MVN - Most Valuable Network

Who will still be on the mound?--Tommy Rancel

6 Guys, 1 spot: A Closer Look at the Kazmir Decision

Privately the Rays have been having this conversation for weeks. Who goes when Scott Kazmir returns? Normally, in past years there would be a glaring choice for the Rays and the decision wouldn’t have much thought behind it. However, this isn’t an ordinary Rays season.

At first glance, someone would immediately say “Kurt Birkins, Kurt Birkins”, but Birkins won’t be on the roster past Thursday when Al Reyes is activated. That leaves us with six candidates (Andy Sonnanstines, Jason Hammel, Edwin Jackson, J.P. Howell, Gary Glover, Scott Dohmann) for one spot.  There are a few ways the Rays can go here:

• They can simply option Andy Sonnanstine to AAA, insert Kazmir and leave the rest of the team intact. A trip to AAA would do nothing for Sonnanstine, and out of all the candidates he has the lowest OBP against opposing batters. However, his VORP is the least. It seems unlikely, but wouldn’t be a shock either.
• The Rays could DFA Hammel or Jackson and Kazmir could take that spot. This is not happening and, barring a trade by this weekend, Hammel and Jackson will be on the team.
• They could also DFA Gary Glover or Scott Dohmann. One of three starters(Jackson, Hammel, or Sonnantines) would move to the bullpen as the long reliever. While this is a little more likely than the option above it is also highly unlikely. With bullpens struggling around the league, someone surely would take either one of the Rays veterans, especially when they are putting up the kind of numbers these guys are. Quote from Joe Maddon:

“There’s no doubt in my mind, you would loose the guys without options if you were attempting to send them down,” Maddon said. “You would lose these guys. They’re pitching at a very high level and they would be very attractive to a lot of people.”

• The Rays can move one of the three to the bullpen again and option J.P. Howell to AAA.  While I don’t agree with it personally, this seems to make the most sense.  The Rays used Sonnanstine in relief in the spring and it would seem like he would be the likely choice to replace J.P. has the long man in the pen. Hammel and Jackson have both been tried as relievers and failed. Howell has pitched well enough to stay on the team in either of the other 10 seasons, but the Rays won’t lose a pitcher on waivers this way and Howell can work on different relief situations in Durham.  Again, I’m not saying it’s a popular move, but it makes sense at this point.
• Another thing to note is all three starters will make a start before Kazmir is activated and if one struggles(especially Sonnanstine) it could make the decision a little easier.

Tommy (OPS,FL): Who do you think gets dropped from the Rays rotation upon Kaz’s return? Sonnanstine?

Marc Normandin: I’ve seen this question a lot in my queue, and after asking a friend of mine who’s a Rays fan, they said Sonnanstine has an option left, so he may be the odd man out. Maybe you guys don’t want to pick him up today

• Rob Neyer gave his opinion is his chat today:

John (St. Paul, MN): With Kazmir returning this week, who should get dropped from the starting rotation?

Rob Neyer: That’s a tough one, huh? Garza’s pitched the worst, but he’s made just one start since coming off the DL. The obvious choice is Sonnanstine, except I still think he’s going to be good.

A Quick look at some numbers:

This entry was posted on Tuesday, April 29th, 2008 at 1:57 pm and is filed under MVN Rays. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.