MVN - Most Valuable Network

Deconstructing Ian Kinsler’s Defense (Or Lack Thereof)

There is no doubting that Texas Rangers second baseman Ian Kinsler (.323/.381/.533 in 353 AB, 143 OPS+, .313 EqA) has been one of the American League’s most dynamic offensive performers thus far in 2008.

But one of the many long-standing tenets of professional baseball is that superior defense up the middle (at catcher, second base, shortstop and center field) is an absolutely essential component of a true championship-caliber ball club.

Bearing that (and the Rangers’ perpetual championship dreams) in mind, I felt it would be useful to see just how far Kinsler’s defensive game has matured and progressed since last season.

The answer? Probably not as much as we’d like to think. Or perhaps not at all.

Thoroughly inspired by Richard Durrett’s Thursday afternoon investigation of Kinsler’s questionable defensive ability at second base, I quickly rummaged through some numbers at The Hardball Times in an attempt to acquire a better grasp of what currently ails him fielding-wise:

Ian Kinsler - 2006 to 2008 Fielding Statistics
Year	Innings	TE	FE	BIZ	Plays	RZR	OOZ
2006	1,032	7	11	388	321	.827	20
2007	1,136	4	13	362	306	.845	53
2008	734	5	11	251	201	.801	16

“TE” refers to “Throwing Errors,” while “FE,” of course, coincides with “Fielding Errors;” “BIZ” stands for “Balls In Zone,” a fielding statistic that represents the total number of balls that were batted into a fielder’s zone while he was in the field, while “OOZ” stands for “Out Of Zone,” or the total number of outs made by a fielder on balls hit outside of his fielding zone.

“RZR,” or “Revised Zone Rating,” can be thought of as simply the proportion of balls hit into a fielder’s zone that he successfully converted into an out; in other words, dividing the number of plays made by the total number of balls batted into a fielder’s fielding zone results in their ultimate RZR.

See anything fishy right off the bat? If not, you probably should. Kinsler has already committed more throwing errors in 734 innings played in the field this season than in the 1,136 innings he posted in the field in 2007, and is on pace to set new career highs in both areas. But what’s even more startling is his apparent statistical regression range-wise, something I did not expect to see when poring over this data.

Not only has Kinsler’s RZR gone significantly backwards (ranking a dismal ninth out of 10 qualifying AL second basemen, and 18th out of 22 qualifying ML second basemen), but with 86 games of the Rangers’ 162-game Major League schedule in the books, Kinsler is well behind his career-high 2007 pace where OOZ outs are concerned. That’s more than a little troubling, particularly given that Chris Dial’s Defensive Runs Saved metric already pegged Ian as a slightly below-average defensive second baseman last season.

The errors (well, the fielding ones at least) are not nearly as disconcerting as the lack of the range; after all, as the great Bill James once wrote, “you have to do something right to get an error; even if the ball is hit right at you, then you were standing in the right place to begin with.” But compounding the two deficiencies together is a recipe for disaster.

A callback to last September 27th, when Kinsler was kind enough to answer my terribly specific question on his defense:

Joey Matschulat: It’s no secret that you’ve been a changed man at second base defensively, compared to earlier in the season. Do you feel like your month-long stint on the disabled list back in July helped you regain some focus and confidence in that regard?

Ian Kinsler: Yes. Art Howe and Ron Washington worked with me five days a week at 2 p.m. every day on footwork and hand positioning when fielding ground balls. Earlier in the season, I tried to incorporate what Wash wanted me to do without knowing how to do it. I think I lacked some confidence in it because I was uncomfortable. The time on the DL allowed me to gain confidence in what he was trying to teach me. I played short all my life and this was the first real in-depth course I got at playing second base. It’s been rewarding.

Roughly nine months later, I’m not quite sure what to think anymore.

Do you?

This entry was posted on Friday, July 4th, 2008 at 1:46 am and is filed under The Season. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.