MVN - Most Valuable Network

Statistically Assessing The Texas Rangers’ First-Half MVP

The All-Star break generally offer the Major League player a brief period of rest and tranquility from the inherent physical and mental rigors created by the oft-chaotic first half of the baseball season, allowing him to quietly reflect and meditate over his performance (or lack thereof) to date while simultaneously calculate how he can be even better in the second half.

That exact same principle applies to baseball writers, particularly the true die-hards who do it for little more than the love of the game - and, of course, their beloved team.

With just 66 games left in their 2008 season, the Texas Rangers cling to the fringes of the American League playoff race at 50-46, staring down the barrel of a perilous, make-or-break nine-game road trip that begins on Friday evening in Minnesota. So much about this remarkably resilient baseball team has already been answered - and yet, so much uncertainty regarding the next two and a half months still lingers in the air.

But first thing’s first: who is the Rangers’ first-half Most Valuable Player?

Is it the grizzled veteran shortstop (Michael Young), Tuesday evening’s real All-Star Game hero with the 15th-inning walk-off sacrifice fly? Perhaps the dynamic center fielder (Josh Hamilton), who gave Yankee Stadium the ultimate sendoff with his unforgettable effort in Monday’s All-Star Home Run Derby? Maybe the misunderstood sabermetric deity (Milton Bradley), who continues to lead the American League in on-base and slugging percentage? Or how about the emerging young second baseman (Ian Kinsler), who’s currently on pace for a 24-homer, 39-steal junior campaign?

As Mr. Owl once famously replied when asked how many licks it took to get to the Tootsie Roll center of a Tootsie Pop: “Let’s find out.” For the purposes of simplicity, we’ll limit this to the four most obvious contenders for the crown - all of whom received All-Star nods, and all of whom are indeed the best possible candidates for a variety of reasons:

2008 MLB Statistics - Through 7/16/08
Player	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	EqA	MLVr	PMLVr	VORP
Milton Bradley, DH-RF	332	.316/.440/.610	.345	.468	.465	43.3
Josh Hamilton, CF-RF	425	.310/.367/.552	.309	.285	.265	38.6
Ian Kinsler, 2B	452	.337/.397/.548	.322	.351	.338	52.4
Michael Young, SS	426	.302/.350/.427	.273	.076	.127	24.8

As usual, a brief primer (or re-primer, if you will) on some of the more potentially intimidating statistics provided in the above table:

• Equivalent Average (EqA) - Measures total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. The scale is deliberately set to approximate that of batting average; a .290 or .300 EqA, for instance, is quite solid. League-average EqA is always equal to .260, though keep in mind that positional differences aren’t factored into EqA.
• Marginal Lineup Value rate of production (MLVr) - The number of runs per game the batter contributed to a league-average team beyond what a league-average hitter would produce. Again, positional differences are not accounted for here.
• Positional Marginal Lineup Value rate (PMLVr) - Ah, finally. The number of runs per game contributed by a batter beyond what an average player at the same position would hit on a team consisting of otherwise league-average hitters. Positional differences finally get their dues here.
• Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) - The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances.

For those of you wondering if any Texas pitchers were even remotely in the running for this prestigious title, southpaw Eddie Guardado’s 9.5 VORP is easily the best on the staff, followed by long-departed sinkerballer Franklyn German (7.9 VORP) and the right-handed duo of Frank Francisco (6.4 VORP) and Josh Rupe (5.6 VORP).

In a dark bit of humor, Eric Hurley’s 5.0 VORP compiled over four starts is the best of any Rangers starting pitcher, which gives you some indication of just how unstable this rotation core really is, and just how difficult it truly will be for this club to remain in contention over these final two and a half months. But I badly digress.

With the golden age of American League shortstops long since passed, Young has easily reigned as the best offensive shortstop in the Junior Circuit this season, and perhaps the best all-around shortstop as well, in spite of his increasingly obvious defensive shortcomings. That being said, not even veteran leadership or chemistry continuously oozing from his ears could pull him even with the devastatingly potent triumvirate of Bradley, Kinsler and Hamilton.

Here’s where it begins to get tricky. And I mean really, really tricky. Kinsler’s fast-developing power stroke (he’s currently on pace for 89 extra-base hits this season, which would be the fifth-most by a second baseman in modern Major League history), overwhelming success on the basepaths (23 steals in 24 attempts) and reputed emergence as a leader in the Rangers clubhouse render him an incredibly enticing choice - his apparent defensive regression notwithstanding, of course.

And then there’s Bradley and Hamilton, perhaps the most dangerous offensive one-two punch in baseball when healthy. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News laid out an intriguing scenario in his latest “Inside the Rangers” newsletter on Wednesday evening, suggesting that Josh’s monstrous power exhibition in the Home Run Derby might incite a trickle-down effect that could eventually impact how the franchise is perceived around baseball - and for the better, too.

Do I completely buy into that line of thought? No. But is there some probable truth to it? Almost certainly. And to that end, I think there is some definite value to be derived from a player who is single-handedly capable of bettering his team’s league-wide reputation as a destination that free agents, trade acquisitions, draft picks and international signees alike actually want to be a part of.

But that is neither here nor there in regard to the question that remains before us. And as horribly tempted as I am to go against the grain and select Bradley or Hamilton as the Rangers’ first-half MVP, I simply cannot do so with good conscience, in spite of the statistical evidence that suggests Milton, when present in the lineup, is a far more significant contributor. Just 50 or 60 more plate appearances with identical rate statistics (AVG/OBP/SLG) might have swayed me into Bradley’s corner.

My personal pick? Give me Ian. But it’s so, so close.

Nearly 180 loyal BTiA readers weighed in with their thoughts on who deserved to be called the Rangers’ top overall prospect following last month’s release of the BTiA Top 25 Prospect Rankings; Double-A Frisco flamethrower Neftali Feliz handily won with 41.3 percent of the vote, followed by the remarkable Chris Davis (31.3 percent) and RoughRiders shortstop Elvis Andrus (10.6 percent). You can still check out the final voting breakdown here.

And after you’re done, I implore you to check out the brand new poll on the right, and perhaps even drop a comment if you entirely agree or vehemently disagree with my assessment.

To again repeat one of my favorite lines from my February preview for SpringTraining08.com: “No matter the outcome, it promises to be an exciting ride.”

Little did I know how unnervingly prophetic those words would be.

Quick Hits: First baseman Hank Blalock (carpal tunnel surgery) went 1-for-2 with a walk for Frisco on Wednesday evening, and is expected to rejoin the Rangers on Friday…Oklahoma RedHawks outfielder Nelson Cruz posted a 1-for-3, one-walk performance in the 2008 Triple-A All-Star Game, scoring a critical run in the Pacific Coast League’s narrow 6-5 victory…Low-A Clinton outfielder Engel Beltre went 3-for-4 with a triple and two runs scored in a 6-1 LumberKings victory; the 18-year-old Dominican native is currently hitting .292/.314/.440 in 391 AB in the Midwest League this season.

This entry was posted on Thursday, July 17th, 2008 at 2:16 am and is filed under The Season. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.