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Breaking Down The Rays Top Prospect Lists

As I mentioned earlier in the week, Baseball America released their top 100 prospects of 2008 list. In this article I will compare how the Rays prospects compare on the Baseball America’s list to the Baseball Prospectus and Scouts Inc. lists from earlier in the year.

The Rays were well represented in Baseball America’s list with seven prospects in the top 100, including four in the top 17. Headlining the Rays list is Evan Longoria. Longoria checked in  at #2 on Baseball America’s list behind Jay Bruce at #1. Longoria was #1 on Scouts Inc.’s list and #3 on Baseball Prospectus list.

It’s safe to say Evan is a consensus top 3 prospect by a lot of the baseball experts. I’ve looked at both the PECOTA projection for Longoria and the ESPN fantasy projection and both are very favorable. Longoria’s PECOTA has him with a line of .266/.339/.459 with 25 home runs and 87 RBI. He also checks in with the third highest VORP for a rookie batter with 25.4 behind Bruce and Cubs RF Kosuke Fukudome.

The ESPN projection for Longoria is also very similar .275/.357/.456 with 22 home runs and 99 RBI. Either one is just fine with me and should put Evan right up there for the rookie of the year award.

I’ll move to next tier of prospects under Longoria, starting with David Price. Price hasn’t even thrown a professional pitch (besides Spring Training practice) and already he is at least in the top 16 of the three major lists I looked at. He comes in at #10 on Baseball America’s list. Scouts Inc. had him a little lower at 16, however, Baseball Prospectus had him solidly in the top 10 at #6.

In Baseball Prospectus 2008 book, Price’s comparisons are pretty interesting; Mark Mulder, Paul Wilson, Mark Prior, Dewon Brazelton are the pitchers listed as Price comparisons. Immediately, I shutter even thinking about Price as the next Dewon Brazelton or Paul Wilson for that matter.

However, I like the Mulder and Prior comparisons, of course without the injury histories. One recently comparison Price has drawn was from new teammate Jason Bartlett, who compared Price to Francisco Liriano. I asked Baseball America’s Senior Editor Jim Callis if he felt the comparison was fair.

Here is what Mr. Callis told me “Their stuff is very similar, and so is their command. Lirano might have more power in his arsenal, but not much. Price is bigger and has a better medical history.”

The lefty-righty duo of Jake McGee and Wade Davis are next up on our list. Davis’s rankings on the lists are the most consistent of any Rays prospect. He comes in at 15 on both Scouts Inc. and Baseball Prospectus and 17 on Baseball America’s list. Davis is my favorite Rays pitching prospect. He is a big kid 6’5 220 with a plus fastball that consistently hits the mid 90s. He also has a very good breaking ball that some scouts rate higher than the fast ball. His third pitch is a change-up, but it is far behind the other two. I’d like to see him work more on his command this year. I fully expect him to be a top 10, even possibly, a top 5 prospect next year.

McGee is the opposite of Davis in regards to ranking. Baseball America has the lefty at number 15, Scouts Inc has him at 26, and Baseball Prospectus really has a different opinion on him ranking him down at 40.

The biggest knock on McGee is his lack of a secondary pitch. Few prospects, especially left handed prospects, can match McGee’s velocity, but beyond that McGee doesn’t have much of an arsenal. That velocity has worked for him at the lower minor league levels, but in order to continue on as a starter McGee at the higher levels and Majors, he will need to develop at least one more plus pitch and maybe another show me pitch as a third. If that doesn’t happen many believe McGee can be moved to the bullpen and be a shutdown closer.

Rounding out the cream of the Rays crop are two very talented position players, Reid Brignac and Desmond Jennings. The consensus among the three lists is places Brignac in the 25-50 range. He was 25 on BP’s list, 39 on BA, and number 49 on Scouts Inc. I tend to lean more toward the BP ranking on Brignac.

While his 2007 season was somewhat disappointing from the plate, he still made strides on defense. Once thought of as a definite candidate to move from short stop, Brignac is now projecting as a major league short stop with average range and 25-30 home run power. I don’t know about you, but that sounds like a top 25 prospect to me. 2008 will be a huge season for Brignac.

The Rays acquisition of Jason Bartlett gives the Rays an alternative to Brignac should he continue to regress offensively. One idea I’ve been throwing out is a possible move to RF for Brignac, but am yet to see or hear any evidence of it being a possibility.

Last, but definitely not least of Rays prospect that were ranked on all three lists, is Rays talented OF Desmond Jennings.  He was just outside of the top 10 on Scouts Inc at number 11. Baseball Prospectus has Dez in the top 20 at 18.

However, Baseball America is not that high on Jennings ranking him number 59 on their top 100 list. I’ve yet to hear a real bad scouting report on Jennings. In  the Baseball Prospectus 2008 book, the BP experts say Jennings “just might be the next big thing.” They also are  projecting him as a leadoff man with 20  /50 steal potential.

Here are the best of the rest:

Jeremy Hellickson, the talented young righty from Iowa, was ranked number 75 by Scouts Inc. He failed to make Baseball Prospectus list, but did receive honorable mention by Baseball America. Hellickson has been handled with gloves by the Rays making only 36 appearances of the past two years. Like McGee he needs to develop more than just a fastball, but has plenty of time to do so.

Catching prospect John Jaso, like Jeremy Hellickson, was ranked on Scouts Inc. (78) and received honorable mention on Baseball America. He also was left off Baseball Prospectus list. Questions about his defense and injury history are still out there; however, his ability to hit is not.

Fernando Perez only makes one list, coming in at 72 on Scouts Inc. top 100. While he has enjoyed success at every stop, his age has worked against him. He opted to get his four year degree at Ivy League school, Columbia before playing pro ball. Perez will likely start the season at AAA Durham and might see some action in the bigs should there be an injury.

The last prospect to make the any of the three lists is Jeff Niemann, who barely made the Baseball America list at 99. He did not receive mention on any of the other lists. Niemann seemed to answer some questions about his durability, pitching 131 innings at AAA Durham last year.

However, his results did not live up to that of a fourth overall pick. Using Baseball Prospectus’s “STUFF”, a rating that measures a pitchers demonstrated skills relative to age and level, Niemann’s rating for 2007 was a -9. The average pitcher should score a 10, top prospects 20, and elite pitchers 30+. Nevertheless, Niemann has a good shot of cracking the Rays rotation at some point this season.

This entry was posted on Friday, February 29th, 2008 at 2:17 pm and is filed under Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, ESPN, rays prospects. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.