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Outs Per Swing
Longoria Should Start In Triple-A
One decision. For the better of this season, or for the security of six years later. That effectively describes the choice Rays management is destined to make regarding the consensus top prospect in the organization.
Third baseman Evan Longoria, one of the crown jewels of a farm system that ranks among baseball’s best, is in major league camp proving every day that he belongs in the lineup come March 31st. He has hit well, got on base and fielded his position. ”Longo” has exhibited character, humbleness and maturity beyond his years. There isn’t a player on the major league squad that will tell you he’s not ready for Tropicana Field.
All that being said, he must be sent back to Triple-A when camp breaks next week. I know, it sounds ludicrous. I just spent an entire paragraph telling you why he SHOULD be there. Unfortunately for Longoria and the throngs of Tampa Bay fans who hope for his early arrival, economics and common sense tell us not to follow our hearts in this situation. Money and service time are real issues, and it serves the organization and fan base to make sure that 2014 is better secured that this year. What do I mean? Let’s delve.
Baseball, unlike other sports, determines a player’s eligibility for free agency by the amount of time he has spent in the majors. In most instances, a team has six years with a certain athlete before they must then bid against others for his services.
Now, three of those years are under a scale-type salary, where teams have complete leverage over the amount they hand out. The final three years of the original six are arbitration-eligible, which allows the player to stand before an “arbitrator” to argue his case for more dinero if they feel they are being shortchanged. It doesn’t happen often, but these cases are settled in Spring Training, and then the contract is doled out that year.
So, the benefit of keeping a player down in the minors can be significant, meaning your squad can earn an extra year on the back end by prolonging their debut. If you remember, Delmon Young and others complained about this a few years ago, when they felt they weren’t being called up due to this practice. Whether they were right or wrong, the Rays are far from the only team that keep close eye on service time in hopes of maximizing their time with top prospects.
Back to Longoria. Applying the same math we tried to explain earlier, starting the former Long Beach State star in Camden Yards this April will have ramifications down the road. Way down the road mind you, but still an impact that could be critical. Those extra days he’ll accumulate at the beginning of the year get him to the free agent market quicker, and that can’t be in the best interests of Tampa Bay fans.
The reason that’s true has more to do with the team around him than anything he can achieve in the season’s opening month. This point of contention also has bearing with a fan base maybe expecting a bit too much out of their team this year.
Thanks to some preseason projection systems, Rays fans have an even bigger glimpse at hope this upcoming year. After seasons residing in the AL East cellar, the demise of Baltimore plus the fruition of a strong farm system have people believing. Tampa Bay has received more national coverage than I can remember, even though some of it had more to do with Shelly Duncan than any success Joe Maddon’s crew has had. That hype has raised expectations, to a degree that isn’t possible in my mind.
Read some of the Rays blog out there, and you’ll hear a constant chatter about not just finishing 3rd in the East, but making a run at the playoffs! Playoffs (Think Jim Mora)? You have to love the optimism, but is that really a reachable goal?
With 36 games against two of the best teams in the American League (Boston, New York), can the Rays really expect to reach the 90-plus win plateau it will take to secure a spot in the postseason? I just can’t see it. The uncertainty in the bottom of the rotation to go along with young players still acclimating themselves leaves little room for error.
Scott Kazmir will miss starts, and no matter how much talent BJ Upton and Matt Garza have, they are still relatively unproven at this level. To expect everything to fall perfectly seems a bit myopic and unrealistic, yet you still read and hear this talk quite often.
That’s why most fans are pushing for Longoria to be promoted, so in their mind they’ll send out the best nine available as they hope to make their run to the Fall Classic. What they don’t want to realize, or are perhaps tired of hearing, is that this decision falls in line with the mantra that has been preached for years. Be patient. Keep waiting. Your time will come.
It is highly unlikely that the Rays make the playoffs. So, the question becomes, is it better to win 84 games, or 78? Well, if it means you hurt your future chances, than you have to choose 78. That’s assuming that Longoria for two extra months means six wins, with is more than generous.
What the Rays are trying to build is a sustained competition for the next decade. I can’t imagine that in the midst of all this planning they’d succumb to emotions and entertain an extra two months of Evan Longoria. I’m not advocating Evan not playing this season, but just that fans and management wait until Memorial Day.
If you do that, then in 2014 you’ll have Evan Longoria reaching his peak seasons while penciled into the middle of your order. At age 27, one has to think that he’ll be better than he is right now. More mature, stronger and capable of putting up better numbers. Couple that with then ace David Price, and you have a team full of blue chip players on the field, not just in the prospect books. While they may not be the team we recognize today, it will still presumably have more a chance to compete for a championship than the 2008 version.
I know it’s hard to separate feelings from rational thought sometimes, but you have to think with your head in most instances where your heart pulls you in another direction. If Longoria can be patient, than so can we. It’s better for the fans in the end, and better for the organization. We all can wait two more months.
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on Friday, March 21st, 2008 at 4:49 pm and is filed under Evan Longoria.
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13 Responses to “Longoria Should Start In Triple-A”
March 21st, 2008 at 5:02 pm
“Scott Kazmir will miss starts, and no matter how much talent BJ Upton and Matt Garza have, they are still relatively unproven at this level.”
Scott Kazmir isn’t scheduled to miss any starts per say, at this point it’s the opening day start, but the murmurs have it that he’ll start in the fifth spot possibly or only miss the first turn before making a start @ NYY.
Also including B.J. who had a great season with Garza in terms of “proven” ability is pretty unfair, that’s like saying Joba’s season last year meant nothing and he’s proven as much as Ian Kennedy.
March 21st, 2008 at 5:15 pm
True. That’s what I’m saying. There are way too many variables in play to assume that it will all go perfectly. What if Kaz goes down? Or anything else like that in terms of health? There is far less certainty when it comes to Tampa.
I agree with your comment on Joba and Ian, but they are collectively the 5th starter and setup man of the team. There are others who should shoulder the bigger load. Kaz is Tampa’s ace, and the Rays lineup doesn’t quite stack up to the Bombers.
March 21st, 2008 at 5:41 pm
Kazmir has yet to pitch in a ST game and hasn’t been cleared by Maddon to pitch bullpen sessions over the last 8 days (unless that changed today). Pretty tough to see him not missing at least two turns through the rotation even if everything gets back on track pronto.
March 21st, 2008 at 10:57 pm
I agree with you on all counts. I especially want to stress the somewhat giddy optimism in some quarters about the Rays’ chances to contend. I don’t think it is impossible, but I do think it is unlikely enough that sacrificing a full year’s certainty of having Longoria at his peak in return for an extra few weeks or even months when he is inexperienced seems foolhardy.
There is a lot of talent on this team, that’s true. But aside from so much of it being relatively untested, there is also a pretty obvious weakness, and that is in the rotation. Even if you accept Kazmir as still getting 30 starts and Garza emerging as a solid major leaguer after so little time in the bigs, that still leaves 2 spots of uncertainty.
I happen to like Sonnanstine and think he can fill one very effectively, but were I dispassionate, I would have to admit that in reality the Rays will possibly be at a disadvantage in 40% of the team’s games. (I think I am parroting Rays Index in that statement, but I think it is a valid insight.) If the last two spots go to Jackson and Hammel, although there is hope for each, especially Jackson, their history gives little cause for confidence.
If therefore it is unlikely that the Rays are legitimate contenders in 2008, it makes no difference if we win 75 games or 80 games.
March 21st, 2008 at 11:01 pm
“Those extra days he’ll accumulate at the beginning of the year get him to the free agent market quicker, and that can’t be in the best interests of Tampa Bay fans.”
I agree with your point on why Longo should be sent to the minors. It makes all the sense. Send him back for a few months and let Aybar proves he can handle the position. Bring Longo back and make Aybar a super utility guy. Heck, they can try him in the outfield. I think with Rocko’s injury and Floyd’s lack of skills to play OF could make sense.
March 22nd, 2008 at 12:07 pm
I agree…waiting until June to call him up, and thus avoiding Longoria from becoming a Super Two, would give the Rays one more year of control.
March 22nd, 2008 at 3:34 pm
Super Two does not cost the team a season.
As long as he misses the first 11 games, he will not be eligible for FA until after the 2014 season. Super Two is a completely different rule that only pertains to how many arbitration seasons a player has during his pre-FA years. It doesn’t mean one less pre-FA season. It means 4 years of arbitration rather than the normal 3. A player still has to accrue more than 6 service years before he can be eligible for FA.
March 22nd, 2008 at 4:49 pm
Most of the American League is looking at the Rays and wondering if they will hit 85+ wins this year, as prelude to the playoffs in 2009. What a rush. What a transformation.
However, part of this expectation is players like Longo. If he or any other top prospect needs more time in AAA, let him have it. If keeping him and others in AAA until June to make it easier on the payroll in 2014, then it’s not on, as such old-thinking will keep the Rays in the cellar indefinitely.
The goal is not to contend in 2014, the goal is to continue to improve in 2008, and keep improving. The normal business model of successful teams is: win games, fill seats, sell gear, make more $$, pay higher salaries for better players to win games, fill seats, etc.
I am concerned that Rays fan-dom is buying into the concept of helping the owners keep salaries down, instead of insisting they pay players and field a competitive team. This is the National Past Time. Although salaries are running amock, and building through the farm is the right way to go, all this talk of holding down a player, a Tampa Ray star, for another year is pathetic. Sorry, but it is.
March 22nd, 2008 at 10:49 pm
I have to give Rays credit. They did increase their 2008 payroll to about $40 million which is a lot more to what they paid in 2007. I can see they are trying. I truly think the Rays have a great shot at finishing in fourth place because the Orioles are going to be horrible.
March 25th, 2008 at 7:31 am
Here’s a scenario for you. The business geniuses keep Longoria down until say July. They’ve already pissed him off plenty. Read his WORDS. Rookies who get sent down don’t refer obliquely to “contracts.” They mumble some bs about doing what’s good for the team.
OK, you talk about ~84 wins being meaningless but 84 is a reasonable mean. There’s always variance around that mean which suggests a non-trivial chance of making 88-89-90 wins.
Take a look at the Sawx and Rudy Giuliani’s Girls. Both have a lot of hitting but plenty of question marks in starting pitching, especially Boston. Sorry, but Dice-Beckett-Lester-Wakefield-Bucholz doesn’t really do it for me, especially if Beckett’s ouchy beyond just blisters.
Fine. Let’s say Hughes and Ian Kennedy work out great for Yankees and they run off and hide. Detroit and Angels as well. Longoria rots at Durham until July and the wild-card win totals look like this: BOSTON-87, CLEVELAND-86, MINNESOTA-84, SEATTLE-84 and…TAMPA BAY-85.
So, what have the Rays given up in exchange for gaming Longoria under my scenario? A great shot at the wild card because I KNOW Longoria over Aybar over half a season is worth more than 2 wins. Longoria gets screwed out of his arb eligibility and plays for the minimum (which I know all fans would love but that’s another story). for the next three years telling Friedman to take his 6-year $30mm contract and shove it up his ass.
Come arbitration, Longoria asks for and gets $22mm for one year.
Front office better hope that the team makes the playoffs before Longoria’s arb-eligible, because if they don’t they can’t sell tickets or food and drinks and merchandise and have given up not only the chance of building A BRAND but also have given up the chance of taking full advantage of the Veeck double-tax write-off. And they’ve alienated Longoria. And they have to pay through the nose to keep him.
Their payroll is very low. Why be so stingy? They are acting like old ladies at the supermarket checkout with change purses and not like CEOs.
I hate to break it to all the geniuses out there in sports fan land but running a baseball FRANCHISE is nothing like balancing your family checkbook.
The Yankees and Sox aren’t going away. They have already built INTERNATIONAL BRANDS. This year’s team is the Ray’s best shot ever. Why screw it up?
March 25th, 2008 at 8:00 am
I’m actually really into this saving Sternberg money thing instead of going for the playoffs. I’ve got a few other ideas to share:
1) Make Andy Sonnastine a mop-up man instead of the #3 starter. This will keep his asking price very low. Sign him as cheaply as possible each year. Make him last man out of the pen for all his pre-arb years, beat him in arbitration, giving him maybe $2mm. THEN make him the #3 starter.
2) Watch out for Carlos Pena problems on the horizon. He’s a 29-year old power hitter and the power’s not going away. Run out whatever’s left on the contract, maybe platooning him to reduce his value to nothing. And then re-sign him for LESS than he’s getting now and start him at 1B again.
3) David Price. Do whatever it takes to keep him injured and valueless for as long as possible. Then see if he’s any good. If he is, pay him $1mm and fight him hard in arbitration the following year. If he’s no good? Just release him.
4) Do the Pena number on Crawford, Bartlett and Iwamura, too.
84 wins? 78 wins? 57 wins? What’s the difference so long as every penny possible is saved.
I don’t live in the US. Would someone please explain to me why baseball fans HATE baseball PLAYERS but love baseball OWNERS?
March 27th, 2008 at 6:02 am
Sorry, friend, but you got this one all wrong. Everybody from CC on down was intent on bagging out ’cause the team wasn’t committed to winning. New management said that it was changing course and wanted to win. J. Gomes’ recent comment puts the slap to the face of management’s “winning” pronouncement. Last thing you want to do is dispirit the team and give them reason to want to bag out when their contracts end. Then there’s the personal matter of your friend and peer being squezed out of money and, more importantly, playing time that can never be replaced. And how much do they save? Longoria has the same agent as Tulo, and Tulo didn’t break the Rockies’ bank in signing his extension. Re the chances for making the playoffs, well, Schilling is out, Lester was rocky, and so continuing injury with Beckett and the Sox are in trouble. Without a healthy Petitte and the youngsters living up to their hype, the Yanks are in trouble. Re the Tigers, well, nice to add Cabrera and Renteria, but it wasn’t a lack of hitting that cost them a spot last year, but pitching, and they just got worse with Mr. Willis in their rotation. So a longshot to win a berth in the postseason, but not entirely impossible. The increase in fan support and accompanying dollars spent on things Rays related would have paid for Longoria’s “service time”. Some who signed up with soaring expectations might now leave and never come back. Leaving us with the fitting conclusion, to wit, the Rays broke rules 1 and 2 of business, never dispirit your work force and never alienate your customer base.
March 27th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
Totally agree, Paul. Funny thing, the Tigers had shed payroll, gotten to the rock-bottom but began building up through youth and with a still small payroll in 2006 were they worried about gaming Justin Verlander out of a year? The hell they were.
Now, they’ve got a fan base, a good core, the beginnings of a brand, access to the Veeck write-off, and can really go for it like with Cabrera, Renteria and Willis.
And as for Justin Verlander? What’s the big deal? Isn’t a happy Verlander with a couple of Cys in his right arm a good thing no matter when he’s arb-eligible? With the write-off, if gross profits are high enough, he’s playing for free anyway.
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