MVN - Most Valuable Network

C.C. Sabathia--dethtrip99(flickr)

Is C.C. Sabathia Worth the Risk? Is There a Better Option?

Freddy Garcia--phillymad63(flickr)

Everywhere you see a rumor about C.C. Sabathia, the Rays are mentioned as a “player” in the sweepstakes.  While Sabathia is a great pitcher, and will be for a few more years, it won’t be in Tampa Bay. Even if the Rays were to acquire C.C. it would be strictly on a two month rental. I’ve heard claims of Sabathia wanting anywhere from $130 to $150 million for six or seven years and that is certainly out of the Rays price range. Sure, the Rays would get two sandwich draft picks if Sabathia comes and goes, but they’d would have to give up two or three blue chip prospects for Sabathia and there is no guarantee that the potential draft picks will pan out and turn into blue chippers(just see last year’s 2nd rd pick Will Kline).  With all that being said I was wondering, if the Rays do get Sabathia will he be the Yankee or Red Sox slayer everybody is making him out to be? The answer is not likely. Of the teams who I consider AL playoff contenders: Boston, New York, Anaheim, Oakland, Minnesota, Chicago(holding off on Detroit for now), Sabathia isn’t all that great. Here are the numbers:

Sabathia is ok against the Red Sox, but is just down right terrible against the Yankees. The Rays will see these teams a combined 12 times in September, and history is saying Sabathia won’t give the Rays the edge they need. There’s a big risk in trading for Sabathia because you’re risking two or three projected studs for two months of a guy who isn’t exactly Curt Schilling or John Smoltz in the clutch.

There is another SP option out there, and while the move is risky, it is definitely less long term gamble and could be potentially better down the stretch. That option is the recovering Freddy Garcia.

Garcia is coming off shoulder surgery and is scheduled to audition for teams before the July 31st deadline.  Garcia says ”I feel like I have a new shoulder” and could be pitching in the big leagues by August. Of course with Garcia there is a huge injury concern and the Rays would have to outbid other teams, but Tampa Bay is a hot story and I’m sure Garcia would like the publicity. The Rays wouldn’t have to commit to a contract after this year nor would they have to give up prospects like Wade Davis, Reid Brignac or Desmond Jennings. The Rays would keep the farm intact and Garcia has a better track record against the six contenders I named earlier.

Garcia is working out in Miami now and will hold an audition in about three weeks. At age 33, he could also bring that “veteran presence” that is currently missing from the Rays rotation.

As I mentioned above, the Rays will play the Red Sox and Yankees a combined 12 times in September. Six games on the road and six games at the Trop. Here is how the two pitchers match up in these venues.

Sabathia would give the Rays the edge in Fenway, but is just brutal in the Bronx. Garcia is just so-so in Boston and New York, but has better post-season success. In nine playoff starts, Garcia is 6-2 with a 3.11 ERA. Sabathia, on the other hand is just 2-2 with a 7.17 ERA in four post season starts. Garcia also brings a World Series ring and was the winning pitcher in the White Sox World Series clincher.

So before you anoint C.C. Sabathia as the man who will lead the Rays to the promised land, ask yourself this; Is it worth it to mortgage the farm for two month of possible fools gold? Or is it better to give Garcia a chance, like Troy Percival, and see if Andrew Friedman can strike lightning in a bottle once again.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, July 1st, 2008 at 2:02 pm and is filed under MVN Rays. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.