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A Tale of Two Eric’s: Bossman Junior

For those who haven’t noticed, Spring Training is finally upon us! With my final steroid report (at least I hope) behind us, we can continue to focus on the players that will actually make a difference in the 2008 season.

During the Rays Anatomy’s positional previews, we’ve tried to give you two different takes on the athletes that suit up for Tampa Bay. Using the scouts versus stats mantra, we take a physical look and then a numerical breakdown of the statistics. It’s interesting, as sometimes the two endorsements don’t match when analyzing the player.

Just to refresh, here’s who we’ve covered so far:

Dioner Navarro
Akinori Iwamura
Carl Crawford
Carlos Pena

Today, we tackle the starting center fielder for the Rays, BJ Upton. Most people know I’m a big fan of Bossman Junior, but let’s break down this uber talent a bit more.

SanInocencio’s Take:

As any Pittsburgh Pirates fan can tell you, BJ Upton was the second overall selection in the 2002. Chosen behind former Ball State pitcher Bryan Bullington, Upton was the consensus top talent available. A shortstop with dazzling tools, Baseball America wrote this about him in their draft bio.

“On the standard 20-80 scouting scale, he has a 75-80 arm (he can throw 90 mph across the diamond and 92 off a mound) and 70 speed (he runs the 60 in 6.55 seconds). Scouts compare Upton to a young Derek Jeter, right down to the swagger. Upton is further along in his development than Jeter at a comparable age. “

Tampa Bay fans did what they should have, and salivated to the thought of Upton roaming the middle infield for the next 15 years. To make it even better, just two years after he was drafted, the Virginia native showed up at Tropicana Field. All indicators pointed to instant stardom for the elder Upton, but his glove and attitude kept him at bay for the next few seasons.

Upton’s athletic ability failed to translate into the gold glove shortstop that many imagined he’d become. After a great season with the stick in 2005 at Triple-A, cracks started to show. He made 53 errors that year, as the routine plays became a problem. Then the walls caved in a year later, with 2006 being a rough year for the top prospect.

Sent back to Triple-A to work on his fielding, Upton sulked at the plate and saw almost every offensive category drop in production. He hit just .269 that season, after hitting over .300 in his minor league career. His power numbers dropped, with his slugging percentage dipping 100 points during that span (compared to his 2005 numbers).

Upton’s mouth didn’t help either, as he made remarks criticizing the organization. He also faced DUI charges, and was lumped into the “trio” with Elijah Dukes and Delmon Young. That threesome showed undeniable talent, but questionable character and served as a black eye on the Tampa Bay franchise that year. He also switched positions, going to third base and left field in attempts of finding him a spot at the major league level.

2007 started with a lot of uncertainty concerning Upton, who was penciled in as “super-utility player” at the start of Spring Training. New manager Joe Maddon hoped to take defensive pressure off Upton, in hopes that his bat would find itself. Starting at second base, Upton seemed to reconnect to the great player everyone forecasted years ago.

Then, something happened. Upton settled in center, and let his natural talent take over. Even though he missed time with injury, Upton’s 2007 numbers were outstanding for such a young player. He hit .300 with 24 home runs in just 129 games, posting a 894 OPS. Upton stole 20 bases, drove in 82 and scored 86 times. It was the second biggest surprise of the season for Tampa, behind only the 46 home runs of Carlos Pena.

Defensively the game started to click for Upton as well. Even though he’s raw in his routes, his speed and athletiscism transferred well to CF. His arm is strong, and the more he learns how to track flyballs, you could be talking about Andruw Jones in his prime like defense.

Believe it or not, offensively I think he still has room to grow. BJ is learning how to incorporate his lower half more, as evidenced by how his swing changed last season. Prior to 2007, Upton relied on his superior wrists to create all the torque in his swing. Now, he’s starting to rotate his hips more, getting the lower half involved.

For such a wiry frame, he creates unbelievable batspeed. That’s a good indicator that more power is to come, with the 40 home run plateau being reachable in his prime. His plate discipline is top notch, and other than his huge number of strikeouts there isn’t much to worry about. He was extremely lucky on his BABIP (batting average on balls in play), so that means his batting average should drop some in the coming years.

He whiffs alot (154 last year), but I think that will only get better as he learns what to attack in the strike zone. You can make the argument that his plate discipline causes him to get behind in the count some, contributing slightly to his higher number of Ks. That can get better, but even if it stayed the same, you’d take the other numbers he put up.

Upton is on the cusp of becoming a superstar, and can quickly become the face of the franchise if he stays on this path. The Upton brothers (Justin plays for the Diamondbacks) are blessed with unreal talent, and if they stay healthy can go down in history as the best pair of siblings to ever play. That’s a long way off, but that’s how strongly I believe in their ability. What do the numbers say? Let’s see.

Seidman’s Take:

Well, the fact that this blog was able to generate much support for BJ Upton in a “Great Debates” post against Robinson Cano speaks for the volume of upside and talent of the former #2 overall pick.  I remember thinking that Upton was bought up too early in 2004 and when he did not surface again until 2006 I thought something had happened and he might not have been all he was cracked up to be.  2007, at least, proved I was mistaken.

Though only playing 129 games due to an injury, Upton posted incredible offensive numbers while switching positions from 2B to CF. He finished in the top 10 in Slugging %, OPS, OPS+, and AB/HR, while posting the 5th best Power/Speed Number in the
AL at 23.0.

According to Baseball Prospectus, Upton posted a higher EqA (a stat that measures all offensive output and adjusts for various factors) than any other AL Centerfielder and accounted for more Runs Above Replacement Player than all AL CF except Ichiro and Grady Sizemore. And he is only 22 years old.

Most of the projections out there on Upton should not be taken as anything close to gospel as these projection systems weight the previous seasons of a player. While that is generally a good basis, Upton just played his first full season. The Marcel Projection of a modest 17 HR and 64 RBI results from the dearth of statistics in 2004 and 2006. 

I do not believe Upton is a 40/40 guy just yet but I would peg him to be in the 25-33 HR range.  I would not be surprised in the least if he posts a 30/30 season, as well. 

His BABIP last year was .393, which is rather high, and he also finished amongst the leaders in strikeouts.  While his strikeout rate will likely decrease with more experience, his BABIP is unlikely to remain as high, meaning his batting average may fall to the .270-.288 range, which still is not shabby at all.

There is not much more to project on Upton, as I see it, other than the positional change.  BJ can cement himself as an elite, or elite-in-training, centerfielder this year by building on his 2007 efforts. He has an absolute cannon for an arm and is going to be an integral part to the Rays eventually contending (which I do see happening in the next couple of years).

We could sit here and talk about all of the stats he may put up in 2008 but he has only played a full season once and was injured for some of it. After this season we will have a better idea of what to expect from BJ. 

The forecast though, based on last year, looks to be very promising. This will be his first full season as a centerfielder and he will have an abundance of expectations. For a #2 overall pick, though, his whole life will consist of expectations. This will be a very important year for the Big Bossman and, barring an injury, I see no reason why he cannot significantly build on what he did last year.

This entry was posted on Thursday, February 14th, 2008 at 12:24 pm and is filed under A Tale Of Two Eric's, BJ Upton. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.