind Brian Matusz (who, by all indications, will not drop to Texas), there’s a sizable gap in potential between the two hurlers. His command profiles as nothing more than average.

Best Case Scenario: Middle-of-the-rotation starter.

RHP Andrew Cashner | DoB: 09/11/86 | 6′ 5″, 185 lb.
School: Texas Christian University
BA: #24 | BP: #20 | Scout.com: #12

Pros: Monster fastball velocity (think high-90’s, with the ability to graze the triple digits), potentially plus mid-to-high-80’s slider and relatively clean mechanics. Has been linked repeatedly to the Rangers due to his Horned Frogs affiliation. Solid, projectable frame has solidified his status as the draft’s top relief prospect, though some believe he can yet be converted back into a starting pitcher.

Cons: Lack of a true third pitch, shaky command and an unexpected velocity spike following his move from starter to closer render the possibility of a successful return to the rotation as dubious, at best. Many view him as a reach above the mid-teens.

Best Case Scenario: Dominating power closer.

RHP Gerrit Cole | DoB: 09/08/90 | 6′ 3″, 195 lb.
School: Orange Lutheran High School, Orange, California
BA: #17 | BP: #14 | Scout.com: #17

Pros: Best high school arm in the draft, with a consistent mid-90’s fastball that has been clocked at 100 MPH, a sharp-breaking slider/curve (there are conflicting reports on which it actually is) and a decent changeup. Lanky, highly projectable frame has drawn comparisons to J.J. Putz and Kyle Farnsworth.

Cons: Imperfect delivery that has scouts concerned about the potential for future arm injuries, undisclosed attitude/makeup problems and Scott Boras for an adviser; in other words, quite the formidable trio of issues for an enterprising organization to overcome. Throw in rather inconsistent command, and it’s easy to see why teams are shying away.

Best Case Scenario: An overly cocky right-handed superstar.

RHP Aaron Crow | DoB: 11/11/86 | 6′ 2″, 205 lb.
School: University of Missouri
BA: #5 | BP: #7 | Scout.com: #7

Pros: Ridiculous power arsenal, consisting of a 92-to-96 MPH fastball that can touch 98 MPH with sharp sinking action, a nasty high-80’s slider, and a potentially above-average changeup that may or may not pan out. He’s able to command the entire strike zone at will and effectively keep the ball down; in other words, he’s a pitcher, not just a thrower.

Cons: Concerning arm action that might well lead to injury problems down the road, should the mechanical kink in his delivery be left uncorrected.

Best Case Scenario: Front-line big league starter, or closer if the third pitch never quite comes around.

RHP Shooter Hunt | DoB: 08/16/86 | 6′ 3″, 200 lb.
School: Tulane University
BA: #11 | BP: #15 | Scout.com: #9

Pros: Quality four-seam and two-seam fastballs that normally sit at 91-to-92 MPH and top out at 94 MPH. His off-speed offerings include a devastating power curve that was deemed the second-best secondary pitch among all college pitchers by Baseball America and a developing, albeit seldom-seen changeup that might evolve into a plus asset.

Cons: High walk totals and somewhat questionable command have some scouts balking, though one report cites the primary origin of his struggles as being a “nibble-the-corners” mentality that he’ll probably, but not definitely, outgrow. Raw upside is somewhat limited, though not nearly as much as Friedrich’s is.

Best Case Scenario: No. 2 starter, assuming he hammers out his command issues and learns to consistently throw his curve for strikes.

RHP/3B Ethan Martin | DoB: 06/06/89 | 6′ 2″, 195 lb.
School: Stephens County High School, Toccoa, Georgia
BA: #16 | BP: #11 | Scout.com: #22

Pros: Two-way athlete with legitimate power potential and tremendous athleticism at third base; however, it’s more likely he’ll be drafted and groomed as a pitcher. On the mound, he offers a solid mid-90’s fastball, slurve-like secondary pitch and surprisingly advanced changeup for a high schooler, along with improving, but not yet completely refined mechanics. Scouts love his strong body and competitive drive. Stock on the rise.

Cons: Lack of history and roughness around the edges, along with all the inherent risks that high school players carry.

Best Case Scenario: Upper-tier rotation anchor, capable of falling back on his tremendous offensive potential if the pitching thing falls through for whatever reason.

Projections

What are the experts saying?

Jim Callis, Baseball America:

Eric Hosmer - Texas always seems to be on the hunt for pitching, and there might be just one of the first-round-caliber college starters on the board. The Rangers always seem to be cutting draft deals with Boras, too. Hosmer would still need a home, and it’s frightening to think of the damage he could do in Arlington.

Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus:

Aaron Crow - The Rangers would be pleasantly surprised to see one of the elite college players fall to them. Barring such a plummet, there’s been some talk of them selecting a college closer, as well as a late surge for high school pitcher Ethan Martin, one of the more athletic and projectable arms in the draft. In this scenario, Crow is just far too good a talent to let him slide any further, and as always seems to be the case, Texas needs pitching.

Evan Grant, Dallas Morning News:

Christian Friedrich - Only the University of San Diego’s Brian Matusz is a more polished lefty in this draft. Friedrich throws a fastball in the 89-94 mph range, a curve, a slider and a solid change. He’s had some blister problems. Bonus situation: Should receive slot money.

John Sickels, Minor League Ball:

Eric Hosmer - Rangers shell out big bucks.

Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com:

Andrew Cashner - There have been four names mentioned prominently here: Cashner, Hunt, Aaron Hicks and SoCal high school pitcher Gerrit Cole. Georgia prepster Ethan Martin could still figure into the mix as well. But we’ll stick with the guy in the Rangers’ backyard for now.

Frankie Piliere, SaberScouting.com

Gerrit Cole - If this isn’t an ideal match, then I don’t know what is. The Rangers have never been afraid to take power arms in the prep ranks with makeup concerns and Cole may be the best arm in the draft. They are also, historically, not at all bothered by working with Scott Boras. If he doesn’t go here, he could fall but this really seems like a great landing place for Cole.

Kiley McDaniel, SaberScouting.com

Shooter Hunt - I would agree that Cole is an easy choice here, but I think Texas opts for a college arm here with all those prep arms coming along slowly. And their GM tells me (okay, tells another reporter) that college arm sounds great to him. Texas drafted Hunt out of high school, still needs pitching, might not want another prep arm, but still wants upside. I think Hunt might be the perfect pick here, rather than Cole.

Steve Henson, Yahoo! Sports:

Eric Hosmer - Few players excite scouts like Hosmer, a pure power hitter who also can step on the mound and throw in the mid-90s. He might have the most potential of any hitter in the draft. However, Hosmer is represented by Boras and has a scholarship to Arizona State, so he could be a difficult player to sign.

Prognosis

As the stellar Jamey Newberg wrote back on June 1st, it’s all about “constant, relentless, creative asset accumulation.”

Of course, some assets are more valuable than others, and bearing that in mind, here is how I would shape my own personal draft board (along with, in the cases of the two-way prospects, which path of development I would select), assuming that each of the 10 draft prospects listed above were available for the taking at pick #11:

1. RHP Aaron Crow
2. 1B Eric Hosmer
3. RHP Ethan Martin
4. OF Aaron Hicks
5. RHP Shooter Hunt
6. RHP Andrew Cashner
7. 1B Yonder Alonso
8. RHP Gerrit Cole
9. 1B Brett Wallace
10. LHP Christian Friedrich

There you have it, the Five P’s. Just one P left.

Pray.

This entry was posted on Thursday, June 5th, 2008 at 2:27 am and is filed under MLB Draft, Prospects, The Season. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.